2021 Blues Regular Season multi-purpose thread

[Stupendous Yappi]

Perron on Covid list

This is his 3rd time, right?

 

[AjaxManifesto]

This is his 3rd time, right?

Alpha, Delta, Omicron

 

[tfriede2]

Perron will be 34 in May. He's won a Cup and recently had another concussion after having a significant one early in his career. It is quite possible that no deal has come forward because he is contemplating retirement after the season to preserve his quality of life down the road.

He’s mentioned fairly recently that he wants to keep playing for several more years. Before the season I was thinking a 3-4 year extension, but now I’d max out at 2.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Alpha, Delta, Omicron

Just three more and he gets the Covid Gauntlet and once he snaps his fingers half of all covid on earth is gone.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Perron on Covid list

This is so f***ing stupid.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

This is so f***ing stupid.

Should probably go and have Kyrou and Thomas go cuddle with him so they can get it real quick and get it over with.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Everyone plays with an N95 mask from now on!

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Should probably go and have Kyrou and Thomas go cuddle with him so they can get it real quick and get it over with.

Right! COVID p***yes need to get a life.

 

[Blueline2757]

Everyone plays with an N95 mask from now on!

It's already happening here in Canada. I quit playing beer league because we have to be masked up while on the ice. God forbid if you sneeze on the ice.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Vaccinated hospital patients outpace the unvaccinated, but it doesn't mean the shots don't work: experts

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Vaccinated hospital patients outpace the unvaccinated, but it doesn't mean the shots don't work: experts

Everyone in my household who has the vaccine got covid over the past week. The only person who didn't get it is the one that's unvaccinated (due to other underlying health problems.)

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Everyone in my household who has the vaccine got covid over the past week. The only person who didn't get it is the one that's unvaccinated (due to other underlying health problems.)

I've had alpha and omicron. Might of had delta over the summer too. Unvaxxed. Conditions ranged from a cold-like to a flu-like. Life goes on.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I've had alpha and omicron. Might of had delta over the summer too. Unvaxxed. Life goes on.

I'm vaccinated (ex military, I have so many vaccines whirling around my body I gave up caring) .

I had delta early last year, got vaccinated, now have Omnitron. I miss the delta due to losing my taste and eating random nasty combinations of foods to gross people out.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I'm vaccinated (ex military, I have so many vaccines whirling around my body I gave up caring) .

I had delta early last year, got vaccinated, now have Omnitron. I miss the delta due to losing my taste and eating random nasty combinations of foods to gross people out.

When I was in the military they injected me with lots of stuff too. Now I'm very careful what I put in my body.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I've had alpha and omicron. Might of had delta over the summer too. Unvaxxed. Conditions ranged from a cold-like to a flu-like. Life goes on.

I've got a new book coming out called 'The Dystocon Strain'.

 

[tfriede2]

Vaccinated hospital patients outpace the unvaccinated, but it doesn't mean the shots don't work: experts

Well, when over 90% of that province has had at least one shot, it follows that more patients will be those that are vaccinated. I think a more telling statistic would be percentages of those who have been boosted and hospitalized. Nothing is a given, though - my mother in law’s friend with no preexisting conditions and boosted died this week from Covid.

 

[execwrite1]

Perron on Covid list

I thought you didn't get tested for 3 months if you've had it.

Correction - guess he tested out back in May of last year.

 

[Renard]

He’s mentioned fairly recently that he wants to keep playing for several more years. Before the season I was thinking a 3-4 year extension, but now I’d max out at 2.

I hope the Blues get this right. Perron is a fan favorite and he has improved with age. But since his ;most recent injury, he has been ineffective..

Let's see how he looks for the rest of the year.

 

[Brian39]

Vaccinated hospital patients outpace the unvaccinated, but it doesn't mean the shots don't work: experts

Are you scratching your head because you didn't bother to read the article, you struggled with the middle school level math involved, or because you are simply ignoring the information you didn't like to focus on a headline? It's super basic stuff. 90% of the population in the area has been vaccinated. Despite experiencing symptoms at a much lower rate, there are more total vaccinated people experiencing symptoms since the population is 9 times larger.

Let's equate it to a mandatory game of Russian Roulette. 90 participants are handed a revolver with 1 round in the chamber (and 5 empty slots). At a 1 in 6 chance (16.6%), you would expect 15 of these people to die. 10 participants are handed a gun with 3 bullets in the chamber (and 3 empty slots). At a 3 in 6 chance (50%), you would expect 5 of these people to die. You have to play. Are you grabbing the gun with 1 bullet in the chamber that has killed 15 people or the gun with 3 bullets in the chamber that has only killed 5?

Here are the exact stats laid out in the article:

"As of Thursday, 217 unvaccinated Albertans were in hospital with COVID-19, compared to 282 patients with at least one shot. But almost 90 per cent of the province has one dose, which means the "rate per 100,000 people" is a more telling metric to measure admissions. By that standard, about 24 unvaccinated people per 100,000 are in an Alberta hospital. That rate drops to fewer than eight after just one shot."

And regarding ICU patients:

"Unvaccinated ICU patients with COVID-19 far outnumber those who are vaccinated. The former tallied 47 in Alberta Thursday. The latter, 18. The numbers are just as imbalanced using proper metrics: 5.2 unvaccinated people per 100,000 are in the ICU. That rate drops to 0.4 with two doses."

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

Alpha, Delta, Omicron

Worst fraternity ever.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Dom over at the Athletic made player cards for all of the NHL teams and players. And good lord the value we're getting on Buchnevich, Kyrou, and Thomas is amazing. All of which are greatly outpacing their projections.

Tho it does definitely show players like Schenn, Faulk (tho only 6.1Mil production/market value vs 6.5mil actual cap hit), and Parayko being paid too much for production. But has players like Krug (7.5 mil production/market value vs 6.5 actual cap) bring underpaid for their current production.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Worst fraternity ever.

Well……they sure rushed those vaccines.

It’s the Animal House of Big Pharma.

 

[Brian39]

Dom over at the Athletic made player cards for all of the NHL teams and players. And good lord the value we're getting on Buchnevich, Kyrou, and Thomas is amazing. All of which are greatly outpacing their projections.

Tho it does definitely show players like Schenn, Faulk (tho only 6.1Mil production/market value vs 6.5mil actual cap hit), and Parayko being paid too much for production. But has players like Krug (7.5 mil production/market value vs 6.5 actual cap) bring underpaid for their current production.

I like these a lot and it is nice that the Athletic is finally making this data easily available for every player in one location. Cobbling them together from his various "best value, worst value" articles was annoying and his annual "here is how my model ranks everyone" article didn't do nearly as good a job as these cards do.

With that said, my problem with Dom's model is that (like most stat models) really struggles to quantify the value/impact of defensive roles. This model suggests that Parayko's defensive play has been worse than any other D man on the team. Not just this year, but also for the last 3 years. It is a modeling issue when 3 years of data reaches the conclusion that Parayko is barely an NHL caliber defensive player (his expected defensive performance based on the past 3 years has him just above "fringe NHLer"). I agree that he hasn't been at his best, but he just hasn't been the worst defender on the roster. Swap the usage of Krug and Parayko and I'd bet all the money I have that Krug would have allowed more goals and chances and wound up with a worse defensive score than Parayko has. It is incredibly difficult to balance "the situations a player is used in" against "how he has performed in those situations." His model struggles to reconcile those things in regards to defense.

None of his top 10 defenders from the start of the season began less than 40% of their shifts in the offensive zone and almost all of them start at least 55% of their shifts in the offensive zone. Only 2 of the 10 were below 50%. 4 of the 5 best defenders in the NHL according to his model played less than 22 minutes a night. If your coach gives you big minutes as a pure shutdown guy, you just aren't going to be rated high in his model. I'm absolutely not trying to throw out Dom's model as useless and I think it is the best publicly available analytics data in the sport. I just don't think that his market value accurately captures what defensive D men are worth. In general, I find his D valuations really difficult to predict and compare.

All in all, my eye test shares his valuation and performance of most the roster though.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I like these a lot and it is nice that the Athletic is finally making this data easily available for every player in one location. Cobbling them together from his various "best value, worst value" articles was annoying and his annual "here is how my model ranks everyone" article didn't do nearly as good a job as these cards do.

With that said, my problem with Dom's model is that (like most stat models) really struggles to quantify the value/impact of defensive roles. This model suggests that Parayko's defensive play has been worse than any other D man on the team. Not just this year, but also for the last 3 years. It is a modeling issue when 3 years of data reaches the conclusion that Parayko is barely an NHL caliber defensive player (his expected defensive performance based on the past 3 years has him just above "fringe NHLer"). I agree that he hasn't been at his best, but he just hasn't been the worst defender on the roster. Swap the usage of Krug and Parayko and I'd bet all the money I have that Krug would have allowed more goals and chances and wound up with a worse defensive score than Parayko has. It is incredibly difficult to balance "the situations a player is used in" against "how he has performed in those situations." His model struggles to reconcile those things in regards to defense.

None of his top 10 defenders from the start of the season began less than 40% of their shifts in the offensive zone and almost all of them start at least 55% of their shifts in the offensive zone. Only 2 of the 10 were below 50%. 4 of the 5 best defenders in the NHL according to his model played less than 22 minutes a night. If your coach gives you big minutes as a pure shutdown guy, you just aren't going to be rated high in his model. I'm absolutely not trying to throw out Dom's model as useless and I think it is the best publicly available analytics data in the sport. I just don't think that his market value accurately captures what defensive D men are worth. In general, I find his D valuations really difficult to predict and compare.

All in all, my eye test shares his valuation and performance of most the roster though.

I’ve rarely wanted to deeply dive into advanced stats (or whatever) because I know myself.

I know that, in order to understand, I will need to study his/their methods and compare them to the models of peers.

It’s a fun exercise to parse out the details of a particular model, but so time consuming that it’s aversive for me.

That being said, I mostly trust these models because they mostly meet the eye test. And that’s good enough for me.

Of course, what interests me the most is your question on “performance”. Is the model reliably and validly measuring performance in easily documented situations? If so, how? rhetorical

Thank you for being so diligent.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The key thing with any model of advanced stat breakdown is to compare players of similar usage, quality of linemates, and quality of competition. A lot of the advanced stat truthers will ignore all that on HF. I still remember all the discussions I'd have on here with Rangers posters that were big on advanced stats that would try and convince me that while both were in St. Louis, Shattenkirk was better than Pietrangelo. They simply couldn't understand how usage would impact corsi.