zeke
The Dube Abides
- Mar 14, 2005
- 66,937
- 36,957
I cannot understand how anyone could think Kerfoot with Tavares and Nylander is a viable line after watching them play together
Well true they were only the most productive 2nd line in hockey.
I cannot understand how anyone could think Kerfoot with Tavares and Nylander is a viable line after watching them play together
I cannot understand how anyone could think Kerfoot with Tavares and Nylander is a viable line after watching them play together
All this talk about lines that work, or don't work together, is interesting, but I thought I'd look into the actual numbers of last years lines, and look to see what actually happened. In some cases, the lines didn't get huge minutes, but I think you can draw some conclusions based on these numbers.
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]
Line[/TD]
[TD]
Type[/TD]
[TD]
Minutes[/TD]
[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals %[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals For[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals Against[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals For[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals Against[/TD]
[TD]xNet Goals[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD][/TD]
[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Marner-Matthews-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]48.4[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]69.80%[/TD]
[TD]4.4[/TD]
[TD]1.9[/TD]
[TD]5.45[/TD]
[TD]2.36[/TD]
[TD]3.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Bunting-Tavares-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]40.9[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]66.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5.73[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]2.79[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
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[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Bunting-Matthews-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]554.7[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]35.8[/TD]
[TD]19.3[/TD]
[TD]3.87[/TD]
[TD]2.09[/TD]
[TD]1.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]192.7[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]10.4[/TD]
[TD]5.6[/TD]
[TD]3.24[/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]99.3[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]62.50%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3.02[/TD]
[TD]1.81[/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
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[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Bunting-Matthews-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]127.7[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]58.50%[/TD]
[TD]8.3[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]2.77[/TD]
[TD]1.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Robertson-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]32.2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]58.30%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]3.91[/TD]
[TD]2.79[/TD]
[TD]1.12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]145.9[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]56.90%[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.71[/TD]
[TD]2.06[/TD]
[TD]0.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Engvall-Kerfoot-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34.1[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]54.10%[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1.7[/TD]
[TD]3.52[/TD]
[TD]2.99[/TD]
[TD]0.53[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]86.3[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]53.10%[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[TD]2.99[/TD]
[TD]2.64[/TD]
[TD]0.35[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
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[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]399.9[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]52.80%[/TD]
[TD]19.6[/TD]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]2.63[/TD]
[TD]0.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]91.6[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]52.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]2.42[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]
[TD]0.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]45.50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]1.66[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]
[TD]-0.33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Bunting-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]46.70%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.6[/TD]
[TD]2.32[/TD]
[TD]2.66[/TD]
[TD]-0.34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]33.7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]45.70%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.74[/TD]
[TD]4.46[/TD]
[TD]-0.72[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
You can pick and choose what you want out of this, but clearly Nylander, Matthews and Marner together works great. Limited minutes, but I think we can agree it isn't how we would setup lines long term.
Bunting and Marner seems to be great, whether it's Tavares or Matthews centering them. Matthews had the benefit of the most time... for that purpose, we will leave that line together. The top line stays.
Now we look at Tavares, outside of Bunting and Marner.
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[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]99.3[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]62.50%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3.02[/TD]
[TD]1.81[/TD]
[TD]1.21[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Robertson-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]32.2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]58.30%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]3.91[/TD]
[TD]2.79[/TD]
[TD]1.12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]399.9[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]52.80%[/TD]
[TD]19.6[/TD]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]2.63[/TD]
[TD]0.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]33.7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]45.70%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.74[/TD]
[TD]4.46[/TD]
[TD]-0.72[/TD]
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[TD]A couple of notes. Nylander playing LW, for Tavares doesn't work. Kerfoot, Tavares and Nylander isn't very good. Robertson, Tavares and Nylander was quite good. Kerfoot, Tavares, Mik worked well too, but given what we see with the Engvall/Kampf combo, that isn't ideal. We should try Robertson/Tavares/Nylander for a more extended look
Apologies for formatting.. I'm not sure what happened. You'll need to scroll right some.
Engvall/Kampf work well together. With Kerfoot, not so much. With Nylander barely... One of the newer guys should get a shot with them.
Conclusion
Bunting/Matthews/Marner
Robertson/Tavares/Nylander
Engvall/Kampf/xxx
Kerfoot doesn't fit very well in our lineup.
If we used last years numbers, and assumed Engvall/Kampf/Kase for the xxx, our X Net goals/60 would be 3.55 on the positive.. I mean, we'd go undefeated. LOL[/TD]
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[TABLE=collapse]
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[TD][TABLE=collapse]
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[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]192.7[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]10.4[/TD]
[TD]5.6[/TD]
[TD]3.24[/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]145.9[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]56.90%[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.71[/TD]
[TD]2.06[/TD]
[TD]0.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]91.6[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]52.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]2.42[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]
[TD]0.19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]45.50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]1.66[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]
[TD]-0.33[/TD]
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I saw someone in another thread quite confident we can be cap-compliant game 1 without making any moves, but it doesn't make sense to me. I figure we will have to get someone for LTIR or trade someone.
You think Marner would be more productive playing with Tavares than with Matthews?What? Marner is 100% not a worse player with Tavares. If anything he’s even better with Tavares. Their play style works so well together.
Additionally it makes our offense more balanced
It’s doable but not ideal. Technically not signing Sandin, and then running only 20 players gets us cap compliant.
Look at how many goals they allowed and stop cherry pickingWell true they were only the most productive 2nd line in hockey.
You think Marner would be more productive playing with Tavares than with Matthews?
Ok. We disagree.
Wouldn't our offence be more balanced with three productive lines rather than two?
I disagree. Marner started shooting the puck more at the net this year. In that, Matthews is by far a better set up man that JT. Marner has far greater options with the big guy.Our third line is fine compared to other NHL third lines. They produce pretty effectively and on top of that provide a lot positives in terms of defense
Yes… Marner had produced 90+ points with both centers. The biggest difference is Marner plays more free with Tavares, he’s able to cycle and create space as the primary puck handler and Tavares is so good at net front. Additionally Marner is great at transition offense and finding guys. Where as when he is with Matthews he’s so focused on getting Matthews the puck it takes away from his game in a way.
If you really look at Marner’s game some of his best stuff/offensive chances comes away from Matthews whether it be transition or on the PK ect.
I don't dispute that Marner would help Tavares' game, but I think Tavares will bring down Marner's game, for a net loss.Our third line is fine compared to other NHL third lines. They produce pretty effectively and on top of that provide a lot positives in terms of defense
Yes… Marner had produced 90+ points with both centers. The biggest difference is Marner plays more free with Tavares, he’s able to cycle and create space as the primary puck handler and Tavares is so good at net front. Additionally Marner is great at transition offense and finding guys. Where as when he is with Matthews he’s so focused on getting Matthews the puck it takes away from his game in a way.
If you really look at Marner’s game some of his best stuff/offensive chances comes away from Matthews whether it be transition or on the PK ect.
I've seen Kerfoot labelled as a "pass first" guy many times on this board and can't understand it for the life of me. He's a very sub-par playmaker, it seems like most of his assists come from being the first guy on the puck because he's got great hustle. I still can't wrap my head around the posters who were trying to make this guy out to be >= to Kadri.
Coming into his contract year, it'll be interesting. Kerfoot put up by far the best year of his career last year and I have my doubts he'll come anywhere close to it. In a typical Kerfoot year, he's nowhere near the ES producer he was last year.
He was tried for brief periods of time with Matthews/Marner but had nowhere near the hockey IQ to be compatible with them.
The trade to make is:
Sandin + Kerfoot for a 4 million 2nd line LW.
So, who is that?
For me - it’s Bertuzzi.Probably makes sense if it is not 4 mill so we have some flexibility.
But I would say the answer is Hayton. You can probably sign him for a lot less than 4 mill, and the Leafs should have enough to have an extra forward and defenseman on the roster.
I've seen Kerfoot labelled as a "pass first" guy many times on this board and can't understand it for the life of me. He's a very sub-par playmaker, it seems like most of his assists come from being the first guy on the puck because he's got great hustle. I still can't wrap my head around the posters who were trying to make this guy out to be >= to Kadri.
Coming into his contract year, it'll be interesting. Kerfoot put up by far the best year of his career last year and I have my doubts he'll come anywhere close to it. In a typical Kerfoot year, he's nowhere near the ES producer he was last year.
He was tried for brief periods of time with Matthews/Marner but had nowhere near the hockey IQ to be compatible with them.
For me - it’s Bertuzzi.
Not sure what it would take.
Kerfoot
Sandin
Knies
Bertuzzi with Retention
25 gf 23 ga.For the record, regular season and playoffs combined, Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander scored 51.5% of the goals and earned 53.1% of the expected goals while on the ice together.
25 gf 23 ga.
Doesn't look like a dominant 2nd line to me but I don't cherry pick.