Prospect Info: 2022 Draft Prospects, Part II

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya MHL
With most draft-eligible forwards, the numbers which initially command one's attention are goals, assists and points. With Dolzhenkov, make no mistake -- the numbers which will likely see him drafted as early as the 2nd round are quite different: try 6'7-235. This is not a "forward with size". This is an absolute monster on skates. Only 17 with a late April birthday, who knows how huge this kid will be by the time he's ready to turn pro. Is he done growing? Will he hit the NHL at 6'8-255? Will anyone on the planet be able to move him out of a crease? Is he distant cousins with a yeti? These are just some of the questions a team drafting him will be trying to answer.

I should be talking about his abilities, but I enjoy the look in the eyes of some of the 5'8 and 5'9 forwards he lines up opposite of on the face-offs. Like: 'I'm supposed to tie up this guy off the draw???' Dolzhenkov's feet are as big as some MHL-ers' entire torsos. I think they fashion his skates out of repurposed sleds.

The fun does not stop here, because I would say Dolzhenkov is also a good skater -- not for his size, but for any size. While he will never be confused with Cale Makar, this kid can really get moving, though it takes him a few strides to hit top speeds. His agility is also pretty solid, and the combination of his size and mobility makes him, obviously, a rare forward prospect. His offensive game is focused on some shockingly deft puck skills and a devastatingly hard shot. Though -- like most big players his age -- Dolzhenkov's go-to stick handling move is to shield the defender with his enormous backside and use his simply immense wing-span to hold the puck out of reach like an adult playing "keep away" with a child, he is also capable of some slick little dangles when going to the net. His athleticism is also surprising for a young man still growing into such an enormous frame.

There may be no forward in the entire 2022 draft further away from their potential than Dolzhenkov, but you have to be intrigued by the possibilities. His shot is a howitzer, but the mechanics need to be cleaned up. It takes forever to get it off, and this is a guy who needs to be coached into the realization that his snap-shot is harder than most players' full wind-ups and he'd be better off utilizing a weapon which did not allow opposing goalies seemingly weeks to get set and in position. Dolzhenkov is certainly a shoot-first player, and I don't think he'll ever be a player of much vision. But that's not why you're drafting him. I feel he has possible 2nd line upside, simply as a guy who can win battles down low and be a terror in the opposing crease and blast the puck, with the requisite skating to play with NHL skill guys. I'd say, you put him with two 2nd-line skill guys, let them set up the plays and just say: "ok big guy, your linemates are in charge of all the thinking, you just go to the net and, um... crush."

Not that Dolzhenkov is a player of no awareness, I'd say he's of above-average processing in the offensive zone and about average in the defensive zone. He's not a physical bone-crusher, though he clearly knows he's the strongest guy out there every time he's on the ice. Dolzhenkov does not look for the big hit, but again we cannot underestimate how much of a beast this kid is. I've seen him simply give an opposing defender a little one-shouldered shove to get position and almost seem surprised as the player he just shoved goes soaring through the air like a deer just hit by a Mack truck.

I don't know what to say here. Normally, the MHL is under-scouted and there are draft steals all through the league, but one would have to think in the size-obsessed NHL, Dolzhenkov will be snatched up by some team by the early 2nd round. He's a project, but so was the Bionic Man and Dolzhenkov is physically stronger. I don't know if I would draft him in the early second round when there will be several high-end pure scorers available, but I'll definitely be ranking him in the top 50 range. There's a lot of risk in that Kirill Dolzhenkov is so far from his potential, but if he can refine the ancillary qualities of his game to become even an above-average 200 foot hockey player, his immense size and good skating will make him situationally indefensible in the crease and down low.​

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LD Artyom Duda, Krasnaya Moskva MHL
Here we have an offense-first defender with all the necessary tools to aspire to a talent ceiling as a mid-pairing NHL blue liner. His combination of very good skating, high-end puckhandling (especially for a rearguard) and a terrific shot sees him as a regular in 2nd round rankings for the 2022 NHL Draft. Anyone who cannot appreciate a prospect strictly on their tool kit loves him for the most eye-popping factoid on his resume -- an absolutely outstanding stat line of 14 goals and 26 assists for 40 points in just 51 MHL games.

Duda features decent size for his position at 6'1-180, but he plays a smaller man's game. He's not physical at all, and can be outmuscled in puck battles even by smaller players. But a team drafting him will see a projectable frame with core strength which can be improved in the weight room, and a boat-load of offensive chops. Duda is a very good skater with four way mobility, which plays up with puck possession due to a silky and crafty set of mitts. He's a very good passer who is always looking for the stretch feed in breakouts and the pretty seam pass in the offensive zone. Sometimes Duda would be better off making the conservative play, but this is a kid who is always striving to generate offense. Duda's shot is absolutely terrific -- good power, with a compact release and excellent accuracy. Though Duda is a talented playmaker, his first choice is almost always to find a shooting lane and unload.

Duda is constantly activating from the blueline to join the offense. Though this is very effective in the MHL where his talent is head and shoulders above the opposition, he's going to have to temper the risks at higher levels because he does not have the elite speed to make up for turnovers he makes as the last man back. Again, I appreciate the ambition, but the reality is a professional defenseman needs to take care of his end first before thinking offense, unless his team is behind late in a game.

And defense is why I do not have Duda ranked as the top D in the MHL -- an honor I enthusiastically give to Arseni Koromyslov. Though Duda is pretty good in his gaps and effort and very adept at defending the rush, he's not too much of a challenge to get flustered in his own zone. He'll lose physical battles, and when the opposition can sustain a cycle he gets impatient -- losing position and puck-chasing like a chicken with his head cut off. He's essentially a defender who starts out pretty good, but you can chip away at him and cause him to crumble under sustained pressure.

The ability is there, however, and with development this Moscow native certainly has mid-pairing upside at the professional level. The skills are all there, especially offensively. This is certainly a young talent with 40-point type upside at the highest levels, he just needs to make marked improvements in many of the ancillary areas of his game. I'd probably peg him as a guy I would look at from the mid-3rd round on, but with a premium on offensive defenders it's possible he could go higher. Although, with all the uncertainty out of Russia right now, we need to bear in mind the possibility many NHL front offices will be dropping them down their draft lists, or even crossing them off altogether. That's a different point for a different post, but if Duda fell into the later rounds he would certainly represent a potential steal towards the tail-end of the draft.

 

[glenwo2]

@StevenToddIves , I feel like every review you've done is on prospects that have the potential to "hit" as far as being NHL players go.

And I appreciate your work.

 

[mdj12784]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya MHL
With most draft-eligible forwards, the numbers which initially command one's attention are goals, assists and points. With Dolzhenkov, make no mistake -- the numbers which will likely see him drafted as early as the 2nd round are quite different: try 6'7-235. This is not a "forward with size". This is an absolute monster on skates. Only 17 with a late April birthday, who knows how huge this kid will be by the time he's ready to turn pro. Is he done growing? Will he hit the NHL at 6'8-255? Will anyone on the planet be able to move him out of a crease? Is he distant cousins with a yeti? These are just some of the questions a team drafting him will be trying to answer.

I should be talking about his abilities, but I enjoy the look in the eyes of some of the 5'8 and 5'9 forwards he lines up opposite of on the face-offs. Like: 'I'm supposed to tie up this guy off the draw???' Dolzhenkov's feet are as big as some MHL-ers' entire torsos. I think they fashion his skates out of repurposed sleds.

The fun does not stop here, because I would say Dolzhenkov is also a good skater -- not for his size, but for any size. While he will never be confused with Cale Makar, this kid can really get moving, though it takes him a few strides to hit top speeds. His agility is also pretty solid, and the combination of his size and mobility makes him, obviously, a rare forward prospect. His offensive game is focused on some shockingly deft puck skills and a devastatingly hard shot. Though -- like most big players his age -- Dolzhenkov's go-to stick handling move is to shield the defender with his enormous backside and use his simply immense wing-span to hold the puck out of reach like an adult playing "keep away" with a child, he is also capable of some slick little dangles when going to the net. His athleticism is also surprising for a young man still growing into such an enormous frame.

There may be no forward in the entire 2022 draft further away from their potential than Dolzhenkov, but you have to be intrigued by the possibilities. His shot is a howitzer, but the mechanics need to be cleaned up. It takes forever to get it off, and this is a guy who needs to be coached into the realization that his snap-shot is harder than most players' full wind-ups and he'd be better off utilizing a weapon which did not allow opposing goalies seemingly weeks to get set and in position. Dolzhenkov is certainly a shoot-first player, and I don't think he'll ever be a player of much vision. But that's not why you're drafting him. I feel he has possible 2nd line upside, simply as a guy who can win battles down low and be a terror in the opposing crease and blast the puck, with the requisite skating to play with NHL skill guys. I'd say, you put him with two 2nd-line skill guys, let them set up the plays and just say: "ok big guy, your linemates are in charge of all the thinking, you just go to the net and, um... crush."

Not that Dolzhenkov is a player of no awareness, I'd say he's of above-average processing in the offensive zone and about average in the defensive zone. He's not a physical bone-crusher, though he clearly knows he's the strongest guy out there every time he's on the ice. Dolzhenkov does not look for the big hit, but again we cannot underestimate how much of a beast this kid is. I've seen him simply give an opposing defender a little one-shouldered shove to get position and almost seem surprised as the player he just shoved goes soaring through the air like a deer just hit by a Mack truck.

I don't know what to say here. Normally, the MHL is under-scouted and there are draft steals all through the league, but one would have to think in the size-obsessed NHL, Dolzhenkov will be snatched up by some team by the early 2nd round. He's a project, but so was the Bionic Man and Dolzhenkov is physically stronger. I don't know if I would draft him in the early second round when there will be several high-end pure scorers available, but I'll definitely be ranking him in the top 50 range. There's a lot of risk in that Kirill Dolzhenkov is so far from his potential, but if he can refine the ancillary qualities of his game to become even an above-average 200 foot hockey player, his immense size and good skating will make him situationally indefensible in the crease and down low.​

 

[OmNomNom]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya MHL
With most draft-eligible forwards, the numbers which initially command one's attention are goals, assists and points. With Dolzhenkov, make no mistake -- the numbers which will likely see him drafted as early as the 2nd round are quite different: try 6'7-235. This is not a "forward with size". This is an absolute monster on skates. Only 17 with a late April birthday, who knows how huge this kid will be by the time he's ready to turn pro. Is he done growing? Will he hit the NHL at 6'8-255? Will anyone on the planet be able to move him out of a crease? Is he distant cousins with a yeti? These are just some of the questions a team drafting him will be trying to answer.

I should be talking about his abilities, but I enjoy the look in the eyes of some of the 5'8 and 5'9 forwards he lines up opposite of on the face-offs. Like: 'I'm supposed to tie up this guy off the draw???' Dolzhenkov's feet are as big as some MHL-ers' entire torsos. I think they fashion his skates out of repurposed sleds.

The fun does not stop here, because I would say Dolzhenkov is also a good skater -- not for his size, but for any size. While he will never be confused with Cale Makar, this kid can really get moving, though it takes him a few strides to hit top speeds. His agility is also pretty solid, and the combination of his size and mobility makes him, obviously, a rare forward prospect. His offensive game is focused on some shockingly deft puck skills and a devastatingly hard shot. Though -- like most big players his age -- Dolzhenkov's go-to stick handling move is to shield the defender with his enormous backside and use his simply immense wing-span to hold the puck out of reach like an adult playing "keep away" with a child, he is also capable of some slick little dangles when going to the net. His athleticism is also surprising for a young man still growing into such an enormous frame.

There may be no forward in the entire 2022 draft further away from their potential than Dolzhenkov, but you have to be intrigued by the possibilities. His shot is a howitzer, but the mechanics need to be cleaned up. It takes forever to get it off, and this is a guy who needs to be coached into the realization that his snap-shot is harder than most players' full wind-ups and he'd be better off utilizing a weapon which did not allow opposing goalies seemingly weeks to get set and in position. Dolzhenkov is certainly a shoot-first player, and I don't think he'll ever be a player of much vision. But that's not why you're drafting him. I feel he has possible 2nd line upside, simply as a guy who can win battles down low and be a terror in the opposing crease and blast the puck, with the requisite skating to play with NHL skill guys. I'd say, you put him with two 2nd-line skill guys, let them set up the plays and just say: "ok big guy, your linemates are in charge of all the thinking, you just go to the net and, um... crush."

Not that Dolzhenkov is a player of no awareness, I'd say he's of above-average processing in the offensive zone and about average in the defensive zone. He's not a physical bone-crusher, though he clearly knows he's the strongest guy out there every time he's on the ice. Dolzhenkov does not look for the big hit, but again we cannot underestimate how much of a beast this kid is. I've seen him simply give an opposing defender a little one-shouldered shove to get position and almost seem surprised as the player he just shoved goes soaring through the air like a deer just hit by a Mack truck.

I don't know what to say here. Normally, the MHL is under-scouted and there are draft steals all through the league, but one would have to think in the size-obsessed NHL, Dolzhenkov will be snatched up by some team by the early 2nd round. He's a project, but so was the Bionic Man and Dolzhenkov is physically stronger. I don't know if I would draft him in the early second round when there will be several high-end pure scorers available, but I'll definitely be ranking him in the top 50 range. There's a lot of risk in that Kirill Dolzhenkov is so far from his potential, but if he can refine the ancillary qualities of his game to become even an above-average 200 foot hockey player, his immense size and good skating will make him situationally indefensible in the crease and down low.​

this profile is gold

 

[My3Sons]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya MHL
With most draft-eligible forwards, the numbers which initially command one's attention are goals, assists and points. With Dolzhenkov, make no mistake -- the numbers which will likely see him drafted as early as the 2nd round are quite different: try 6'7-235. This is not a "forward with size". This is an absolute monster on skates. Only 17 with a late April birthday, who knows how huge this kid will be by the time he's ready to turn pro. Is he done growing? Will he hit the NHL at 6'8-255? Will anyone on the planet be able to move him out of a crease? Is he distant cousins with a yeti? These are just some of the questions a team drafting him will be trying to answer.

I should be talking about his abilities, but I enjoy the look in the eyes of some of the 5'8 and 5'9 forwards he lines up opposite of on the face-offs. Like: 'I'm supposed to tie up this guy off the draw???' Dolzhenkov's feet are as big as some MHL-ers' entire torsos. I think they fashion his skates out of repurposed sleds.

The fun does not stop here, because I would say Dolzhenkov is also a good skater -- not for his size, but for any size. While he will never be confused with Cale Makar, this kid can really get moving, though it takes him a few strides to hit top speeds. His agility is also pretty solid, and the combination of his size and mobility makes him, obviously, a rare forward prospect. His offensive game is focused on some shockingly deft puck skills and a devastatingly hard shot. Though -- like most big players his age -- Dolzhenkov's go-to stick handling move is to shield the defender with his enormous backside and use his simply immense wing-span to hold the puck out of reach like an adult playing "keep away" with a child, he is also capable of some slick little dangles when going to the net. His athleticism is also surprising for a young man still growing into such an enormous frame.

There may be no forward in the entire 2022 draft further away from their potential than Dolzhenkov, but you have to be intrigued by the possibilities. His shot is a howitzer, but the mechanics need to be cleaned up. It takes forever to get it off, and this is a guy who needs to be coached into the realization that his snap-shot is harder than most players' full wind-ups and he'd be better off utilizing a weapon which did not allow opposing goalies seemingly weeks to get set and in position. Dolzhenkov is certainly a shoot-first player, and I don't think he'll ever be a player of much vision. But that's not why you're drafting him. I feel he has possible 2nd line upside, simply as a guy who can win battles down low and be a terror in the opposing crease and blast the puck, with the requisite skating to play with NHL skill guys. I'd say, you put him with two 2nd-line skill guys, let them set up the plays and just say: "ok big guy, your linemates are in charge of all the thinking, you just go to the net and, um... crush."

Not that Dolzhenkov is a player of no awareness, I'd say he's of above-average processing in the offensive zone and about average in the defensive zone. He's not a physical bone-crusher, though he clearly knows he's the strongest guy out there every time he's on the ice. Dolzhenkov does not look for the big hit, but again we cannot underestimate how much of a beast this kid is. I've seen him simply give an opposing defender a little one-shouldered shove to get position and almost seem surprised as the player he just shoved goes soaring through the air like a deer just hit by a Mack truck.

I don't know what to say here. Normally, the MHL is under-scouted and there are draft steals all through the league, but one would have to think in the size-obsessed NHL, Dolzhenkov will be snatched up by some team by the early 2nd round. He's a project, but so was the Bionic Man and Dolzhenkov is physically stronger. I don't know if I would draft him in the early second round when there will be several high-end pure scorers available, but I'll definitely be ranking him in the top 50 range. There's a lot of risk in that Kirill Dolzhenkov is so far from his potential, but if he can refine the ancillary qualities of his game to become even an above-average 200 foot hockey player, his immense size and good skating will make him situationally indefensible in the crease and down low.​

Its hard to see this kind of player falling past the end of the first round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves , I feel like every review you've done is on prospects that have the potential to "hit" as far as being NHL players go.

And I appreciate your work.

As you guys know, I always like to dwell on every prospect's potential ceiling because it's not only a good way to assess their potential, but also an optimistic one. Of course there is no possible way all 214 drafted players can succeed every year, but in the most core sense I'm rooting for all of them.

And thank you for the kind words -- which I sincerely appreciate. I kind of wanted to help make the Devils HFBoards one of the low-key best draft resources on the internet. In recent years, we had a couple of incredibly talented people also adding great work on prospects in @thethinglonger and @Guadana -- but they have more important life situations right now which preclude them from draft-writing. So, I've been trying to be extremely comprehensive in covering prospects to help make up for it so that, come draft day, you guys will have a nice resource. At least we still have @Guttersniped -- who is the best (and quickest) information research analyst we can possibly imagine. Also @Tao Jersey Jones who is just so great and comprehensive at covering the current group of Devils prospects.

 

[Eggtimer]

2022 Draft Profile:

LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya MHL
With most draft-eligible forwards, the numbers which initially command one's attention are goals, assists and points. With Dolzhenkov, make no mistake -- the numbers which will likely see him drafted as early as the 2nd round are quite different: try 6'7-235. This is not a "forward with size". This is an absolute monster on skates. Only 17 with a late April birthday, who knows how huge this kid will be by the time he's ready to turn pro. Is he done growing? Will he hit the NHL at 6'8-255? Will anyone on the planet be able to move him out of a crease? Is he distant cousins with a yeti? These are just some of the questions a team drafting him will be trying to answer.

I should be talking about his abilities, but I enjoy the look in the eyes of some of the 5'8 and 5'9 forwards he lines up opposite of on the face-offs. Like: 'I'm supposed to tie up this guy off the draw???' Dolzhenkov's feet are as big as some MHL-ers' entire torsos. I think they fashion his skates out of repurposed sleds.

The fun does not stop here, because I would say Dolzhenkov is also a good skater -- not for his size, but for any size. While he will never be confused with Cale Makar, this kid can really get moving, though it takes him a few strides to hit top speeds. His agility is also pretty solid, and the combination of his size and mobility makes him, obviously, a rare forward prospect. His offensive game is focused on some shockingly deft puck skills and a devastatingly hard shot. Though -- like most big players his age -- Dolzhenkov's go-to stick handling move is to shield the defender with his enormous backside and use his simply immense wing-span to hold the puck out of reach like an adult playing "keep away" with a child, he is also capable of some slick little dangles when going to the net. His athleticism is also surprising for a young man still growing into such an enormous frame.

There may be no forward in the entire 2022 draft further away from their potential than Dolzhenkov, but you have to be intrigued by the possibilities. His shot is a howitzer, but the mechanics need to be cleaned up. It takes forever to get it off, and this is a guy who needs to be coached into the realization that his snap-shot is harder than most players' full wind-ups and he'd be better off utilizing a weapon which did not allow opposing goalies seemingly weeks to get set and in position. Dolzhenkov is certainly a shoot-first player, and I don't think he'll ever be a player of much vision. But that's not why you're drafting him. I feel he has possible 2nd line upside, simply as a guy who can win battles down low and be a terror in the opposing crease and blast the puck, with the requisite skating to play with NHL skill guys. I'd say, you put him with two 2nd-line skill guys, let them set up the plays and just say: "ok big guy, your linemates are in charge of all the thinking, you just go to the net and, um... crush."

Not that Dolzhenkov is a player of no awareness, I'd say he's of above-average processing in the offensive zone and about average in the defensive zone. He's not a physical bone-crusher, though he clearly knows he's the strongest guy out there every time he's on the ice. Dolzhenkov does not look for the big hit, but again we cannot underestimate how much of a beast this kid is. I've seen him simply give an opposing defender a little one-shouldered shove to get position and almost seem surprised as the player he just shoved goes soaring through the air like a deer just hit by a Mack truck.

I don't know what to say here. Normally, the MHL is under-scouted and there are draft steals all through the league, but one would have to think in the size-obsessed NHL, Dolzhenkov will be snatched up by some team by the early 2nd round. He's a project, but so was the Bionic Man and Dolzhenkov is physically stronger. I don't know if I would draft him in the early second round when there will be several high-end pure scorers available, but I'll definitely be ranking him in the top 50 range. There's a lot of risk in that Kirill Dolzhenkov is so far from his potential, but if he can refine the ancillary qualities of his game to become even an above-average 200 foot hockey player, his immense size and good skating will make him situationally indefensible in the crease and down low.​

He's 17 and 6'7" 235 lbs..... unreal lol .

 

[StevenToddIves]

this profile is gold

Haha yeah, well we can paste it at the end of my resume for the next time The Sporting News is looking for a hockey draft writer.

 

[My3Sons]

Haha yeah, well we can paste it at the end of my resume for the next time The Sporting News is looking for a hockey draft writer.

my favorite part of your analysis is your discussion of the teams’ draft tendencies. It provides some real world approach to how a team will lean. I know that OTT and ANA tend towards old school size and strength from your reviews all thing being equal. It’s those insights which make it more than just a player review so thanks for going above and beyond for us. It’s always fascinating.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Its hard to see this kind of player falling past the end of the first round.

Dolzhenkov is very, very raw. You don't know you're getting an NHL-er here.

I think some people -- not you, but people who don't understand the draft and equate it to "throwing darts" -- conflate their own lack of knowledge about scouting with the entire process in general. But the fact is this -- when you're picking a guy in the first round, you're positive (or at least extremely confident) he's going to be an NHLer. Even in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you're pretty confident about a kid's chances, otherwise you wouldn't take him.

But in the later rounds, even the best scouts are saying IF a whole lot. Like: "IF this kid builds some core strength and learns to play better defense, it could play up his great skating and passing and help him reach his 2nd line NHL upside"; or "this player has great hockey IQ and compete level, so IF he can clean up his shooting and skating mechanics to play both tools up a notch, he'll be a good bottom 4 defender"; or whatever. I'm simplifying, but you get the picture.

With Dolzhenkov, there are a whole lot of IFs. But the question which I think will see him drafted by the 2nd or 3rd round -- well before most players with this many IFs -- is the big IF of: "what kind of player will we have IF he puts it all together?"

Dolzhenkov is 6'7-235, skates well and can blast the puck, plus he shows a pretty good aptitude for the game and a nice set of hands. The ultimate ceiling for this sort of player is unknown, because I don't think the NHL has ever seen a left winger quite like this. Imagine being a goalie being screened by him, or a defender trying to move him out of the crease. Then, when you factor in that he has the hands to deflect pucks and the aptitude to anticipate, react and get to rebounds? That's a weapon for your middle six right there, and a rare one.

But like I said, there are a lot of IFs with this kid, far more than your average 2nd or 3rd round pick. Still, I feel some team will take a chance because he's the kind of player who, if he hits, can make a scout's career.

 

[StevenToddIves]

He's 17 and 6'7" 235 lbs..... unreal lol .

Picture a tree with no leaves.

 

[My3Sons]

Dolzhenkov is very, very raw. You don't know you're getting an NHL-er here.

I think some people -- not you, but people who don't understand the draft and equate it to "throwing darts" -- conflate their own lack of knowledge about scouting with the entire process in general. But the fact is this -- when you're picking a guy in the first round, you're positive (or at least extremely confident) he's going to be an NHLer. Even in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, you're pretty confident about a kid's chances, otherwise you wouldn't take him.

But in the later rounds, even the best scouts are saying IF a whole lot. Like: "IF this kid builds some core strength and learns to play better defense, it could play up his great skating and passing and help him reach his 2nd line NHL upside"; or "this player has great hockey IQ and compete level, so IF he can clean up his shooting and skating mechanics to play both tools up a notch, he'll be a good bottom 4 defender"; or whatever. I'm simplifying, but you get the picture.

With Dolzhenkov, there are a whole lot of IFs. But the question which I think will see him drafted by the 2nd or 3rd round -- well before most players with this many IFs -- is the big IF of: "what kind of player will we have IF he puts it all together?"

Dolzhenkov is 6'7-235, skates well and can blast the puck, plus he shows a pretty good aptitude for the game and a nice set of hands. The ultimate ceiling for this sort of player is unknown, because I don't think the NHL has ever seen a left winger quite like this. Imagine being a goalie being screened by him, or a defender trying to move him out of the crease. Then, when you factor in that he has the hands to deflect pucks and the aptitude to anticipate, react and get to rebounds? That's a weapon for your middle six right there, and a rare one.

But like I said, there are a lot of IFs with this kid, far more than your average 2nd or 3rd round pick. Still, I feel some team will take a chance because he's the kind of player who, if he hits, can make a scout's career.

how would he compare to that DET draft pick from SWE from a couple of years ago? That might be a similar story?

 

[StevenToddIves]

my favorite part of your analysis is your discussion of the teams’ draft tendencies. It provides some real world approach to how a team will lean. I know that OTT and ANA tend towards old school size and strength from your reviews all thing being equal. It’s those insights which make it more than just a player review so thanks for going above and beyond for us. It’s always fascinating.

Anaheim is under new management, and will no longer be the most predictable team come draft day. I'm really curious to see what new GM Patty Verbeek does at the draft table.

Regime changes make teams tricky to anticipate. We need to keep in mind that, although Verbeek is bringing in some new people of his own, the Ducks scouting staff remains largely the same as it was under Murray. So, there might still be an "old school" preference in drafting bigger and more physical players.

A good example is the Arizona Coyotes -- who had a front office run for years by the worst GM in all of sports in John Chayka. If you didn't subscribe to his theory that 1) Analytics Are Everything and 2) Chayka's Analytic Approach Is The Best On Earth, you were out of a job. So, Arizona essentially filled their front office and scouting teams with complete boneheads and sycophants, which led to years of futility on the ice and in the draft room. The last two drafts Arizona still had maybe the worst overall draft in the entire NHL even though Chayka is no longer there -- but many of his scouts still remain.

A famous example would be when the Devils were changing regimes from Lamoriello to Shero. It was David Conte's last year as scouting director -- and he knew it -- but still reportedly fought hard to draft Pavel Zacha when Shero's people reportedly wanted Mathew Barzal. Conte reportedly won that battle, and we all know how that worked out.

So, when I'm doing a mock draft this year, where Anaheim would (as of today) pick #14, I'm going to be looking at not just their organizational need, but also their prior tendencies even though there is a new sheriff in town. A more physical defender like Ryan Chesley or an old-school power forward like Nathan Gaucher still could be the pick here.

 

[StevenToddIves]

how would he compare to that DET draft pick from SWE from a couple of years ago? That might be a similar story?

You're talking about LW Elmer Soderblom, whom I believe was a 6th round pick in 2019.

Yes, I suppose there are some similarities. Soderblom looks like a great pick right now, he's been very good in tournament play and has topped the 20-goal plateau this year in the SHL, which is no easy feat. He was raw as a player (which is why he lasted to the 6th round), and has developed quite nicely thus far.

I would give Dolzhenkov greater upside, however. He's bigger -- though the height is the same, Soderblom was like 6'7-200 when he was drafted, very thin. Dolzhenkov is built like a Kodiak bear. He's also got an even better shot and is a better skater. Though neither Soderblom nor Dolzhenkov are what I would call a "physical player", Dolzhenkov seems to be more aware that his size and strength are a great, great benefit in certain areas of the game.

 

[My3Sons]

You're talking about LW Elmer Soderblom, whom I believe was a 6th round pick in 2019.

Yes, I suppose there are some similarities. Soderblom looks like a great pick right now, he's been very good in tournament play and has topped the 20-goal plateau this year in the SHL, which is no easy feat. He was raw as a player (which is why he lasted to the 6th round), and has developed quite nicely thus far.

I would give Dolzhenkov greater upside, however. He's bigger -- though the height is the same, Soderblom was like 6'7-200 when he was drafted, very thin. Dolzhenkov is built like a Kodiak bear. He's also got an even better shot and is a better skater. Though neither Soderblom nor Dolzhenkov are what I would call a "physical player", Dolzhenkov seems to be more aware that his size and strength are a great, great benefit in certain areas of the game.

yes. That’s the guy. I think his development will inspire another team to think the same can happen for the Russian kid. That said I don’t doubt his “ifs” will require a team to look very closely before picking him. Then of course there is the new Russian factor which will probably cause some teams to knock him down a round or two.

 

[Saucerhead Tharpe]

Anaheim is under new management, and will no longer be the most predictable team come draft day. I'm really curious to see what new GM Patty Verbeek does at the draft table.

Regime changes make teams tricky to anticipate. We need to keep in mind that, although Verbeek is bringing in some new people of his own, the Ducks scouting staff remains largely the same as it was under Murray. So, there might still be an "old school" preference in drafting bigger and more physical players.

A good example is the Arizona Coyotes -- who had a front office run for years by the worst GM in all of sports in John Chayka. If you didn't subscribe to his theory that 1) Analytics Are Everything and 2) Chayka's Analytic Approach Is The Best On Earth, you were out of a job. So, Arizona essentially filled their front office and scouting teams with complete boneheads and sycophants, which led to years of futility on the ice and in the draft room. The last two drafts Arizona still had maybe the worst overall draft in the entire NHL even though Chayka is no longer there -- but many of his scouts still remain.

A famous example would be when the Devils were changing regimes from Lamoriello to Shero. It was David Conte's last year as scouting director -- and he knew it -- but still reportedly fought hard to draft Pavel Zacha when Shero's people reportedly wanted Mathew Barzal. Conte reportedly won that battle, and we all know how that worked out.

So, when I'm doing a mock draft this year, where Anaheim would (as of today) pick #14, I'm going to be looking at not just their organizational need, but also their prior tendencies even though there is a new sheriff in town. A more physical defender like Ryan Chesley or an old-school power forward like Nathan Gaucher still could be the pick here.

Is this true? How come this is the first time I'm hearing about it? I mean, I remember a Conte quote that made it sound like he (Conte) thought Zacha would be a stud in the NHL, but I don't remember Shero's hires saying they wanted Barzal.

 

[StevenToddIves]

yes. That’s the guy. I think his development will inspire another team to think the same can happen for the Russian kid. That said I don’t doubt his “ifs” will require a team to look very closely before picking him. Then of course there is the new Russian factor which will probably cause some teams to knock him down a round or two.

The Russian conflict is certainly going to be a factor in the draft. Several teams are already adverse to drafting Russians -- Ottawa and Anaheim over the last 15 years in particular. We might see some teams decide to cross Russian names off their draft lists completely. This is speculation, and I really don't know. But the current conflict certainly can't help the Russian prospects in the draft, so we have to assume the opposite.

Danila Yurov and Ivan Miroshnichenko could drop out of the top 10 altogether. Players who deserve first round selections like Alexander Perevalov and Gleb Trikozov could fall to the 2nd round, or later. So what happens to the "project picks" and "upside picks" from Russia? Your guess is as good as mine.

As for me, I'm just going to rank the players where I feel they belong, regardless of nationality. To me, Yurov and Perevalov and Trikozov are top picks, period. But we might see them all drafted below where I have them ranked, and we should keep in mind such a possibility.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Is this true? How come this is the first time I'm hearing about it? I mean, I remember a Conte quote that made it sound like he (Conte) thought Zacha would be a stud in the NHL, but I don't remember Shero's hires saying they wanted Barzal.

It's speculative, but a lot has been written. I'd google it, since I'm not exactly a beat reporter.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

LD Alexander Pelevin, Chaika MHL
Pelevin is a player who has really impressed me in limited viewings as being a player who defies what you initially expect out of him. At just 5'11-175 and with a primary physical asset of terrific skating ability, you think you're about to watch one of the "new age" offensive defender define his game with risk-taking and offensive generation. Then you just see him hitting everything he can like a wrecking ball while playing absolutely tenacious defense and you realize you're watching a pretty unique hockey prospect.

Pelevin is a late May birthday, so he's on the younger side for the 2022 draft. He's a terrific skater -- fast and agile with excellent edges and quick-twitch acceleration. I'd say he's a tremendous athlete, because he's also pretty solid for his size and I've seen him level much bigger MHL opponents. Everything about his game is fast and hard -- he's a high-compete defenseman who never gives an inch in puck and positional battles. His physicality for a sub-6'0 blueliner is very uncommon and a joy to watch. He simply doesn't care that he's smaller than you, he's just going to outwork and out-battle you and come away with the puck. Sometimes, his overzealousness hurts him. He can go looking for the big hit -- especially on the rush -- and when he doesn't achieve his goal, he can leave his team out-manned down low. I feel this is a very enthusiastic and good defender who will learn to better pick his spots.

In transition, Pelevin is a dual threat who can beat you with his plus-passing and plus-puckhandling, and his speed his always a threat. He's a smart kid, though not an elite-awareness type. His passing vision is good but not a dazzling tool like you'd expect from a faster, smaller rearguard. Pelevin's lack of any sort of a shot also limits his offensive ceiling. I think he'll accumulate some decent point totals because of his strong defending which lends itself to his excellent transition game, but we're not looking at a power play staple here. Just a very good defender who injects a great deal of speed and hustle into the line-up.

Pelevin's rankings I would say average in the 3rd/4th round range and I feel he's a very good pick there. Though the Devils won't be picking many LD in 2022, some team will covet his speed and physicality and draft him in that range despite lack of size or high-end offensive upside. I feel Pelevin has a very high floor as a bottom pairing guy, and some mid-pairing upside. This is certainly a player I like a lot, and it's difficult to conceive that anyone would feel differently after watching him play his high-motor, physical and solid defensive game.

 

[StevenToddIves]

2022 Draft Profile:

C Ilya Kvochko, Magnitogorsk MHL
Every once in a while, there's a player who is terrific as an amateur for whom the only concern is how his particular skill set will translate to the higher levels. Ilya Kvochko is a perfect example of this. He's averaging a point per game as perhaps the best two-way center in the MHL and he's been absolutely dynamite in tournament play. But he's also a 5'9 center with so-so skating whose finest attribute is his defensive play, a task which will become far more difficult at higher levels when everyone he's assigned to defend is twice his size and quite possibly faster.

Kvochko has everything you'd want out of a player at his level. He's extremely smart and competitive, and routinely outworks and out-thinks his opponents in the defensive zone. Every decision he makes is the right decision, and his anticipation and positioning are both plus skills. He's a coaches dream. He's sneaky and very adept at baiting the puck-carrier to think he's not one step ahead of them when he is, which enables him to be great at stealing pucks with nifty stick-lifts and coming seemingly out of nowhere to pick off passes. I can't say it enough, Kvochko is a very smart kid.

Offensively, he's a pass first player with plus vision. He's a good but not great dangler, but his high IQ allows him to find space or make it, and all it takes is a small window of space for Kvochko to complete terrific dishes all over the ice. Kvochko is certainly more of a playmaker than scorer, and his shot is below average and something which needs work. Most of Kvochko's problems come from the fact that his brain is miles ahead of his athleticism. He'll anticipate the puck but be out-skated to it, he'll go to the right place for a puck battle but be out-muscled. But it's tough to find fault with a player who literally does everything right in theory and just sometimes fails in actual practice.

Kvochko's rankings generally fall in the late 2nd round to late 3rd round range. As much as I'm fond of this player, I do not take him so high. He would certainly be a consideration for me in the later rounds, because his advanced game processing and great motor give him a floor of at least an AHL depth center. But as smart and hard-working as he is, a lack of size, speed and shooting has to limit what we set as his ceiling. As such, Kvochko is a later round pick -- albeit one I'll be rooting for to exceed expectations all the way.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Here's a new mini mock with the Devils falling to #7 overall:

1 ARI C Wright
2 MTL LW Slafkovsky
3 SEA RD Jiricek
4 BUF RD Nemec
5 OTT C Cooley
6 PHI C Savoie
7 NJ LW Gauthier
8 CLB C Geekie
9 NYI RW Kemell
10 DET RW/C Nazar
11 SJ RW/C Lambert
12 WPG C McGroarty
13 CLB LW Yurov
14 ANH C Kasper
15 VAN RD Chesley
16 EDM LW Miroshnichenko

I have both Russians falling because of the conflict, which could affect the draft-day decisions of several teams. I have Gauthier to NJ yet again -- he makes a ton of sense, and his consensus ranking in the #15-#20 range is complete nonsense. The kid is a big-time goal-scorer with an outstanding power/interior game.

 

[Blackjack]

Here's a new mini mock with the Devils falling to #7 overall:

1 ARI C Wright
2 MTL LW Slafkovsky
3 SEA RD Jiricek
4 BUF RD Nemec
5 OTT C Cooley
6 PHI C Savoie
7 NJ LW Gauthier
8 CLB C Geekie
9 NYI RW Kemell
10 DET RW/C Nazar
11 SJ RW/C Lambert
12 WPG C McGroarty
13 CLB LW Yurov
14 ANH C Kasper
15 VAN RD Chesley
16 EDM LW Miroshnichenko

I have both Russians falling because of the conflict, which could affect the draft-day decisions of several teams. I have Gauthier to NJ yet again -- he makes a ton of sense, and his consensus ranking in the #15-#20 range is complete nonsense. The kid is a big-time goal-scorer with an outstanding power/interior game.

I would love for a hockey media meltdown like when Seider was picked and then two years later he's one of the best players from the draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I would love for a hockey media meltdown like when Seider was picked and then two years later he's one of the best players from the draft.

It would sure be something. The analytics set would be screaming for Kemell while the "big & fast" color-by-numbers-scouting-set would be screaming for Lambert.

But my choice here would be Gauthier. He's the top goal-scorer for this year's US-NTDP despite irregular PP time and being flipped through the top lines as the "get them going" guy. His shot is sick, his compete is off the charts, he's a great two-way winger and just incredibly physical and nasty to play against. His high-end play alongside skill guys like Cooley and Nazar lends to the belief that he could provide the same sort of space and finishing ability for Hughes and Bratt down the line. And of course, if someone cheap-shots Jack or Jesper, Gauthier would likely cream them.

 

[My3Sons]

It would sure be something. The analytics set would be screaming for Kemell while the "big & fast" color-by-numbers-scouting-set would be screaming for Lambert.

But my choice here would be Gauthier. He's the top goal-scorer for this year's US-NTDP despite irregular PP time and being flipped through the top lines as the "get them going" guy. His shot is sick, his compete is off the charts, he's a great two-way winger and just incredibly physical and nasty to play against. His high-end play alongside skill guys like Cooley and Nazar lends to the belief that he could provide the same sort of space and finishing ability for Hughes and Bratt down the line. And of course, if someone cheap-shots Jack or Jesper, Gauthier would likely cream them.

could they trade down if Jiricek is gone and maybe get an undervalued Gauthier and a shot at Chesley? Is that realistic?