2022-2023 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread

[Davimir Tarablad]

I don’t think any of them return 1st or 2nd.

1st rounder would definitely be a reach, but if they're all producing at the same rate as last year, I do think at least one could fetch a 2nd.

 

[The Note]

He continued it in the worlds or what ever it was. I'm sure you're right but it wasn't a one and done at least. A lot of scoring comes from confidence and he's at an all time high.

Agreed that Blais won't shoot 23% over a full season. However, he has a really accurate shot and is pretty selective about when he shoots. I don't think that 15% is an unreasonable full-season number if he doesn't increase his shooting volume and that would probably get him to the 15 goal mark if he stays healthy.

A 15 goal and 200+ hit guy definitely has decent value at the TDL. Not as much as a a top 6 goal scorer, but I don't think a mid-late 2nd rounder would be out of the question. I'd prefer to see him sign a team-friendly 2 year extension, but I certainly couldn't blame a guy with his career earnings trying to maximize every dollar on his next contract. His style isn't conducive to a long career.

I don't disagree that Blais can be a useful depth piece that chips in offense, or that he isn't capable of going on heaters throughout the course of season on a regular basis. I think 15% shooting is a reasonable aim for Blais over the course of the season. My initial point was mostly that I don't think he's going to continue scoring like he did after the trade over the course of a season. Perhaps I was too literal to begin with, so that's on me. I'd rather Blais stick around as cheap depth for the re-tool/transition/whatever they want to call these next couple years, for the record. I still do think that Vrana would return the best rental package assuming best case scenarios for all of Vrana/Blais/Kap.

 

[Brian39]

Would you rather have Barby or Tarasenko in the playoffs? Blais vs. Vrana kind of falls in the same category. But it may depend on team needs.

Which versions of those players are we talking about? Because Blais isn't on the same planet as current-day Barby and Tarasenko is absolutely more valuable than the version of Barby that Blais is comparable to.

Barby has a demonstrated ability to stay in the lineup while Blais has a long injury history. Barby has a 26 goal and 60 point season on his resume and followed it up with a 16 goal and 45 point season. Blais has career highs of 9 goals and 25 points. Barby just won a Cup playing on the 1st line and put up 18 points in 22 games. Prior to that, Barby had earned his reputation as a Swiss Army knife who could effectively play any role assigned by actually having success in a huge variety of roles. Blais hasn't come close to doing that. He has proven that he can succeed (when healthy) as a bottom 6 banger and he has demonstrated a small sample of being able to produce like a 3rd liner in that role. However, he has also struggled to stay healthy, was genuinely bad in a 2 year sample outside of Berube's system, and hasn't ever demonstrated top 6 production.

Barby's role on the 4th line was important to our 2019 Cup and that player is the one Blais is comparable to. It certainly wasn't nearly as important as the role Tarasenko played to that team. Blais needs to take a hell of a step next season for Blais/Vrana to be a meaningful comparison to Barby/Tarasenko.

I think Vrana is a hell of a lot closer to the Tarasenko we traded. He has scored at a higher goal pace than Tarasenko's 2022/23 season in each of his last 5 seasons. Comparing their last 4 seasons, Vrana has 68 goals and 123 points in 170 games while Tarasenko has 59 goals and 156 points in 178 games. Tarasenko got 2 minutes more per night in ice time over that stretch with most of the difference being PP minutes. Vrana's shot is noticeably better than Tarasenko's post-surgeries shot and I'm not sold that the playmaking ability is significantly different. Both get heavy O zone usage.

 

[Frenzy31]

Which versions of those players are we talking about? Because Blais isn't on the same planet as current-day Barby and Tarasenko is absolutely more valuable than the version of Barby that Blais is comparable to.

Barby has a demonstrated ability to stay in the lineup while Blais has a long injury history. Barby has a 26 goal and 60 point season on his resume and followed it up with a 16 goal and 45 point season. Blais has career highs of 9 goals and 25 points. Barby just won a Cup playing on the 1st line and put up 18 points in 22 games. Prior to that, Barby had earned his reputation as a Swiss Army knife who could effectively play any role assigned by actually having success in a huge variety of roles. Blais hasn't come close to doing that. He has proven that he can succeed (when healthy) as a bottom 6 banger and he has demonstrated a small sample of being able to produce like a 3rd liner in that role. However, he has also struggled to stay healthy, was genuinely bad in a 2 year sample outside of Berube's system, and hasn't ever demonstrated top 6 production.

Barby's role on the 4th line was important to our 2019 Cup and that player is the one Blais is comparable to. It certainly wasn't nearly as important as the role Tarasenko played to that team. Blais needs to take a hell of a step next season for Blais/Vrana to be a meaningful comparison to Barby/Tarasenko.

I think Vrana is a hell of a lot closer to the Tarasenko we traded. He has scored at a higher goal pace than Tarasenko's 2022/23 season in each of his last 5 seasons. Comparing their last 4 seasons, Vrana has 68 goals and 123 points in 170 games while Tarasenko has 59 goals and 156 points in 178 games. Tarasenko got 2 minutes more per night in ice time over that stretch with most of the difference being PP minutes. Vrana's shot is noticeably better than Tarasenko's post-surgeries shot and I'm not sold that the playmaking ability is significantly different. Both get heavy O zone usage.

Barbashev at 25 has very similar production to Blais. He really didn't break out offensively until 2 years ago, when our team was putting up crazy number. He was widely considered a 4th liner with 3rd line upside. Everyone expected him to take a step back last year, but he was very productive when given the opportunity. Which is where I am with Blais. If he can stay. I don't know that he will ever up to a 60 point season, but he is a 40-45 point player if he stays healthy (which can be a big if with him).

That would be very valuable to a playoff team. Gritt and garbage finishing is huge in the playoffs.

If healthy and we are out, I do think a 1st would be his return.

 

[Brian39]

Doubtful. 2 teams have already bailed on him. His reputation is crap. Set aside substance question and ask whether anyone would give 1st for Mike Hoffman?

Mike Hoffman (at $5.1M AAV with 2 years left on his deal) and a 7th returned a 2nd, 4th, and 5th in 2018.

That was following a season where he scored 22 goals, 56 points, was a -20 and saw 37% of his production come on the PP. It was the summer that his reputation/value took a big hit because Erik Karlsson and his wife got a restraining order against his girlfriend due to harassment over a losing a pregnancy. Fair or not, Hoffman's reputation took a massive hit for standing by his girlfriend through the whole thing.

Yes, I fully believe that a Vrana scoring at a 25+ goal pace (and a year+ removed from completing the player assistance program) would return more than that as a rental at an AAV of $2.3M or less.

Evander Kane has returned a 1st round pick twice in his career. His reputation was significantly worse than Vrana's both times. One of them was part of a huge blockbuster when he had several years left at $5.25M AAV. The other was in a deal during the last year of a deal and only became a 1st if San Jose re-signed him. They gave him $7M x 7 years with his reputation as a locker room cancer. His reputation then got even worse and this contract was terminated. The Oilers signed him to a cheap prove it deal and then extended him 6 months later at $5.125M x 4 years.

Anthony Deangelo's RFA signing rights (with arbitration rights) went for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th last summer when Carolina became the 4th NHL team to bail on him (one of which paid him for a year to sit at home rather than assigning him to their AHL affiliate before buying him out).

I think you are overestimating how much "reputation" matters to NHL teams when the issues are a year+ in the rearview mirror and a guy is scoring like a top 6 or top line talent. I also think you are underestimating how teams value the on-ice contribution of adding a one-dimensional 25+ goal scorer for almost nothing against your cap.

 

[Brian39]

Barbashev at 25 has very similar production to Blais. He really didn't break out offensively until 2 years ago, when our team was putting up crazy number. He was widely considered a 4th liner with 3rd line upside. Everyone expected him to take a step back last year, but he was very productive when given the opportunity. Which is where I am with Blais. If he can stay. I don't know that he will ever up to a 60 point season, but he is a 40-45 point player if he stays healthy (which can be a big if with him).

That would be very valuable to a playoff team. Gritt and garbage finishing is huge in the playoffs.

If healthy and we are out, I do think a 1st would be his return.

Even if Blais takes the step to 40-45 point guy, I don't think it is enough to return a 1st.

Barby returned late 1st round value this year. The prospect we got from Vegas was drafted #30 overall, wasn't considered the best prospect in their pipeline, and I haven't seen him cracking any top 50 drafted prospect rankings. I think Dean is fairly valued as a a late 1st.

That was with Barby having a 60 point season on his resume and the ability to slide into a center role in a pinch. Blais wouldn't have either of those things on his resume, he has a longer injury history, and he has the red flag of disappearing the first time he left Berube's system. Blais is only 6 months younger than Barby and they were taken in the same draft. I don't see him returning equivalent value to Barby if his breakout next year has him on pace for a 40-45 point season.

I could see him returning a 2nd round pick and maybe even a 2nd plus a mid-round pick from a team confident that their 2nd round pick will be in the mid/late 50s. I just don't see him reaching Barby's value unless he greatly exceeds my expectations for production.

 

[stl76]

Doubtful. 2 teams have already bailed on him. His reputation is crap. Set aside substance question and ask whether anyone would give 1st for Mike Hoffman?

I think Vrana is a much more dynamic player than Hoffman, plus there is a big difference in age and most importantly contract. As long as Vrana keeps his nose clean (pun intended) and performs like we know he can, I have little doubt he could return a 1st + if the Blues decide to deal him at the TDL. I haven’t dug into recent comps, but that’s my gut feeling.

EDIT: So kinda like what Brian said but with fewer and smaller words haha

 

[TheDizee]

Sundqvist was on 101 ESPN this morning and said he would like to come back here. He said “I hope we can get something worked out.”

sign him to 4 yr deal for team friendly price.

 

[Brian39]

While I’d prefer to extend him I think he can get a Tampa late first special if he continues his current pace.

The issue with this is that the Tampa Special is acquiring non-rentals. Hagel's 3 year deal gave them 3 playoff runs at $1.5M AAV before he becomes RFA. Jeannot was on an expiring contract, but he is still an RFA. He has arbitration rights, but he can't just walk for nothing.

Blais will be a UFA next summer, so his value would be a rental and not a multi-year guy if you can't extend him.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Mike Hoffman (at $5.1M AAV with 2 years left on his deal) and a 7th returned a 2nd, 4th, and 5th in 2018.

That was following a season where he scored 22 goals, 56 points, was a -20 and saw 37% of his production come on the PP. It was the summer that his reputation/value took a big hit because Erik Karlsson and his wife got a restraining order against his girlfriend due to harassment over a losing a pregnancy. Fair or not, Hoffman's reputation took a massive hit for standing by his girlfriend through the whole thing.

Yes, I fully believe that a Vrana scoring at a 25+ goal pace (and a year+ removed from completing the player assistance program) would return more than that as a rental at an AAV of $2.3M or less.

Evander Kane has returned a 1st round pick twice in his career. His reputation was significantly worse than Vrana's both times. One of them was part of a huge blockbuster when he had several years left at $5.25M AAV. The other was in a deal during the last year of a deal and only became a 1st if San Jose re-signed him. They gave him $7M x 7 years with his reputation as a locker room cancer. His reputation then got even worse and this contract was terminated. The Oilers signed him to a cheap prove it deal and then extended him 6 months later at $5.125M x 4 years.

Anthony Deangelo's RFA signing rights (with arbitration rights) went for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th last summer when Carolina became the 4th NHL team to bail on him (one of which paid him for a year to sit at home rather than assigning him to their AHL affiliate before buying him out).

I think you are overestimating how much "reputation" matters to NHL teams when the issues are a year+ in the rearview mirror and a guy is scoring like a top 6 or top line talent. I also think you are underestimating how teams value the on-ice contribution of adding a one-dimensional 25+ goal scorer for almost nothing against your cap.

you may be right. but kane- baggage aside- is a much better player. deangelo that was insanely stupid trade by insanely stupid gm who compounded it by dealing more picks to unload ghost to be able to do it. and hoffman after that dumb trade has had hard time finding anyone who wanted him. nondghdldxx, i hope vrana has 20+ at tdl and we get to see whether we can find sucker to pay 1st.

 

[Xerloris]

I want both Sunny and Blais signed to league minimum deals x6. I dont care if they suck during it. I just want people on the team that realllllly want to be here. Should have signed Perron to 4x8 as well. I know that would take him till like 44 but so f***ing what?

 

[Mike Liut]

I’d like to re-sign Vrana, Kap and Blais to team friendly long term deals. All 3 were very good and a nice fit to this team.

 

[Drubilly]

The issue with this is that the Tampa Special is acquiring non-rentals. Hagel's 3 year deal gave them 3 playoff runs at $1.5M AAV before he becomes RFA. Jeannot was on an expiring contract, but he is still an RFA. He has arbitration rights, but he can't just walk for nothing.

Blais will be a UFA next summer, so his value would be a rental and not a multi-year guy if you can't extend him.

Ahhh you're right, I didn't think about their contract status.

 

[TheDizee]

I’d like to re-sign Vrana, Kap and Blais to team friendly long term deals. All 3 were very good and a nice fit to this team.

Blais yes, other 2 I need to see more from still.

 

[Xerloris]

BEST NEWS SINCE WE FIRED OUR ASSISTANT COACHES

 

[Mike Liut]

Blais yes, other 2 I need to see more from still.

true, I was assuming they’d be similar to what we saw. I probably shouldnt assume though. Maybe hopeful is a better word.

 

[PJJJP]

So this is certainly an interesting take

 

[BlueDream]

So this is certainly an interesting take

Just brutal.

But some people get too obsessed with advanced stats and don’t actually watch hockey. That account just made it very obvious.

The problem with stuff like this is they look at usage and put all their stock into that. A player like Nick Seeler is only getting pure defensive minutes because he has no offensive talent. He’s not a borderline top 5 defensive d-man in the NHL. There are far better d-men that will get more favorable zone starts because they can actually contribute offensively. And that’s just the beginning of it, there’s many more factors as well.

 

[542365]

Walman had an incredible season alongside Seider. Seider was not playing well at all paired with Chiarot and immediately after being paired with Walman they both played really well. Blues gave up too early on Jake.

 

[PJJJP]

Walman had an incredible season alongside Seider. Seider was not playing well at all paired with Chiarot and immediately after being paired with Walman they both played really well. Blues gave up too early on Jake.

Who plays well with Chiarot? He drags down everyone he plays with

 

[Xerloris]

Walman had an incredible season alongside Seider. Seider was not playing well at all paired with Chiarot and immediately after being paired with Walman they both played really well. Blues gave up too early on Jake.

Last I checked we didn't have a Seider for Walman to play with so he would have continued sucking if we had kept him.

 

[Reality Czech]

So this is certainly an interesting take

Just goes to show how worthless advanced stats are. I'm sure they have some value in specific situations but people rely on them way too much.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Just goes to show how worthless advanced stats are. I'm sure they have some value in specific situations but people rely on them way too much.

Just because some people misunderstand and misuse them doesn’t make them worthless.

 

[Frenzy31]

Just because some people misunderstand and misuse them doesn’t make them worthless.

Do you think Walman is the best defensive dman in the NHL?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Do you think Walman is the best defensive dman in the NHL?

Obviously not.