2021 Blues Regular Season multi-purpose thread

[Stealth JD]

They should award a virtual Cup based on advanced stats, and the real one to the team that wins games.

Only way that sissy Avs team will ever win anything.

 

[joe galiba]

But that doesn't even make any sense because when the Blues were still playing Allen behind Yeo, they were legitimately terrible. Only after they canned Yeo and demoted Allen in favor of Binnington did you see a relatively sudden shift in momentum, which these models couldn't have accounted for. These "advanced stats" are terrible models of reality and will often "predict" things accurately based on chance alone. Blind squirrels do find nuts.

And leave the broken shells all over my patio for me to step on in my bare feet

 

[BlueOil]

Only way that sissy Avs team will ever win anything.

they'd still raise a banner

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

The same site that predicted the Blues late season resurgence in 18-19? Statistical predictions will become more accurate as the season goes on and they have more data.

If I recall correctly, Money Puck weighs the last ten games heavily. Remember that they’re also going off of preseason analysis and predictions for a lot of their work. If those two teams keep up their current trends, Blues are top 5 three weeks from now and Toronto is in the teens or 20s.

 

[rumrokh]

And leave the broken shells all over my patio for me to step on in my bare feet

I love walking in grass with bare feet. Half-buried broken walnut and apricot pit caltrops are brutal.

 

[Brian39]

But that doesn't even make any sense because when the Blues were still playing Allen behind Yeo, they were legitimately terrible. Only after they canned Yeo and demoted Allen in favor of Binnington did you see a relatively sudden shift in momentum, which these models couldn't have accounted for. These "advanced stats" are terrible models of reality and will often "predict" things accurately based on chance alone. Blind squirrels do find nuts.

The Blues got .894 goaltending from the start of the season until Binner's first start.

They received .927 goaltending from Binner's start forward.

Shots allowed were nearly equal over these stretches (1166 vs 1168), but the difference in SV% meant that the team allowed 39 more goals in the first sample than they did in the 2nd.

That is literally the point being made. The Blues' underlying numbers were solid in the first stretch, but they were getting poor results due (mainly) to poor goaltending. The underlying numbers remained strong and suddenly the team got great results because they paired strong play with great goaltending. The entire analytic community was saying that the Blues weren't playing as poorly as their record indicated and would be a top 10 team with average or above average goaltending.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

 

[izzy]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

Honestly, he hasn’t looked out of place at all, but it’s probably best to send him down, especially with Sunny returning. Playing low minutes is going to stunt his development

Good opportunity to have a run through with the WJC after nhl experience as well

 

[Xerloris]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

I think he has a lot of composure and he's not a liability. After what happened to this team last year with injuries I think we absolutely should keep him here.

 

[LGB]

The Blues got .894 goaltending from the start of the season until Binner's first start.

They received .927 goaltending from Binner's start forward.

Shots allowed were nearly equal over these stretches (1166 vs 1168), but the difference in SV% meant that the team allowed 39 more goals in the first sample than they did in the 2nd.

That is literally the point being made. The Blues' underlying numbers were solid in the first stretch, but they were getting poor results due (mainly) to poor goaltending. The underlying numbers remained strong and suddenly the team got great results because they paired strong play with great goaltending. The entire analytic community was saying that the Blues weren't playing as poorly as their record indicated and would be a top 10 team with average or above average goaltending.

We did improve, but goaltending was a big factor as well.

 

[Celtic Note]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

He has played well enough, but his play has trended down lately.

I personally don’t think the NHL is the best place for him to develop his offensive game and that is the area that needs the most work. Juniors isn’t optimal, but there is more leeway there to get creativity flowing.

 

[Brian39]

We did improve, but goaltending was a big factor as well.
View attachment 474916

What site is that from? I'm generally very disappointed when I try to find advanced metrics that are game to game and not just a summed total from a date range.

 

[LGB]

What site is that from? I'm generally very disappointed when I try to find advanced metrics that are game to game and not just a summed total from a date range.

That one was from a tweet, but they also have it on the Moneypuck.com team pages.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

But that doesn't even make any sense because when the Blues were still playing Allen behind Yeo, they were legitimately terrible. Only after they canned Yeo and demoted Allen in favor of Binnington did you see a relatively sudden shift in momentum, which these models couldn't have accounted for. These "advanced stats" are terrible models of reality and will often "predict" things accurately based on chance alone. Blind squirrels do find nuts.

How are you backing this statement up?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

I'm starting to expect him to be sent down. Maybe he can come back up at the end of the season. I just don't see the minutes there for him in the NHL. Its a situation where the AHL would be his best option, if that were possible.

Its interesting that the team haven't tried at all to stretch out his 9 games. Maybe that has to do with the imminent return of Sundqvist.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

I'm starting to expect him to be sent down. Maybe he can come back up at the end of the season. I just don't see the minutes there for him in the NHL. Its a situation where the AHL would be his best option, if that were possible.

Its interesting that the team haven't tried at all to stretch out his 9 games. Maybe that has to do with the imminent return of Sundqvist.

I think between the win streak and players being shuffled for various reason has contributed to him being in the lineup for every game. I do think he'd benefit from a few extra practices before he hits in 9 games.

 

[Renard]

Krug got a seven year deal from the Blues in 2020. Will he block Perunovich for the next five years?

Perunovich has to be very attractive to teams that want a talented power play point man. Maybe one of those teams has a talented left handed defenseman they would be willing to part with.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

Because of COVID, injuries, and the possibility of a Tarasenko trade, Neighbours has to stay. I think he's shown more than enough to be a solid 4th line guy that as he develops this season will be a contributor on the PK and have some time in the top 9. Let him develop like Schwartz did in 12/13, where his production literally doesn't matter, it's about working all the other parts of his game.

 

[PocketNines]

Krug got a seven year deal from the Blues in 2020. Will he block Perunovich for the next five years?

Perunovich has to be very attractive to teams that want a talented power play point man. Maybe one of those teams has a talented left handed defenseman they would be willing to part with.

They are two players that on a contending roster should get 4th or 5th most ice time because that's how their one-dimensionality caps them. You need a minimum of three to have a chance and on a strong defense four genuinely strong defending defenders to get more ice time than Krug/Shattenkirk/Dunn/Perunovich types or I can tell you where your problem is. You bring those types out to run the PP and 5v5 you shelter them. You need that skillset on a hockey roster and I'm not diminishing its value, you just can't pay luxury pricing for it, especially with puck moving smaller defenders much easier to find now. Very much like both Shattenkirk and Dunn were and are, Krug is physically overmatched defensively but only Krug is paid like a top-pairing player. It's by far the worst contract on the team.

Having Perunovich makes it tantalizing to think of replacing a significant percentage of the PP upside while gaining a little over 5.5M in cap. It would require Armstrong next summer to move a huge contract two years after signing it. Since I don't think that's going to happen, the more likely outcome is when injuries hit, Perunovich comes up and is showcased as one of the prospects the Blues have NHL ready and able to send back in a significant trade.

Could they both play on the same roster at the same time? We'll probably see a few games like that later this year. I am highly dubious they'd run out two PP specialists they need to shelter 5v5 as a strategic long term plan.

 

[Celtic Note]

They are two players that on a contending roster should get 4th or 5th most ice time because that's how their one-dimensionality caps them. You need a minimum of three to have a chance and on a strong defense four genuinely strong defending defenders to get more ice time than Krug/Shattenkirk/Dunn/Perunovich types or I can tell you where your problem is. You bring those types out to run the PP and 5v5 you shelter them. You need that skillset on a hockey roster and I'm not diminishing its value, you just can't pay luxury pricing for it, especially with puck moving smaller defenders much easier to find now. Very much like both Shattenkirk and Dunn were and are, Krug is physically overmatched defensively but only Krug is paid like a top-pairing player. It's by far the worst contract on the team.

Having Perunovich makes it tantalizing to think of replacing a significant percentage of the PP upside while gaining a little over 5.5M in cap. It would require Armstrong next summer to move a huge contract two years after signing it. Since I don't think that's going to happen, the more likely outcome is when injuries hit, Perunovich comes up and is showcased as one of the prospects the Blues have NHL ready and able to send back in a significant trade.

Could they both play on the same roster at the same time? We'll probably see a few games like that later this year. I am highly dubious they'd run out two PP specialists they need to shelter 5v5 as a strategic long term plan.

I don’t think you can have both and be successful in a Cup run. There is just too much defensive liability there and you can’t hide them easily.

I would be trying to move Krug and retool the left side.

 

[PocketNines]

Particularly with how one-dimensional Walman also is

 

[execwrite1]

I’m curious to see where people stand on Neighbours to this point since after tonight he’ll be 2/3 of the way through his 9 games.

Personally I think he’s played well enough to get with a full time spot. He’s shown a lot of maturity and hasn’t been a liability defensively. But I also wouldn’t be super upset if we sent him back to junior either. We’re deep enough that we could do that.

Neighbours has been a good story and fun to watch. He's 19 years old - he belongs in the juniors this year.

 

[execwrite1]

Good on the Blues fans - a sell out and two weeknight games just 1,500 seats short. Excellent support for our boys.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I wouldn't be surprised if Neighbors is sent down or if he is kept in the NHL. With the Tarasenko trade request still reportedly in effect keeping him up might be more of a given. Tho, I think MacMac would be a better player to bring up and send Neighbors back to Juniors.

 

[Reality Czech]

Was just listening to the latest 31 Thoughts Podcast and there was a Tarasenko-related email. Regarding the Blues captaincy, he said he had heard from someone that Tarasenko wasn't even really interested in being the captain when it was given to ROR. He didn't say it as if it was 100% fact, but Marek isn't the kind of guy to just throw things out there without proof. Just thought I'd share that here since some fans have wondered if he was bitter about being passed over for the captaincy, but maybe that isn't the case at all.