Roster Moves: 2020 Offseason/Post-Mortem Thread

[Psuhockey]

They are cutting salary across the board down there. Rumor was they need to be 10 million below what they were this year.

Barkov should be your new target. Only two years left on the deal. Will be 27 when he is up. The final piece to the Stanley Cup puzzle. Barkov Couturier and Hayes down the middle with the Flyers defense hitting their prime would be nasty.

 

[Psuhockey]

That's what happens when you overpay a "name" HC and go on a spending frenzy to win now, when you don't win now, it's usually "win never."

I told y'all that Q was overrated, he lucked into the perfect situation in Chicago and road it as long as it would go, when Bylsma does that with the Pens "he's lucky", when Q does it in Chicago, "he's a genius." Bylsma's luck ran out when his goalies went south in the playoffs, Q's luck ran out when his Chicago teams got old.

I'm just hoping AV gets lucky in Philly - better to be lucky than be good.

Outside of Trotz, all coaching in this league is overrated. Players win. A coach can only hinder. That’s why it’s hard to find Stanley cup winning teams without a few hall of famers on there. St Louis and Carolina are probably the only ones I can think of in recent memory.

 

[VladDrag]

ow he has a team that is going to be loaded the next few years, but has only one legitimate first line player in Couts, but a bunch of 2nd line veterans (Giroux, Voracek) and young players (Lindblom, TK) and a slew of 3rd/4th round guys. He's going to roll 4 lines next year, limit his veterans' minutes and keep the kids who skate full speed every shift over the more talented ones because he wants to establish a culture of "balls to the walls

(Not particularly at you DH, but feel free to respond)
How do you even define a 1st vs 2nd line player? It's is thru scoring metrics? Jake, TK, JvR, and Lindblom are all in the top 66 of 398 forwards of total 5v5 points/60 who played 300 min or more this year. That's 83th percentile for scoring. TK, Lindblom, Giroux and JvR are all in the top 80 of 398 for xGF/60; that's the 80th percentile for scoring.

I feel like people don't understand what first line talent really is, or feel as though you can only have 'elite' talent on the first line. Couts is the best player on the team and I would consider him an elite player (still don't fully know how to define that). I would certainly say TK and Giroux are first line players. I would say Jake and Lindblom are first line caliber players as well.

But the whole idea of 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd line is moot without a discussion on deployment. AV doesn't really spread out 5v5 TOI to make much of a difference. I mean, Couts played 13:58/GP (the most) and NAK played 10:05/GP (least) for him.

The way this team is constructed is thru it's depth. They have the ability to put a legit first line together and two additional very good scoring lines together. My lineup would look something like this, barring trades:

Lindblom-Couts-TK
JvR-Hayes-Giroux
Farabee-Frost-Jake
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

PP1: JvR, Farabee, Giroux, Jake,
PP2: Couts or Hayes, Lindblom, TK, Frost

In this scenario, I would like to see that top line playing 15-16 mins a night at 5v5. All three of those players are better at 5v5 than PP situations. Leverage their skills the best you can. The second and third lines are going to get 12-14 min of 5v5 time, and get additional PP time. The bottom line gets about 8-10 min of 5v5 time.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

id throw everything at a eichel or barkov package.

We're not putting those two in the same class, right? I don't want to put words in your mouth.

 

[landsbergfan]

Which is exactly why nobody should click on that article.

Don’t reward writers for being lazy and stupid.

he isn't lazy and stupid, he is is a clickbait POS. He knows what will get people to comment and create traffic. I'd call the ones that read his stuff the stupid ones.

 

[FLYguy3911]

OTOH we wouldn’t have wakeboard gifs if no one read Sielski pieces.

 

[Adtar02]

You're so proud of yourself yet you don't even know who I was referencing. Your clan does that tho, misrepresents and categorizes a ton of stuff to prop themselves up as the authoritarians of the board. Be better...do better

And you wonder why there was a discussion of the toxic culture some posters try tirelessly to create here

I asked and you didn’t answer.

 

[Curufinwe]

It’s also very relative to the location/franchise we are discussing. I don’t know the financials of the team but indications are they were under the impression they had a chance to compete. It’s makes sense with the moves. Unfortunately what they probably didn’t tell the fan base since they are a small market team is their opportunity to compete was only a season of two before they had to trim salary.

I don’t think Q is just a name and overrated. I believe all coaches have strengths and weaknesses. Q has more strengths than weaknesses but his contract and cost hurts teams like Florida and not larger market teams like the flyers. Again, very much relative to the team. Florida/Arizona/Winnipeg and other teams all have much more considerations to weigh when spending than the Flyers do.

Covid is hitting some teams harder than others.

 

[Curufinwe]

(Not particularly at you DH, but feel free to respond)
How do you even define a 1st vs 2nd line player? It's is thru scoring metrics? Jake, TK, JvR, and Lindblom are all in the top 66 of 398 forwards of total 5v5 points/60 who played 300 min or more this year. That's 83th percentile for scoring. TK, Lindblom, Giroux and JvR are all in the top 80 of 398 for xGF/60; that's the 80th percentile for scoring.

I feel like people don't understand what first line talent really is, or feel as though you can only have 'elite' talent on the first line. Couts is the best player on the team and I would consider him an elite player (still don't fully know how to define that). I would certainly say TK and Giroux are first line players. I would say Jake and Lindblom are first line caliber players as well.

But the whole idea of 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd line is moot without a discussion on deployment. AV doesn't really spread out 5v5 TOI to make much of a difference. I mean, Couts played 13:58/GP (the most) and NAK played 10:05/GP (least) for him.

The way this team is constructed is thru it's depth. They have the ability to put a legit first line together and two additional very good scoring lines together. My lineup would look something like this, barring trades:

Lindblom-Couts-TK
JvR-Hayes-Giroux
Farabee-Frost-Jake
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

PP1: JvR, Farabee, Giroux, Jake,
PP2: Couts or Hayes, Lindblom, TK, Frost

In this scenario, I would like to see that top line playing 15-16 mins a night at 5v5. All three of those players are better at 5v5 than PP situations. Leverage their skills the best you can. The second and third lines are going to get 12-14 min of 5v5 time, and get additional PP time. The bottom line gets about 8-10 min of 5v5 time.

G and Hayes never seemed to click, so I'd go with a top 9 of.

Giroux-Couturier-Voracek
Farabee-Hayes-Konecny
JVR-Frost-Lindblom

 

[deadhead]

(Not particularly at you DH, but feel free to respond)
How do you even define a 1st vs 2nd line player? It's is thru scoring metrics? Jake, TK, JvR, and Lindblom are all in the top 66 of 398 forwards of total 5v5 points/60 who played 300 min or more this year. That's 83th percentile for scoring. TK, Lindblom, Giroux and JvR are all in the top 80 of 398 for xGF/60; that's the 80th percentile for scoring.

I feel like people don't understand what first line talent really is, or feel as though you can only have 'elite' talent on the first line. Couts is the best player on the team and I would consider him an elite player (still don't fully know how to define that). I would certainly say TK and Giroux are first line players. I would say Jake and Lindblom are first line caliber players as well.

But the whole idea of 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd line is moot without a discussion on deployment. AV doesn't really spread out 5v5 TOI to make much of a difference. I mean, Couts played 13:58/GP (the most) and NAK played 10:05/GP (least) for him.

The way this team is constructed is thru it's depth. They have the ability to put a legit first line together and two additional very good scoring lines together. My lineup would look something like this, barring trades:

Lindblom-Couts-TK
JvR-Hayes-Giroux
Farabee-Frost-Jake
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

PP1: JvR, Farabee, Giroux, Jake,
PP2: Couts or Hayes, Lindblom, TK, Frost

In this scenario, I would like to see that top line playing 15-16 mins a night at 5v5. All three of those players are better at 5v5 than PP situations. Leverage their skills the best you can. The second and third lines are going to get 12-14 min of 5v5 time, and get additional PP time. The bottom line gets about 8-10 min of 5v5 time.

For most players, "top 6" is a better term than first line, as we've seen, scoring depends on your linemates, the year Voracek and TK both played with G and Couts, both had their scoring fall off when they played on the 2nd line, TK more dramatically than Voracek b/c Voracek was the better player.

So to me a "1st line player" is elite or just a notch below, and other players benefit from playing with those players. The players who are interchangeable in the top 6 are "top six players," and that's the majority of players on 1st lines. And we see that, these kind of players are often shuffled between the top two lines by HCs looking for "chemistry."

Malkin is a good example, he plays on the 2nd line but is a 1st line talent, on most teams he'd be the 1C.
Sheary, Rust et al may play with Crosby on the 1st line, and pad their stats, but are they top six talents?

So you have:
Couts - our 1st line driver
G, Voracek, Lindblom, TK, all could play on either line, depending on their roles.

Middle six is a way to categorize guys just below the top six tier but better than most bottom six players, they can move up or down.
Hayes, JVR, Farabee, Laughton are really not top six players, though Farabee will be in a couple years.
Hayes is tricky, I think he can be a top 6 RW, but I'm not sold on him as a top 6 center.
JVR scores at a top six rate, but has ended up on the 3rd line in both Toronto and Philly, so HCs like to shelter him.

Frost, Patrick - top six talents but total unknowns right now (potential is a dirty word and health is an issue)

Bottom six are guys who simply lack the skills to be credible in the top six long-term, Raffl played on the first line but he's not a top six player.
4th line guys are primarily energy guys who lack the skill to be given a larger offensive role, Pitlick is a perfect example, when asked to do more than forecheck his offensive deficiencies were glaring.

Raffl, NAK, are bottom six guys who are credible on the 3rd line
Bunnaman, Twarynski, Sushko would be considered 4th line until proven otherwise.
Sandin, Laczynski are potential 3rd line guys but may start on the 4th line.
Allison and Ratcliffe are potential top six forwards but may need a couple years to see if they develop.
Brink has top six talent.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Wouldn't matter. He's not allowed to play in preseason games anyways.

He's going to need to wait until there's enough injuries that he's forced into the lineup and then pray they don't lose a single game to give them an excuse to scapegoat him.

I complained about that and was pretty much laughed at.

 

[VladDrag]

G and Hayes never seemed to click, so I'd go with a top 9 of.

Giroux-Couturier-Voracek
Farabee-Hayes-Konecny
JVR-Frost-Lindblom

I really don't subscribe to that as much as others. The production wasn't there, but they're underlying metrics together were strong.

During regular season: Giroux and Hayes on the ice had a CF% of 51.64%, and an xGF% of 53.48. The didn't score any goals together, but I don't think that continues. They just kinda got snake bitten. During the postseason, their numbers were even better.

Also, I think Hayes and JvR together are great. JvR is the perfect guy to play with Hayes, he doesn't need the puck on his stick for long periods of time to be productive in the offensive zone.

 

[deadhead]

I really don't subscribe to that as much as others. The production wasn't there, but they're underlying metrics together were strong.

During regular season: Giroux and Hayes on the ice had a CF% of 51.64%, and an xGF% of 53.48. The didn't score any goals together, but I don't think that continues. They just kinda got snake bitten. During the postseason, their numbers were even better.

Also, I think Hayes and JvR together are great. JvR is the perfect guy to play with Hayes, he doesn't need the puck on his stick for long periods of time to be productive in the offensive zone.

Problem with JVR and Hayes together is defense, both are big guys who don't reverse the ice quickly, once Hayes is in position he's a good defender with his knack at breaking up plays with his long reach.

 

[Audible Velvet]

I really don't subscribe to that as much as others. The production wasn't there, but they're underlying metrics together were strong.

During regular season: Giroux and Hayes on the ice had a CF% of 51.64%, and an xGF% of 53.48. The didn't score any goals together, but I don't think that continues. They just kinda got snake bitten. During the postseason, their numbers were even better.

Also, I think Hayes and JvR together are great. JvR is the perfect guy to play with Hayes, he doesn't need the puck on his stick for long periods of time to be productive in the offensive zone.

I like what you're saying about JVR and Hayes. Who are you putting on the right side with them?

 

[VladDrag]

I like what you're saying about JVR and Hayes. Who are you putting on the right side with them?

Giroux.

The lines I posted earlier were:

Lindblom-Couts-TK
JvR-Hayes-Giroux
Farabee-Frost-Jake
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

 

[TheKingPin]

I don’t want to trade our first. I think we are due for the next Giroux. Right about the same spot I think too.

 

[Petr Svoboda Mullet]

Just realized Dadonov is a UFA. He's a damn good winger. No clue why Florida let him get to UFA. Idiots.

Dump JVR, sign Dadonov, profit.

 

[Chinatown88]

I don’t want to trade our first. I think we are due for the next Giroux. Right about the same spot I think too.

@Captain Dave Poulin

Edit: Rags pick right before us. Almost a repeat of 2006. It's time.

 

[Starat327]

Giroux.

The lines I posted earlier were:

Lindblom-Couts-TK
JvR-Hayes-Giroux
Farabee-Frost-Jake
Raffl-Laughton-NAK

Giroux shouldnt be anywhere near Hayes. Giroux needs the puck to be productive, and Hayes will never give it to him.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

I know frost can play center but...will he be more productive on the wing or at center? I am not saying this because of the "he is small or soft" BS. Just strictly wondering. Nothing wrong with him being more productive on the wing. There were a lot of players that ended up being better wingers than centers.

Center IMO. In the same mold as a Brayden point. You want those type of players with that type of vision, in the middle of the ice in space.

 

[BernieParent]

Lose.

Allude.

Laughton played center quite a lot last season, but that mostly stopped once Grant arrived. It didn’t help the team.

Centre.

 

[Chinatown88]

Centre.

 

[Adtar02]

G and Hayes never seemed to click, so I'd go with a top 9 of.

Giroux-Couturier-Voracek
Farabee-Hayes-Konecny
JVR-Frost-Lindblom

might switch the wings some
Flip frost and Coots.

Ideally I like

Lindblom Coots tk
G Frost Voracek
Farabee Hayes Nak. Nak plays straight forward. Farabee plays off his teammates.
Maybe JVR Hayes Farabee.

Hayes is the odd ball.

 

[flyersnorth]

I don’t want to trade our first. I think we are due for the next Giroux. Right about the same spot I think too.

I think we may have already gotten that with TK.... and possibly Frost.

We need a Brayden Point or Kucherov type of pick.

 

[VladDrag]

Giroux shouldnt be anywhere near Hayes. Giroux needs the puck to be productive, and Hayes will never give it to him.

I don't disagree that Giroux performs better without Hayes than without him, but I don't subscribe to that idea that they can't play together (BTW - G's stats without Hayes also coincide with G's stats with Couts). That's really not what the stats are telling me. Their regular season rel stats:

	xGF	xGF%
G+H	0.34	2.96
G	0.39	4.54
H	-0.07	-2.16

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Their PDO was 0.897 - they had no goals scored for. That's just not going to happen forever.

Additionally, I'm looking at what's best for the team, not what's best for Giroux solely. Giroux played well this year (he didn't get the production stats to go along with it it this year), but there's been slight but measurable decline in his game. Not just by eye, but also through stats. It's not like he's fallen off a cliff, but it's not 2012 anymore. I think it's time that you give the reigns to the younger players and allow them to grow into the prime time players they have the potential to be.

I also put those lines together thinking about the NZ game. Hayes and Jake are the best NZ forwards, so you want to keep those players apart. I think that the line of 23-14-11 is our best 5v5 line, so you don't separate them. If you wanted to, you could put Farabee on the right side of Hayes and JvR, but I think you get more from Farabee on the left and side.