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2021-2022 S Blues Multi-Purpose Thread Part 3

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$13M…$15M…whatever is deemed FU money and hurts Colorado the most. They’d have to match, but if not…the Blues probably have enough depth in the organization to thrive with a 2-for-1 swap of payroll dollars, if that guy is arguably one of the leagues 5 best players.

MacKinnon ($15M) and Bolduc ($1M) vs. ROR and Tarasenko at a combined $15M.
Doable.
 
Stealth JD said:
$13M…$15M…whatever is deemed FU money and hurts Colorado the most. They’d have to match, but if not…the Blues probably have enough depth in the organization to thrive with a 2-for-1 swap of payroll dollars, if that guy is arguably one of the leagues 5 best players.

MacKinnon ($15M) and Bolduc ($1M) vs. ROR and Tarasenko at a combined $15M.
Doable.
Click to expand...
Would Bolduc be staying at $1M over the life of MacKinnon’s contract?
 
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PocketNines said:
I'd like to see a season team props thread. For example right now DraftKings has the Blues 8th most likely to come out of the West behind Colorado, Edmonton, Vegas, Minnesota, Calgary, LA and Nashville. They have the point over under at 95.5 and the -180/+150 on make/miss playoffs.

The Rangers at +380 to win the division behind Carolina and Pittsburgh seems like an opportunity. I wonder what the best price is on that.
Click to expand...

DraftKings is stupid.
 
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It's weird that all the insiders/writers keep repeating how Tarasenko is still a trade option in their pieces. It's basically a 99.9% certainty that he'll play the season with us, and simply walk in the summer. And his money is used for Thomas/Kyrou.

Maybe they think it's like Shattenkirk, but the difference with Shatty, he was already replaced on the roster with Parayko. And since we'd need a top 6 scorer in return, and we need money for Kyrou's extension, we'd more or less need a rental for rental type deal, which doesn't seem very appealing, since Tarasenko is likely fine playing out his contract.
 
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bleedblue1223 said:
It's weird that all the insiders/writers keep repeating how Tarasenko is still a trade option in their pieces. It's basically a 99.9% certainty that he'll play the season with us, and simply walk in the summer. And his money is used for Thomas/Kyrou.

Maybe they think it's like Shattenkirk, but the difference with Shatty, he was already replaced on the roster with Parayko. And since we'd need a top 6 scorer in return, and we need money for Kyrou's extension, we'd more or less need a rental for rental type deal, which doesn't seem very appealing, since Tarasenko is likely fine playing out his contract.
Click to expand...
Those two scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Tarasenko isn't re-signing, and is open to at least SOME trade scenarios. He's available. But the Blues are not moving him in a deal that makes the team worse. If there is a trade out there where Armstrong can make the team better (get a younger player with upside, save salary that he can allocate to an upgrade elsewhere and still fill Vlad's spot, etc) I am sure he'd do it. But as you say, its implausible that a deal like that is going to materialize. Tarasenko's final year has value to the Blues, and that's probably what they'll get.
 
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Stupendous Yappi said:
Those two scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Tarasenko isn't re-signing, and is open to at least SOME trade scenarios. He's available. But the Blues are not moving him in a deal that makes the team worse. If there is a trade out there where Armstrong can make the team better (get a younger player with upside, save salary that he can allocate to an upgrade elsewhere and still fill Vlad's spot, etc) I am sure he'd do it. But as you say, its implausible that a deal like that is going to materialize. Tarasenko's final year has value to the Blues, and that's probably what they'll get.
Click to expand...
At the start of free agency, I'd agree, but to me, there's no one else in free agency that we could sign and also fit into long-term cap structure and upgrade the team. There could be the argument of finding that in a trade, but Tarasenko with 1 year won't bring that type of value.

A somewhat plausible situation would be if Carolina re-ignites interest now that Patches is hurt long-term, and maybe Necas is a piece in a package, but we'd certainly be downgrading in the short-term, and potentially have issues on extending ROR if there is mutual interest in an extension there. That's kind of the issue with a Tarasenko trade. Our long-term cap structure is sort of dependent on Tarasenko's full cap being used up on extensions of players we already have, so acquiring long-term talent for him just complicates everything.
 
The ROR situation is the one I'm most concerned about right now. We could get an extension announcement at any time, but it doesn't feel like that's imminent. The way the Perron thing was handled that makes me wonder if ROR is moving on. Losing ROR would be a terrible thing.
 
bleedblue1223 said:
It's weird that all the insiders/writers keep repeating how Tarasenko is still a trade option in their pieces. It's basically a 99.9% certainty that he'll play the season with us, and simply walk in the summer. And his money is used for Thomas/Kyrou.

Maybe they think it's like Shattenkirk, but the difference with Shatty, he was already replaced on the roster with Parayko. And since we'd need a top 6 scorer in return, and we need money for Kyrou's extension, we'd more or less need a rental for rental type deal, which doesn't seem very appealing, since Tarasenko is likely fine playing out his contract.
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Props to these guys trying to comment on all 32 teams but clearly they can’t be that well versed on every team so they’re going to look silly with some of their takes.

And Acciari and Highmore are apparently going to be our bottom-6 RWs too…
 
PocketNines said:
The ROR situation is the one I'm most concerned about right now. We could get an extension announcement at any time, but it doesn't feel like that's imminent. The way the Perron thing was handled that makes me wonder if ROR is moving on. Losing ROR would be a terrible thing.
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Yeah, at a bare minimum, we'd need a plan to get a legitimate shutdown center on the roster. Rolling with Thomas and Schenn, would essentially be what we did when Petro walked and we went with Parayko and Faulk, but we'd feel the impact even more.

And not even just the shutdown capabilities of going against MacKinnon, O'Reilly consistently produces in the playoffs, 49 points in 51 playoff games for us. We'd need Thomas to step up big time if ROR leaves on top of finding that shutdown guy.
 
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Stealth JD said:
$13M…$15M…whatever is deemed FU money and hurts Colorado the most. They’d have to match, but if not…the Blues probably have enough depth in the organization to thrive with a 2-for-1 swap of payroll dollars, if that guy is arguably one of the leagues 5 best players.

MacKinnon ($15M) and Bolduc ($1M) vs. ROR and Tarasenko at a combined $15M.
Doable.
Click to expand...
As already mentioned, a good chunk of that $15M potential salary from re-signing ROR and Tarasenko has already been allocated to Thomas. At the moment, we currently have about $24M in space for 2023/24. MacKinnon at $15M would leave us with $9M in space and only 13 players on the roster. Our signed forwards would be MacKinnon, Thomas, Schenn, Buch, Saad, and Walker. You can safely add Neighbours and Bolduc to that group as their ELCs would be essential to fielding a team. That brings us to $7.35M with 15 players on the roster. We would need 4 more everyday forwards, a backup and then your healthy scratches.

ROR, Tarasenko, Barby, and Mikkola obviously all walk in UFA.

Fill the backup, #7 D slot, and forwards #11-13 with league minimum contracts. That leaves us with $3.475M to fill the two remaining top 9 forward slots (I'm assuming Bolduc/Neighbours both play in the top 9 and Walker is on the 4th line). Here's where we stand at the moment (ignore the lines b/c I'm just filling in the depth chart by cost). LM stands for a guy brought in at league minimum:

Schenn-MacKinnon-Buch
Saad-Thomas-Bolduc
Neighbours-???-???
Walker-LM-LM
LM

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Scandella-Bortz
LM

Binner
LM

Schenn might have to be the 3C given the price of bringing in a 3C, so that means both of Bolduc/Neighbours are in the the top 6 or you need to use the limited cap dollars on players you plan to play top 6 minutes.

Moving Scandella becomes a complete necessity. Swapping him for a slightly-more-proven Perunovich at $1M brings our cap space up to $5.75M to fill those last two top 9 spots. Not enough to even consider keeping Kyrou. So you also have to move either Leddy or Krug. Let's say we can extend Kyrou for $7.5M. Now we are looking at this roster:

Saad-MacKinnon-Kyrou ($7.5M)
Neighbours-Thomas-Buch
(cheap guy)-Schenn-Bolduc
Walker-LM-LM
LM

(cheap guy)-Parayko
(Krug or Leddy)-Faulk
Perunovich ($1M)-Bortz
LM

Binner
LM

If you moved Leddy, then the two "cheap guys" would need to come in at a combined $2.25M against the cap. If you moved Krug, then those two guys would need to come in at a combined $4.75M against the cap. Less if any of the 5 guys I penciled in at league minimum cost a penny more than that or you want to run a 23 man roster.

The only way that gets you into contender territory is if both of Neighbours/Bolduc are above average middle 6 guys by 2023/24, Perunovich explodes in 2023/24 (after a lukewarm 2022/23 season that keeps him cheap), and you are able to acquire a #4/5 caliber D and #9 caliber forward for a combined $2-4M. That is a hell of a lot of "ifs." And the development of Neighbours/Bolduc/Perunovich would arguably better support spreading that $15M between ROR and another stud. I think spending $8M on ROR and replacing one of Leddy/Krug with a defensively sound LD paid (and genuinely worth) $7M gets you closer to the Cup than plugging MacKinnon in there.
 
Brian39 said:
As already mentioned, a good chunk of that $15M potential salary from re-signing ROR and Tarasenko has already been allocated to Thomas. At the moment, we currently have about $24M in space for 2023/24. MacKinnon at $15M would leave us with $9M in space and only 13 players on the roster. Our signed forwards would be MacKinnon, Thomas, Schenn, Buch, Saad, and Walker. You can safely add Neighbours and Bolduc to that group as their ELCs would be essential to fielding a team. That brings us to $7.35M with 15 players on the roster. We would need 4 more everyday forwards, a backup and then your healthy scratches.

ROR, Tarasenko, Barby, and Mikkola obviously all walk in UFA.

Fill the backup, #7 D slot, and forwards #11-13 with league minimum contracts. That leaves us with $3.475M to fill the two remaining top 9 forward slots (I'm assuming Bolduc/Neighbours both play in the top 9 and Walker is on the 4th line). Here's where we stand at the moment (ignore the lines b/c I'm just filling in the depth chart by cost). LM stands for a guy brought in at league minimum:

Schenn-MacKinnon-Buch
Saad-Thomas-Bolduc
Neighbours-???-???
Walker-LM-LM
LM

Krug-Faulk
Leddy-Parayko
Scandella-Bortz
LM

Binner
LM

Schenn might have to be the 3C given the price of bringing in a 3C, so that means both of Bolduc/Neighbours are in the the top 6 or you need to use the limited cap dollars on players you plan to play top 6 minutes.

Moving Scandella becomes a complete necessity. Swapping him for a slightly-more-proven Perunovich at $1M brings our cap space up to $5.75M to fill those last two top 9 spots. Not enough to even consider keeping Kyrou. So you also have to move either Leddy or Krug. Let's say we can extend Kyrou for $7.5M. Now we are looking at this roster:

Saad-MacKinnon-Kyrou ($7.5M)
Neighbours-Thomas-Buch
(cheap guy)-Schenn-Bolduc
Walker-LM-LM
LM

(cheap guy)-Parayko
(Krug or Leddy)-Faulk
Perunovich ($1M)-Bortz
LM

Binner
LM

If you moved Leddy, then the two "cheap guys" would need to come in at a combined $2.25M against the cap. If you moved Krug, then those two guys would need to come in at a combined $4.75M against the cap. Less if any of the 5 guys I penciled in at league minimum cost a penny more than that or you want to run a 23 man roster.

The only way that gets you into contender territory is if both of Neighbours/Bolduc are above average middle 6 guys by 2023/24, Perunovich explodes in 2023/24 (after a lukewarm 2022/23 season that keeps him cheap), and you are able to acquire a #4/5 caliber D and #9 caliber forward for a combined $2-4M. That is a hell of a lot of "ifs." And the development of Neighbours/Bolduc/Perunovich would arguably better support spreading that $15M between ROR and another stud. I think spending $8M on ROR and replacing one of Leddy/Krug with a defensively sound LD paid (and genuinely worth) $7M gets you closer to the Cup than plugging MacKinnon in there.
Click to expand...
Here's a more concise way of looking at things. Compare these lineups and amount of cap space to fill the question marks:

Schenn-MacKinnon ($15M)-Buch
Saad-Thomas-Bolduc
Neighbours-???-???
Walker-???-???
???-???

???-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
???-Bortz
???

Binner
???

That leaves you with $16.35M to fill those 10 question marks, which includes extending/replacing Kyrou and a top pair/4 caliber LD to partner with Parayko. Add $2.5M in space if you move Krug instead of Leddy.

Schenn-ROR ($8M)-Buch
Saad-Thomas-Bolduc
Neighbours-???-???
Walker-???-???
???-???

???-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
???-Bortz
???

Binner
???

That leaves you with $23.35M to fill those same 10 question marks. Add $2.5M if you move Krug instead of Leddy.

Option 1 closes the door on upgrading the D unless you are willing to substantially downgrade the middle 6. Option 2 gives you the ability to upgrade the D without gutting the forward depth.

The math on MacKinnon at $15M isn't 'Mac+Bolduc' instead of 'ROR+Tarasenko.' Bolduc is here at $1M in either scenario and we don't have the cap space to fit Mac at $15M without making substantial cuts to the roster. Signing Mac at $15M means we are choosing between keeping Kyrou and upgrading the LD (or even leaving the D intact). Opting to extend ROR at around $8M gives us the ability to keep Kyrou AND upgrade the LD (or keeping the LD intact and spending money elsewhere).

Mac is a hell of a player. But even in the dream scenario where he is obtainable at $15M, I don't know that it is the best way our team could spend $15M. If ROR can be extended for a small raise, then I think we are better off with him and another $&M or so in cap space than we'd be with Mac. FWIW, I think Colorado still would have won the Cup last year if we'd swapped MacKinnon and ROR.
 
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Blueston said:
I’m confused. Reading through this forum I thought our defense was awful?
Click to expand...

Me too. I keep hearing that Leddy is a decent fix for our top 4. Yet this guy who wrote this article and clearly knows our team so well has him as a depth D. Maybe people can be wrong? Maybe the people who think our D is good are wrong. Maybe the people who think our D is bad are wrong. But especially the people who think Leddy, barring injury, will get less ice time than Scandella and who think Highmore will be in our top 12. Those especially may be wrong.
 
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Stealth JD said:
100% agree. I was surprised to learn, after reading Travis Yost at TSN, that the Blues RW depth is now Tarasenko-Kyrou-Noel Acciari-Matthew Highmore. I'd have understood speculation around Toropchenko, Brown, Walker, Kostin, Bolduc, even McGing...but referencing a guy who's not even listed on the Blues on-line roster? That's bold.

www.tsn.ca

Travis Yost: Grading every NHL team's right wing depth | TSN

Travis Yost presents a multi-piece series grading every team’s lineup across the positional groups in tiered fashion, analyzing the depth charts across all positions and create talent tiers for all 32 franchises. We continue at right wing.
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca
Click to expand...
Regarding Highmore, we signed him this summer for $750k apparently, he's listed on our capfriendly under the Non-Roster forwards section St. Louis Blues Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
 
What about a JT Miller Trade for Tarasenko? Down grade a bit at scoring, but gives us a replacement for ROR next year.
 
Frenzy31 said:
What about a JT Miller Trade for Tarasenko? Down grade a bit at scoring, but gives us a replacement for ROR next year.
Click to expand...

Miller scored 99 points compared to Tarasenko's 82. Not really a scoring downgrade but I also don't think he's a replacement for ROR.
 
Frenzy31 said:
What about a JT Miller Trade for Tarasenko? Down grade a bit at scoring, but gives us a replacement for ROR next year.
Click to expand...
I think his next contract will be larger than ROR's next contract. It will likely age better since he is a couple years younger, but ROR will likely be the better value for the next 2-4 years. Miller just had a 99 point season with great underlying numbers on a pretty bad team whose next highest scorer trailed him by 31 points. He's going to get paid.

I don't think Tarasenko is a desirable asset for a struggling Vancouver team and he's certainly worth lest than Miller. We would have to add a ton.

I'd prefer extending a 32 year old ROR than signing a 30 year old Miller given the likely difference in those contracts.
 
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JT Miller had 99 points? Jeez.

I'm not sure if its a testament to Vancouver's mediocrity or to the ridiculous number of "career years" the NHL produced this season that I somehow missed that nugget.
 
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