2022 Line Combinations

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I cannot understand how anyone could think Kerfoot with Tavares and Nylander is a viable line after watching them play together

Not just watching them, but analytically Kerfoot is a poor fit on the second line… well he makes Engvall/Kampf worse too. That’s on a net basis for both.

We better hope Robertson is ready to go.
 
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All this talk about lines that work, or don't work together, is interesting, but I thought I'd look into the actual numbers of last years lines, and look to see what actually happened. In some cases, the lines didn't get huge minutes, but I think you can draw some conclusions based on these numbers.


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[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]
Line[/TD]
[TD]
Type[/TD]
[TD]
Minutes[/TD]
[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals %[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals For[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals Against[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals For[/TD]
[TD]
xGoals Against[/TD]
[TD]xNet Goals[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

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[TR]
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[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Per 60 Minutes[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Marner-Matthews-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]48.4[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]69.80%[/TD]
[TD]4.4[/TD]
[TD]1.9[/TD]
[TD]5.45[/TD]
[TD]2.36[/TD]

[TD]
3.09​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Bunting-Tavares-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]40.9[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]66.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5.73[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]

[TD]
2.79​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Bunting-Matthews-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]554.7[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]35.8[/TD]
[TD]19.3[/TD]
[TD]3.87[/TD]
[TD]2.09[/TD]

[TD]
1.78​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]192.7[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]10.4[/TD]
[TD]5.6[/TD]
[TD]3.24[/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]

[TD]
1.5​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]99.3[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]62.50%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3.02[/TD]
[TD]1.81[/TD]

[TD]
1.21​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Bunting-Matthews-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]127.7[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]58.50%[/TD]
[TD]8.3[/TD]
[TD]5.9[/TD]
[TD]3.9[/TD]
[TD]2.77[/TD]

[TD]
1.13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Robertson-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]32.2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]58.30%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]3.91[/TD]
[TD]2.79[/TD]

[TD]
1.12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]145.9[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]56.90%[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.71[/TD]
[TD]2.06[/TD]

[TD]
0.65​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Engvall-Kerfoot-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34.1[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]54.10%[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1.7[/TD]
[TD]3.52[/TD]
[TD]2.99[/TD]

[TD]
0.53​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Marner[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]86.3[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]53.10%[/TD]
[TD]4.3[/TD]
[TD]3.8[/TD]
[TD]2.99[/TD]
[TD]2.64[/TD]

[TD]
0.35​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]399.9[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]52.80%[/TD]
[TD]19.6[/TD]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]2.63[/TD]

[TD]
0.31​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]91.6[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]52.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]2.42[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]

[TD]
0.19​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]

[TD]
0​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]45.50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]1.66[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]

[TD]
-0.33​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Bunting-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]46.70%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.6[/TD]
[TD]2.32[/TD]
[TD]2.66[/TD]

[TD]
-0.34​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]33.7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]45.70%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.74[/TD]
[TD]4.46[/TD]

[TD]
-0.72​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

You can pick and choose what you want out of this, but clearly Nylander, Matthews and Marner together works great. Limited minutes, but I think we can agree it isn't how we would setup lines long term.

Bunting and Marner seems to be great, whether it's Tavares or Matthews centering them. Matthews had the benefit of the most time... for that purpose, we will leave that line together. The top line stays.

Now we look at Tavares, outside of Bunting and Marner.

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[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]99.3[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]62.50%[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3.02[/TD]
[TD]1.81[/TD]

[TD]
1.21​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Robertson-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]32.2[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]58.30%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]1.5[/TD]
[TD]3.91[/TD]
[TD]2.79[/TD]

[TD]
1.12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]399.9[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]52.80%[/TD]
[TD]19.6[/TD]
[TD]17.5[/TD]
[TD]2.94[/TD]
[TD]2.63[/TD]

[TD]
0.31​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]1.4[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]
[TD]2.47[/TD]

[TD]
0​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nylander-Tavares-Mikheyev[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]33.7[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]45.70%[/TD]
[TD]2.1[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]3.74[/TD]
[TD]4.46[/TD]

[TD]
-0.72​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

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[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

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[TD][/TD]

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[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]A couple of notes. Nylander playing LW, for Tavares doesn't work. Kerfoot, Tavares and Nylander isn't very good. Robertson, Tavares and Nylander was quite good. Kerfoot, Tavares, Mik worked well too, but given what we see with the Engvall/Kampf combo, that isn't ideal. We should try Robertson/Tavares/Nylander for a more extended look

Apologies for formatting.. I'm not sure what happened. You'll need to scroll right some.

Engvall/Kampf work well together. With Kerfoot, not so much. With Nylander barely... One of the newer guys should get a shot with them.

Conclusion

Bunting/Matthews/Marner
Robertson/Tavares/Nylander
Engvall/Kampf/xxx

Kerfoot doesn't fit very well in our lineup.

If we used last years numbers, and assumed Engvall/Kampf/Kase for the xxx, our X Net goals/60 would be 3.55 on the positive.. I mean, we'd go undefeated. LOL[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]192.7[/TD]
[TD]35[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]10.4[/TD]
[TD]5.6[/TD]
[TD]3.24[/TD]
[TD]1.74[/TD]

[TD]
1.5​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kase[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]145.9[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]56.90%[/TD]
[TD]6.6[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.71[/TD]
[TD]2.06[/TD]

[TD]
0.65​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Nylander[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]91.6[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]52.10%[/TD]
[TD]3.7[/TD]
[TD]3.4[/TD]
[TD]2.42[/TD]
[TD]2.23[/TD]

[TD]
0.19​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Engvall-Kampf-Kerfoot[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]36.2[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]45.50%[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[TD]1.66[/TD]
[TD]1.99[/TD]

[TD]
-0.33​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]
[/TD]
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[/TABLE]

I posted this earlier in the summer, but thought it deserved a reposting. Take a read through.
 
I saw someone in another thread quite confident we can be cap-compliant game 1 without making any moves, but it doesn't make sense to me. I figure we will have to get someone for LTIR or trade someone.

It’s doable but not ideal. Technically not signing Sandin, and then running only 20 players gets us cap compliant.
 
What? Marner is 100% not a worse player with Tavares. If anything he’s even better with Tavares. Their play style works so well together.

Additionally it makes our offense more balanced
You think Marner would be more productive playing with Tavares than with Matthews?

Ok. We disagree.

Wouldn't our offence be more balanced with three productive lines rather than two?
 
It’s doable but not ideal. Technically not signing Sandin, and then running only 20 players gets us cap compliant.

Okay, ya, just checked CapFriendly, not ideal, but also, not the worst thing. I wouldn't mind dealing Sandin, I think he can be a good player, but just don't see how he gets any playing time if he can't play the right side.
 
You think Marner would be more productive playing with Tavares than with Matthews?

Ok. We disagree.

Wouldn't our offence be more balanced with three productive lines rather than two?

Our third line is fine compared to other NHL third lines. They produce pretty effectively and on top of that provide a lot positives in terms of defense

Yes… Marner had produced 90+ points with both centers. The biggest difference is Marner plays more free with Tavares, he’s able to cycle and create space as the primary puck handler and Tavares is so good at net front. Additionally Marner is great at transition offense and finding guys. Where as when he is with Matthews he’s so focused on getting Matthews the puck it takes away from his game in a way.

If you really look at Marner’s game some of his best stuff/offensive chances comes away from Matthews whether it be transition or on the PK ect.
 
Our third line is fine compared to other NHL third lines. They produce pretty effectively and on top of that provide a lot positives in terms of defense

Yes… Marner had produced 90+ points with both centers. The biggest difference is Marner plays more free with Tavares, he’s able to cycle and create space as the primary puck handler and Tavares is so good at net front. Additionally Marner is great at transition offense and finding guys. Where as when he is with Matthews he’s so focused on getting Matthews the puck it takes away from his game in a way.

If you really look at Marner’s game some of his best stuff/offensive chances comes away from Matthews whether it be transition or on the PK ect.
I disagree. Marner started shooting the puck more at the net this year. In that, Matthews is by far a better set up man that JT. Marner has far greater options with the big guy.
 
Our third line is fine compared to other NHL third lines. They produce pretty effectively and on top of that provide a lot positives in terms of defense

Yes… Marner had produced 90+ points with both centers. The biggest difference is Marner plays more free with Tavares, he’s able to cycle and create space as the primary puck handler and Tavares is so good at net front. Additionally Marner is great at transition offense and finding guys. Where as when he is with Matthews he’s so focused on getting Matthews the puck it takes away from his game in a way.

If you really look at Marner’s game some of his best stuff/offensive chances comes away from Matthews whether it be transition or on the PK ect.
I don't dispute that Marner would help Tavares' game, but I think Tavares will bring down Marner's game, for a net loss.

And I think we'd be better off with Marner staying with Matthews, and having two second lines, one with Nylander and one with Tavares, as they seem to be better away from each other.
 
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I'm guessing we'll see

Bunting Matthews Marner
Kerfoot Tavares Nylander
Engvall Kampf Jarnkrok
Aston-Reese Gaudette Aube-Kubel

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Giordano Liljegren

Murray
Samsonov

If that's cap compliant

I'd rather see

Kerfoot Matthews Nylander
Bunting Tavares Marner
Engvall Kampf Jarnkrok
Aston-Reese ??? Aube-Kubel

Rielly Brodie
Giordano Liljegren
Muzzin ???

Samsonov
Murray

Kerfoot probably isn't going anywhere and will probably be crammed into the top 6. He's a pass first kind of guy. Could be a good fit for Matthews and Nylander. I don't like Nylander with Tavares.

2nd line should produce more consistently and be better defensively. Marner is the only winger I like with Tavares.

Can't see Kampf not being the 3C. No matter who played with him the line was steady and dependable. May not produce a lot of offense but really how many goals should we expect from a 3rd line? 10- 15 goals each?

I don't know anything about Gaudette or who else would play the 4C but I think Aston-Reese and Aube-Kubel hitting and forechecking could make for a very effective and fun yo watch 4th line.

I'd rather see Giordano and Liljegren get 2nd pairing minutes but I'm guessing Rielly Brodie and Muzzin Holl will get the bulk.

And I'm hoping Samsonov will take the starter roll early in the season.
 
I've seen Kerfoot labelled as a "pass first" guy many times on this board and can't understand it for the life of me. He's a very sub-par playmaker, it seems like most of his assists come from being the first guy on the puck because he's got great hustle. I still can't wrap my head around the posters who were trying to make this guy out to be >= to Kadri.

Coming into his contract year, it'll be interesting. Kerfoot put up by far the best year of his career last year and I have my doubts he'll come anywhere close to it. In a typical Kerfoot year, he's nowhere near the ES producer he was last year.

He was tried for brief periods of time with Matthews/Marner but had nowhere near the hockey IQ to be compatible with them.
 
I've seen Kerfoot labelled as a "pass first" guy many times on this board and can't understand it for the life of me. He's a very sub-par playmaker, it seems like most of his assists come from being the first guy on the puck because he's got great hustle. I still can't wrap my head around the posters who were trying to make this guy out to be >= to Kadri.

Coming into his contract year, it'll be interesting. Kerfoot put up by far the best year of his career last year and I have my doubts he'll come anywhere close to it. In a typical Kerfoot year, he's nowhere near the ES producer he was last year.

He was tried for brief periods of time with Matthews/Marner but had nowhere near the hockey IQ to be compatible with them.

Nobody overrates Kerfoot. There are just so many people who criminally underrate him that anything short of that looks like he is being overrated.

He has great IQ to pair with a generally average skill set. He won't wow you, but he makes plays that often go unnoticed by an average fan.

I do agree that I do not really know where he fits. I think Jarnkrok brings similar qualities. Malgin does as well. Both are speedier than Kerfoot though. He would work well with a less skilled version of Tavares, but we don't really have that right now and we have a few prospects who would be better fits for our lineup right now.
 
The trade to make is:
Sandin + Kerfoot for a 4 million 2nd line LW.

So, who is that?
 
The trade to make is:
Sandin + Kerfoot for a 4 million 2nd line LW.

So, who is that?

Probably makes sense if it is not 4 mill so we have some flexibility.

But I would say the answer is Hayton. You can probably sign him for a lot less than 4 mill, and the Leafs should have enough to have an extra forward and defenseman on the roster.
 
Probably makes sense if it is not 4 mill so we have some flexibility.

But I would say the answer is Hayton. You can probably sign him for a lot less than 4 mill, and the Leafs should have enough to have an extra forward and defenseman on the roster.
For me - it’s Bertuzzi.

Not sure what it would take.

Kerfoot
Sandin
Knies

Bertuzzi with Retention
 
Last edited:
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I've seen Kerfoot labelled as a "pass first" guy many times on this board and can't understand it for the life of me. He's a very sub-par playmaker, it seems like most of his assists come from being the first guy on the puck because he's got great hustle. I still can't wrap my head around the posters who were trying to make this guy out to be >= to Kadri.

Coming into his contract year, it'll be interesting. Kerfoot put up by far the best year of his career last year and I have my doubts he'll come anywhere close to it. In a typical Kerfoot year, he's nowhere near the ES producer he was last year.

He was tried for brief periods of time with Matthews/Marner but had nowhere near the hockey IQ to be compatible with them.

Well since I'm the one that just said he was a pass first kind of guy, I'll clarify. I wasn't bragging him up to be some stellar playmaker. It was more that he doesn't shoot. He's just always looking to pass to someone else. And nowhere and at no time have I ever said he was equal to or greater than Kadri.
 
They can't run back Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander. That line just bled goals against and couldn't win their matchups. My preference would be to bolster Tavares with Bunting and Marner, but I think it's unlikely Keefe goes to that off the bat. I would seriously try Engvall in the top-six. He adds speed, forechecking, and much-needed defensive ability. I would still try to flip Marner and Nylander too, just to have an elite player on each line and test other teams to match.

Bunting - Matthews - Nylander
Engvall - Tavares - Marner
Jarnkrok - Kampf - ZAR
TBD - Kerfoot - NAK

On the top two lines, you get a balance of defensive play, some grit + forechecking, and transition ability. The Kampf line is a purely nothing-happens-minutes line, for either team. I think a combo of Kerfoot and NAK could give that line some versatility and medium scoring upside. The list of candidates for the other wing would include guys like Robertson, Anderson, Malgin, Gaudette, etc.
 
For the record, regular season and playoffs combined, Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander scored 51.5% of the goals and earned 53.1% of the expected goals while on the ice together.
 
For me - it’s Bertuzzi.

Not sure what it would take.

Kerfoot
Sandin
Knies

Bertuzzi with Retention


I think Bertuzzi would fit like a glove, but Sandin and Knies? That's pricy considering Knies is supposedly the power forward we've been waiting forever to get.

Do you think he can develop into a to 6 player? Some people here are already penciling him into line 2 for the playoffs, but I think that is wishful thinking.
 
For the record, regular season and playoffs combined, Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander scored 51.5% of the goals and earned 53.1% of the expected goals while on the ice together.
25 gf 23 ga.

Doesn't look like a dominant 2nd line to me but I don't cherry pick.
 
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25 gf 23 ga.

Doesn't look like a dominant 2nd line to me but I don't cherry pick.

True they weren't dominant. But they did outplay their opposition and were the most productive 2nd line in hockey. Could be worse.
 
Bunton/Matthews/Marner line wont be touched. Just too dominant last season.

I dont like Kerfoot/Tavares/Nylander. Didnt work last season. Keefe has to change that up.

I like our third and fourth line on paper. We'll see if it translates.
 
Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Robertson - Tavares - Nylander
Jarnkrok - Kampf - Engvall
NAK - Gaudette - ZAR

Rielly - Liljegren
Muzzin - Brodie
Giordano - Holl/Sandin

Murray
Samsonov

(Kerfoot trade to clear cap)
 

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