2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Louie the Blue]

I am just trying to figure out if the “suck only for 2-3 years” thing is realistic if we want to truly compete. I am having a hard time believing it. My logic brain says it’s too optimistic. My hopeful brain wants it to be true. So, I am looking at the supposed case studies to see if there is an validity to the hope. So far in the effort the logic brain hasn’t been terribly swayed.

Also, somewhat agreed about LA, but it depends how their D develop.

How do you feel about Boston?

They didn't tank, per se, they missed the POs with 90+ points for 2 seasons. In 2015, they also had 3 first round picks in the middle of the draft.

I know they had more leftover contributors from their SC winning and making core, including Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand, but I think they showed it's doable.

 

[Louie the Blue]

Completely irrelevant thought of the day:

I'll preface this by saying I believe Berube is a fantastic coach and there's not many coaches I would want in the NHL over him at the moment, however, is he the right coach to lead the Blues through a rebuild? I don't have any reason to believe he isn't given the development of young players since he's been here, but just a thought.

 

[bleedblue1223]

While I'm somewhat skeptical of what Berube was going to be able to do with the existing core without someone on the staff like Monty, I have 100% confidence that as we look to build with a relatively fresh core, that he's the guy to mold them. I think if we get the assistants right, we are in good shape as far as coaching goes.

Even if we wanted a change, unless we get Bedard, I'm not sure many of the top candidates would see that as an overly attractive location, they would like that Army and that foundation here is solid, but not many will want to sign up for a rebuild, top candidates will want their pick of the litter. I feel that Berube excels at man management, and I think that's the type of thing that you want when rebuilding with youth.

 

[BlueDream]

Completely irrelevant thought of the day:

I'll preface this by saying I believe Berube is a fantastic coach and there's not many coaches I would want in the NHL over him at the moment, however, is he the right coach to lead the Blues through a rebuild? I don't have any reason to believe he isn't given the development of young players since he's been here, but just a thought.

I think he’s fine. His entire mantra is essentially that he just wants his guys to play hard.

Isn’t that basically the only thing you want/require during a rebuild? If the players don’t play hard, then that isn’t the coach’s fault and we’ll know what players we need to ship out.

 

[STL fan in MN]

In the 14 games Brown has played, we've won 1 of them. Bedard here we come.

Holy crap!

That tells me either Brown is that bad that he hurts the team that much when he plays OR Brown is that bad that Chief will only put him in the lineup as a last resort when many others are injured (or traded away) and he only plays when the lineup is crap and thus unlikely to win.

I’m pretty sure it’s the 2nd one but damn is that not a good look for Brown either way.

 

[MissouriMook]

Looking at the standings and our roster, I think we could actually end up with the 5th worst record in the league. I don’t see us falling behind any of the teams that are already more than 10 games under .500 but I could see us going 8-18 in our last 26 games and dropping into the 5-7 range.

 

[Celtic Note]

I know they had more leftover contributors from their SC winning and making core, including Bergeron, Krejci, and Marchand, but I think they showed it's doable.

Boston has a core that took swigs from the fountain of youth. Its pretty impossible for the Blues to replicate that because their best core players are gone or already declining.

Boston showed that it was doable.

The Blues have shown it’s not really in the cards to follow their path.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Boston has a core that took swigs from the fountain of youth. Its pretty impossible for the Blues to replicate that because their best core players are gone or already declining.

Boston showed that it was doable.

The Blues have shown it’s not really in the cards to follow their path.

Besides the fountain of youth, it certainly helps to get your #1C to sign for a $2.5M AAV and your #2C to sign for $1M AAV.

But in looking at Boston’s roster, this year is their shot. They could very well be in the basement next season. Only a few of their key players are signed past this season. And those Bergeron and Kejci contracts will result in a bonus overage of $4.5M that’ll end up applying to their Cap next season.

Boston didn’t rebuild. They solidified their D with Lindbolm and then talked their 2 long term top centers to take sweetheart one-year deals. It’s not sustainable though.

 

[Mike Liut]

Besides the fountain of youth, it certainly helps to get your #1C to sign for a $2.5M AAV and your #2C to sign for $1M AAV.

But in looking at Boston’s roster, this year is their shot. They could very well be in the basement next season. Only a few of their key players are signed past this season. And those Bergeron and Kejci contracts will result in a bonus overage of $4.5M that’ll end up applying to their Cap next season.

Boston didn’t rebuild. They solidified their D with Lindbolm and then talked their 2 long term top centers to take sweetheart one-year deals. It’s not sustainable though.

They are going to fall hard

 

[Celtic Note]

Besides the fountain of youth, it certainly helps to get your #1C to sign for a $2.5M AAV and your #2C to sign for $1M AAV.

But in looking at Boston’s roster, this year is their shot. They could very well be in the basement next season. Only a few of their key players are signed past this season. And those Bergeron and Kejci contracts will result in a bonus overage of $4.5M that’ll end up applying to their Cap next season.

Boston didn’t rebuild. They solidified their D with Lindbolm and then talked their 2 long term top centers to take sweetheart one-year deals. It’s not sustainable though.

I thought I wrote that their time was up soon in that post, but apparently I just thought it.

Sleep deprivation is really the friend of a strong memory.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Holy crap!

That tells me either Brown is that bad that he hurts the team that much when he plays OR Brown is that bad that Chief will only put him in the lineup as a last resort when many others are injured (or traded away) and he only plays when the lineup is crap and thus unlikely to win.

I’m pretty sure it’s the 2nd one but damn is that not a good look for Brown either way.

i've been saying for weeks that he is key to the tank.

 

[Mike Liut]

Great tank weekend. Lost both games and ROR and Acciari are traded. I think we are definitely locked into the top 8 now, not counting the lottery.

 

[Majorityof1]

So out of curiosity/boredom, I decided to check how many games we could win and still drop below each team below us currently if they continued at their current point capture rate the rest of the season. We have 26 games left, so we'd have to lose 25 in regulation to get the #1 OA if these teams all keep the same point capture pace. We can do it!!!!

Here's the chart:

Position	Team	Point Capture	Projected Pts	Max Pts to finish below
1 and 2	Ana + Clb	.357	58	2
3	Chi	.373	61	5
4	SJ	.395	64	8
5	Ari	.420	68	12
6	Van	.429	70	14
7	Mon	.446	73	17
8	Phi	.474	77	21

 

[Celtic Note]

i've been saying for weeks that he is key to the tank.

When you have keys to a Pinto, you put the keys in the ignition and turn them.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

When you have keys to a Pinto, you put the keys in the ignition and turn them.

if he can play in all remaining games and we win at same rate, we are looking at top 5 pick.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Looking at the standings and our roster, I think we could actually end up with the 5th worst record in the league. I don’t see us falling behind any of the teams that are already more than 10 games under .500 but I could see us going 8-18 in our last 26 games and dropping into the 5-7 range.

Rooting hard for Philly, Montreal and Vancouver right now.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And Boston for the most part sucks at drafting. Yes, they've added guys like Pasta, McAvoy, and Carlo, and DeBrusk looks like he's finally turned a corner, but if that old core group didn't stay so good for so long, they'd be a disaster.

In 2015, there was a stacked 1st and 2nd round, they had 3 1st and 3 2nds, and they made 1 good pick in Carlo. Realistically, they could've had Chabot, Barzal, Connor, Carlo, Hintz, and Dunn/Andersson/Siegenthaler. Sure some of that is hindsight, but those are all players in similar positions that were taken shortly after their guy. All those guys would've been right there on their own board. Imagine if they selected 3 or 4 of those guys.

 

[BrokenFace]

So out of curiosity/boredom, I decided to check how many games we could win and still drop below each team below us currently if they continued at their current point capture rate the rest of the season. We have 26 games left, so we'd have to lose 25 in regulation to get the #1 OA if these teams all keep the same point capture pace. We can do it!!!!

Here's the chart:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Position[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Point Capture[/TD]
[TD]Projected Pts[/TD]
[TD]Max Pts to finish below[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 and 2[/TD]
[TD]Ana + Clb[/TD]
[TD].357[/TD]
[TD]58[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Chi[/TD]
[TD].373[/TD]
[TD]61[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]SJ[/TD]
[TD].395[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Ari[/TD]
[TD].420[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Van[/TD]
[TD].429[/TD]
[TD]70[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Mon[/TD]
[TD].446[/TD]
[TD]73[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Phi[/TD]
[TD].474[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Nice contribution! This is especially interesting to think about now because we SHOULD be dropping points at a higher rate after the trades we've made.

 

[Mike Liut]

Nice contribution! This is especially interesting to think about now because we SHOULD be dropping points at a higher rate after the trades we've made.

I’m not sure realistically how many more teams we can jump.

 

[Xerloris]

I’m not sure realistically how many more teams we can jump.

I think #6 and MAYBE 5 is the best we could possibly hope for but I think #5 is a little far fetched.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Rooting hard for Philly, Montreal and Vancouver right now.

Arizona won today and are 6 behind us. Go Coyotes.

 

[HighNote]

Obviously we want to drop as far down as we can, but these are the games I currently have circled as a must-lose:

2/23 - vs. VAN
3/2 - @ SJS
3/7 - @ ARI
3/9 - vs. SJS
3/21 - vs. DET
3/23 - @ DET
3/28 - vs. VAN
4/1 - @ NSH
4/4 - vs. PHI

The games against DET and NSH might not matter by the time we get to them, as they could have already pulled away from us, but they currently matter so I have them up there. On the flip side, I don't have the three games we play against ANA, CBJ, and CHI on there because currently it's pretty unrealistic that we catch any of them. We do not play MTL again, but that's ok because we lost both our games against them in regulation already, so we've already done all we can there.

Realistically speaking, I think the absolute lowest we can drop is 4th worst. But we probably end up somewhere from 5th-9th worst. That makes the games with VAN, ARI, and PHI the most important right now.

That means our odds at 1st overall currently fall somewhere from 5 and 8.5 percent. That's a 1 in 20 at one end (where we currently sit) and roughly 1 in 12 at the other. So currently I'd put our odds at Bedard at about a 1 in 15. Not great, not terrible. For reference, when the Rangers won the draft lottery to get Lafreniere, their odds were 1 in 40, so you never know.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I admittedly haven't caught nearly enough games this season (although maybe this was the year to miss out). But what is everyone's assessment of Neighbors' play this season? Does it seem like he's moving in a positive direction? What have his strengths and weaknesses looked like?

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I admittedly haven't caught nearly enough games this season (although maybe this was the year to miss out). But what is everyone's assessment of Neighbors' play this season? Does it seem like he's taken another step? What have his strengths and weaknesses looked like?

Earlier in the year he was a step or two behind, since he went down and called back up he's been much better and much more confident.

 

[Reality Czech]

I admittedly haven't caught nearly enough games this season (although maybe this was the year to miss out). But what is everyone's assessment of Neighbors' play this season? Does it seem like he's moving in a positive direction? What have his strengths and weaknesses looked like?

I would say that he has shown me a lot in terms of effort and toughness, and while he doesn't have many points he also shows potential for more offense. He dropped the gloves a few weeks back standing up for a teammate, which was nice to see, and he seems to work hard on every shift. It's probably too early to project where he'll end up but I feel like he'll be a solid, two-way middle six forward at least and a good character guy.