Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 5

[Sky04]

Bleh, I really hope we find a way to bump Cirelli back to 3C.

Again, this is why I'd prefer Bertuzzi over Guentzel. He would come significantly cheaper, which would allow us to address one more roster hole.

Have you seen oth of them play? Bertuzzi has some raw skill but he'll pull a highlight reel then go cold for 5 games. Look at his career stats, they in no way reflect the amount of skill he has, he's clearly missing something upstairs.

Guentzel is extremely consistent which is what we're missing in our lineup, watching him with Crosby and one of his biggest skillsets is reading and a getting a good shot off of unsuspecting passes/plays, I'm assuming JBB is tired of watching some high reel Kucherov passes go astray.

 

[DFC]

Have you seen oth of them play? Bertuzzi has some raw skill but he'll pull a highlight reel then go cold for 5 games. Look at his career stats, they in no way reflect the amount of skill he has, he's clearly missing something upstairs.

Guentzel is extremely consistent which is what we're missing in our lineup, watching him with Crosby and one of his biggest skillsets is reading and a getting a good shot off of unsuspecting passes/plays, I'm assuming JBB is tired of watching some high reel Kucherov passes go astray.

I've watched Bertuzzi quite a bit. I watch a lot of Leaf games. He had a slow start but found his game like 30 or so in. There is a reason why Leaf fans would like to keep him. What I really want is he attacks, and I think his game will translate well in the playoffs, which it did the year Boston rented him.

Guentzel is clearly the better player. But he will also be more expensive, thus leaving us less money for one more bit of depth.

Again, if Stamkos leaves, Guentzel is the better choice because you have a shot at replacing those goals. If Stamkos stays, I would rather take Bertuzzi, if he would come here. Stamkos keeps our PP tops in the league, and Bertuzzi adds 5v5 goals, with a couple million left over.

 

[TheSchmidt]

still about $1.4 over the cap. tough to fill those last two forward spots. maybe guentzel will get 500k-1m less than what i think. maybe they'll go the trade route for one of those last two forward spots

 

[Flat Ronnie]

View attachment 889842

still about $1.4 over the cap. tough to fill those last two forward spots. maybe guentzel will get 500k-1m less than what i think. maybe they'll go the trade route for one of those last two forward spots

Imagine letting Stamkos walk for Anthony Mantha

 

[Zwui21]

If we actually get Guentzel and he plays with Kuch, Kuch gonna hit 160 points next season lmao

 

[Sky04]

I've watched Bertuzzi quite a bit. I watch a lot of Leaf games. He had a slow start but found his game like 30 or so in. There is a reason why Leaf fans would like to keep him. What I really want is he attacks, and I think his game will translate well in the playoffs, which it did the year Boston rented him.

Guentzel is clearly the better player. But he will also be more expensive, thus leaving us less money for one more bit of depth.

Again, if Stamkos leaves, Guentzel is the better choice because you have a shot at replacing those goals. If Stamkos stays, I would rather take Bertuzzi, if he would come here. Stamkos keeps our PP tops in the league, and Bertuzzi adds 5v5 goals, with a couple million left over.

You need less depth if you're top guy is producing well though....Guentzel could near double Bertuzzis production for what? 3m more? How is that not worth it. It's not like Bertuzzi is playing with more talent here than he is on the Leafs.

 

[DFC]

You need less depth if you're top guy is producing well though....Guentzel could near double Bertuzzis production for what? 3m more? How is that not worth it. It's not like Bertuzzi is playing with more talent here than he is on the Leafs.

I think Bertuzzi would be a better scorer here than with the Leafs. It took him a while to settle down there. Well, maybe high 40s in points. 45-55. I don't think it would be near double.

I would take Bertuzzi + Depth piece over Guentzel. Unless we lose Stamkos. Then I like Guentzel more, because we will need to replace the goals.

If Stamkos + Guentzel is possible, I think Guentzel will cut into Stamkos's scoring a lot. I think we would still be a better scoring team than Stamkos + Bertuzzi, but again, I really like Bertuzzi's tenacity, and we would be adding another depth player in that scenario. Might not score as much, but the difference is only a handful of goals, and I think it's a better team overall.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Who would be better than or = Stamkos for as cheap? Thats where my brain gets stuck. Seems odd we’d throw a 40 goal scorer away if he wants 5 mil. I get the age concerns but still. Like, we are all saying Guentzel is probably going to get 7-8 mil. He hasn’t scored 40 to my knowledge.

They probably like Guentzel’s play 5v5 and without the puck more than Stamkos’. That was one of our biggest overall weaknesses last season. Plus he’s five years younger so he’s less of a gamble than hoping Stamkos somehow doesn’t fall off a cliff in a year or two and/or spends half the season on IR due to his age catching up and we’d end up stuck with his contract.

So in essence they say we don’t need the #1 powerplay in the league anymore because we’d be better 5v5. Which makes sense in case refs swallow their whistle in the playoffs. And it’s a plan for 4-5 years instead of 1-2 years.

PS: Guentzel has scored 40 goals twice in his career.

All this is out of the window in case Guentzel decides to sign elsewhere. Stamkos might be less willing to talk to JBB after the recent move. Which tells me there has to be some kind of agreement in place already with Guentzel or a lot of confidence that we’re an attractive enough destination for him especially with the recent increase in cap space.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

They probably like Guentzel’s play 5v5 and without the puck more than Stamkos’. That was one of our biggest overall weaknesses last season. Plus he’s five years younger so he’s less of a gamble than hoping Stamkos somehow doesn’t fall off a cliff in a year or two and/or spends half the season on IR due to his age catching up and we’d end up stuck with his contract.

So in essence they say we don’t need the #1 powerplay in the league anymore because we’d be better 5v5. Which makes sense in case refs swallow their whistle in the playoffs. And it’s a plan for 4-5 years instead of 1-2 years.

PS: Guentzel has scored 40 goals twice in his career.

All this is out of the window in case Guentzel decides to sign elsewhere. Stamkos might be less willing to talk to JBB after the recent move. Which tells me there has to be some kind of agreement in place already with Guentzel.

But the choice isn't between Guentzel or Stamkos now. We have the money for both. The question still remains: who else is better than Stamkos for his price?

 

[LightningStrikes]

But the choice isn't between Guentzel or Stamkos now. We have the money for both. The question still remains: who else is better than Stamkos for his price?

$8M (Guentzel) + $5M (Stamkos, if that’s even the number he’s looking for) = $13M is still more than we made room for yesterday with the trades (around $11.5M). Plus there are still other holes on the roster to fill with our current cap space of $16M: get a replacement for Jeannot, re-sign Moser, sign/promote a 7th defenseman plus a 13rd forward.

And let’s say 8x5 is what Stamkos wants. JBB still needs to think about how he’d fit that contract in say year 5 of that deal when Stamkos is likely playing 10mins and scores 10-15 goals on PP2.

 

[Todd1a]

If we actually get Guentzel and he plays with Kuch, Kuch gonna hit 160 points next season lmao

And kuch is going to hit 200 points lol

 

[HoseEmDown]

But the choice isn't between Guentzel or Stamkos now. We have the money for both. The question still remains: who else is better than Stamkos for his price?

The issue isn't if you can find someone better than Stamkos for less next year because you aren't going to. The issue is do you want to pay Stamkos 5M at the age of 38, 39 or 40? If Stamkos wanted a 3 year deal at 5M per it would have been done yesterday. Stamkos wants that probably for 6 or more years which is where BriseBois isn't budging.

Stamkos is still producing but you can see that his play is already slipping. His ES production has been slowing dropping the past few seasons, his puck possession numbers were barely better than Sheary and worse than Jeannot last year. BriseBois can see what he will become and he's offering him not for next season but for those rough years. Stamkos needs to also come off his position some if he wants BriseBois to try to come off his.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

The issue isn't if you can find someone better than Stamkos for less next year because you aren't going to. The issue is do you want to pay Stamkos 5M at the age of 38, 39 or 40? If Stamkos wanted a 3 year deal at 5M per it would have been done yesterday. Stamkos wants that probably for 6 or more years which is where BriseBois isn't budging.

Stamkos is still producing but you can see that his play is already slipping. His ES production has been slowing dropping the past few seasons, his puck possession numbers were barely better than Sheary and worse than Jeannot last year. BriseBois can see what he will become and he's offering him not for next season but for those rough years. Stamkos needs to also come off his position some if he wants BriseBois to try to come off his.

This was actually opposite of what was reported. It was reported that JBB wanted a long term deal to lower the AAV.

 

[Soul Assumption]

Thoughts? I don't know about Sprong and Kubalik, maybe there are better free agents or roster players from the Cirelli trade.
The point is that by trading Cirelli you can sign Guentzel, Stamkos AND RD

 

[HoseEmDown]

This was actually opposite of what was reported. It was reported that JBB wanted a long term deal to lower the AAV.

He wants to lower the AAV because it gives us more cap now and it's easier to work around Stamkos at 3M than at 5 or 6M. I doubt Stamkos is only looking for a 3 year deal like I suggested, he's gonna want term. So BriseBois will give him term but at a much lower number than what Stamkos thinks he's worth. Stamkos is thinking of his current worth and BriseBois his future worth. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but I'm sure we won't and Stamkos will sign a deal like the Killorn or Palat one where we are glad we didn't give that out.

 

[Zwui21]

He wants to lower the AAV because it gives us more cap now and it's easier to work around Stamkos at 3M than at 5 or 6M. I doubt Stamkos is only looking for a 3 year deal like I suggested, he's gonna want term. So BriseBois will give him term but at a much lower number than what Stamkos thinks he's worth. Stamkos is thinking of his current worth and BriseBois his future worth. Maybe they'll come to an agreement but I'm sure we won't and Stamkos will sign a deal like the Killorn or Palat one where we are glad we didn't give that out.

Totally agree.
And I agree with JBB's approach on the matter, he seems to be looking at the bigger picture without letting emotional attachments to players stand in the way of putting on the ice the best team both short term and long term.

If the goal is to be the most competitive we can, for as long as possible, JBB is doing the right thing not caving in to pay Stamkos more.
And it's no secret JBB has always seen Stamkos as the expendable core piece, especially since his 5v5 game tanked.

 

[Zwui21]

...let's play the "imagine" game for a second.

Imagine if we would have been able to get Hanifin at the trade deadline, and now after the Sergy trade we'd add Guentzel.
Damn.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I was reading yesterday somewhere that insiders believe upward to 75-90% of the top FAs know where they are going to sign already. Pretty wild.

Makes me think we have a framework already in place with Guentzel and potentially others.

 

[Rschmitz]

Bleh, I really hope we find a way to bump Cirelli back to 3C.

Again, this is why I'd prefer Bertuzzi over Guentzel. He would come significantly cheaper, which would allow us to address one more roster hole.

Cirelli is another Sergachev situation where we are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole

 

[flying squirrel]

But the choice isn't between Guentzel or Stamkos now. We have the money for both. The question still remains: who else is better than Stamkos for his price?

Exactly, if money being reporter is true. Signing Stamkos at that price seems to be an easy choice, right? One has to ask, what else is driving this GM then? BriseBois is risking Lightning reputation, team chemistry, and much more with his moves last 3 years., And for what? So a GM can maybe say at GM's parties...."This is my team, built my way, my decisions, etc.". While BriseBois looks around room to see where Yzerman is standing? Who knows, but BriseBois choice to not sign Stamkos at that price is suspect. Thanks to all posters who post team cap situation tables/info to what team might look like. Those are very helpful and appreciated.... :

For those who say in 3 or 4 years, what will Stamkos be?

• Shoot, what will alot of pieces on Lightning be in 3-5 yrs? This matters....
• Hedman, McD, Cernak, and other forwards will be close to where Stamkos is at right now age wise? After Serg's exit, winning right now is even more so....
• Will it even matter in 3-4 years, what Stamkos game is or isn't? Especially if cap continues to grow like this season, that 4-5 million will be even less of burden and not what keeps Lightning from contending.
• Though GM's plan was to win right now while Kuch, Vasy, Point, and others are in prime.
• This was motor and reasoning to why Lightning kept giving up farm for this or that player lately. Wasn't it?
• How does letting Stamkos, who scored 100 points 2 yrs ago and 40 goals last season, help with that plan of winning right now? Especially if rumored contract cost is true.
• But instead of signing decent valued deal, GM is going to let another Lightning legend walk away for free. Then sign huge contract that puts Lightning right back in depth hell afterwards?
• Plus, GM did no favors for traded players either, where trade cost an arm, leg, and bonus body-parts. (Stamkos replacement will face same fate: hope I'm way wrong but afraid fans will want pound of flesh here too). Bringing in another high priced contract, on a team loaded with high priced contracts, is not what's needed.
• Crapping on Stamkos, who took team deal after team deal his whole career but this is his reward? Our house is quite ashamed who Lightning are now after years of being proud of Lightning's treatment of players/fans.
• GM is killing Lightning organization reputation that took years to build. There's more to a winning cultural than what some stat sheet says. Lightning will end up with mercenary type players, who will quit at first sign of troubled waters. Hired help usually does this more than not. Many players will give type of effort we witnessed in first round within this new culture. Anyone supporting how this GM operates last 3 years, can't complain when future players stick it to this organization with a.... "Me first attitude"

Some things aren't as simple as X's and O's, stats, and such. GM behavior is #1 BS, and our house understood tough choices had to be made with flat-cap timing. But choice to treat players with so much disrespect, did not have to be part of that equation. Did it? Everyone of those Lightning players deserved, earned, and should've gotten much better treatment! How dare this GM talk about what this or that player earn or deserves. Screw him..... Especially after causing an environment where Stamkos and others risked futures. While at same time, giving new players respect not earned(GM divided this lockeroom, it shows) Doesn't matter what BriseBois does, signs, or what success could happen now. Hard to enjoy all that with so much poison within drink: Suppose it's like going to an amusement park on a raining day!

 

[Zwui21]

Interesting article on Projected Cap Hit vs Projected Goals Above Replacement for the 2024 UFAs (and RFAs too).
Matt Roy, William Carrier and Anthony Mantha among the best in this analysis.

Evolving-Hockey

evolving-hockey.com

 

[ccman68]

one thing i wonder is how much money we are gonna need to give moser... jbb was calling him a top 4 D so good luck giving him bottom pair money after that

 

[DFC]

Cirelli is another Sergachev situation where we are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole

It's not quite so bad. With Cirelli, there is at least the opportunity for him to earn his money. It's not so much that HE NEEDS pp time to do it. But yeah, in general. I still feel like if he's hitting 45 points and shutting down the other team's best guys, it's not bad. The problem last year, to me, was more on the shut down side.

 

[Zwui21]

one thing i wonder is how much money we are gonna need to give moser... jbb was calling him a top 4 D so good luck giving him bottom pair money after that

Projections I saw were something like 4Mx4years, 3M for shorter deal?
Hopefully we can get that number down with one of our bridge deals-i'llpayyoulater

 

[DFC]

one thing i wonder is how much money we are gonna need to give moser... jbb was calling him a top 4 D so good luck giving him bottom pair money after that

He's restricted though, so we have a lot of leverage. I think we bridge him.