Prospect Info: 2022 8OA, Marco Kasper

[OldnotDeadWings]

Marco is going to make progress next season regardless of where he plays. The question of where he or any prospect should play to best advance his career has to be balanced by how much that decision affects the Wings. There's little doubt in my mind that Edvinsson playing 40-plus games last year would have made the Wings better than what they were, not by a lot but at least one point better. That's not being impatient to see a prospect, that's just seeing how effective he was when he came up and reasoning that some kind of switch wasn't flipped in late February, instantly at that point making him NHL ready after definitely not being ready until then. The way he looked at the end of the season was IMO very much how he looked in camp and preseason. And while in the long run it's not going to make any difference in Ed 's career, playing more games last season would have prepared him better to hit the ground running next season. We can blame the lack of injuries on him not being promoted earlier, but it was apparent in December that Lalonde was not happy with Holl and dissatisfaction with Walman wasn't just a late-season thing either.

Another factor is that while a general approach to development is fine, every prospect is unique. Seider's path was partly determined by Covid. Raymond's development in the SHL looked slow, at least partly because of injury. Edvinsson's need for surgery and rehab somewhat influenced off-season acquisitions that got in the way.. Kasper is not encumbered by any of those factors. The only encumbrance he has is that he didn't score enough points on one of the AHL's worst power plays to significantly boost his acceptable ES scoring. If people want to wait until he's indisputably ready to make a top six impact, they might be waiting until the GR coaching staff figure out how to run a PP.

There's also a fairly easy solution to being wrong about a prospect's readiness. If he's clearly struggling enough to not warrant regular ice time, you send him back down. Any young player scarred for life by such a humiliation is not likely to be worth the trouble of paying for his therapy. There's nothing wrong with a GM preparing for that possibility by signing guys often considered unnecessary roadblocks, but there's also nothing inherently wrong about a rookie sometimes looking like a rookie. The standard for promotion doesn't have to be, is he ready to thrive, to look like a seasoned vet right out of the gate; it can be, is he ready to compete and at least hold his own, contributing something more than an available alternative. Plenty of really good prospects are promoted or win jobs on that basis, including Soderblom. Hoglander in Vancouver won a full-time job for that reason and also went through demotion back to the AHL after more than 100 NHL games, somehow surviving that trauma to score 24 goals last season and look like a keeper.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

I don’t know why that proposition would be controversial. Playing more minutes is an important physical test for prospects. More importantly, you’re getting opportunities to play in special teams roles and a larger variety of five on five situations than you would at a higher level.

A large part of development is getting reps in, especially when you’re as young as a D+3 player. If the hope is to develop Kasper into a top six player, he’s better off at this age playing that role in the AHL. At a certain point you age out and have to sink or swim at the NHL level, but that’s not a D+3 problem.

It's not controversial, but the benefits are unprovable and therefore theoretical. For a player clearly not ready for the NHL, it's obviously better they play at an appropriate level. The closer they get to NHL calibre, the more balanced the equation gets and the more other factors have to be taken into account. In Kasper's case, has he advanced enough to be of benefit to the Wings? In terms of 5v5 play and possibly also PK, I think he has, due mainly to his having for his age an advanced number of reps vs. good pro competition. Three years' worth, which is as much as almost any prospect his age and more than any NA based prospect up to two years (and more) older than he is.

 

[Hen Kolland]

It's not controversial, but the benefits are unprovable and therefore theoretical. For a player clearly not ready for the NHL, it's obviously better they play at an appropriate level. The closer they get to NHL calibre, the more balanced the equation gets and the more other factors have to be taken into account. In Kasper's case, has he advanced enough to be of benefit to the Wings? In terms of 5v5 play and possibly also PK, I think he has, due mainly to his having for his age an advanced number of reps vs. good pro competition. Three years' worth, which is as much as almost any prospect his age and more than any NA based prospect up to two years (and more) older than he is.

For saying someone else's argument is unprovable, it is pretty bold of you to try to explain your side as a math equation using non-quantifiable and equally unprovable assumptions.

 

[newfy]

Ed came in and it was obvious he us head and shoulders better than anyone it named Seider. What was the reason to keep him in the ahl for so long? I believe the same stuff will happen to Danielsson, Kasper, and that magnificent Norwegian guy.

Out of Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall and Franzen only one spent some noticeable time in the NHL.

I wouldnt use Edvinsson as an example. He was supposed to be out until Decemberand came bacak way earlier than expected. If he wasnt hurt I bet they would've went into the season with him having a really good chance of making it.

I think they likely would be less worried about a forward coming in a little younger than a dman as well

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

For saying someone else's argument is unprovable, it is pretty bold of you to try to explain your side as a math equation using non-quantifiable and equally unprovable assumptions.

Lol, you're absolutely correct to point out the misuse of the word "equation", though at no time did I infer there were knowable actual values or outcomes.. I should have instead used a word that better represents what I was trying to say, like "debate" or "argument". Thanks for helping me clarify that.

 

[LongTimeDRWF]

Marco is going to make progress next season regardless of where he plays. The question of where he or any prospect should play to best advance his career has to be balanced by how much that decision affects the Wings. There's little doubt in my mind that Edvinsson playing 40-plus games last year would have made the Wings better than what they were, not by a lot but at least one point better. That's not being impatient to see a prospect, that's just seeing how effective he was when he came up and reasoning that some kind of switch wasn't flipped in late February, instantly at that point making him NHL ready after definitely not being ready until then. The way he looked at the end of the season was IMO very much how he looked in camp and preseason. And while in the long run it's not going to make any difference in Ed 's career, playing more games last season would have prepared him better to hit the ground running next season. We can blame the lack of injuries on him not being promoted earlier, but it was apparent in December that Lalonde was not happy with Holl and dissatisfaction with Walman wasn't just a late-season thing either.

Another factor is that while a general approach to development is fine, every prospect is unique. Seider's path was partly determined by Covid. Raymond's development in the SHL looked slow, at least partly because of injury. Edvinsson's need for surgery and rehab somewhat influenced off-season acquisitions that got in the way.. Kasper is not encumbered by any of those factors. The only encumbrance he has is that he didn't score enough points on one of the AHL's worst power plays to significantly boost his acceptable ES scoring. If people want to wait until he's indisputably ready to make a top six impact, they might be waiting until the GR coaching staff figure out how to run a PP.

There's also a fairly easy solution to being wrong about a prospect's readiness. If he's clearly struggling enough to not warrant regular ice time, you send him back down. Any young player scarred for life by such a humiliation is not likely to be worth the trouble of paying for his therapy. There's nothing wrong with a GM preparing for that possibility by signing guys often considered unnecessary roadblocks, but there's also nothing inherently wrong about a rookie sometimes looking like a rookie. The standard for promotion doesn't have to be, is he ready to thrive, to look like a seasoned vet right out of the gate; it can be, is he ready to compete and at least hold his own, contributing something more than an available alternative. Plenty of really good prospects are promoted or win jobs on that basis, including Soderblom. Hoglander in Vancouver won a full-time job for that reason and also went through demotion back to the AHL after more than 100 NHL games, somehow surviving that trauma to score 24 goals last season and look like a keeper.

I think the unexpected Husso injury and the arrival of a Petry (extra goalie and extra D) also upset the natural order of being able to shuffle prospects in and out of the lineup. The wings carried 3 goalies and 7-8 NHL defense men last year (and looking like this year too so far) which is restricting the use of veteran pressbox sitters which would allow for kids to partake. (You don't want the kids there at all if they can be playing meaningful hockey elsewhere, if they come up, play them)

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Carrying three goalies, one of whom wasn't able or capable of playing much of the season, was a pretty significant and understated roster problem.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

It's not controversial, but the benefits are unprovable and therefore theoretical. For a player clearly not ready for the NHL, it's obviously better they play at an appropriate level. The closer they get to NHL calibre, the more balanced the equation gets and the more other factors have to be taken into account. In Kasper's case, has he advanced enough to be of benefit to the Wings? In terms of 5v5 play and possibly also PK, I think he has, due mainly to his having for his age an advanced number of reps vs. good pro competition. Three years' worth, which is as much as almost any prospect his age and more than any NA based prospect up to two years (and more) older than he is.

I take your point generally that development is not an exact science. For a player like Kasper whose offense needs improvement, I think the benefit of playing big minutes in all situations in Grand Rapids very likely outweighs any benefits of jumping into a third line wing role in Detroit. He almost certainly would not get powerplay opportunities in Detroit. Behind Larkin, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen, Fischer, Motte, and Veleno, I think any penalty killing would be limited. I don’t think he would be in a great spot to round out his game in Detroit, and he’s not a good enough player today to really push the bottom six forward in any meaningful way. So I don’t see the point for either party honestly.

If he’s 24 years old with like 3 seasons of AHL hockey under his belt and production is stalling, sure throw him to the roster and see if he sinks or swims. That’s just not the case here though.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

I take your point generally that development is not an exact science. For a player like Kasper whose offense needs improvement, I think the benefit of playing big minutes in all situations in Grand Rapids very likely outweighs any benefits of jumping into a third line wing role in Detroit. He almost certainly would not get powerplay opportunities in Detroit. Behind Larkin, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen, Fischer, Motte, and Veleno, I think any penalty killing would be limited. I don’t think he would be in a great spot to round out his game in Detroit, and he’s not a good enough player today to really push the bottom six forward in any meaningful way. So I don’t see the point for either party honestly.

If he’s 24 years old with like 3 seasons of AHL hockey under his belt and production is stalling, sure throw him to the roster and see if he sinks or swims. That’s just not the case here though.

I get your point too. It's all part of the debate on something that never has unanimity. Also, I don't think Kasper would be hurt at all by playing at least half or even a full season in GR. The difference of opinion is on what we think he could add to Detroit's bottom six. At the very least, his speed, physicality and combativeness would be helpful IMO, and I think he's further along the skill curve than is believed by those who look primarily at his overall points. At ES he was as or more productive than other players at the same age in the AHL, including some first-round picks who were promoted during that season or the following season.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I take your point generally that development is not an exact science. For a player like Kasper whose offense needs improvement, I think the benefit of playing big minutes in all situations in Grand Rapids very likely outweighs any benefits of jumping into a third line wing role in Detroit. He almost certainly would not get powerplay opportunities in Detroit. Behind Larkin, Copp, Compher, Rasmussen, Fischer, Motte, and Veleno, I think any penalty killing would be limited. I don’t think he would be in a great spot to round out his game in Detroit, and he’s not a good enough player today to really push the bottom six forward in any meaningful way. So I don’t see the point for either party honestly.

If he’s 24 years old with like 3 seasons of AHL hockey under his belt and production is stalling, sure throw him to the roster and see if he sinks or swims. That’s just not the case here though.

I disagree about PP opportunities. Kasper would play net front on one of the PPs.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I disagree about PP opportunities. Kasper would play net front on one of the PPs.

Yeah, fair point. I could see net front second unit.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I get your point too. It's all part of the debate on something that never has unanimity. Also, I don't think Kasper would be hurt at all by playing at least half or even a full season in GR. The difference of opinion is on what we think he could add to Detroit's bottom six. At the very least, his speed, physicality and combativeness would be helpful IMO, and I think he's further along the skill curve than is believed by those who look primarily at his overall points. At ES he was as or more productive than many players at the same age in the AHL, including some first-round picks who were promoted during that season or the following season.

Fair. Let’s take for granted that Kasper’s play as of today would improve the bottom six (fwiw, I personally don’t think it really would, I think Ras, Fischer, and Motte are better players today. I personally could see Kasper outperforming a guy like Berggren over the course of the season, all ends of the ice considered, but I think it’s a close call).

Then to me the question becomes, is the benefit Kasper brings to the bottom six outweighed by the lack of opportunity in all situations that he’d get in the AHL? For me I think it would be, I’d much prefer that he continues to play the pivot and that he works on strengthening his ability to produce offense. If we’re trying to work a prospect into that 3LW role I’d sooner have Mazur there, I think that’s a more natural fit.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I disagree about PP opportunities. Kasper would play net front on one of the PPs.

He would not be gifted that role though. He would be fighting for it.

Kane, DeBrincat, Tarasenko are going to be the flanks. Seider and Gustavsson will be your QBs. Larkin will be in the bumper role. You could see Raymond in flank or bumper. You could see Berggren on the flank. You will see Compher either at the net front or bumper, my guess is net front.

So, you have one net front spot left with Rasmussen, Copp, and Veleno all being options. He will compete with those guys, and while he might win, odds are he has an uphill battle for the spot because we know how hockey works. I would wager that he isn't on the powerplay and that Copp will get that spot, much to the chagrin of people on this site. He's a good faceoff guy in the event that someone gets thrown out, he's got decent size, he's a vet that has earned the trust of the coaching staff, even if you don't feel he deserves it.

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

Fair. Let’s take for granted that Kasper’s play as of today would improve the bottom six (fwiw, I personally don’t think it really would, I think Ras, Fischer, and Motte are better players today. I personally could see Kasper outperforming a guy like Berggren over the course of the season, all ends of the ice considered, but I think it’s a close call).

Then to me the question becomes, is the benefit Kasper brings to the bottom six outweighed by the lack of opportunity in all situations that he’d get in the AHL? For me I think it would be, I’d much prefer that he continues to play the pivot and that he works on strengthening his ability to produce offense. If we’re trying to work a prospect into that 3LW role I’d sooner have Mazur there, I think that’s a more natural fit.

Good things to think about, but a couple of points. Last year, the Wings played their bottom six as much as almost any team, the disparity between TOI for first line and TOI for 4th line being smaller than most teams. Same situation in D pairing usage, third pair getting lots of playing time relative to other teams. Composition and usage of third lines was often changed up for matchup reasons, with guys like Sprong and Fabbri sometimes getting the short end of the stick for TOI. Injuries changed that somewhat, especially when Czarnik came up, but when the team was healthy there was some offensive depth in the bottom six. There are going to be situational opportunities for a bottom six C or RW that might not be there on other teams.

You left off Veleno from the list of guys Kasper might displace. I think it's entirely possible Veleno is moved later this summer, which would obviously create a 4C hole, with chances to play up in case of injury. And while Copp is a C, he spent a lot of time last season and during his career at LW. His versatility and perhaps even being better suited to LW might provide 3C opportunities. He'd be a good responsible linemate for a rookie C. We also have to wait and see whether Tarasenko is part of the top six, perhaps at LW. His moving up/changing position would create an obvious RW hole with only Fischer or a converted C or even MBN perhaps figuring in, as unlikely as that sounds.

No one is asking for Kasper to be gifted anything. All I think is required is an open mind to competition in camp and during the preseason. There are two things to keep in mind with him. One, is that while we might know what to expect from a veteran, we don't yet know Kasper's limits and how much he might improve over the course of a season as he gains experience. There is also going to be a learning curve and a period of adaptation in the NHL before we really know what Kasper is all about. Centers who bring physicality and defense to the table often take longer to establish themselves. From my point of view, the sooner that process gets started with Kasper, the better.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Fair. Let’s take for granted that Kasper’s play as of today would improve the bottom six (fwiw, I personally don’t think it really would, I think Ras, Fischer, and Motte are better players today. I personally could see Kasper outperforming a guy like Berggren over the course of the season, all ends of the ice considered, but I think it’s a close call).

For serious?

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

For serious?

Entirely. I’d be floored if any of those players scored at a sub-.500 ppg pace in the AHL, and physically they all have years of full NHL seasons under their belt.

Edit: I’m gonna edit this before a page of hypos on how many points Rasmussen would produce in Bakersfield or something like that. I don’t Kasper, next season, would contribute significantly more offense than those players if deployed in a similar role. And I don’t think he’d kill penalties or move the dial 5v5 more than those players do in their roles. And I don’t think it would suit his development to do so regardless.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Entirely. I’d be floored if any of those players scored at a sub-.500 ppg pace in the AHL, and physically they all have years of full NHL seasons under their belt.

You’re focusing too much on Kasper’s points per game. It was much higher when he was healthy and played 1st/2nd line instead of the 3rd line minutes he got earlier in the year while coming back from injury and no camp.

Also, Veleno is a poor offensive player. Copp is slow and flubbed on so many scoring chances. Motte is a 10 point a season grinder. I think you give them way too much credit.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

You’re focusing too much on Kasper’s points per game. It was much higher when he was healthy and played 1st/2nd line instead of the 3rd line minutes he got earlier in the year while coming back from injury and no camp.

Also, Veleno is a poor offensive player. Copp is slow and flubbed on so many scoring chances. Motte is a 10 point a season grinder. I think you give them way too much credit.

If the goal is to deploy Kasper in a purely checking role like Motte or Fischer, my point is why bother replacing proven NHLers in those roles (who are likely better at those specific roles than Kasper, as of now) with a prospect who we hope will project higher in the lineup.

If the goal is to deploy Kasper in a role with more responsibility, my point is why him over proven NHLers or a player like Mazur who significantly out produced him .

We’ll see what happens in camp but I genuinely do not see the rush to put a guy in the NHL when he quite clearly has plenty of room for improvement at the AHL level.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

God forbid anybody actually watch the Grand Rapids Griffins play. Let's judge based on PPG alone...

 

[RabidBadger]

He would not be gifted that role though. He would be fighting for it.

Kane, DeBrincat, Tarasenko are going to be the flanks. Seider and Gustavsson will be your QBs. Larkin will be in the bumper role. You could see Raymond in flank or bumper. You could see Berggren on the flank. You will see Compher either at the net front or bumper, my guess is net front.

I'm not weighing in on Kasper's roll for the PP. I'm just happy to see a list of competent players to choose from so that our PP is not caca. How far we've come...

 

[jkutswings]

Can we just fast forward a few years to when the top handful of kids are head and shoulders better than the veteran bandaids?

In the words of Tom Petty: the waiting is the hardest part.

 

[izlez]

God forbid anybody actually watch the Grand Rapids Griffins play. Let's judge based on PPG alone...

Points Per Game ALONE???

AHL Games Played by Franzen and Nyquist are being heavily factored into Kasper's evaluation here.

 

[Hen Kolland]

God forbid anybody actually watch the Grand Rapids Griffins play. Let's judge based on PPG alone...

But at the same time, why is it hard to comprehend that Kasper is still 20 years old and likely nowhere near deserving of a guaranteed top 9 forward spot with a special teams role, and if that's the case, he's better served playing a f*** ton of ice time in Grand Rapids where he can hone in the skillset that he needs to actually be deserving of the spot people think that he could have?

The part that is also getting lost in all of this, which @Ed Ned and Leddy has tried to point out in part, Kasper might not even be the best player in system. There's a chance that Danielson and/or Mazur are just better hockey players than Kasper when we hit camp.

We should really stop talking about Kasper being better than NHLers with years of experience, contracts, and established roles, and instead focus on whether or not he's even first in line IF there is a spot available to be grabbed. The beauty of competition.

 

[Oddbob]

If the goal is to deploy Kasper in a purely checking role like Motte or Fischer, my point is why bother replacing proven NHLers in those roles (who are likely better at those specific roles than Kasper, as of now) with a prospect who we hope will project higher in the lineup.

If the goal is to deploy Kasper in a role with more responsibility, my point is why him over proven NHLers or a player like Mazur who significantly out produced him .

We’ll see what happens in camp but I genuinely do not see the rush to put a guy in the NHL when he quite clearly has plenty of room for improvement at the AHL level.

Because we are a rebuilding team, which should be when younger players who are near ready get a chance without injury being the reason. Playing in the NHL is also a great way to learn how to get better.

But at the same time, why is it hard to comprehend that Kasper is still 20 years old and likely nowhere near deserving of a guaranteed top 9 forward spot with a special teams role, and if that's the case, he's better served playing a f*** ton of ice time in Grand Rapids where he can hone in the skillset that he needs to actually be deserving of the spot people think that he could have?

The part that is also getting lost in all of this, which @Ed Ned and Leddy has tried to point out in part, Kasper might not even be the best player in system. There's a chance that Danielson and/or Mazur are just better hockey players than Kasper when we hit camp.

We should really stop talking about Kasper being better than NHLers with years of experience, contracts, and established roles, and instead focus on whether or not he's even first in line IF there is a spot available to be grabbed. The beauty of competition.

Can't see Mazur being physically ready for the NHL unless he bulked up a lot. He is way too light for the NHL based on the weight he was listed in the low 170s from what I saw.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Because we are a rebuilding team, which should be when younger players who are near ready get a chance without injury being the reason. Playing in the NHL is also a great way to learn how to get better.



Can't see Mazur being physically ready for the NHL unless he bulked up a lot. He is way too light for the NHL based on the weight he was listed in the low 170s from what I saw.

Mazur is more than fine to play in the NHL if his game is ready. Kasper is listed as 6'1 183 and Mazur is listed as 6'0 175 both on the Griffins site. We aren't talking about being significantly far apart, and Mazur didn't look outmatched playing against men in Grand Rapids.

Regarding the comment about younger players getting a chance without injury being the reason, Kasper will get that exact chance, but being a rebuilding team doesn't entail choosing the young player because they are young and near ready. It's choosing the young player because they make the team better. Look at Seider and Raymond for evidence of that.