2020 Roster and Fantasy GM Thread II

[Cogburn]

So for these 21m you have to sign Markstrom, Virtanen, Gaudette, Motte, McEwan Tanev and Stecher just to get to a 20 men roster. Just taking a guess here but thats already about 19m you need for those guys, add in 1.8m in deferred bonuses to Pettersson and Hughes and you have pretty much hit the ceiling without any call ups, you havent resigned Toffoli and the team is still a playoff bubble team at the very best.

So with what cap space do you plan to prey on other teams cap casualties?

I am insistent that we will see mid tier players (everyone mentioned except Markstrom for this year's UFA class) will see less then we're expecting, given the flat cap. Not everyone has to come back as well, and if we sign everyone you've mentioned, we'd also be over the number of roster players, so we would have more flexibility there too. I've also mentioned I expect the flat cap to tilt towards lower, possibly shorter term, cap hits. I am counting on Gear to help this. I really miss Gilman being part of this organization too.

Motte and MacEwen I'd expect to be under the 1,075,000 to be buriable, Virtanen has arbitration rights, but based on his role I can't see getting a tremendous raise. Gaudette doesn't have arbitration rights. Stecher and Tanev (of whom I don't expect both coming back) also aren't due for a 200% raises. Toffoli is due for a bit of a raise, and we'll see what kind with play ins and play offs coming.

Picking up a cap casualty would replace one of the free agents as well. Part of the return could contain an RFA or less expensive player from our roster as well, depending on who the target is.

My point was more that we're not completely screwed, and even if we don't dump Sutter and/or Baertschi on another team through trade, we can still clear more cap space without relying on finding someone to dump on.

 

[Peter10]

I am insistent that we will see mid tier players (everyone mentioned except Markstrom for this year's UFA class) will see less then we're expecting, given the flat cap. Not everyone has to come back as well, and if we sign everyone you've mentioned, we'd also be over the number of roster players, so we would have more flexibility there too. I've also mentioned I expect the flat cap to tilt towards lower, possibly shorter term, cap hits. I am counting on Gear to help this. I really miss Gilman being part of this organization too.

Motte and MacEwen I'd expect to be under the 1,075,000 to be buriable, Virtanen has arbitration rights, but based on his role I can't see getting a tremendous raise. Gaudette doesn't have arbitration rights. Stecher and Tanev (of whom I don't expect both coming back) also aren't due for a 200% raises. Toffoli is due for a bit of a raise, and we'll see what kind with play ins and play offs coming.

Picking up a cap casualty would replace one of the free agents as well. Part of the return could contain an RFA or less expensive player from our roster as well, depending on who the target is.

My point was more that we're not completely screwed, and even if we don't dump Sutter and/or Baertschi on another team through trade, we can still clear more cap space without relying on finding someone to dump on.

Its not like I have assumed high salaries for those. Markstrom 5.5m, Virtanen 3m, Gaudette 1.5m, Motte 1m, McEwan 1m, Stecher 2.5m, Tanev 4.5m - thats 19m already and again, this is just with the minimum roster of 20, so I dont get how we would be "over the number of roster players".

Dont get me wrong, I am interested to see how you get there as I cant think of a scenario in which the Canucks have ample cap space unless they let all 3 big name UFAs go.

 

[m9]

Once you add in the EP/Hughes bonuses and the Luongo/Spooner hits that's at least another 5 million to calculate in.

 

[Cogburn]

Its not like I have assumed high salaries for those. Markstrom 5.5m, Virtanen 3m, Gaudette 1.5m, Motte 1m, McEwan 1m, Stecher 2.5m, Tanev 4.5m - thats 19m already and again, this is just with the minimum roster of 20, so I dont get how we would be "over the number of roster players".

Dont get me wrong, I am interested to see how you get there as I cant think of a scenario in which the Canucks have ample cap space unless they let all 3 big name UFAs go.

I'm still thinking we get lower cap hit on a few of those guys. Stecher I feel will be traded or not qualified if we retain Tanev. Markstrom and Tanev (due almost entirely to the flat cap and expansion draft, in my diseased mind) could get a short (even single year) extension.

Your guess on the four forwards are close to what I have them pegged at as well. Although...who knows with Virtanen. I know he'd want more, but he might come in at less. I feel if Boeser bought in, Virtanen might still.

I'd also be remissed if I left out plans for Eriksson (not a buy out, as I mentioned), which if dumped in its entirety would more then pay for Toffoli. Hell, if we get creative, scoop up Ryan from Ottawa at half his cap hit, we could flip him to a team lacking forwards. Or between the savings and Virtanen's mark down, we'd be able to at least offer a small raise.

 

[Cogburn]

Once you add in the EP/Hughes bonuses and the Luongo/Spooner hits that's at least another 5 million to calculate in.

Lu/Spooner are already factored in.

 

[Kryten]

We desperately need to trade Sutter for a pick after his next seasons bonus is paid

 

[604]

Don't know if this was an exercise on how we could afford Pietrangelo or in how badly we are screwed by our bad contracts but this is how our roster could shakedown if we jettisoned a few bad contracts and signed Pietrangelo for $12M a season:

FORWARDS (13)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Pettersson, Elias	C	925,000	8,000,000
Miller, J.T.	C, LW, RW	5,250,000	5,250,000
Boeser, Brock	RW	5,875,000	5,875,000
Horvat, Bo	C	5,500,000	5,500,000
Pearson, Tanner	LW	3,750,000	GONE
Ferland, Michael	LW, RW	3,500,000	3,500,000
Podkolzin, Vasily	RW	NA	925,000
Gaudette, Adam	C	2,000,000	2,000,000
Leivo, Josh	RW, LW	1,600,000	1,600,000
Nils Hoglander	LW	MINORS	891,667
Virtanen, Jake	RW	2,000,000	2,000,000
Sutter, Brandon	RW, C	4,375,000	GONE
Motte, Tyler	RW, LW, C	1,100,000	1,100,000
MacEwen, Zack	C, RW [TBODY] [/TBODY]	1,000,000	1,000,000
Graovac, Tyler	C	700,000	700,000
TOTAL		37,575,000	38,341,667
DEFENSE (8)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Hughes, Quinn	LD [TBODY] [/TBODY]	916,667	8,000,000
Alex Pietrangelo	RD	12,000,000	12,000,000
Edler, Alexander	LD	6,000,000	GONE
Rathbone, Jack	LD	MINORS	891,666
Myers, Tyler	RD	6,000,000	6,000,000
Fantenberg, Oscar	LD	1,500,000	1,500,000
Tryamkin, Nikita	RD	2,000,000	2,000,000
Benn, Jordie	LD	2,000,000	GONE
Rafferty, Brogan	RD	700,000	700,000
Woo, Jet	RD	MINORS	891,666
TOTAL		31,116,667	31,983,332
GOALIES (2)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Markström, Jacob	G	5,500,000	5,500,000
Louis Domingue	G	1,200,000	1,200,000
TOTAL		6,700,000	6,700,000
BUYOUT HISTORY		2020-21	2021-22
Spooner, Ryan		$1,033,333
TOTAL		$1,033,333
RECAPTURE PENALTY		2020-21	2021-22
Luongo, Roberto		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
TOTAL		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
Total Cap Hit		79,458,206	80,058,205
Projected Cap		81,500,000	81,500,000
Remaining Space		2,041,794	1,441,795

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Essentially We have to let our $2M+ UFAs walk except Markstrom (Tanev+Tiffoli this year; Edler+Pearson+Sutter+Benn the next) and jettison Eriksson + Roussel + Beagle + Baertschi this off-season. I figure we likely have a compliance buyout or 2 and we can trade Demko, our 1st, 2nd, and our 3rd next year and we still come out ahead by signing Pietrangelo.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

Don't know if this was an exercise on how we could afford Pietrangelo or in how badly we are screwed by our bad contracts but this is how our roster could shakedown if we jettisoned a few bad contracts and signed Pietrangelo for $12M a season:

FORWARDS (13)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Pettersson, Elias	C	925,000	8,000,000
Miller, J.T.	C, LW, RW	5,250,000	5,250,000
Boeser, Brock	RW	5,875,000	5,875,000
Horvat, Bo	C	5,500,000	5,500,000
Pearson, Tanner	LW	3,750,000	GONE
Ferland, Michael	LW, RW	3,500,000	3,500,000
Podkolzin, Vasily	RW	NA	925,000
Gaudette, Adam	C	2,000,000	2,000,000
Leivo, Josh	RW, LW	1,600,000	1,600,000
Nils Hoglander	LW	MINORS	891,667
Virtanen, Jake	RW	2,000,000	2,000,000
Sutter, Brandon	RW, C	4,375,000	GONE
Motte, Tyler	RW, LW, C	1,100,000	1,100,000
MacEwen, Zack	C, RW [TBODY] [/TBODY]	1,000,000	1,000,000
Graovac, Tyler	C	700,000	700,000
TOTAL		37,575,000	38,341,667
DEFENSE (8)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Hughes, Quinn	LD [TBODY] [/TBODY]	916,667	8,000,000
Alex Pietrangelo	RD	12,000,000	12,000,000
Edler, Alexander	LD	6,000,000	GONE
Rathbone, Jack	LD	MINORS	891,666
Myers, Tyler	RD	6,000,000	6,000,000
Fantenberg, Oscar	LD	1,500,000	1,500,000
Tryamkin, Nikita	RD	2,000,000	2,000,000
Benn, Jordie	LD	2,000,000	GONE
Rafferty, Brogan	RD	700,000	700,000
Woo, Jet	RD	MINORS	891,666
TOTAL		31,116,667	31,983,332
GOALIES (2)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Markström, Jacob	G	5,500,000	5,500,000
Louis Domingue	G	1,200,000	1,200,000
TOTAL		6,700,000	6,700,000
BUYOUT HISTORY		2020-21	2021-22
Spooner, Ryan		$1,033,333
TOTAL		$1,033,333
RECAPTURE PENALTY		2020-21	2021-22
Luongo, Roberto		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
TOTAL		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
Total Cap Hit		79,458,206	80,058,205
Projected Cap		81,500,000	81,500,000
Remaining Space		2,041,794	1,441,795

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Essentially We have to let our $2M+ UFAs walk except Markstrom (Tanev+Tiffoli this year; Edler+Pearson+Sutter+Benn the next) and jettison Eriksson + Roussel + Beagle + Baertschi this off-season. I figure we likely have a compliance buyout or 2 and we can trade Demko, our 1st, 2nd, and our 3rd next year and we still come out ahead by signing Pietrangelo.

Any idea how we are going to rid ourselves of eriksson, roussell, beagle, baertschi ?? We’d be lucky to trade one of them, 4 is overly optimistic.

 

[604]

Any idea how we are going to rid ourselves of eriksson, roussell, beagle, baertschi ?? We’d be lucky to trade one of them, 4 is overly optimistic.

1) There is a chance for up to two compliance buyouts.

2) Give up assets.

Examples:
- Eriksson + Demko to DET for nothing(as per trade board)
- Roussel isn't on that bad a contract probably ship him with a 3rd...maybe a 2nd
- Beagle isn't on that bad a contract, probably ship him with a prospect such as Juolevi or a 3rd.
- Baertschi is interesting. He may be able to be on our 2nd line LW, in that case, keep him over Leivo...or ship him him a 4th (it's only one year)

Ideally you get out of this without moving a 1st either way, you gotta just take the medicine and move forward while Pettersson and Hughes are semi cost controlled.

 

[Peter10]

1) There is a chance for up to two compliance buyouts.

Says who?

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Don't know if this was an exercise on how we could afford Pietrangelo or in how badly we are screwed by our bad contracts but this is how our roster could shakedown if we jettisoned a few bad contracts and signed Pietrangelo for $12M a season:

FORWARDS (13)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Pettersson, Elias	C	925,000	8,000,000
Miller, J.T.	C, LW, RW	5,250,000	5,250,000
Boeser, Brock	RW	5,875,000	5,875,000
Horvat, Bo	C	5,500,000	5,500,000
Pearson, Tanner	LW	3,750,000	GONE
Ferland, Michael	LW, RW	3,500,000	3,500,000
Podkolzin, Vasily	RW	NA	925,000
Gaudette, Adam	C	2,000,000	2,000,000
Leivo, Josh	RW, LW	1,600,000	1,600,000
Nils Hoglander	LW	MINORS	891,667
Virtanen, Jake	RW	2,000,000	2,000,000
Sutter, Brandon	RW, C	4,375,000	GONE
Motte, Tyler	RW, LW, C	1,100,000	1,100,000
MacEwen, Zack	C, RW [TBODY] [/TBODY]	1,000,000	1,000,000
Graovac, Tyler	C	700,000	700,000
TOTAL		37,575,000	38,341,667
DEFENSE (8)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Hughes, Quinn	LD [TBODY] [/TBODY]	916,667	8,000,000
Alex Pietrangelo	RD	12,000,000	12,000,000
Edler, Alexander	LD	6,000,000	GONE
Rathbone, Jack	LD	MINORS	891,666
Myers, Tyler	RD	6,000,000	6,000,000
Fantenberg, Oscar	LD	1,500,000	1,500,000
Tryamkin, Nikita	RD	2,000,000	2,000,000
Benn, Jordie	LD	2,000,000	GONE
Rafferty, Brogan	RD	700,000	700,000
Woo, Jet	RD	MINORS	891,666
TOTAL		31,116,667	31,983,332
GOALIES (2)	POS	2020-21	2021-22
Markström, Jacob	G	5,500,000	5,500,000
Louis Domingue	G	1,200,000	1,200,000
TOTAL		6,700,000	6,700,000
BUYOUT HISTORY		2020-21	2021-22
Spooner, Ryan		$1,033,333
TOTAL		$1,033,333
RECAPTURE PENALTY		2020-21	2021-22
Luongo, Roberto		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
TOTAL		$3,033,206	$3,033,206
Total Cap Hit		79,458,206	80,058,205
Projected Cap		81,500,000	81,500,000
Remaining Space		2,041,794	1,441,795

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Essentially We have to let our $2M+ UFAs walk except Markstrom (Tanev+Tiffoli this year; Edler+Pearson+Sutter+Benn the next) and jettison Eriksson + Roussel + Beagle + Baertschi this off-season. I figure we likely have a compliance buyout or 2 and we can trade Demko, our 1st, 2nd, and our 3rd next year and we still come out ahead by signing Pietrangelo.

Pettersson at 8m is very low. Based off ELC production, he should be getting paid somewhere between Eichel and Matthews. Although, I don't know how the effects of Corona virus could change the value of contracts.

 

[rypper]

Pettersson at 8m is very low. Based off ELC production, he should be getting paid somewhere between Eichel and Matthews. Although, I don't know how the effects of Corona virus could change the value of contracts.

Pettersson's next deal is going to be double digits for sure.

 

[rypper]

Says who?

Fans.

 

[604]

Pettersson at 8m is very low. Based off ELC production, he should be getting paid somewhere between Eichel and Matthews. Although, I don't know how the effects of Corona virus could change the value of contracts.

Note, I used last year's cap as well.

I don't think Pettersson has shown as a guy who will be $10m+ at this point. He's never broken 80 points as an offense first player.

I don't think Toronto loves the contract they gave Mariner and he finished top 5 in scoring, 94 points, the year before he signed it and again scored at a significantly higher pace then Pettersson last year.

Love the player, have his jersey, but I think Pettersson is being highly overvalued here.

 

[rypper]

Note, I used last year's cap as well.

I don't think Pettersson has shown as a guy who will be $10m+ at this point. He's never broken 80 points as an offense first player.

I don't think Toronto loves the contract they gave Mariner and he finished top 5 in scoring, 94 points, the year before he signed it and again scored at a significantly higher pace then Pettersson last year.

Love the player, have his jersey, but I think Pettersson is being highly overvalued here.

A direct comparable for Pettersson is Jack Eichel.

Eichel signed his 8 year, 80 million dollar deal after 2 seasons.

81gp 24g 32a 56p
61gp 24g 33a 57p

Pettersson has put up in his first two years:

71gp 28g 38a 66p
68gp 27g 39a 66p

Pettersson is at least getting an Eichel deal.

 

[604]

A direct comparable for Pettersson is Jack Eichel.

Eichel signed his 8 year, 80 million dollar deal after 2 seasons.

81gp 24g 32a 56p
61gp 24g 33a 57p

Pettersson has put up in his first two years:

71gp 28g 38a 66p
68gp 27g 39a 66p

Pettersson is at least getting an Eichel deal.

Does the Eichel deal help Buffalo win games?

If you want win, benchmark against successful teams rather than bad ones.

Crosby and Malkin taking lower deals helped Pittsburgh immensely; McDavid took less than he could have by a significant margin. You won't be able to compete if you can't get the same from your players.

Pettersson at $10M on a bridge deal likely doesn't contribute to a winning team while if he and Hughes sign at $7M, and the owner's commit to spending to the cap, then the odds of bringing in a cup increases dramatically.

 

[Peter10]

Does the Eichel deal help Buffalo win games?

If you want win, benchmark against successful teams rather than bad ones.

Crosby and Malkin taking lower deals helped Pittsburgh immensely; McDavid took less than he could have by a significant margin. You won't be able to compete if you can't get the same from your players.

Pettersson at $10M on a bridge deal likely doesn't contribute to a winning team while if he and Hughes sign at $7M, and the owner's commit to spending to the cap, then the odds of bringing in a cup increases dramatically.

Why would they sign for less when Benning just uses the money on guys like Eriksson, Beagle, Myers etc?

Also when Crosby signed his 8.7m deal the cap was at 64.3m and it was a 12y deal

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Note, I used last year's cap as well.

I don't think Pettersson has shown as a guy who will be $10m+ at this point. He's never broken 80 points as an offense first player.

I don't think Toronto loves the contract they gave Mariner and he finished top 5 in scoring, 94 points, the year before he signed it and again scored at a significantly higher pace then Pettersson last year.

Love the player, have his jersey, but I think Pettersson is being highly overvalued here.

Eichel and Matthews didn't break 80 points during their ELCs either. These are Pettersson's comparables and how they produced on their ELCs:

Aho: 0.814 ppg. Signed at 10.4% of cap.
Eichel: 0.847 ppg. Signed for 12.6% of the cap.
Matthews: 0.96 ppg. Signed for 14.3% of cap
Marner: 0.97 ppg. Signed for 13.3% of cap.
Point: 0.865. Signed a 3x6.75 bridge. 9m for qualifying offer.

Pettersson has so far produced at 0.95 ppg. Well above Aho and Eichel, and just below Matthews and Marner. The only way Pettersson is getting 8m is if the cap goes down considerably, or if he signs a bridge deal like Point. If we can get Pettersson at around 10-10.5 long-term, do it and don't look back.

 

[rypper]

Does the Eichel deal help Buffalo win games?

Yes, yes he does.

Pettersson at $10M on a bridge deal likely doesn't contribute to a winning team.

I don't think Elias and his agent think about that.

 

[VanillaCoke]

I expect EP to come in under 10m aav. Backed up by absolutely nothing but possibly wishful thinking, but I don't see a huge 8yr 80m contract for him just yet.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

I expect EP to come in under 10m aav. Backed up by absolutely nothing but possibly wishful thinking, but I don't see a huge 8yr 80m contract for him just yet.

At minimum, He's worth 9.5 Aav. I'd sign him to a 80m/8yr contract instantly. If se stays at his current production, he might be a bit overpaid. If he improves it will be a steal of a contract that will become better over time.

 

[604]

Yes, yes he does.



I don't think Elias and his agent think about that.

Eichel should serve as a cautionary tale for players.

Eichel signs a huge, long-term, contract, with no discount, his team proceeds to suck despite him meeting or exceeding expectations, now he is unhappy and wants out despite his millions and is trapped in a long-term deal.

If I'm Petey and Hughes, I would agree as a pair to take less on bridge deals and see how things go with UFAs and overall team competitiveness.

Take less and see if it works out from a competitiveness standpoint. Better to be rich with a job you love then slightly more rich with a job you dislike.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Eichel should serve as a cautionary tale for players.

Eichel signs a huge, long-term, contract, with no discount, his team proceeds to suck despite him meeting or exceeding expectations, now he is unhappy and wants out despite his millions and is trapped in a long-term deal.

If I'm Petey and Hughes, I would agree as a pair to take less on bridge deals and see how things go with UFAs and overall team competitiveness.

Take less and see if it works out from a competitiveness standpoint. Better to be rich with a job you love then slightly more rich with a job you dislike.

There is a case to be made for securing a long term high dollar amount deal though. Athletes in contact sports run the risk of injuries, locking in say $80M for 8 years is much safer than doing a $21M for 3 years bridge deal (for example). God forbid but if something bad happens within the next 3 years, you are leaving nearly $60M on the table.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

You have explained your position clearly, thank you rockets.

Thinking on this for a few days, I guess I'm just taken aback by the thinking that another Pettersson (for the sake of argument), is less valuable to this team than Horvat + Boeser due to either roster imbalance or the trading of surplus assets. This just seems highly illogical to me. No matter how ill the fit, the player's rarity and quality does not change. And so...?

Extra pieces can be replaced. Non-Elite top6ers can be supplemented. The only area that cannot be reasonably upgraded is the very top end.

I mean, just take a look at the structure of this team: It's a team being carried by a select few. The rest of the roster is largely pedestrian to outright anchors. The difference between them and other teams is the elite talent. The very top end. Yet here, the argument is against the acquisition of elite talent in order to maintain depth. Or, wait for exactly the right elite talent to surface for trade, as if these things are naturally timed?

I respect your opinion rockets.

In a vacuum if you can trade depth for top end talent, you do it 10 out of 10 times. Problem is that isn't the case here. If you can somehow manage to shred the multi-years contract of Eriksson Ferland and Beagle then sure by all means bring in Eichel.
Even if you have 2 elite C, if you surround them with garbage, you aren't going anywhere. Look no further then Edmonton, who have 2 centers that are significantly better than EP or Eichel, yet they are capped out and have no depth, its not working out for them too good either. Key pieces like 2nd pairing defensemen or top 6 wingers aren't as easily available as you think, when you have no cap space to work with. You can't expect Eichel to come here and play with Eriksson and Motte and expect him to earn his $10M. You are just creating a different set of problems, and now Eichel is still upset and you have a whole new headache. I guess I just don't see how a team with 3-4 superstars and a bunch of bottom 6 F/bottom pairing D and no cap space can be competitive (ie: cup contender) in the salary cap world. Not the Oilers, not the Leafs, not even proven winners like Kane/Toews or Doughty/Kopitar can do it alone.
Make no mistake though, we SHOULD be able to add Eichel now to catapult us into contenders, if we didn't blow $20M on garbage and if we can build a league average D. We are unable to take advantage of this once in a blue moon opportunity due to the mis-management of Benning. Which is unfortunate.
Imagine a scenario where we don't have Eriksson, Beagle, Ferland, Baerstchi and Roussel (all bad contracts at the time of signing, no hindsight needed), we can make that Eichel trade and still throw $12M/year at Pietrangelo and re-sign Markstrom. I'd argue we be the favorite to win the West for the next 4 years. Oh well...

 

[tradervik]

Take less and see if it works out from a competitiveness standpoint. Better to be rich with a job you love then slightly more rich with a job you dislike.

That might be better for the players but I doubt their agents feel the same.