Let's talk second round, STI! Two guys I'd love to hear your view on are Seamus Casey and Noah Östlund. I was sad last year with us passing on Morrow and Stankoven, however Casey and Östlund seem like this year's comparables respectively. Also, how does Casey compare to Rinzel in your opinion?
I currently have Ostlund at #49 and Casey at #57. Ostlund is a guy I always was quite high on, but I wanted to see him play against same-level competition. Well, he really shined in the U-18 and I'm certainly moving him up for my final rankings.
Casey is a guy I like, but I have concerns. He's solid both ways, but he doesn't stand out in any particular area, and he's got size/strength issues down low. Though he's more polished than RD like Rinzel, Lamoureux and Warren, I don't think I'd draft Casey with any of those guys still on the board.
Casey's upside to me is sort of Andy Greene-lite. He could go as early as the late 1st, but his likely destination is the 2nd round. But again, he's not the RD I'm targeting as the Devils.
Ostlund is more of a wild card. His elite skating/passing/puck-handling could see him go as high as the #20 range, but his small stature is likely to drop him to the #30-#45 range, where he would represent a potential huge steal.
However, there will be many potential steals where the Devils draft at #37, especially if the Russians fall due to the the tragic events in Europe right now. As high as Ostlund's upside is, it's not on the level of a Perevalov or Trikozov, much less Miroshnichenko. And if we're talking centers, if Owen Beck falls this is another player who I prefer even to Ostlund, who if he were two inches taller he'd be a likely top 15 pick.
And of course, there are the RDs -- especially if the Devils go the expected route and take Slafkovsky in the 1st round. Since you asked about Sam Rinzel, he's a very intriguing prospect. Though I am normally wary of drafting players based primarily on size/speed combinations, you simply have to pay attention to a 6'4 RD who skates like the wind. But he's also a tremendous transition defender, flashy puck-handler, excellent shooter and absolutely explosive team-driving force in the offensive zone. There are certainly shades of Scott Morrow, who was an absolute steal for Carolina last year at #40 overall.
Rinzel's lack of high end competition last year -- save for a season-ending short stint with Waterloo of the USHL -- certainly got him into bad habits, especially in transitional defense and sustained defense, which he will need to be coached out of. He needs to be more focused and aggressive in his gaps and closures. But the upside is real, and it is tremendous. On this basis, I certainly draft him over Sean Casey -- a more polished player who is clearly superior to Rinzel now, but lacks the high-end abilities with and without the puck which Rinzel can dazzle you with.
