Rumor: 2022-2023 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Let’s Run it Back!

[AllAboutAvs]

If Gibson was UFA I would have no problems whatsoever taking a chance on him even if he has had 3 bad years but I am not sure I am ready to spend the assets required to get him. There is a considerable risk with this guy.

 

[Foppa2118]

If Gibson was UFA I would have no problems whatsoever taking a chance on him even if he has had 3 bad years but I am not sure I am ready to spend the assets required to get him. There is a considerable risk with this guy.

I keep wondering what the trade price would be if they just take the gamble and trade for him at his full $6.4 cap hit? He's at the most buy low point of his career right now.

If it didn't work out and they had to buy him out, it'd cost $2,133,333 in dead cap space. Term would depend on when they bought him out. With the cap going up, and some good deals on the books, that might be manageable.

They've already won 1 Cup, so maybe it's worth the gamble to save better assets?

Another thing I keep wondering is if JML heard Annunen was the only prospect (not including Byram or Newhook) Joe wasn't willing to move at the deadline, because he knew Anaheim wanted him as part of a package for Gibson?

 

[The Kingslayer]

I keep wondering what the trade price would be if they just take the gamble and trade for him at his full $6.4 cap hit? He's at the most buy low point of his career right now.

If it didn't work out and they had to buy him out, it'd cost $2,133,333 in dead cap space. Term would depend on when they bought him out. With the cap going up, and some good deals on the books, that might be manageable.

They've already won 1 Cup, so maybe it's worth the gamble to save better assets?

Another thing I keep wondering is if JML heard Annunen was the only prospect (not including Byram or Newhook) Joe wasn't willing to move at the deadline, because he knew Anaheim wanted him as part of a package for Gibson?

First im hearing about this. Have to imagine in that package G+Annunen+something else for Gibson.

 

[Foppa2118]

First im hearing about this. Have to imagine in that package G+Annunen+something else for Gibson.

JML said it on Chiclets. Cued up here...

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I don't know how Colorado fits Manson in money wise. He's a nice player but spending $4M+ on a 4/5 type defenseman is what gets teams in trouble. He averaged 18:31 in the first two rounds but that dipped to 15:51 in the WCF + SCF.

To me you let him walk and maybe trade for Manson 2.0 next deadline.

I’m not a big Manson guy either.

He definitely contributed and had good moments, but I won’t loos any sleep if he moves on. Personally I felt like he had a lot of up and down moments in the postseason.

I would take him back for the right price though.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

If Gibson was UFA I would have no problems whatsoever taking a chance on him even if he has had 3 bad years but I am not sure I am ready to spend the assets required to get him. There is a considerable risk with this guy.

Exactly. To me it sounds insane someone would send Newhook and 1st for him.

Good goalie should have good stats in a poor team. No excuse.

 

[CalderKing21]

Seeing all of these cup winning problems makes me happy.
Very curious to see who we bring back and what we do at goalie.

 

[jabubenice]

I agree, Newhook should be seen as a winger, not a center. And that being the case, he should be on the table in trade talks for a 2C or goalie.

Regarding Girard, another angle to look at it from is that Byram could replace Toews on the top pairing, rather than replacing Girard on the 2nd pairing...

On the ice, Byram showed in the SCF that he can boss it on the big stage and with big minutes. We also increasingly saw him paired with Makar at 5v5, which will likely happen more and more moving forward.

Value-wise, you have Girard on a good contract in his prime for 5 years, but Toews for only two, so keeping Girard is perhaps the prudent move given that Girard offers long-term value and stability, unless of course you can sign Toews to a good extension.

That said, trading Toews before 2023 shouldn't really be an option as there's too much value there at $4.1m x2. Toews as a pending UFA in 2023 would effectively be another Barrie situation though, albeit at LHD instead of RHD. In that sense it might present a perfect opportunity for another 2C solution like Kadri, or perhaps for a younger 2C if the other team want to re-sign Toews long-term.

The main problem with that approach is that we'd have to wait until 2023 for a 2C solution via a Toews trade, but the Avs need a 2C for 2022-23 as well. That being the case maybe you mortgage the future with a futures package (something like Newhook + Olausson + 1st) for JT Miller to plug 2C for 2022-23, and then in 2023 you either re-sign Miller if possible or move Toews for a long-term 2C solution. That way you maximise the teams cup chances in 2022-23 while keeping all of Byram/Toews/Girard, and then roll with a top 4 of Byram-Makar and Girard-(Manson) long-term after getting solid value out of Toews as an asset instead of walking him to UFA.

I like it except for the bolded part, think u giving up way too much a player who jus might end up jus being a rental and u giving up 3 first rd picks for that. Maybe take out one??

 

[cinchronicity]

With 10.2 million in cap, you could easily add another veteran depth defenceman for under 2 million such as Edler, De Haan, or Braun. Behrens can start the following year.

Landeskog (7), MacKinnon (6.3), Rantanen (9.25)
Lehkonen (4), Kadri (7.5), Nichushkin (6)
Newhook (908K), Meyers (912 (k), Aube-Kubel/Kaut (1.225)
Cogliano (1), Helm (1), O'Connor (1.05)

Toews (4.1), Makar (9)
Byram (894K), EJ (6)
Edler (2), Manson (3.75)
JJ (800K), McDermid (987K)

Gibson (6.4)
Francouz (2)

or

Landeskog (7), MacKinnon (6.3), Rantanen (9.25)
Lehkonen (4), Kadri (7.5), Nichushkin (6)
Newhook (908K), Meyers (912 (k), Holtz (904K)
Cogliano (1), Helm (1), O'Connor (1.05)

Toews (4.1), Makar (9)
Byram (894K), EJ (6)
Edler (2), Manson (3.75)
JJ (800K),McDermid (987K)

Kuemper (5.5)
Francouz (2)

Where is Girard?

 

[UncleRisto]

I'd be okay with that.

 

[cinchronicity]

Because he solves the position for the mid term. I mean worst case he’s the same level goalie as Darcy and that’s all we need to win. I mean who else are we gonna sign? MAF? He’s done. Campbell? He’s not good enough. Husso? There’s some risk there.

They all have risk and you’d have to pay to get him. But he also presents far and away the highest upside.

You've hit it on the head. There really isn't a no-risk netminder out there. So paying assets for a question mark is a bit foolish. As for upside, a low priced goalie allows Sakic to increase the upside of the team in front of that goalie. Thus my interest in Husso. The cost for Kahkonen in San Jose ( he's an RFA) would likely be only a single 2nd round pick. I mention these 2 while keeping Annunen in the picture, and Parkilla as a goalie coach. That's an interesting Suomi influence, and it would give Mikko and Lehky a full foursome for golf.

 

[Richard88]

Toronto just extended Liljegren, and a lot of TML fans on the main board now seem adamant that Holl will be traded as the odd one out on their blueline, and for only like a 5th round pick or so.

I suggested it last week but with the Liljegren development I'll mention again that perhaps Holl would be a solid replacement for Manson if he doesn't re-sign.

The UFA market for bottom 4 Dmen is pretty limited, especially for RHS Dmen, and with a very manageable $2m1 contract Holl would be a realistic alternative for basically the same contract Ryan Murray got this year.

Holl gets a bit unfairly scapegoated by TML fans, but he has solid underlying metrics at 5v5 and on the PK, and has been serviceable in the top 4 when needed.

In terms of usage you could pair him with any of Toews/Byram/Girard on the middle or bottom pairing. Alternatively if you want Girard at 2RHD and also re-sign JJ then Holl could simply be the 7D insurance for EJ, though he'd most likely play ahead of JJ.

 

[Richard88]

You've hit it on the head. There really isn't a no-risk netminder out there. So paying assets for a question mark is a bit foolish. As for upside, a low priced goalie allows Sakic to increase the upside of the team in front of that goalie. Thus my interest in Husso. The cost for Kahkonen in San Jose ( he's an RFA) would likely be only a single 2nd round pick. I mention these 2 while keeping Annunen in the picture, and Parkilla as a goalie coach. That's an interesting Suomi influence, and it would give Mikko and Lehky a full foursome for golf.

Why would SJ trade Kahkonen? He seems like a solid solution for them in net after years of mediocrity with Jones, Reimer, Hill, etc.

 

[cinchronicity]

Why would SJ trade Kahkonen? He seems like a solid solution for them in net after years of mediocrity with Jones, Reimer, Hill, etc.

I was just pouring over the UFA and RFA goalies this summer. There is no good reason to trade Middleton then turn around and let Kahkonen walk for an RFA pick. It was more of a Finnish prayer than a reality. I'd be content with Husso. UFA, so no loss of assets. Low cost. Young enough. Potentially big upside. The Avs have to eat the risk Husso presents, and then roll around in the payroll savings.

If there is anything that this post-season taught us, it is that miraculous goalies are not enough to win the cup. Shesterkin wins the Vezina, loses in the ECF. Vasilevski is best active goalie, loses to Avs. A combination of Kuemper and Frankie goes 16-4. For a long time, I prayed for a game stealing goalie. I've come to think it is better to have a boring, stay at home tender who gives up very few muffins, rebounds and can actually move his glove hand.

 

[Murzu]

7,5M x 2 yrs? I'd feel a lot more comfortable if we had a 2C that can handle 1C duties. Malkin would be that. Injuries are a concern but that's how the Avs roll anyway.

 

[Richard Doll]

Kemp had ups and downs this year, but I am very hesitant to trade a first+ prospect for Kemp and then the very next year send a first+ for yet another goalie...

I don't think we should trade for any goalie this year. Re-sign Kemp or roll with Frankie and Annunen + some free agent vet and hope to hell Annunen is our future.

 

[Metallo]

My opinion on our UFAs...

1. Valeri Nichushkin - 62GP-25G-27A-52P - 27 y/o

Everybody agrees; the #1 priority of our UFAs. We've heard conflicting reports. You have Seravalli saying his playoff performance has priced himself out of Colorado. You have Friedman saying Nuke loves it in Denver, doesn't forget his hard times before joining our organization, and would like to return. Does a player like this justify a max term(8 year) contract from us? That's the question. Make no bones about it; teams will offer him 7 years, knowing there's not much tread on these tires and you're getting a proven catalyst(aka makes your players better) in the prime of his career. The Avs should look for a 5-6 year deal for Nuke, solidifying him in that second tier of contracts; your Johnsons at $6m, etc. If I was a betting man, I'd say he returns.

2. Nazem Kadri - 71GP-28G-59A-87P - 31 y/o

In my opinion, the most obvious player who is leaving. The Avs might try to make him a 2-3 year offer, but we probably don't even waste our time. Career year in points. Will be 32 when the season starts. Looking for the biggest payday of his career after a team-friendly $4.5m AAV for the past 6 years. Can get a 1C spot on a bad team looking to improve. Gone.

3. Andre Burakovsky - 80GP-22G-39A-61P - 27 y/o

I think he's a goner. He's an example of a player we had the luxury of having on our roster over the last couple of years as we've had the smaller contracts. With people getting paid now and over the next couple of years, I just don't see a future for Bura here. The team also proved they can win with him out of the lineup and a player like Lehkonen, though not as offensively dynamic, ultimately provides more to the team top to bottom in a secondary role. His money goes to Lehkonen on a new deal, pretty straight forward to me. Bura will be another guy that gets a sweet deal somewhere; career year across the board in every statistical category and just won his second Cup. Good age. Will get something silly from another team.

4. Darcy Kuemper - 57GP-37W-2.54GAA-.921sv%

Look, everybody knows I'm not a fan. I think we won in spite of him. The playoff numbers in particular, with a .902sv%, repeatedly allowing weak goals, and not getting timely saves cemented him as an average goaltender to me. In fact, he was the second worst goalie that faced a shot in the entire NHL playoffs if we just go by the numbers. Anyhow, I think the Avs try to bring him back again just like Grubauer. We will try to pay him in that same range, staying under $6m. We gave up a lot for him just a year ago, won the Cup, and I could see Joe trying to get some more return on his investment. Personally, I would just let him walk. We will have a weaker roster next year, it's the reality of winning a Cup and having 10 unrestricted free agents. I would pony up and trade for Gibson, giving our core the best chance to repeat as champions. I think Sakic will try to keep Kuemper and it's a 50/50 if he walks for a better deal at the last minute ala Gruby or if he sticks around.

5. Josh Manson - 67GP-6G-10A-16P - 30 y/o

Love him, think he fit us like a glove, would like to keep him, but I also believe he walks. A return to Anaheim is possible or anywhere that is going to pay him like a top 4 D, which we simply CANNOT afford to do. That's the reality. Makar, Girard, EJ and Toews getting "big" money already and we don't have the capacity to pay him with Bo coming up soon, too. This is an interesting one, because if EJ decided to play ball for the last year of his deal and go hide somewhere with a skin infection, we can bring Manson back. I still think it's a luxury. A trade of Girard makes this a bit easier, but I expect Manson to get paid. Could easily see a $30m/5y deal from somebody. I think he's gone.

6. Darren Helm - 68GP-7G-8A-15P - 35 y/o

Bring him back on another 1 year deal. Great to have on the 4th line, still has legs under him.

7. Andrew Cogliano - 74GP-4G-12A-16P - 35 y/o

Team hasn't told him anything about coming back, he wouldn't expect to hear about that now anyways. Would love to come back, wants to play another 2 seasons. Optimistic about getting a 2 year deal from somebody but would come back to Denver on a 1 year deal. I'm biased, but would obviously keep him for another year. Glue player, great wheels to fit our style, no issue with a Helm-Cogs-LOC 4th line.

8. Jack Johnson - 74GP-1G-8A-9P - 35 y/o

I don't think anybody expected him to be as serviceable as he was. I expected a lot more mistakes, but he showed that the issue was always overplaying him. In a limited role, he has tools to provide value. If he wants league min at $750k again, I'm more than happy with JMFJ back in a 7th D role.

9. Nico Sturm - 74GP-9G-11A-20P - 27 y/o

Thank you for your services, best of luck elsewhere. His playstyle never fit our team, always looked like an odd duckling out there. Gave me vibes of when Soda returned and looked slow, disengaged and a total opposite fit to what we've built. Definitely walking, would be shocked if we bring him back. With size, a 20 point season, playoff exposure, and a good age, somebody will give him 3rd line money and regret it in a few months. Weird player.

10. Ryan Murray - 37GP-0G-4A-4P - 28 y/o

What a disappointment. Oft-injured, as we knew he would be, but completely ineffective when he actually did play. We knew there wasn't much offense there, but he struggled to pass or make any quick decisions to support our fast transition style. A bad fit here. Nice dude, wish him well elsewhere and really hope he can revitalize his career a bit. Gone.

Very good analysis. Many guys priced themselves out. If Kuemper wants anything over something like 20M$ over the course of his contract, I say buh-bye.

 

[Richard88]

View attachment 563200

7,5M x 2 yrs? I'd feel a lot more comfortable if we had a 2C that can handle 1C duties. Malkin would be that. Injuries are a concern but that's how the Avs roll anyway.

If Malkin and possibly Letang are jumping ship Sakic should test how badly Crosby wants to stay in Pittsburgh...

Now that MacKinnon has won a cup on his own he wouldn't live as much in Crosby's shadow if he were to join the Avs and they won a few cups together.

 

[LOFIN]

Very good analysis. Many guys priced themselves out. If Kuemper wants anything over something like 20M$ over the course of his contract, I say buh-bye.

I'd be very hesitant to re-sign Kuemper for over 2 years in any case. In that time frame, we need to know if Annunen has the ability to step up or not. 1 full year in the AHL, one year as the backup. We reassess then. I wouldn't be freaking out if we went to next year with Frankie and Annunen, but that would probably mean we are going to keep Nuke + one of Kadri or Burakovsky. At this point, I might actually rather have that instead of re-signing Kuemper or trading for say Gibson.

Fleury or Husso are FA goalies I would target. Both of them should come under 5m (well below that actually) for 1 or 2 year deals.

 

[Foppberg]

View attachment 563200

7,5M x 2 yrs? I'd feel a lot more comfortable if we had a 2C that can handle 1C duties. Malkin would be that. Injuries are a concern but that's how the Avs roll anyway.

It'd be tight to fit him in salary cap wise & I'd rather have Kadri back if we're spending that kinda dough on a center... but I do love Malkin. Imagine a line with Nuke-Geno-Lehky? He could do whatever he wants with those two on the ice.

 

[Richard88]

Speaking of Pittsburgh... How about Tristan Jarry?

If Malkin leaves and they can sign another goalie maybe Pittsburgh would be amendable to trading Jarry, who has one year to UFA.

Jarry has 1 year remaining at a $3.5m AAV which is identical to Kuemper's caphit this year so it's right in the sweet spot for how much Sakic tends to like to pay his starter (also see Grubauer at $3.33mx3).

 

[Richard Doll]

Burky will be gone for sure, no room for him for the money he will want and what he actually brings.

The Avs practically begged him to become a top line winger, gave him multiple opportunities, and he was just not consistent enough offensively and offers nearly nothing defensively.

Nuke on the other hand HAS earned the right to be an all the time top 6 guy, his confidence is through the roof, his defense is fantastic and his offense has caught up enough.

Lehkonen looks like he should be a middle 6 guy and see a lot of minutes on the second line.

I would give Newhook Burkies minutes and see what happens, I think he can replace the game style Burky offered just fine.

Kadri is a tough one. I would pay to keep him, if we could, but just can't justify more than a 2-3 year deal at his age and someone else will "likely" offer more.

It would be great if Rantanen could become a 1-B center.

Landy,Nuke,Mak top line, Newhook,Leky,Rant second line, Myers, Olafson, vet free agent defensive player or JT third line.

I think JT is way to expensive to be a third line player, and think that money would be better spent elsewhere, but wouldn't slam my head in the wall if he played his last year of the deal on the third, and maybe was even extended in the 2 mill range.

Manson will command in the 4+ mill range. I would be ok keeping him, but only if Sammy was moved, not paying Manson that deal to be on the third pairing.

 

[Iceberg]

I'd be very hesitant to re-sign Kuemper for over 2 years in any case. In that time frame, we need to know if Annunen has the ability to step up or not. 1 full year in the AHL, one year as the backup. We reassess then. I wouldn't be freaking out if we went to next year with Frankie and Annunen, but that would probably mean we are going to keep Nuke + one of Kadri or Burakovsky. At this point, I might actually rather have that instead of re-signing Kuemper or trading for say Gibson.

Fleury or Husso are FA goalies I would target. Both of them should come under 5m (well below that actually) for 1 or 2 year deals.

I think the plan with Annunen is for him to be the starter in the AHL for two more years, while getting some NHL games when injuries hit, then he replaces Frankie as the NHL back up (as Frankie's two year deal expires).

My guess is Sakic will stick with DK on a 4-5 year deal, around 5M cap hit and if that is not enough money for DK, i could see Sakic looking for a one year solution (Varlamov, Holtby, Fleury).

 

[BaconNater]

It's too bad Danault wasn't a UFA this summer

 

[Hasbro]

Kemp had ups and downs this year, but I am very hesitant to trade a first+ prospect for Kemp and then the very next year send a first+ for yet another goalie...

I don't think we should trade for any goalie this year. Re-sign Kemp or roll with Frankie and Annunen + some free agent vet and hope to hell Annunen is our future.

Sunk cost.

Anyway it's the #32 and Timmins with iffy health now.