NHL Entry Draft 2022 NHL Draft Thread - Part 2

[SensFan1010]

1st + brown for fiala seems possible

 

[Cosmix]

Tesla.

Now you tell me!

Yikes, that is steep. I'd want Formenton out of that if we give up our 1st, or expect a swap of 1rd picks with MIN.

I would rather keep Formenton and the #1 pick. Build from the draft and UFAs.

 

[BondraTime]

Not sure I can name a single NHLer over the past 20 years that was Dumais size with skating as poor as his that made the NHL.

Extremely smart and skilled, but when your skating is as noticeably bad as it is against a team like Cape Breton,,it’s going to be extremely exposed against NHL players.

Would be fine to throw a dart at in the 3rd for sure.

 

[aragorn]

The Sens seem deep at LW & centre & where they could really use some depth would be at RW or RD in this draft. And there are several of both in this draft that could eventually help this team improve.

 

[BondraTime]

edit

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Not sure I can name a single NHLer over the past 20 years that was Dumais size with skating as poor as his that made the NHL.

Extremely smart and skilled, but when your skating is as noticeably bad as it is against a team like Cape Breton,,it’s going to be extremely exposed against NHL players.

Would be fine to throw a dart at in the 3rd for sure.

I don’t think his skating is as bad as you’re making it out to be. He has good speed, but lacks in acceleration at times as his strides aren’t powerful enough nto allow him to get ahead of a play. He is strong on his edges and it allows him to make quick plays in small areas. Skating is one skill that can be improved on and will be worked on in the offseason and in his next 2 seasons of junior hockey; his hockey IQ however, can’t be improved and that is what stands out to me when I watch him.

He outscored his nearest teammate by 20 points and had almost 50 more than his 3rd closest teammate - showing that he isn’t a passenger whatsoever.

I see so many tools with Dumais, who also has a helluva toolbox to go with it. He could be the next Brayden Point, or Alex DeBrincat. I remember Skating/size was Points biggest knock on draft day and was the reason he was drafted in the third round.

At some point you can’t ignore the production this kid put up as a 17 year old. I think a smart team will jump up into the first round and draft him. He’s definitely the most interesting prospect in the draft for me.

 

[BondraTime]

I don’t think his skating is as bad as you’re making it out to be. He has good speed, but lacks in acceleration at times as his strides aren’t powerful enough nto allow him to get ahead of a play. He is strong on his edges and it allows him to make quick plays in small areas. Skating is one skill that can be improved on and will be worked on in the offseason and in his next 2 seasons of junior hockey; his hockey IQ however, can’t be improved and that is what stands out to me when I watch him.

He outscored his nearest teammate by 20 points and had almost 50 more than his 3rd closest teammate - showing that he isn’t a passenger whatsoever.

I see so many tools with Dumais, who also has a helluva toolbox to go with it. He could be the next Brayden Point, or Alex DeBrincat. I remember Skating/size was Points biggest knock on draft day and was the reason he was drafted in the third round.

At some point you can’t ignore the production this kid put up as a 17 year old. I think a smart team will jump up into the first round and draft him. He’s definitely the most interesting prospect in the draft for me.

More power to you, and you very well could be right. I don’t think any team that was watching his game this season is trading into the 1st for him.

The skating was very apparent to me at the Center 200 a few days ago.

He was the best player in the ice, for sure, and he will be a majority of the times he suits up the next 2/3 years in the Q. Not sure his skating is going to work against guys in the NHL. You can’t slow the game down to your pace at will against NHLers like you can in the Quebec league.

Him not getting invited to the prospects game, which is by request of NHL teams, tells me that they aren’t extremely high on him, especially high.

Honestly, I’d be somewhat surprised if he was the 1st Moosehead drafted.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Even if you think there's a 90% chance Dumais doesn't improve his skating and busts completely, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round for that 10% chance he does and ends up an impact player.

Risk/reward ratio is way off ranking him the 73rd NA skater behind a lot of guys who are also likely non-NHLers but have nowhere near the same kind of upside.

I mean once you get past the 1st round it's unlikely you are drafting a future NHLer, let alone past the 2nd or 3rd rounds, and a 73rd NA ranking basically means 4th round ranking after you incorporate Euros and goalies.

When you're likely to be drafting a bust, why not swing for the fences instead of gambling on a potential replacement level player? Makes no sense.

 

[NewGenScout]

Even if you think there's a 90% chance Dumais doesn't improve his skating and busts completely, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round for that 10% chance he does and ends up an impact player.

Risk/reward ratio is way off ranking him the 73rd NA skater behind a lot of guys who are also likely non-NHLers but have nowhere near the same kind of upside.

I mean once you get past the 1st round it's unlikely you are drafting a future NHLer, let alone past the 2nd or 3rd rounds, and a 73rd NA ranking basically means 4th round ranking after you incorporate Euros and goalies.

When you're likely to be drafting a bust, why not swing for the fences instead of gambling on a potential replacement level player? Makes no sense.

That is one of the best quote I have ever read on that board. Most (I mean like 99%) will never play a single game in the NHL. Why not take a chance with one that has a brain and hope for the best.

 

[cudi]

Dumais sounds a bit like Corey Locke back in the day. Hopefully at least a bit better skater than Locke tho.

 

[BondraTime]

Dumais sounds a bit like Corey Locke back in the day. Hopefully at least a bit better skater than Locke tho.

Probably the best comparable for him skill and stature wise. Same things said about Locke all the way up.

Canadians got the steal of the draft in 03’ for years, until they never.

Dumais is a better pre draft prospect, but both have the same hurdles. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a Yote draft pick.

 

[Micklebot]

Probably the best comparable for him skill and stature wise. Same things said about Locke all the way up.

Dumais is a better pre draft prospect, but both have the same hurdles.

When Locke was drafted being small was a bigger deal, though I guess skating was less of an issue.

 

[BondraTime]

When Locke was drafted being small was a bigger deal, though I guess skating was less of an issue.

Size was definitely a bigger deal back in 03’, once 05-06 started size became much less of an issue, and it’s even less of one now, but his skating is why he never made it. Always thought the game better than others, had much more skill, but couldn’t use it at the NHL level when he is that size and skating isn’t a plus, and most opposing NHL players think the game at an extremely high level and are almost all very good skaters.

If Dumais was 6’1, his skating would be what hurts his draft stock. The fact that he’s 5’8 compounds that to a much, much bigger level.

 

[cudi]

Size was definitely a bigger deal back in 03’, once 05-06 started size became much less of an issue, and it’s even less of one now, but his skating is why he never made it. Always thought the game better than others, had much more skill, but couldn’t use it at the NHL level when he is that size and skating isn’t a plus, and most opposing NHL players think the game at an extremely high level and are almost all very good skaters.

guy had some of the best vision I've ever seen in my life. Hockey sense through the roof. I bet about half of Foy's goals were tap in gimme's. Locke made me want to go the Civic Center every weekend and watch him play.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Not sure I can name a single NHLer over the past 20 years that was Dumais size with skating as poor as his that made the NHL.

Extremely smart and skilled, but when your skating is as noticeably bad as it is against a team like Cape Breton,,it’s going to be extremely exposed against NHL players.

Would be fine to throw a dart at in the 3rd for sure.

I would take a swing at him in the 3rd ... maybe the later 2nd pick depending on who else is there but I think there will be enough intrigue there. You don't make picks thinking ahh chances are they will never play.. You think you see something there .. Still I agree with taking a swing or two on some offensive upside

 

[NewGenScout]

Probably the best comparable for him skill and stature wise. Same things said about Locke all the way up.

Canadians got the steal of the draft in 03’ for years, until they never.

Dumais is a better pre draft prospect, but both have the same hurdles. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a Yote draft pick.

A Yote pick? Based on what? I wrote on another Board that I think that he will have pro success if he ends-up in the right organization only…and the Yote are part of the team that I thing that if he ends-up there, he would not have success and could ruin his upside…lol…Any colour on your comment?

 

[BondraTime]

I would take a swing at him in the 3rd ... maybe the later 2nd pick depending on who else is there but I think there will be enough intrigue there. You don't make picks thinking ahh chances are they will never play.. You think you see something there .. Still I agree with taking a swing or two on some offensive upside

I’d absolutely advocate taking a swing on Dumais, I’m just stating why I feel like his ranking makes a bit of sense to me. I saw him live a handful of times this year, each time you could see the smarts and skill, and also see the skating and size.

A Yote pick? Based on what? I wrote on another Board that I think that he will have pro success if he ends-up in the right organization only…and the Yote are part of the team that I thing that if he ends-up there, he would not have success and could ruin his upside…lol…Any colour on your comment?

Yotes have 4 2nd round picks, after their own early 2nd they would be able to swing for a small chance home run with one of their mid/late 2nds.

 

[NewGenScout]

I’d absolutely advocate taking a swing on Dumais, I’m just stating why I feel like his ranking makes a bit of sense to me. I saw him love a handful of times this year, each time you could see the smarts and skill, and also see the skating and size.


Yotes have 4 2nd round picks, after their own early 2nd they would be able to swing for a small chance home run with one of their mid/late 2nds.

I get it, makes sense. But ouf, I don’t wish him that scenario. Am I wrong or even the management of that team is old style, likes big guys, 1980 style of hockey?

On top of this, he would be so confused, he would have to play in way smaller rink that he is playing right now…lol…8 000 - 10 000 people in junior and 5 000 in the NHL.

Ok, I get it, by the time he proves himself to play in the NHL, the new rink will be built….sorry for that little sarcasm.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I’d absolutely advocate taking a swing on Dumais, I’m just stating why I feel like his ranking makes a bit of sense to me. I saw him love a handful of times this year, each time you could see the smarts and skill, and also see the skating and size.


Yotes have 4 2nd round picks, after their own early 2nd they would be able to swing for a small chance home run with one of their mid/late 2nds.

I watched on tv a couple games.. Agree on the size and skating.. He is opportunistic and the puck seems to find him. From my viewings I would definitely not be sure about him and his stats tell a better story than what I saw.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I don't think pre-draft/junior point production has the kind of predictive force that some seem to think it does. I haven't seen any breakdown or research on this but just thinking about is conceptually I would question such a reliance on it. Every year there are prospects in the junior leagues that are over a point per game, and sometimes near the top of the league in scoring, that don't get drafted. Sometimes they are 2nd and 3rd year draft eligible prospects but every year there is always a handful of them. That in itself is noteworthy as it reveals that scouts don't believe that there is some kind of perfect correlation between junior point production and NHL upside; that a prospect can have excellent, if not phenomenal, junior point production and not be viewed as a viable NHL prospect worthy of being drafted.

But the more important thing is that if you tried to plot out junior production versus the eventual professional outcome of all prospects, it would likely look statistically random. There would be outcomes where those players never played any professional games, where they became ECHLers, AHLers, European pro's and then a smaller percentage would become NHL players. Even among those that became NHL players there would likely be a pretty wide range of outcomes of all kinds of point production ranges at the NHL level. If you review that data it would likely be hard to make any meaningful inferences from. You wouldn't be able to say that X production at the junior level = Y production at the NHL level. That would be inaccurate as it wouldn't include all the incidences where X production at the junior level did not equal Y production at the NHL level. The most you could say is that Z% of players who produced X at the junior level, produced Y at the NHL level.

You could attempt the reverse where you take Y production at the NHL level and then plot out the junior production of all players who produced Y production at the NHL level. Even then you are likely to run into two challenges. The first is that the junior production is likely more varied than some might anticipate so it would be difficult to draw a clear causal connection between X junior production and Y NHL production. The second issue is based on what is stated in the paragraph above. If you only look at the NHL outcome and try to draw the connection to junior production then you are overlooking all the incidents where that junior production lead to an entirely different outcome.

The best you could likely hope for is some clustering of outcomes. This isn't to say that junior production should be disregarded or dismissed entirely, it is to say that it probably shouldn't be relied on too heavily when making predictions.

 

[Icelevel]

1st + brown for fiala seems possible

That would be great. Add a little frosting with a low level prospect and get it done.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I don't think pre-draft/junior point production has the kind of predictive force that some seem to think it does. I haven't seen any breakdown or research on this but just thinking about is conceptually I would question such a reliance on it. Every year there are prospects in the junior leagues that are over a point per game, and sometimes near the top of the league in scoring, that don't get drafted. Sometimes they are 2nd and 3rd year draft eligible prospects but every year there is always a handful of them. That in itself is noteworthy as it reveals that scouts don't believe that there is some kind of perfect correlation between junior point production and NHL upside; that a prospect can have excellent, if not phenomenal, junior point production and not be viewed as a viable NHL prospect worthy of being drafted.

But the more important thing is that if you tried to plot out junior production versus the eventual professional outcome of all prospects, it would likely look statistically random. There would be outcomes where those players never played any professional games, where they became ECHLers, AHLers, European pro's and then a smaller percentage would become NHL players. Even among those that became NHL players there would likely be a pretty wide range of outcomes of all kinds of point production ranges at the NHL level. If you review that data it would likely be hard to make any meaningful inferences from. You wouldn't be able to say that X production at the junior level = Y production at the NHL level. That would be inaccurate as it wouldn't include all the incidences where X production at the junior level did not equal Y production at the NHL level. The most you could say is that Z% of players who produced X at the junior level, produced Y at the NHL level.

You could attempt the reverse where you take Y production at the NHL level and then plot out the junior production of all players who produced Y production at the NHL level. Even then you are likely to run into two challenges. The first is that the junior production is likely more varied than some might anticipate so it would be difficult to draw a clear causal connection between X junior production and Y NHL production. The second issue is based on what is stated in the paragraph above. If you only look at the NHL outcome and try to draw the connection to junior production then you are overlooking all the incidents where that junior production lead to an entirely different outcome.

The best you could likely hope for is some clustering of outcomes. This isn't to say that junior production should be disregarded or dismissed entirely, it is to say that it probably shouldn't be relied on too heavily when making predictions.

Points as a future predictor is what these NHLe based models are all about. I think there is statistical research and breakdowns if you look for them on it.
I am just pointing this out and I am not arguing for its use but I am sure others can go deeper on it @theanalytic . Using it as the only predictor will have its drawbacks. I think there are a few resources that one could look into to get more insight into the accuracy of using pts in various leagues as a predictor over large sample sizes. I am not sure proponents of its use would agree that the results are statistically random. I have listed some articles on the subject.

An Introduction to NHLe and the NHLe Thresholds Analysis

NHL Equivalencies (NHLe) are a concept that have been around some fifteen years. The idea, developed by Gabe Desjardins and expanded on by hockey analytics gurus like Rob Vollman, originated …

hockeyprospecting.com

Predicting Future NHL Scoring Success with NHLe Thresholds & Related Factors

<center><div class="getty embed image" style="background-color:#fff;di...

flamesnation.ca

NHL Equivalency and Prospect Projection Models: Building the NHL Equivalency Model (Part 2)

A Few Minor Updates on an Established Framework

towardsdatascience.com

Capitals Prospect Assessment With The ‘NHLe Player Comparison Tool’

The whole concept of this piece will focus on NHLe. If you’re unfamiliar with NHLe (NHL Equivalency)… it’s a way of extrapolating a player’s production (points per game) from one league to expected…

novacapsfans.com

These models are never going to be 100%

 

[Dan Patrick]

Just 4 days to the lottery now

 

[BondraTime]

No team is just looking at stats for prospects, so much more goes into it. If that were the case Dumais would be the 1st overall pick.

NHL forward prospects are expected, at a bare minimum, to produce in junior leagues. These aren’t tough leagues to produce in, and with only 5-7% of the CHL being NHL drafted players, they’re expected to produce.
At 17 a lot of guys are buried. If you’re a top 6/top line guy at 17, you should be producing ~ppg as a top 50/100 pick. If you’re a guy like Formenton who is buried, there is a lot more projection in your rank, IE tools.

Size, skating, IQ all play a huge part in ranking a guy, If you’re sub 5’10, that is already a strike against you projection wise. 5’8 is very, very small. If you’re a guy that’s 5’8, you NEED to be an extremely strong skater. If not, you’re not going to be highly sought after, the league does not have much precedence for small, average skating players.

Lots of time scouts get caught up on size, truculence and tools. That’s also a terrible way to have bad drafts.

The Canucks board did a project where instead of the picks the Canucks selected from 2005-2012, I believe, they selected the highest scoring forwards and defence from the CHL in a consensus draft ranking, and when looking at both drafts, it was not even close. The highest scoring players ended up the better NHL players by a landslide. Of course that’s only one instance where a very bad drafting team was used.

Using a points only approach doesn’t work, the same way using an identity or traits of past players approach doesn’t work. Everything needs to be used together, and everything needs to be used in the present, not the past. If we’re going to be making draft decisions because a draft archetype worked for us a time or two before, we’re going to be in trouble. For every player of a type that works out there are 20 that don’t.

You need to find the right players, and that involves watching them and evaluating them for what they are now, and what you think they project against the other guys in this class.

If you think a guy has good skill, and has good size, but his skating is a problem, it’s likely going to be a problem moving forward. As much as people like to say skating can be fixed, it’s not something that can be fixed very easily, or to much effect.

If you think a guy is big and fast and mean, but doesn’t have much IQ, it’s likely going to be a problem moving forward. Not very often guys figure things like that out.

Find the guys you think projects the best into the NHL with all things taken into account, including shortcomings. If it’s a shortcoming prior to the draft, chances are it will be a shortcoming in the NHL.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]