2023-2024 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Mike Liut]

I have a hard time believing this team will be any better next year. The players we want to move, nobody wants. And the 16th pick wont be a difference make more than likely. We’ll see what Army does, but I’m not too optimistic we’ll be any better. Maybe in 2025 we will.

 

[Mike Liut]

I hope Bolduc and Dean are on the opening roster and play every game. I like both

 

[simon IC]

I have a hard time believing this team will be any better next year. The players we want to move, nobody wants. And the 16th pick wont be a difference make more than likely. We’ll see what Army does, but I’m not too optimistic we’ll be any better. Maybe in 2025 we will.

We could add Monahan as a 2C, that would help.

I hope Bolduc and Dean are on the opening roster and play every game. I like both

Me too.

 

[mk80]

I have a hard time believing this team will be any better next year. The players we want to move, nobody wants. And the 16th pick wont be a difference make more than likely. We’ll see what Army does, but I’m not too optimistic we’ll be any better. Maybe in 2025 we will.

It could make a difference, just not in terms of our prospect pool. I get the feeling that Armstrong might use a pick in that range as part of a trade for NHL ready talent, compared to the attitude last year where there was seemingly no way he was moving off #10 unless he had a significant offer.

 

[Brian39]

I wouldn't count on Hofer carrying the whole load and keeping up that level of play, although he could. I think he benefited a lot from Binnington's play and share of the load. Hofer was definitely a bright spot this season, and a reason for optimism for the future at that position.

But if Binnington had gone down, I think Hofer would have gotten chewed up a bit by the weight of the starts.

Over a large sample, I agree. Workload management is a very real skill that not too many rookie goalies possess.

But I read your 'multi-week' sentence as an injury as a 2-4 week hypothetical and I think that Hofer would have had a very reasonable chance of keeping the team somewhat afloat in that kind of sample size. We're 17 points up on the 5th-worst team in the league this year and I don't at all think that Hofer having to start 8 or 9 games in a 10 game stretch (instead of 2-4) means that we're going 0-10 in that sample.

I think we absolutely would have left points on the table compared to having the Binner/Hofer tandem, but it's probably just a handful. I believe our best 10 game stretch was 8-2, then we had (again, I believe) two other stretches of 7 wins in 10 games). Assuming Binner goes down just before one of those, I think the 'low end' estimate is for Hofer to go 3-5-1 with Zherenko/Subban dropping their game. That's still not enough to put us right among the bottom feeders and I think it is very reasonable to expect that Hofer could have still banked us a few extra points beyond that record.

Hofer has gone 13-12-1 this year and I don't think 3 weeks with a starter's workload would have caused him to immediately fall apart. Now, a 2+ month injury to Binner. Yeah, that's the type of sustained workload where I think Hofer really could have struggled. That's one of the reasons I'm not too mad about Binner being too good for us to tank. I'm very happy with Hofer's workload this year from a development standpoint and Ii think it is really good for him that he wasn't getting thrown into too many games because the #1 couldn't get the job done.

Both goalies were simply too good for this team to find the basement and there are worse situations than that since Binner still has 3 more seasons under contract and Hofer has 4 more years of team control.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I have a hard time believing this team will be any better next year. The players we want to move, nobody wants. And the 16th pick wont be a difference make more than likely. We’ll see what Army does, but I’m not too optimistic we’ll be any better. Maybe in 2025 we will.

I mostly agree with this, but how many times have we seen Armstrong make gold out of a shit sandwich, even after everyone should know Doug is generally only in a trade to screw them all over? On April 9, 2024 I can't say it won't happen again.

But, to be materially better this roster is going to need a major overhaul. And/or, it's going to need serious overperformance up and down the roster. That is asking a hell of a lot. It's pushing all the way to "everything goes right" with no margin for error and no further upside. And, it's probably a last hurrah for all the 30+ guys ex-Binnington before their performance falls off for good. I don't think Armstrong has that much magic available with this roster.

 

[jjniner]

I don’t see Buch in the lineup next year unless he is signed. Last thing we want is him to be in his final year and we are sitting third in the conference playoff picture, not willing to move him for fear of reprisal from us fans. Then he walks.

 

[kimzey59]

I don’t see Buch in the lineup next year unless he is signed. Last thing we want is him to be in his final year and we are sitting third in the conference playoff picture, not willing to move him for fear of reprisal from us fans. Then he walks.

He's got another year on his contract.
We're not going to hold a player out for "trade related reasons" for a whole year just because he's a pending UFA.
That's straight up crazy talk.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He's got another year on his contract.
We're not going to hold a player out for "trade related reasons" for a whole year just because he's a pending UFA.
That's straight up crazy talk.

i think you are misinterpreting his post. i believe he is saying he thinks if we don't sign him we will deal him over summer.

 

[Xerloris]

I mostly agree with this, but how many times have we seen Armstrong make gold out of a shit sandwich, even after everyone should know Doug is generally only in a trade to screw them all over? On April 9, 2024 I can't say it won't happen again.

But, to be materially better this roster is going to need a major overhaul. And/or, it's going to need serious overperformance up and down the roster. That is asking a hell of a lot. It's pushing all the way to "everything goes right" with no margin for error and no further upside. And, it's probably a last hurrah for all the 30+ guys ex-Binnington before their performance falls off for good. I don't think Armstrong has that much magic available with this roster.

I think if we can snag Monohan as a 2c we'd be considerably better. That's not even a sweeping change. If we could just have a 2nd line to take the pressure off of the Thomas line it would help significantly.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I think if we can snag Monohan as a 2c we'd be considerably better. That's not even a sweeping change. If we could just have a 2nd line to take the pressure off of the Thomas line it would help significantly.

the problem is that we significantly overachieved this year, largely due to goaltending but also i think luck. we should expect some reversion to mean next year, so we are likely starting from a point where we are about 10th worst team in league or worse with injuries. adding guy like monahan will make us better than that, but i don't think he moves the needle to playoffs. would need a lot more good to happen.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Ignoring that I hate "reversion to the mean" for a myriad of reasons that I've discussed here and elsewhere: the problem you run into when you play that game is that you can explain away anything good/bad to land on whatever future outcome you want. Goaltending might be worse. Forwards and defense might be better. Neighbors might fall off from this season. Everything might come together like 2021-22. No one really knows.

The best predictor we have of future experience is past experience, and it's not even that great for the most part. [Discussion on that omitted for another time.] And, for a lot of guys, there's not a lot of reason to expect you'll see better. If anything, you'll see about what you saw this season, minor moves either way. That means needing Thomas to improve on 24-57-81, Kyrou to be more like 37-45-82, Buchnevich go back toward if not exceed 30-46-76, and Neighbours to at least replicate if not improve on 27 goals this season. And, others to get dragged along with it.

IMO, the team needs 2/3rds of a 2nd line and a true 1D. That probably means a 3rd line of Schenn, Hayes and Saad and then Toropchenko-Walker-whoever on the 4th. [Not Sundqvist to start, he'll need months to get back up to speed] No, that means no room for Dean and Bolduc. I don't know what to say there, I wouldn't throw them on the 2nd line and tell them to sink or swim. Or, maybe you do and you let them learn, but for a team that's not in a rebuild, is currently in a refocus, I feel like that's a great way to end up picking in the top-10.

 

[PocketNines]

Ignoring that I hate "reversion to the mean" for a myriad of reasons that I've discussed here and elsewhere: the problem you run into when you play that game is that you can explain away anything good/bad to land on whatever future outcome you want. Goaltending might be worse. Forwards and defense might be better. Neighbors might fall off from this season. Everything might come together like 2021-22. No one really knows.

The best predictor we have of future experience is past experience, and it's not even that great for the most part. [Discussion on that omitted for another time.] And, for a lot of guys, there's not a lot of reason to expect you'll see better. If anything, you'll see about what you saw this season, minor moves either way. That means needing Thomas to improve on 24-57-81, Kyrou to be more like 37-45-82, Buchnevich go back toward if not exceed 30-46-76, and Neighbours to at least replicate if not improve on 27 goals this season. And, others to get dragged along with it.

IMO, the team needs 2/3rds of a 2nd line and a true 1D. That probably means a 3rd line of Schenn, Hayes and Saad and then Toropchenko-Walker-whoever on the 4th. [Not Sundqvist to start, he'll need months to get back up to speed] No, that means no room for Dean and Bolduc. I don't know what to say there, I wouldn't throw them on the 2nd line and tell them to sink or swim. Or, maybe you do and you let them learn, but for a team that's not in a rebuild, is currently in a refocus, I feel like that's a great way to end up picking in the top-10.

The first paragraph is an important one, it captures a lot of exasperation

 

[Celtic Note]

Moving this hear as opposed to a GDT.

On the topic of +/- :

We had 8 guys to start last night in the plus column. One of those was Bortuzzo. Another is Scandella.

Tucker and Peru are plus guys. This might explode heads.

That makes 4 guys out of 8 that haven’t played critical roles that are plus players. Yikes!

We have 19 minus players at the start of last game.

Krug leds the pack at a stellar -31. Followed by Schenn at -23 and Neighbours at -16.

Kyrou is currently at -10 for the season. So a ton better than last year, but certainly room for improvement.

Over the last two years our worst plus minus offenders are Krug (-57), Schenn (-49), Kyrou(-48) and Neighbours(-35).

Neighbours has been relatively stapled to Schenn and he his still growing into his game, so he gets some level of pass on the heavy criticism.

If we included PPP in the +\- stat then this would be the line:
Krug - 35
Schenn - 22
Kyrou - 5
Neighbours - 19

We clearly need better from guys getting big minutes. It will be interesting to see if Kyrou continues in the right direction. Will Neighbours be better if he is paired with a center other than Schenn? Will he continue to round out his game and make improvements on that number?

Next year will be interesting to see how those two do. I am leaving Krug and Schenn off the list, as I feel pretty confident that the trend line for them will continue, but would be happy to see improvements there. I could see Schenn’s numbers improving if he is moved to wing, where I think he should be.

The next tier of bad +/- guys are Blais, Vrana, Sunny and McGing. Aside from Sunny I think we can move on from all of those guys.

I hope this doesn’t come off as thinking +/- is some great, end-all, be-all stat. I really don’t think that. It is more to illustrate where we ended up last season and who to keep an eye on next season.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The way I view the top 9 is this:

1st line caliber: Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou
2nd line caliber: Neighbours
3rd line caliber: Schenn, Saad, Hayes

With Bolduc and hopefully a 2nd line acquisition, I think we can round out an improved group, maybe that can push us into the playoffs, but the goal is to develop Bolduc. We won't have an ideal 2nd line, but I do think we can juggle the lines to create a pretty balanced group. Thomas can elevate inferior players, and maybe that 2nd line C plays with Kyrou and Buchnevich, and we have a pretty solid top 6.

I do think Schenn and Saad can still play up the lineup, they just won't be the main drivers on the line.

 

[Majorityof1]

The way I view the top 9 is this:

1st line caliber: Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou
2nd line caliber: Neighbours
3rd line caliber: Schenn, Saad, Hayes

With Bolduc and hopefully a 2nd line acquisition, I think we can round out an improved group, maybe that can push us into the playoffs, but the goal is to develop Bolduc. We won't have an ideal 2nd line, but I do think we can juggle the lines to create a pretty balanced group. Thomas can elevate inferior players, and maybe that 2nd line C plays with Kyrou and Buchnevich, and we have a pretty solid top 6.

I do think Schenn and Saad can still play up the lineup, they just won't be the main drivers on the line.

3 year average point per 82 for those 3rd liners.

Schenn -61 (44 this season)
Saad - 45 (41 this year)
Hayes - 45 (29 this year)

None of those 3 year averages are 3rd line, especially when you factor in Saad's D. Hayes and Schenn are having down years and maybe that is age, but it also might be a down year. Hayes has had pretty standard 3rd line usage and linemates.

My point is I don't think we lack a 2nd line. We lack an elite 2nd line. But if we gad an ELITE 1st line, we'd be fine in the 2nd line. We also lack a play driver on the 2nd line. And our 2nd line has been streaky, we could use some consistency. But saying 38 point, poor defensively Neighbours is a 2nd liner while 41 point solid D Saad is a 3rd liner doesn't make sense

 

[bleedblue1223]

If Hayes bounces back to his Philly production, if Schenn bounces back to 65+ point production, then we'll have a very good top 9 and should be a playoff team if we get similar goaltending. I'm not banking on either of those.

Part of Neighbours and Saad is projecting forward. Not that Saad declines, but I expect Neighbours to continue to grow.

 

[Majorityof1]

If Hayes bounces back to his Philly production, if Schenn bounces back to 65+ point production, then we'll have a very good top 9 and should be a playoff team if we get similar goaltending. I'm not banking on either of those.

Part of Neighbours and Saad is projecting forward. Not that Saad declines, but I expect Neighbours to continue to grow.

On a long enough timeline, everyone will regress how far out are those projections? There is more indications Neughbours will regress next year than Saad. Inflated shooting percentage, sophomore slump etc. Saad is streaky in season but consistent season to season.

Hayes will never put up Philly numbers here. We don't give him the ice time, PP time nor linemates.

If we improve our Ds ability to get the puck in the D zone and transition to the ozone, Schenn will improve. Thomas helps with that which is why he has success. Schenn does not.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Moving this hear as opposed to a GDT.

On the topic of +/- :

We had 8 guys to start last night in the plus column. One of those was Bortuzzo. Another is Scandella.

Tucker and Peru are plus guys. This might explode heads.

That makes 4 guys out of 8 that haven’t played critical roles that are plus players. Yikes!

We have 19 minus players at the start of last game.

Krug leds the pack at a stellar -31. Followed by Schenn at -23 and Neighbours at -16.

Kyrou is currently at -10 for the season. So a ton better than last year, but certainly room for improvement.

Over the last two years our worst plus minus offenders are Krug (-57), Schenn (-49), Kyrou(-48) and Neighbours(-35).

Neighbours has been relatively stapled to Schenn and he his still growing into his game, so he gets some level of pass on the heavy criticism.

If we included PPP in the +\- stat then this would be the line:
Krug - 35
Schenn - 22
Kyrou - 5
Neighbours - 19

We clearly need better from guys getting big minutes. It will be interesting to see if Kyrou continues in the right direction. Will Neighbours be better if he is paired with a center other than Schenn? Will he continue to round out his game and make improvements on that number?

Next year will be interesting to see how those two do. I am leaving Krug and Schenn off the list, as I feel pretty confident that the trend line for them will continue, but would be happy to see improvements there. I could see Schenn’s numbers improving if he is moved to wing, where I think he should be.

The next tier of bad +/- guys are Blais, Vrana, Sunny and McGing. Aside from Sunny I think we can move on from all of those guys.

I hope this doesn’t come off as thinking +/- is some great, end-all, be-all stat. I really don’t think that. It is more to illustrate where we ended up last season and who to keep an eye on next season.

I think it's more valuable to look at 5v5 goal differential vs straight up +/-. Kyrou is a great example - he's got a positive 5v5 GF/GA of 55/48 (+7). Krug has a 5v5 goal differential of 40/61 (-21) and Schenn is 42/50 (-8). Neighbors is 37/44 (-7). Saad is 46/52 (-6). I have more to add to this but want to respond to a different post so I'm going to simply leave this here to reference.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

3 year average point per 82 for those 3rd liners.

Schenn -61 (44 this season)
Saad - 45 (41 this year)
Hayes - 45 (29 this year)

None of those 3 year averages are 3rd line, especially when you factor in Saad's D. Hayes and Schenn are having down years and maybe that is age, but it also might be a down year. Hayes has had pretty standard 3rd line usage and linemates.

My point is I don't think we lack a 2nd line. We lack an elite 2nd line. But if we gad an ELITE 1st line, we'd be fine in the 2nd line. We also lack a play driver on the 2nd line. And our 2nd line has been streaky, we could use some consistency. But saying 38 point, poor defensively Neighbours is a 2nd liner while 41 point solid D Saad is a 3rd liner doesn't make sense

Saad has been atrocious this year on D. Like last two years Schenn level bad. Please see my above post.

Edit - in fact, Saad is our third worst forward in terms of GA/60. The only players worse then him are Dean (6 game sample size and a rookie) and Vrana (b/c duh). If you account for a reasonable level of minutes played (like 250 5v5 minutes, which equates to around 25ish GP for most players) he's THE WORST. Saad used to be a good defensive player. That has gone bye-bye this season and it's a huge reason why we've struggled.

Our second line has been abysmal this season in driving 5v5 results. Thomas, Kyrou, Buch, Schenn, Saad, and Neighbors are the top 6 in terms of TOI at 5v5, with Hayes lurking just behind Neighbors. When factoring in PP time, it becomes even more clear that our top 6 are the above mentioned players. Kyrou, Neighbors, and Saad are our top three 5v5 goal scorers (21, 18, 18 respectively, then it drops to 13 with Thomas), yet both Neighbors and Saad are outscored at 5v5, along with Schenn. In fact, the Saad/Schenn/Neighbors trio has outscored the Thomas/Kyrou/Buch trio at 5v5 by two goals if you're comparing individual numbers, yet all three of the Thomas/Kyrou/Buch trio is positive for 5v5 GF/GA and the Schenn/Saad/Neighbors trio is minus.

I would hard argue that our second line has been one of the most frustrating parts of our team this season. If we had competent 2nd line 5v5 play, especially defensively, we would probably be in a playoff spot. The Schenn/Saad/Neighbors trio is a big reason why we're struggling in the standings, even if Saad and Neighbors have put up nice offensive seasons.

 

[TheDizee]

If Hayes bounces back to his Philly production, if Schenn bounces back to 65+ point production, then we'll have a very good top 9 and should be a playoff team if we get similar goaltending. I'm not banking on either of those.

Part of Neighbours and Saad is projecting forward. Not that Saad declines, but I expect Neighbours to continue to grow.

hayes wont be a NHLer much longer.

schenn's day of putting up those point totals is behind him. he needs to embrace a role similar to what steen did during our cup run.

this team stinks and needs a massive rehaul on the blue line. no easy fix for this and we didnt tank so that will further slow the process.

 

[Mike Liut]

With the emergence of Neighbors and Bolduc, and with Snuggs, Dvo and Stenberg waiting in the wings, and add them to Thomas and Kyrou, and I think we are looking very promising in the next couple years. I’m still high on Dean too. Just need a 2c next year to be in the playoffs.

 

[MissouriMook]

Assuming we fill a need this summer and (theoretically) sign a guy like Monahan to a 3-4 year deal to fill the 2C void, we are potentially going to have a TON of Top 9 options by the time the 2026-2027 season rolls around. Obviously, things change and you might see someone from this group moved to address the defense, but you could have the following top 9 options then:

Current Top 9: Thomas, Buchnevich, Kyrou, Neighbours, Schenn (though could be a 4th liner by then)
Added Top 9: Monahan (or other 2C)
Likely Top 9: Bolduc, Dvorsky, Snuggerud
Possibly Top 9: Toropchenko, Dean, Stenberg

That's a total of 12 forwards who could reasonably be expected to play in the Top 9 by the 2026-2027 season, assuming they are still here and healthy. In this scenario, we've moved on from Saad and Hayes before or at the end of their current deals.

It wouldn't be the end of the world if any of Dean, Toropchenko and Stenberg are 4th liners at that time. In fact, that would be a pretty awesome 4th line AFAIC. Even better, that group probably costs you south of $50 million given the number of ELC and bridge deals you are likely to have in that group, and the cap will likely be in the upper $90 million range, leaving you plenty of cap space to fix the issues on D in that time frame, acknowledging that it is likely that someone from the group above has to be moved to make that happen. The near future may be kind of "meh", but I think this is going to be a fun and competitive team in the next 3-5 years.

 

[Majorityof1]

Saad has been atrocious this year on D. Like last two years Schenn level bad. Please see my above post.

Edit - in fact, Saad is our third worst forward in terms of GA/60. The only players worse then him are Dean (6 game sample size and a rookie) and Vrana (b/c duh). If you account for a reasonable level of minutes played (like 250 5v5 minutes, which equates to around 25ish GP for most players) he's THE WORST. Saad used to be a good defensive player. That has gone bye-bye this season and it's a huge reason why we've struggled.

Our second line has been abysmal this season in driving 5v5 results. Thomas, Kyrou, Buch, Schenn, Saad, and Neighbors are the top 6 in terms of TOI at 5v5, with Hayes lurking just behind Neighbors. When factoring in PP time, it becomes even more clear that our top 6 are the above mentioned players. Kyrou, Neighbors, and Saad are our top three 5v5 goal scorers (21, 18, 18 respectively, then it drops to 13 with Thomas), yet both Neighbors and Saad are outscored at 5v5, along with Schenn. In fact, the Saad/Schenn/Neighbors trio has outscored the Thomas/Kyrou/Buch trio at 5v5 by two goals if you're comparing individual numbers, yet all three of the Thomas/Kyrou/Buch trio is positive for 5v5 GF/GA and the Schenn/Saad/Neighbors trio is minus.

I would hard argue that our second line has been one of the most frustrating parts of our team this season. If we had competent 2nd line 5v5 play, especially defensively, we would probably be in a playoff spot. The Schenn/Saad/Neighbors trio is a big reason why we're struggling in the standings, even if Saad and Neighbors have put up nice offensive seasons.

I don't disagree. Schenn's had a down year, Saad's been shakier on D and streakier than normal, we lack a play driver on that line and our first line is not elite enough to get away with a weaker 2nd line. But I do disagree that the individual players are not 2nd liners on a better constructed line/ team.

 

[Spektre]

I don't disagree. Schenn's had a down year, Saad's been shakier on D and streakier than normal, we lack a play driver on that line and our first line is not elite enough to get away with a weaker 2nd line. But I do disagree that the individual players are not 2nd liners on a better constructed line/ team.

Schenn isn't having a down year. This is who he is.