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NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XI [We got 3-5]

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H2O said:
Wouldn’t mind to be honest. Both played pretty well in the DEL.
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I agree. If we were around 20 ish I would certainly consider them. At 13-15 I like some others more. If the Isles win their play in round.. those guys could be in play.
 
Sens of Anarchy said:
From these 3 groups; based purely on upside, not risk, chances of hitting it or need or anything else ; If they hit it to the max, who ya havin'?

1. Byfield or Stutzle
2. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, Sanderson
3. Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Jarvis, Guhle, Schneider

Not easy choices Mine are
1. Byfield
2. Perfetti
3. Amirov
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My choices are

1. Byfield
2. Raymond
3. Mercer
 
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Sens of Anarchy said:
From these 3 groups; based purely on upside, not risk, chances of hitting it or need or anything else ; If they hit it to the max, who ya havin'?

1. Byfield or Stutzle
2. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, Sanderson
3. Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Jarvis, Guhle, Schneider

Not easy choices Mine are
1. Byfield
2. Perfetti
3. Amirov
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Mine

1. Byfield
2. Raymond
3. Gunler
 
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aragorn said:
I was just kidding around with SOA, but I like Cuylle a lot. Coe & Colangelo are guys that could add some depth, but as you say there could be better players in those draft positions the Sens have. I think Coe could be had in the 3rd rd & Colangelo might drop. I don't know much about Groshev, but seems to be a guy with some skill that could go late 2nd or early 3rd, not sure.

I agree, there are a lot of decent players up for grabs in the 3rd to late rds as well & hopefully the Sens are able to get some rough diamonds there. They could walk away from this draft with 10 to 12 good players, if they don't use their picks to move up or make some deals. Sure makes for an interesting draft. Not to mention any NCAA free agents they might sign, any word on that?
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I haven't heard any mention of NCAA players so I don't expect the Sens to sign any. I thought they might have considered inviting some to a development camp and then consider signing them if they impressed but at this point there likely won't be a development camp. Also the NCAA players I like will likely go back another season and then if they continue to perform well then the Sens could consider signing them.

As for the power forward prospects there are other prospects worth considering and I am not sure if I would take 3 from that list. I have posted a list of prospects that are gritty and those that also have size before but if you would like me to post it again I can. I do however like both Cuylle and Groshev and think they are worth targeting. I am not sure if I like Coe and Colangelo as much and would likely target other big forwards or take different prospects where they likely will get drafted.
 
This includes all USHL, USNTDP, AJHL, BCHL, CCHL, NAHL, USPHL (NCDC) season games as well as other leagues. Here is a good opportunity to check out some free games.
 
Here is a game to scout Alex Young (#13), Carter Savoie (#88) and Michael Benning (#4).


 
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Sens of Anarchy said:
From these 3 groups; based purely on upside, not risk, chances of hitting it or need or anything else ; If they hit it to the max, who ya havin'?

1. Byfield or Stutzle
2. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, Sanderson
3. Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Jarvis, Guhle, Schneider

Not easy choices Mine are
1. Byfield
2. Perfetti
3. Amirov
Click to expand...

Purely upside?

Byfield
Sanderson
Gunler

Easy. Byfield all around animal. Sanderson would be like Hedman for us. Gunler top line scorer.
Perfetti/Raymond close second to Sanderson but Sanderson would be unbelievable for us shutting down top lines with ease and Chabot eating up the rest.
 
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JD1 said:
Yes there is a tremendous misunderstanding of what a late birthday means. I think you're the guy with that misunderstanding

There is a tremendous amount of data on NHL participation and birthdates. The data overwhelmingly shows that those born in the first half of the year outnumber those in the latter half. Those born in the 1st quarter outnumber those born in the 4th quarter by more than a 2 to 1 margin.

Study suggests NHL has bias in favour of players born earlier in the year

You might consider that those born earlier in the year have a maturity advantage from the time they are essentially born to the time they are men. Those kids born in the last quarter and being age advantaged to start their NHL career are survivors of age disadvantage. For basically the first time in their careers they are NOT at a disadvantage.

I am born in December. I'd turn 10. Before the year is out, there'd be guys on my team that are 12. That's the reality of guys with late birthdays. I remember being one of 4 guys on a team in grade 7 with 12 or 13 guys in grade 8. And if i was a week younger, I'd been in grade 6. It's not an advantage.
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He is right. The early birthday is a advantage when players are getting selected for competitive teams in leagues that use a Jan 1 as a filter date. Most minor hockey in Canada uses J1. That is a different concept than getting drafted in the NHL which uses Sept 15th.
 
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Sweatred said:
He is right. The early birthday is a advantage when players are getting selected for competitive teams in leagues that use a Jan 1 as a filter date. Most minor hockey in Canada uses J1. That is a different concept than getting drafted in the NHL which uses Sept 15th.
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Are you aware of any hockey leagues that use something other than birth year as a cut off. For that matter, are you aware of ANY sport in Canada that has a national governing body that uses something other than birth year apart from size based sports like martial arts? That's a serious question. I'm asking. I'm not aware of any

Look, there's no credible analysis suggesting that having a late birth date is an advantage in hockey as far as producing professional athletes is concerned. I don't doubt at all that you can produce data that supports whatever f***ing conclusion you want, but that's a failure of interpretation.

Reality is that kids born in the last quartile are disadvantaged. Period. Any analysis of birth data establishes that. Not just in sports but in school as well.

Producing a graph that shows off points like what was posted here....ya i get the graph...it's just an idiotic conclusion.
 
JD1 said:
Are you aware of any hockey leagues that use something other than birth year as a cut off. For that matter, are you aware of ANY sport in Canada that has a national governing body that uses something other than birth year apart from size based sports like martial arts? That's a serious question. I'm asking. I'm not aware of any

Look, there's no credible analysis suggesting that having a late birth date is an advantage in hockey as far as producing professional athletes is concerned. I don't doubt at all that you can produce data that supports whatever f***ing conclusion you want, but that's a failure of interpretation.

Reality is that kids born in the last quartile are disadvantaged. Period. Any analysis of birth data establishes that. Not just in sports but in school as well.

Producing a graph that shows off points like what was posted here....ya i get the graph...it's just an idiotic conclusion.
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Yes - baseball in Canada (little league not OBA) uses an August 31st date to filter kids. It drastically changes the dynamic of who filters out on the top teams. For example a Jan 1 kid will get the Age/growth advantage at hockey and will be a year older than some of his peers he/she plays against. In baseball the Sept1 kid kids that advantage. Late birthdays in baseball are more common on the top teams.

Any time you apply an age filter you create a situation of advantage for some and disadvantage for others. If the NHL used July 1 Byfield would be drafted next year and Laf would be in the NHL. By field would have another full year in the OhL to play and for people to evaluate his strengths and weaknesses. He also probably puts of 20 more points and dominates at the WJC in his draft year and is the easy 1OA. Meanwhile Rossi went 18th last year. Age filters are significant.
 
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Sweatred said:
Yes - baseball in Canada (little league not OBA) uses an August 31st date to filter kids. It drastically changes the dynamic of who filters out on the top teams. For example a Jan 1 kid will get the Age/growth advantage at hockey and will be a year older than some of his peers he/she plays against. In baseball the Sept1 kid kids that advantage. Late birthdays in baseball are more common on the top teams.

Any time you apply an age filter you create a situation of advantage for some and disadvantage for others. If the NHL used July 1 Byfield would be drafted next year and Laf would be in the NHL. By field would have another full year in the OhL to play and for people to evaluate his strengths and weaknesses. He also probably puts of 20 more points and dominates at the WJC in his draft year and is the easy 1OA. Meanwhile Rossi went 18th last year. Age filters are significant.
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Well, i stand informed on baseball but i don't follow it anyway

In hockey its calendar year and the advantage is to those born early
 
JD1 said:
Producing a graph that shows off points like what was posted here....ya i get the graph...it's just an idiotic conclusion.
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I thought the point of the graph was that when looking at a draft that uses a 16 sep cutoff taking players from a league that uses a 1 jan cutoff, those kids born sep to dec are suddenly getting compared to the age group one year back from them giving them a systemic advantage.

Drafting a late sep to dec kid takes away some risk associate wth the unknowns of a players dev curve, so i suspect there are fewer busts, but kids born jan to sep tend to have advantages all along their development so are more likely (from birth) to develop into top tier athletes in the first place.

What this means when trying to choose a player to draft is going to be nuanced, if you have two identical players, one born sep 17th and one 1 jan going into the same draft, that player born in sep might have been at a disadvantage all the way up but now has a year of extra development vs the Jan born kid when teams decide which to draft. Teams have more info for the sep kid so maybe hes less likely to bust but perhaps has less developing remaing.
 
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Day Man said:
Drafting goalies in round one is generally a no no but if askarov drops to the isles pick are you guys fine with taking him? The sens could potentially leave the draft with a number 1 c in Byf/Stutz a number 1 D in drysdale and a number 1 g in askarov all from the first eound.
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Would absolutely take him with isles pick. Even if he busted, who cares, they have so many prospects
 
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If we dont and up taking Raymond at 5, there are a bunch of quality RW around that Isles pick.

Holloway (played some RW at Wisconson but shoots left)
Perrault
Jarvis
Mercer

(Past 20 possibly)
Gunler
Foerster
Bourque (he may need to move to the wing)
 
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Day Man said:
Drafting goalies in round one is generally a no no but if askarov drops to the isles pick are you guys fine with taking him? The sens could potentially leave the draft with a number 1 c in Byf/Stutz a number 1 D in drysdale and a number 1 g in askarov all from the first eound.
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I find that goalies are difficult to assess in terms of future potential. We have one now who was rated highly and we traded for him; but he has not developed enough. I would rather take a forward or defensemen.
 
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