2022-2023 OHL season prediction thread

[OHL4Life]

There should be a pre training camp thread just for fun, and then another thread with a Sept 29 deadline for reals. Because this is just way too early to predict anything. And yet, like a trainwreck, I get drawn in even though I know better. Lol.

Best to worst.

North Bay Battalion
Flint Firebirds
Owen Sound Attack
Peterborough Petes

Barrie Colts
Mississauga Steelheads
Hamilton Bulldogs
Guelph Storm
Sarnia Sting
Kitchener Rangers
Windsor Spitfires
London Knights
Ottawa 67'S
Niagara IceDogs
Kingston Frontenacs
Erie Otters

Sudbury Wolves
Oshawa Generals
Soo Greyhounds
Saginaw Spirit

that's a good list, I may place sudbury higher and erie lower, but those groupings are probably right. i think the soo, oshawa and saginaw will be playoff question marks. I could see hamilton fall only because they will or at least should sell lots of their guys.

 

[Devin]

Soo greyhounds will be the worst team in the league.

 

[ohloutsider]

It is going to be tougher to predict this year. Many teams returning lots of good quality players. A big pile of "good" teams this year but which teams will shake from the pile and make the moves to be a great team? That is the million dollar question.

Best part of this thread it does not cost you a nickel to take a stab at predicting the outcome.

I like others will wait past the preseason games before I throw my hat in the ring. I'm also struggling with with who the "H" will be good/great this year. Good luck!

 

[OMG67]

Threads like this can be fun, but there should be a general rule that if you're going to question other people's opinions/guesses, you should have to post your own guesses. Can't question other people but not be willing to post your own.

Predictions are for Gypsies!
- Toe Blake

 

[OMG67]

It is going to be tougher to predict this year. Many teams returning lots of good quality players. A big pile of "good" teams this year but which teams will shake from the pile and make the moves to be a great team? That is the million dollar question.

Best part of this thread it does not cost you a nickel to take a stab at predicting the outcome.

I like others will wait past the preseason games before I throw my hat in the ring. I'm also struggling with with who the "H" will be good/great this year. Good luck!

I think we also need to look at where the holes are on most teams and many have holes right now. In many cases, those holes either get filled internally by players stepping into roles you don’t see them capable of at this stage or they fill needs through player acquisition. We can’t possibly see that until after the exhibition schedule.

The one area I find interesting is the concept of “We are returning so many players this year.” I think that statement is used very loosely. Sure, a team may return 17 players but what 17 are they returning? Are they missing their top 6 guys from last Year? Or, are they returning their entire core group with ZERO exceptions?

This is why I find Ottawa an interesting topic. They lose Varga (a 4th line OA last year), Cranley (traded to Flint because he wasn’t a capable starter and will be an OA this year), Johnston (a waiver OA centre pickup that mostly played 3rd line minutes) and Gaidamak (an Import traded to Niagara after struggling to put up points in the 2nd half). They have Seven D-Men that played as their top 7 last year returning. They have their starting goalie returning (Donoso) who put up solid numbers for a below .500 team (11-9-1 2.82 .906).

They lose no significant players at all. They have an open OA spot they can use. They have an open Import spot they can use if Kasper doesn’t sign and stays in Rogle. Both of those spots are relatively cheap to fill. 16yo Cooper Foster won the NOJHL Trophy for Best Overall Team Player after scoring 60 points in 38 games (5th in league scoring) for SOO Thunderbirds. You have to think he will make a push for ice that isn’t available for him right now.

They are missing one key piece and that is the #1/2 Centre and a puck moving D-Man (assuming Mews can’t step into that role as a rookie). They have loads of pick capital to draw upon if necessary.

So, this is why I find it difficult to justify the 67’s being dropped down to anywhere from 6th to 10th in the Eastern Conference predictions. Just trying to provide some insight.

I, like many others, will do my predictions once we see the rosters more developed. I know someone mentioned Kitchener. They have a lot of commitments that can pull through and if that happens they could go from bottom feeder seller to home ice advantage jsut with contracts signed!

I think here are a couple sexy teams that are being discussed a little more and they tend to get the focus by most everyone. Then the rest just slot in based on where they finished last year. I really don’t think people are looking at teams any more than that, especially those fans of teams in opposite conferences.

 

[Devin]

I think we also need to look at where the holes are on most teams and many have holes right now. In many cases, those holes either get filled internally by players stepping into roles you don’t see them capable of at this stage or they fill needs through player acquisition. We can’t possibly see that until after the exhibition schedule.

The one area I find interesting is the concept of “We are returning so many players this year.” I think that statement is used very loosely. Sure, a team may return 17 players but what 17 are they returning? Are they missing their top 6 guys from last Year? Or, are they returning their entire core group with ZERO exceptions?

This is why I find Ottawa an interesting topic. They lose Varga (a 4th line OA last year), Cranley (traded to Flint because he wasn’t a capable starter and will be an OA this year), Johnston (a waiver OA centre pickup that mostly played 3rd line minutes) and Gaidamak (an Import traded to Niagara after struggling to put up points in the 2nd half). They have Seven D-Men that played as their top 7 last year returning. They have their starting goalie returning (Donoso) who put up solid numbers for a below .500 team (11-9-1 2.82 .906).

They lose no significant players at all. They have an open OA spot they can use. They have an open Import spot they can use if Kasper doesn’t sign and stays in Rogle. Both of those spots are relatively cheap to fill. 16yo Cooper Foster won the NOJHL Trophy for Best Overall Team Player after scoring 60 points in 38 games (5th in league scoring) for SOO Thunderbirds. You have to think he will make a push for ice that isn’t available for him right now.

They are missing one key piece and that is the #1/2 Centre and a puck moving D-Man (assuming Mews can’t step into that role as a rookie). They have loads of pick capital to draw upon if necessary.

So, this is why I find it difficult to justify the 67’s being dropped down to anywhere from 6th to 10th in the Eastern Conference predictions. Just trying to provide some insight.

I, like many others, will do my predictions once we see the rosters more developed. I know someone mentioned Kitchener. They have a lot of commitments that can pull through and if that happens they could go from bottom feeder seller to home ice advantage jsut with contracts signed!

I think here are a couple sexy teams that are being discussed a little more and they tend to get the focus by most everyone. Then the rest just slot in based on where they finished last year. I really don’t think people are looking at teams any more than that, especially those fans of teams in opposite conferences.

But who was significant on Ottawa last season?

Like real significant. I count 2 players as just good… not spectacular.

 

[OHL Fan]

I agree that Ottawa may not be losing any significant players, but without replacing them with better players, a mid pack team will still be a mid pack team, especially if other teams have improved.

I hear Marco Kasper may be coming to Ott and there is still an OA spot available and maybe another stud gets traded there. So that may change things, but right now, Ottawa is like kissing your sister. LOL

 

[HockeyPops]

Soo greyhounds will be the worst team in the league.

In 2021, the Soo Greyhounds made not 1, not 2, but 3 selections in the 10th round. 3! Think about the studs we are about to add to our roster this year as a result. Make your predictions accordingly.

 

[OMG67]

But who was significant on Ottawa last season?

Like real significant. I count 2 players as just good… not spectacular.

Jack Beck had a medical condition last year and missed a heavy chunk of the season. He was a huge loss. When he went down, the Poles were a CHL Top-10 team. Should be strong and ready to play this season. Strong 50 goal candidate. He struggled a bit when he returned trying to get back into shape. My understanding was he was off skates entirely.

Rohrer was good enough as a 17 year old Import rookie to get picked 3rd round in the NHL draft. He is a dynamic skilled player that is likely to push to 80 points.

Boucher is a 10th overall pick to the Sens. He joined the team injured at the half way point and never was able to get on track because of his in and out of the lineup issues. Should be strong and ready to play this season. Heavy player. Punishes opposition players. Key impact type body That will probably score around 30 goals but not going to equal that in assists or even come close. Probably a 30-20-50 guy

Pinelli had an outstanding 16 year old season. Normal progression and more ice time from the beginning should get him to point per game.

Stonehouse had a very solid rookie season as well. Agitator that can put up points. Should grow offensively as Junior players do.

Tolnai is a solid player but with all the devastating injuries, it was unfair to expect him to carry the offensive load. There was a 2 month stretch where the team was completely lost playing multiple D-Men as forwards etc. He struggled to be the ONLY player with any experience up front at times. With healthy wingers around him that actually now have game experience, he is a likely candidate at a point per game. When the team was healthy last year and he actually had wingers to play with, he scored at a point per game pace while being their most relied on defensive centre.

The back end actually played well last year. Their Goals agaisnt wasn’t a big issue considering their two months from injury hell. It was their lack of scoring that hurt them. They could benefit from a puck mover but as some 67’s posters have mentioned, they feel Sirman could be that guy and Mews was drafted very high and projects to be that guy as well.

Donoso is a proven capable goalie. It took a while for the coaches to hand him the starter role and take it away from Cranley but once they did, he put up really solid numbers for such a young team.

Matier, Beck, Boucher, and Rohrer will all likely play for their respective teams at the WJHC.

There are going to be some very solid OHL players that find themselves on the trade black coming out of the Exhibition schedule or sooner. The sheer number of returning bodies with contracts is crazy. They have 23 returning signed players not including their two 1st rounders this year nor the potential for Kasper to join the team from the Import draft (although not likely going to happen). But, if Kasper does join the 67’s instead of continuing at Rogle, that changes the picture entirely. Bonafide 1st line centre that plays both sides of the puck and can score? Ouch. That could be a huge addition.

 

[Devin]

In 2021, the Soo Greyhounds made not 1, not 2, but 3 selections in the 10th round. 3! Think about the studs we are about to add to our roster this year as a result. Make your predictions accordingly.

There’s no way you get lucky again with all that late round crap.

East
Barrie (who else)
Petes
Fish
NB
Ottawa
Sudbury
Niagara
Ham
Kingston
Gennies

Don’t know the west and don’t care. Just know soo is looking like last place on paper with that lineup filled top to bottom if late round unproven players.

 

[OMG67]

I agree that Ottawa may not be losing any significant players, but without replacing them with better players, a mid pack team will still be a mid pack team, especially if other teams have improved.

I hear Marco Kasper may be coming to Ott and there is still an OA spot available and maybe another stud gets traded there. So that may change things, but right now, Ottawa is like kissing your sister. LOL

At this point, I doubt Kasper comes to Ottawa. IMO, I think they had a deal with the Senators in place but when the SENS traded their 7th overall pick in the Debrincat deal, that assurance fell through. I think Detroit will send him back to Rogle. Possible he still ends up in Ottawa with the Poles but doesn’t seem likely.

The OA spot and the pending Import spot is key. They will fill both for sure. Loads of pick capital available, not to mention highly capable OHL level players without roster spots on the horizon.

 

[dirty12]

I find it surprising that Ottawa has been placed so low on many lists so far. They return all seven D-Men, their starting goalie and all but a marginal OA Forward and an Import they traded to Niagara to be able to use their high Import pick in the latest draft (Kasper likely won’t join the team tho). Beck was injured for most of last season.

I know a lot of teams are returning a fair number of players but the 67’s are basically returning their entire roster or at least everyone of significance.

That said, the East does look deep so we may see a dog fight for the top 4-5 spots with very little separation. The West is the Conference that may look rather weak this season by comparison.

‘67s will be better, for sure. Beck will be a star imo, and probably Boucher in his way too.
But NB for example, likely returns 17, 19 if they choose that played in a conference final; and added a 19 yr old de-committed from Cornell. They even might get full seasons from Arnsby, Jackson, MacDonald, Mathurin.
Yet I ‘only’ picked them 3rd. I’d guess 7 teams from the east return a lot that improve; and, all could use the injury excuse last season.

 

[nelli27]

I'll start with the West:
1) Flint
2) Guelph
3) Sarnia
4) Owen Sound
5) Kitchener
6) Soo
7) Windsor
8) London
9) Erie
10) Saginaw

East:
Later

 

[Generalsupdates]

I think blatant homer-ism is a factor as well....but that's what fans do, over hype their teams, discredit others....all part of the game.

I'm fine with that tbh because if I go and say the Gens will be the best team ever this year and never lose a game, then when they do, I am proven wrong. But if I just shit on your opinion while never opening myself up by posting my own, that's a super lazy cop-out if you ask me

 

[OMG67]

‘67s will be better, for sure. Beck will be a star imo, and probably Boucher in his way too.
But NB for example, likely returns 17, 19 if they choose that played in a conference final; and added a 19 yr old de-committed from Cornell. They even might get full seasons from Arnsby, Jackson, MacDonald, Mathurin.
Yet I ‘only’ picked them 3rd. I’d guess 7 teams from the east return a lot that improve; and, all could use the injury excuse last season.

You have Peterborough finishing first. They finished 8th place last season. They added Lockhart which is a good acquisition. But, they lose Joe Carroll, Alfano and Kavanagh. With all due respect to Lockhart, Carroll was a far more important player with his size and leadership last year than Lockhart will be this year. Who cares about Kavanagh. No big deal. Expendable. But, Alfano was a solid young player with pretty good size. To me that is a net loss up front.

I agree that Peterborough deserves to be at or near the top because I see their progression and potential even though they finished 8th last season with basically the same team returning (sound familiar)?

Beck missed 28 games.
Boucher only played 24 games.

Doubling the games played for those two players alone is like adding a player to the 67’s roster.

I guess where I am confused is Peterborough goes from 8th to 1st with basically the same roster. Ottawa goes from 7th to maybe 6th with the same roster? Doesn’t sound right to me. That is unless the difference between 1st and 6th in the East is negligible.

North Bay loses Coe and Russell up front (70+ goals) and Ladd on defence. They are also going to lose an ‘02. They added? ZIPPO. NADDA. Still a good returning team though…

Barrie loses Tabak, Allenson, and Guzda as graduating OA’s. Foerster obviously gone. They have some solid OA candidates but the issue with that is they may also turn pro. Vierling, Cardwell, and MacDonnell could be back or could be gone. Who knows for sure? What did they add? A couple potential goalies but at best they replace Guzda. So even if they replace Guzda with one of those guys, they still need to replace two solid players in Tabak and Allenson but also Foerster? GLWT.

I will say that Missy returns the core of their roster for the most part. Normal progression will help that roster organically. To me, that team is probably the best positioned if only looking at what is coming back. Solid depth overall.

Niagara in 5th? Really? They were awful last year. They added a couple decent players but two or three decent players aren’t going to jettison that team past the 67’s. Not a chance. They need to give up one goal per game less than Ottawa did last year just to match what Ottawa did finishing 7th! That organization has a lot to improve on in general. A ton of distraction IMO. Plus they spent a lot of capital already. Are they willing/able to continue to spend capital to improve even more? Doubtful.

Kingston will be in tough. They lose most of the top half of their roster.

In the end, it is wayyyy too early to truly make a prediction so we can chalk this up under that. I’d like to see what Barrie returns for OA’s before I make a final judgement on them. I’d like to see how a couple of the younger players enter the season for Ottawa. Foster is a wildcard. Mews as well. Their pick capital is really heavy and with an OA spot open, they will add something relatively cheap.

Based on my thoughts about how teams will approach the season rather than judging current rosters, I think Missy, Petes, NB, Barrie and Ottawa are separated from the rest of the conference in some manner. I would be surprised if any other teams finish top 5. I’m not sold on NB and Barrie right now finishing at the top. They are both graduating some tough players to replace. I can’t see both of them working it out. Maybe one of them will. Petes and Ottawa are floating in the same boat. I see them head to head all season. To me the Eastern Division is a toss up between those two teams. They’ll likely have an easier divisional schedule too. I’m leaning towards Missy but I’m not too sure they will make the moves necessary to ultimately compete. None of the three in that division are loaded with picks.

 

[dirty12]

You have Peterborough finishing first. They finished 8th place last season. They added Lockhart which is a good acquisition. But, they lose Joe Carroll, Alfano and Kavanagh. With all due respect to Lockhart, Carroll was a far more important player with his size and leadership last year than Lockhart will be this year. Who cares about Kavanagh. No big deal. Expendable. But, Alfano was a solid young player with pretty good size. To me that is a net loss up front.

I agree that Peterborough deserves to be at or near the top because I see their progression and potential even though they finished 8th last season with basically the same team returning (sound familiar)? In

Beck missed 28 games.
Boucher only played 24 games.

Doubling the games played for those two players alone is like adding a player to the 67’s roster.

I guess where I am confused is Peterborough goes from 8th to 1st with basically the same roster. Ottawa goes from 7th to maybe 6th with the same roster? Doesn’t sound right to me. That is unless the difference between 1st and 6th in the East is negligible.

North Bay loses Coe and Russell up front (70+ goals) and Ladd on defence. They are also going to lose an ‘02. They added? ZIPPO. NADDA. Still a good returning team though…

Barrie loses Tabak, Allenson, and Guzda as graduating OA’s. Foerster obviously gone. They have some solid OA candidates but the issue with that is they may also turn pro. Vierling, Cardwell, and MacDonnell could be back or could be gone. Who knows for sure? What did they add? A couple potential goalies but at best they replace Guzda. So even if they replace Guzda with one of those guys, they still need to replace two solid players in Tabak and Allenson but also Foerster? GLWT.

I will say that Missy returns the core of their roster for the most part. Normal progression will help that roster organically. To me, that team is probably the best positioned if only looking at what is coming back. Solid depth overall.

Niagara in 5th? Really? They were awful last year. They added a couple decent players but two or three decent players aren’t going to jettison that team past the 67’s. Not a chance. They need to give up one goal per game less than Ottawa did last year just to match what Ottawa did finishing 7th! That organization has a lot to improve on in general. A ton of distraction IMO. Plus they spent a lot of capital already. Are they willing/able to continue to spend capital to improve even more? Doubtful.

Kingston will be in tough. They lose most of the top half of their roster.

In the end, it is wayyyy too early to truly make a prediction so we can chalk this up under that. I’d like to see what Barrie returns for OA’s before I make a final judgement on them. I’d like to see how a couple of the younger players enter the season for Ottawa. Foster is a wildcard. Mews as well. Their pick capital is really heavy and with an OA spot open, they will add something relatively cheap.

Based on my thoughts about how teams will approach the season rather than judging current rosters, I think Missy, Petes, NB, Barrie and Ottawa are separated from the rest of the conference in some manner. I would be surprised if any other teams finish top 5. I’m not sold on NB and Barrie right now finishing at the top. They are both graduating some tough players to replace. I can’t see both of them working it out. Maybe one of them will. Petes and Ottawa are floating in the same boat. I see them head to head all season. To me the Eastern Division is a toss up between those two teams. They’ll likely have an easier divisional schedule too. I’m leaning towards Missy but I’m not too sure they will make the moves necessary to ultimately compete. None of the three in that division are loaded with picks.

Every team can use the games missed excuse. Go see games played by Jackson, Arnsby, Mathurin, MacDonald for NB. The Petes probably missed more games than any other team.

I have, and will likely still have Petes #1 when the season starts because the Petes gained ground and nearly passed the ‘67s post deadline, and I believe 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference are from the central. Barrie, Miss, Niagara, & NB play one another 6-8 times.

Niagara moved what would have been their #5 D and 15th forward for 3-19 yr olds and 3-OAs. Zito & Dann would be first line C & LW for the ‘67s. Niagara improved more than any other team this off season imo; I can’t see how that is even debatable.

The colts quite simply, are loaded.

Boucher multiple times is the second ‘67s player you mention, then you state NB added ZIPPO/NADA in Ertel … hmmm. Mews & Foster are really no more worth a mention than any other 1st & 2nd picks from the past two drafts

 

[OMG67]

Every team can use the games missed excuse. Go see games played by Jackson, Arnsby, Mathurin, MacDonald for NB. The Petes probably missed more games than any other team.

I have, and will likely still have Petes #1 when the season starts because the Petes gained ground and nearly passed the ‘67s post deadline, and I believe 4 of the top 5 teams in the conference are from the central. Barrie, Miss, Niagara, & NB play one another 6-8 times.

Niagara moved what would have been their #5 D and 15th forward for 3-19 yr olds and 3-OAs. Zito & Dann would be first line C & LW for the ‘67s. Niagara improved more than any other team this off season imo; I can’t see how that is even debatable.

The colts quite simply, are loaded.

Boucher multiple times is the second ‘67s player you mention, then you state NB added ZIPPO/NADA in Ertel … hmmm. Mews & Foster are really no more worth a mention than any other 1st & 2nd picks from the past two drafts

Niagara:

Nolan Dann. Good player. (Two 2nds and a 5th)
Enright and Struthers out. Essentially two 3rds in. Enright a 19 yo 1st rounder…gone.
Pasquale Zito. Good player. (Two 2nds ++)
Nathan Ribau. Decent player. Nothing special.
Matthew Papais. Good player. Reasonable trade price.
Gaidamak. We know he was a 67’s cast off. Horrid 2nd half last year.
David Jesus. Great trade. I really like him a lot and the price fell in line with the Papais deal which is good.

IMO, Dann and Zito are good players but I don’t see them as anything more than point per game type guys. Maybe one of them because of the poor depth coming in gets enough quality ice to put up 80 points. Maybe. But the draft pick comp for point per game players is wowzers. Do they have any 2nd’s left? I like Jesus. He is a quality addition at the cost. Same with Papais.

Does Niagara have any trade capital left outside their 1st rounder this year? I have them already trading:
2nds x4
3rds x 3 (they get two back in another trade)
4ths x4 (plus a conditional)
5ths x2 (plus a conditional)
6ths x1

Jesus. After trading all that, you have them in 5th? They had to use all those picks to “catch up” to the middle? Sorry.

Gushkin? Gone.

They have added depth up front, granted but let’s be real. They have virtually nothing left of significant value for picks. They can’t add anything at this point. What you see is what you get. Done.

Ottawa:
Both Beck is right there with Dann on the Left side. Roll the dice on who is better. Beck got a Team Canada Summer camp invite. He is legit. I have him ahead of Dann and I don’t think many would argue.

I don’t like Ottawa down the middle. I’ve stated that previously. They need to add a top centre but they have the open OA spot and I expect they fill that spot with the OA. I will give you Zito but more by default. I would have Rohrer ahead of Zito but we can call it a draw. Tolnai isn’t a strong enough scorer to be a legit 2nd line centre on a competitive team. He fits the 3rd centre much better.

Ottawa also has five 2nds to draw from over the next three drafts. They have two 1sts picked this past season. With the depth on the blueline, there is already talk that Marrelli could be used in a deal if the pieces all fit.

Beck - Rohrer - Boucher
Pinelli - XXX - Stonehouse
TJ - Tolnai - XXX
Barlas, Foster, Gerrior, Gardiner

The back end is very strong on the defensive side. Plus the return of what was a pretty decent emerging goalie In Donoso.

They do need to add that Centre. One of the 2nd year players (likely Foster) will step up and fill that open RW slot. Same with most teams. Junior hockey progressions and all.

Regarding injuries, it wasn’t the total games lost so much as they all went down at the same time and the 67’s pretty much defaulted three-four weeks of the season. It was a shit show. They were CHL Top 10 team after the first month or so and then went 2-12-1 heading into the Christmas break when they all of a sudden decided to find the trainers room. Then the sale that followed at the deadline….

We disagree heartily. Although, I did miss Ertel because I was only looking at the Media Notes. Still doesn’t replace Coe and Russell‘S 70+ Goals in any significant way other than year over year player improvement.

The 67’s are pretty much starting exactly where they left off and are adding year over year player improvement. They have to replace 29 goals spread over three bodies…. A lot different than replacing 70+ goals over two bodies. Ottawa is basically starting about 25 goals back. And they haven’t added a body in the offseason other than the Priority Draft. Odds of that remaining status quo?

I would agree that Peterborough, Barrie, North Bay and Missisauga are deserving of top consideration. But Ottawa in 6th behind Niagara is a joke. Predictions for the season should take into account projected roster moves. Projecting based on status quo is silly. To me the only way what you are saying happens is if Ottawa stays status quo. Can’t see it. Niagara is likley to be sitting in that 6-7 slot at Christmas. They will have tough divisional play and are sitting in 4th (Division) going into Christmas break IMO. At the deadline they will likely end up trading away the players they added to recoup the picks they will need to rebuild their team. They will likely make the playoffs in the 8th slot.

Ottawa plays a depleted Hamilton and Kingston squad. Oshawa seems like a full rebuild heading into the deadline. I think there are way too many easy points for the 67’s and a hell of a lot of tough points for the Ice Dogs. Four teams in one division in the top 5 of the conference? No chance. Not with division heavy schedules. Erie may be a saving grace for Niagara with their geographical rivalry games.

 

[Uncle]

You have Peterborough finishing first. They finished 8th place last season. They added Lockhart which is a good acquisition. But, they lose Joe Carroll, Alfano and Kavanagh. With all due respect to Lockhart, Carroll was a far more important player with his size and leadership last year than Lockhart will be this year. Who cares about Kavanagh. No big deal. Expendable. But, Alfano was a solid young player with pretty good size. To me that is a net loss up front.

I agree that Peterborough deserves to be at or near the top because I see their progression and potential even though they finished 8th last season with basically the same team returning (sound familiar)?

Beck missed 28 games.
Boucher only played 24 games.

Doubling the games played for those two players alone is like adding a player to the 67’s roster.

I guess where I am confused is Peterborough goes from 8th to 1st with basically the same roster. Ottawa goes from 7th to maybe 6th with the same roster? Doesn’t sound right to me. That is unless the difference between 1st and 6th in the East is negligible.

North Bay loses Coe and Russell up front (70+ goals) and Ladd on defence. They are also going to lose an ‘02. They added? ZIPPO. NADDA. Still a good returning team though…

Barrie loses Tabak, Allenson, and Guzda as graduating OA’s. Foerster obviously gone. They have some solid OA candidates but the issue with that is they may also turn pro. Vierling, Cardwell, and MacDonnell could be back or could be gone. Who knows for sure? What did they add? A couple potential goalies but at best they replace Guzda. So even if they replace Guzda with one of those guys, they still need to replace two solid players in Tabak and Allenson but also Foerster? GLWT.

I will say that Missy returns the core of their roster for the most part. Normal progression will help that roster organically. To me, that team is probably the best positioned if only looking at what is coming back. Solid depth overall.

Niagara in 5th? Really? They were awful last year. They added a couple decent players but two or three decent players aren’t going to jettison that team past the 67’s. Not a chance. They need to give up one goal per game less than Ottawa did last year just to match what Ottawa did finishing 7th! That organization has a lot to improve on in general. A ton of distraction IMO. Plus they spent a lot of capital already. Are they willing/able to continue to spend capital to improve even more? Doubtful.

Kingston will be in tough. They lose most of the top half of their roster.

In the end, it is wayyyy too early to truly make a prediction so we can chalk this up under that. I’d like to see what Barrie returns for OA’s before I make a final judgement on them. I’d like to see how a couple of the younger players enter the season for Ottawa. Foster is a wildcard. Mews as well. Their pick capital is really heavy and with an OA spot open, they will add something relatively cheap.

Based on my thoughts about how teams will approach the season rather than judging current rosters, I think Missy, Petes, NB, Barrie and Ottawa are separated from the rest of the conference in some manner. I would be surprised if any other teams finish top 5. I’m not sold on NB and Barrie right now finishing at the top. They are both graduating some tough players to replace. I can’t see both of them working it out. Maybe one of them will. Petes and Ottawa are floating in the same boat. I see them head to head all season. To me the Eastern Division is a toss up between those two teams. They’ll likely have an easier divisional schedule too. I’m leaning towards Missy but I’m not too sure they will make the moves necessary to ultimately compete. None of the three in that division are loaded with picks.

Heard of 2003 born 3rd round NHL draft pick Justin Ertel? would be a top 3 player on Ottawa

 

[dirty12]

OMG,
No matter the pick cost, Niagara improved way more than Ottawa from the Christmas break to this point. The ‘67s may add, may be healthy all season, may get some sort of contribution from the 2005-06; or, may be so far removed from contention by the deadline that they sell.
The ‘67s added Boucher to the top six while subtracting two top 9 (now Icedogs) and potential OA D Belanger.
The Icedogs added six 2002-03 born to their top 9 making the ‘67s weaker to this point in the process though losing Guschin; and, added two needed physical OA D while subtracting a serviceable OA D and what would have been their #5 D.
That you have ‘05 born Pinelli as top six while Niagara does not project to have any ‘05 or ‘06 in the top nine should be an indication that the ‘67s are not currently as ready to compete as Niagara.
Is it coincidence that Gaidamak’s ‘horrid 2nd half’ coincided with Sirrizotti’s departure to Niagara?

 

[OHL4Life]

Niagara:

Nolan Dann. Good player. (Two 2nds and a 5th)
Enright and Struthers out. Essentially two 3rds in. Enright a 19 yo 1st rounder…gone.
Pasquale Zito. Good player. (Two 2nds ++)
Nathan Ribau. Decent player. Nothing special.
Matthew Papais. Good player. Reasonable trade price.
Gaidamak. We know he was a 67’s cast off. Horrid 2nd half last year.
David Jesus. Great trade. I really like him a lot and the price fell in line with the Papais deal which is good.

IMO, Dann and Zito are good players but I don’t see them as anything more than point per game type guys. Maybe one of them because of the poor depth coming in gets enough quality ice to put up 80 points. Maybe. But the draft pick comp for point per game players is wowzers. Do they have any 2nd’s left? I like Jesus. He is a quality addition at the cost. Same with Papais.

Does Niagara have any trade capital left outside their 1st rounder this year? I have them already trading:
2nds x4
3rds x 3 (they get two back in another trade)
4ths x4 (plus a conditional)
5ths x2 (plus a conditional)
6ths x1

Jesus. After trading all that, you have them in 5th? They had to use all those picks to “catch up” to the middle? Sorry.

Gushkin? Gone.

They have added depth up front, granted but let’s be real. They have virtually nothing left of significant value for picks. They can’t add anything at this point. What you see is what you get. Done.

Ottawa:
Both Beck is right there with Dann on the Left side. Roll the dice on who is better. Beck got a Team Canada Summer camp invite. He is legit. I have him ahead of Dann and I don’t think many would argue.

I don’t like Ottawa down the middle. I’ve stated that previously. They need to add a top centre but they have the open OA spot and I expect they fill that spot with the OA. I will give you Zito but more by default. I would have Rohrer ahead of Zito but we can call it a draw. Tolnai isn’t a strong enough scorer to be a legit 2nd line centre on a competitive team. He fits the 3rd centre much better.

Ottawa also has five 2nds to draw from over the next three drafts. They have two 1sts picked this past season. With the depth on the blueline, there is already talk that Marrelli could be used in a deal if the pieces all fit.

Beck - Rohrer - Boucher
Pinelli - XXX - Stonehouse
TJ - Tolnai - XXX
Barlas, Foster, Gerrior, Gardiner

The back end is very strong on the defensive side. Plus the return of what was a pretty decent emerging goalie In Donoso.

They do need to add that Centre. One of the 2nd year players (likely Foster) will step up and fill that open RW slot. Same with most teams. Junior hockey progressions and all.

Regarding injuries, it wasn’t the total games lost so much as they all went down at the same time and the 67’s pretty much defaulted three-four weeks of the season. It was a shit show. They were CHL Top 10 team after the first month or so and then went 2-12-1 heading into the Christmas break when they all of a sudden decided to find the trainers room. Then the sale that followed at the deadline….

We disagree heartily. Although, I did miss Ertel because I was only looking at the Media Notes. Still doesn’t replace Coe and Russell‘S 70+ Goals in any significant way other than year over year player improvement.

The 67’s are pretty much starting exactly where they left off and are adding year over year player improvement. They have to replace 29 goals spread over three bodies…. A lot different than replacing 70+ goals over two bodies. Ottawa is basically starting about 25 goals back. And they haven’t added a body in the offseason other than the Priority Draft. Odds of that remaining status quo?

I would agree that Peterborough, Barrie, North Bay and Missisauga are deserving of top consideration. But Ottawa in 6th behind Niagara is a joke. Predictions for the season should take into account projected roster moves. Projecting based on status quo is silly. To me the only way what you are saying happens is if Ottawa stays status quo. Can’t see it. Niagara is likley to be sitting in that 6-7 slot at Christmas. They will have tough divisional play and are sitting in 4th (Division) going into Christmas break IMO. At the deadline they will likely end up trading away the players they added to recoup the picks they will need to rebuild their team. They will likely make the playoffs in the 8th slot.

Ottawa plays a depleted Hamilton and Kingston squad. Oshawa seems like a full rebuild heading into the deadline. I think there are way too many easy points for the 67’s and a hell of a lot of tough points for the Ice Dogs. Four teams in one division in the top 5 of the conference? No chance. Not with division heavy schedules. Erie may be a saving grace for Niagara with their geographical rivalry games.

add in the fact that niagara has zero coaching or management experience in the ohl, the managers and coaches they do have have never really had a winning season anywhere. i dont know if there is a strong history for teams trading to become competitive, normally it takes a pretty strong coach to pull all the new pieces together and niagara does not have that at all. i figure they are 6/7th in the east, but if it starts poorly with all these new guys in a room who dont know each other i would be worried that it would be hard to build a cohesive group while losing.

i dont know that ottawa is much better, i think they lack higher end guys, boucher may be a 10th overall pick but he did not produce at all last year, even if he gets to a point a game, i think there are other teams who will have point a game guys on their second and third line, at least in the west anyways.

 

[OHL4Life]

Flint
Owen Sound
Windsor*
Kitchener
London
Sarnia
Guelph
Erie
Saginaw
Soo

Barrie
Peterborough
North Bay
Hamilton*
Mississauga
Ottawa
Niagara
Sudbury
Kingston
Oshawa

-if windsor loses johnson or maggio, or both, they will tumble down the standings and should see what they can
-erie and saginaw could flip pretty easy
-i could see hamitlon sell hard and they could fall to the bottom of the standings
-i think niagara, sudbry, kingston are all interchangeable

 

[OMG67]

OMG,
No matter the pick cost, Niagara improved way more than Ottawa from the Christmas break to this point. The ‘67s may add, may be healthy all season, may get some sort of contribution from the 2005-06; or, may be so far removed from contention by the deadline that they sell.
The ‘67s added Boucher to the top six while subtracting two top 9 (now Icedogs) and potential OA D Belanger.
The Icedogs added six 2002-03 born to their top 9 making the ‘67s weaker to this point in the process though losing Guschin; and, added two needed physical OA D while subtracting a serviceable OA D and what would have been their #5 D.
That you have ‘05 born Pinelli as top six while Niagara does not project to have any ‘05 or ‘06 in the top nine should be an indication that the ‘67s are not currently as ready to compete as Niagara.
Is it coincidence that Gaidamak’s ‘horrid 2nd half’ coincided with Sirrizotti’s departure to Niagara?

As I stated. Niagara has blown their load to the extent they are capable. Nothing of significant value left to trade. That team is what it is at this point. They’ve done enough to get themselves to somewhere around .500. They’ve added no top end talent, just solid OHLers and they‘ve emptied their draft cupboard for the next three seasons to do so. The organization is a mess. Granted, the team finally sold which is a good thing so they may be able to dig themselves out of their grave but let’s be realistic. What si their player development on and off the ice looking like at this point? I know Ottawa’s player development group is manning Team Canada at the World Juniors Right now. They are about as PRO as it gets at the Junior level.

Looking at a team that has completed its reconfiguration vs a team that hasn’t really even started filling in the gaps and projecting them as such throughout a season is folly. If you are going to forecast a Final Standings, you need to also account for player movement. You have not….at all. Ottawa has draft pick capital and a lot of extra bodies. I expect that some of those assets will be used as most teams do when they have them. Of the teams in the east that I project as challenging for the Conference lead, Ottawa easily has the most trade capital. I really don’t think it is close either.

Age of players is not as meaningful as you suggest. If Pinelli is as good a player at 17 as another player at 19 then so be it. I believe he proved himself last year as a 16 year old and players that make that sort of push as 16 year olds usually continue that push as 17 year olds. 18 year olds that score 40 points usually don’t push to 80 points as 19 year olds. It happens but not often enough to count on it unless there is some sort of mitigating factor. In many cases, they get their points on lower lines with less responsible opposition matchups. When they move to the higher lines they can’t handle the added responsibility and toughness of the opposition matchups. Pinelli played top 6 during the 2nd half of last season and performed admirably for a 16 year old.

If Ottawa finishes 2nd in their division and Niagara finishes 4th in their division but still finishes 5th in the Conference, I will chew off my left arm live on the Internet. That sort of occurrence is rare. Do you know how bad a division needs to be for their 2nd place finisher to finish lower than 5th? Typically it means the top six in the conference are within maybe 15 points top to bottom and the team in 6th is about 4 points out of 3rd. I don’t see that here.

I have Ottawa giving up in the neighbourhood of 190-200 goals next season. I’d be surprised if they give up more than 200. If they don’t add a front line centre then admittedly they will struggle to score enough to be a real challenger. But the back end on goal prevention is already in place. But they are deep enough on the wings that if they can acquire a front line centre capable of 80+ points, they will be formidable. I’d feel more confident if they were able to swap out one of their D-Men with someone a little more puck movement savvy but they are good enough on the back end to compete as is.

For Ottawa to finish 6th, I think they need to surrender 230 goals. I just don’t see that happening with this roster (assuming they add one capable centre).

I may not pay close enough attention to the entire league to get a full and true sense of where other teams stand; however, I have been around long enough to be able to assess where my home team stands. I’m no homer and I think many old schoolers will tell you I’ve taken a ton of heat “disrespecting” my home team when I’ve stated they aren’t very strong and will struggle (last offseason included). But, this team has a lot of intangible elements that don’t show in the stats. More than I’ve seen in many years. If they can add that one dynamic centre, I really think they will be formidable, even possibly enough to reach top of the conference. They have the pieces to acquire any two players they want if they choose to do so. Adding that centre and looking at the trashy division Ottawa is in this year, I think they are a 90+ point team. If they add something dynamic on the back end for puck movement then they could push closer to 100 points. Status quo? Tough to say but I’d add 15points to their previous season based on organic player development. So, 81 points give or take?

I have my Top 5 in no particular order:
Mississauga
Peterborough
Ottawa
North Bay
Barrie

Once the teams have posted their lineups to start the season and OA’s have committed as well as Imports, I will reassess but based on what I see now while also taking into consideration ability of player movement, that is your top 5 in the East. Could one of the Central Division teams fall flat on their face somehow and Niagara finishes 3rd in the division? Possibly. Likely? I don’t think so but if Barrie has all their OA’s turn pro (not likely) that could happen to them for sure.

 

[Ferda11]

IMO, Dann and Zito are good players but I don’t see them as anything more than point per game type guys. Maybe one of them because of the poor depth coming in gets enough quality ice to put up 80 points. Maybe. But the draft pick comp for point per game players is wowzers. Do they have any 2nd’s left? I like Jesus. He is a quality addition at the cost. Same with Papais.

I'll bet you a case of beer Nolan Dann exceeds 80 points.

 

[Devin]

As I stated. Niagara has blown their load to the extent they are capable. Nothing of significant value left to trade. That team is what it is at this point. They’ve done enough to get themselves to somewhere around .500. They’ve added no top end talent, just solid OHLers and they‘ve emptied their draft cupboard for the next three seasons to do so. The organization is a mess. Granted, the team finally sold which is a good thing so they may be able to dig themselves out of their grave but let’s be realistic. What si their player development on and off the ice looking like at this point? I know Ottawa’s player development group is manning Team Canada at the World Juniors Right now. They are about as PRO as it gets at the Junior level.

Looking at a team that has completed its reconfiguration vs a team that hasn’t really even started filling in the gaps and projecting them as such throughout a season is folly. If you are going to forecast a Final Standings, you need to also account for player movement. You have not….at all. Ottawa has draft pick capital and a lot of extra bodies. I expect that some of those assets will be used as most teams do when they have them. Of the teams in the east that I project as challenging for the Conference lead, Ottawa easily has the most trade capital. I really don’t think it is close either.

Age of players is not as meaningful as you suggest. If Pinelli is as good a player at 17 as another player at 19 then so be it. I believe he proved himself last year as a 16 year old and players that make that sort of push as 16 year olds usually continue that push as 17 year olds. 18 year olds that score 40 points usually don’t push to 80 points as 19 year olds. It happens but not often enough to count on it unless there is some sort of mitigating factor. In many cases, they get their points on lower lines with less responsible opposition matchups. When they move to the higher lines they can’t handle the added responsibility and toughness of the opposition matchups. Pinelli played top 6 during the 2nd half of last season and performed admirably for a 16 year old.

If Ottawa finishes 2nd in their division and Niagara finishes 4th in their division but still finishes 5th in the Conference, I will chew off my left arm live on the Internet. That sort of occurrence is rare. Do you know how bad a division needs to be for their 2nd place finisher to finish lower than 5th? Typically it means the top six in the conference are within maybe 15 points top to bottom and the team in 6th is about 4 points out of 3rd. I don’t see that here.

I have Ottawa giving up in the neighbourhood of 190-200 goals next season. I’d be surprised if they give up more than 200. If they don’t add a front line centre then admittedly they will struggle to score enough to be a real challenger. But the back end on goal prevention is already in place. But they are deep enough on the wings that if they can acquire a front line centre capable of 80+ points, they will be formidable. I’d feel more confident if they were able to swap out one of their D-Men with someone a little more puck movement savvy but they are good enough on the back end to compete as is.

For Ottawa to finish 6th, I think they need to surrender 230 goals. I just don’t see that happening with this roster (assuming they add one capable centre).

I may not pay close enough attention to the entire league to get a full and true sense of where other teams stand; however, I have been around long enough to be able to assess where my home team stands. I’m no homer and I think many old schoolers will tell you I’ve taken a ton of heat “disrespecting” my home team when I’ve stated they aren’t very strong and will struggle (last offseason included). But, this team has a lot of intangible elements that don’t show in the stats. More than I’ve seen in many years. If they can add that one dynamic centre, I really think they will be formidable, even possibly enough to reach top of the conference. They have the pieces to acquire any two players they want if they choose to do so. Adding that centre and looking at the trashy division Ottawa is in this year, I think they are a 90+ point team. If they add something dynamic on the back end for puck movement then they could push closer to 100 points. Status quo? Tough to say but I’d add 15points to their previous season based on organic player development. So, 81 points give or take?

I have my Top 5 in no particular order:
Mississauga
Peterborough
Ottawa
North Bay
Barrie

Once the teams have posted their lineups to start the season and OA’s have committed as well as Imports, I will reassess but based on what I see now while also taking into consideration ability of player movement, that is your top 5 in the East. Could one of the Central Division teams fall flat on their face somehow and Niagara finishes 3rd in the division? Possibly. Likely? I don’t think so but if Barrie has all their OA’s turn pro (not likely) that could happen to them for sure.

All 3 are back - Cardwell, Vierling and McDonnell. If any were going pro you’d know by now.

Lemieux is good but likely will be playing elsewhere unless he comes to camp looking the most improved.

 

[three dog night]

Won’t Niagara get most of their picks back when they rule Dickerson defected.