NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XI [We got 3-5]

[Qward]

Put me in the boat for Drysdale with #5 and Stutzle with #3.
BPA is Drysdale over Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond.

RHD are rare these days.
Imagine in a couple years

Chabot / Drysdale
Brannstrom / JBD
Wolanin / Thomson

 

[RAFI BOMB]

His skating isn’t a strength even in the Q, he’s able to overcome and shadow that because he can overpower everyone, and even if he gets caught on the boards on a rush he can just force his way past. It’s going to hinder him at the pro level, but he is extremely skilled for a big man.

So basically he would need to become one of the strongest and most powerful athletes in the NHL to translate that ability. He may have some genetics that could take him a long way but that is no small feat to reach that level of athleticism. Thanks for the insights.

 

[aragorn]

Are you suggesting drafting 3 of Groshev, Coe, Colangelo and Cuylle, with one of the picks being Cuylle? I am not sure I would go that route. Even with bigger forwards I might consider a larger list of players to pick from. There are also some decent skill forwards with either average size or a stocky build which I would consider. Then for just the size element there are prospects I like that should be available in rounds 4 to 7. I am all for adding size and grit in this draft but we still need to be strategic in how we go about that.

I was just kidding around with SOA, but I like Cuylle a lot. Coe & Colangelo are guys that could add some depth, but as you say there could be better players in those draft positions the Sens have. I think Coe could be had in the 3rd rd & Colangelo might drop. I don't know much about Groshev, but seems to be a guy with some skill that could go late 2nd or early 3rd, not sure.

I agree, there are a lot of decent players up for grabs in the 3rd to late rds as well & hopefully the Sens are able to get some rough diamonds there. They could walk away from this draft with 10 to 12 good players, if they don't use their picks to move up or make some deals. Sure makes for an interesting draft. Not to mention any NCAA free agents they might sign, any word on that?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Would you settle for two of those guys & one Cuylle? After all, we have four 2nds & two turds, I mean two 3rds. Cuylle & Groshev shoot left while the other two shoot right & a couple of those guys could still be available in the 3rd.

Cuylle would add another element on LW like BT IMO that could really help a line especially one with smaller skilled players. It's not like Cuylle is unskilled, he's been a pretty good forward & likes to get his nose dirty, Ottawa could always use another player like that to mix it up. I like those three too though.

Yup but .. If it was only one .. I'd take the Power RW since we already have a Power LW. .. Groshev can play either wing.. but there seems to be a tendency in the MHL and KHL to play on your off wing.

Cuylle did not progress much from his DY-1 to his DY if that means anything. IMO he will go earlier than I would be prepared to take him.

Its nice to say he is the next Tom Wilson and if he is great I want him. If I am the GM I would want at least 3 players that are really hard to play against. Big Bodies that can wear you down and that have some potential to play up the lineup and contribute and play with a bit of an edge..So I would probably draft a couple of more of these players at the right place late 2nd , 3rd and hope I hit with one of them. Colangelo would probably be my 1st choice of the 4. I have liked Groshev since I saw him at the World U18s in 2019. Not much production in the KHL but he's young for that league with the style that he plays. Cuylle over Coe I could be talked into if we have one of the other guys. I do think Coe has some good upside and could end up being a valuable pick. He has to grow into his frame a bit. I would like to see us add a playmaking LW and a goal scoring LW. Cuylle on the 4th line LW.. sure I could go for that; but I am not taking a guy I am targeting for the 4th line in the 2nd.

 

[aragorn]

People saying Byfield lacks puck control and playmaking, would you move him to the wing in the NHL?

Or would you be satisfied that he becomes a version of Eric Staal.

Flame away.

I think learning to play centre in the NHL will take some time & I expect that Byfield will start off his pro career on LW, a lot of young centres do. However, at some point I think he moves to centre & dominates that position in time. And if his floor is Eric Staal that would be great for Ottawa since IMO Staal was a very good NHL player & Byfield could be that much better. And if they also have L. Brown & Norris at centre Ottawa could be quite strong at centre.

 

[aragorn]

Yup but .. If it was only one .. I'd take the Power RW since we already have a Power LW. .. Groshev can play either wing.. but there seems to be a tendency in the MHL and KHL to play on your off wing.

Cuylle did not progress much from his DY-1 to his DY if that means anything. IMO he will go earlier than I would be prepared to take him.

Its nice to say he is the next Tom Wilson and if he is great I want him. If I am the GM I would want at least 3 players that are really hard to play against. Big Bodies that can wear you down and that have some potential to play up the lineup and contribute and play with a bit of an edge..So I would probably draft a couple of more of these players at the right place late 2nd , 3rd and hope I hit with one of them. Colangelo would probably be my 1st choice of the 4. I have liked Groshev since I saw him at the World U18s in 2019. Not much production in the KHL but he's young for that league with the style that he plays. Cuylle over Coe I could be talked into if we have one of the other guys. I do think Coe has some good upside and could end up being a valuable pick. He has to grow into his frame a bit. I would like to see us add a playmaking LW and a goal scoring LW. Cuylle on the 4th line LW.. sure I could go for that; but I am not taking a guy I am targeting for the 4th line in the 2nd.

Ottawa could have three guys that could be very hard to play against already in Tkachuk, Formenton & maybe Pinto not to mention Kastelic who could find himself on the 4th line at some point. Add to these guys some big players like L. Brown, Paul & one of these guys from the 2020 draft & Ottawa could be a very difficult team to play against. Should be a very interesting & fun time to see who this team drafts this yr & what kind of team they are trying to build. What I like about Coe is that he's not just big, but a pretty fast skater too that can put defencemen on their heels.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I'm with you on Zary. Seems like an ottawa type pick as well. I got my fingers crossed. But there should be other good options there too. I mean if Jarvis is around please grab him. Foerster(not sure about TF, he at least looks like mark stone out there ) should be there, Guhle, Holloway, Reichel, Wallinder. There's going to be some really good players there.

I like Zary too, but there's a lot of really good players in that should be available in that range. I would expect Zary and most of those names you mentioned will be gone if we pick where the pick is slotted now. I'm not quite as high on Wallinder, Foerster or Reichel; if that tier of players generally ranked top 15 is all gone, I'm looking for Shakir Mukhamadullin, Ty Smilanic and Jan Mysak.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Not sure how we keep the high level of interest in the prospects ... with how much time there is to do evaluations. So easy to overthink this and get overly critical. I do wish the Sens had more voices in the room from Europe for some balance in perspective.

Its one thing to watch video and another to have been in the stands watching ... The scouts reporting from live scouting have an advantage in watching where the camera isn't and having personal contacts in the rinks at the games.

There's more than they've had for a few years now. Mikko Ruutu, Petr Havluj, Anders Östberg. Still small, but they've got some eyes. Not sure how high is the trust level in Östberg right now after Viktor Lodin was his first pick. But Dorion, Mann, Ruutu and others have seen Raymond and Holtz enough I'm sure.

 

[BondraTime]

There's more than they've had for a few years now. Mikko Ruutu, Petr Havluj, Anders Östberg. Still small, but they've got some eyes. Not sure how high is the trust level in Östberg right now after Viktor Lodin was his first pick. But Dorion, Mann, Ruutu and others have seen Raymond and Holtz enough I'm sure.

Havluj isn’t with the Sens, he left to play in the 5th Chezch league this year.

 

[Icelevel]

I wouldn’t be mad if we took Quinn with 5. I know it sounds a bit nuts and it’s a risk but I wouldn’t be mad.

 

[JD1]

It actually means the opposite. It shows that draft eligible players with late birthdays from Sep 16-Dec 31 are at a big advantage compared to players born Jan 1-Sep 15.

The reason for this is obvious - players born Sep 16-Dec 31 don't get drafted with the Jan 1-Sep 15 kids of the same birth year. They get drafted with the following birth year due to the NHL's late-birthday cut-off, which is intended to ensure the players legal adults by the time they enter NHL training camps.

Basically the late-birthdays get an extra development year to show their stuff. Statistically, 2001-born late-birthdays like Lafreniere, Lundell, Rossi, etc... should be compared with other 2001-born kids, most of whom were drafted in 2019. Comparing their production uncritically to that of 2002-borns like Stutzle, Byfield, Raymond, etc... will lead to the late-birthdays being overrated. This happens every year on HF as there is a tremendous misunderstanding of what it means to be a late-birthday.

Yes there is a tremendous misunderstanding of what a late birthday means. I think you're the guy with that misunderstanding

There is a tremendous amount of data on NHL participation and birthdates. The data overwhelmingly shows that those born in the first half of the year outnumber those in the latter half. Those born in the 1st quarter outnumber those born in the 4th quarter by more than a 2 to 1 margin.

Study suggests NHL has bias in favour of players born earlier in the year

You might consider that those born earlier in the year have a maturity advantage from the time they are essentially born to the time they are men. Those kids born in the last quarter and being age advantaged to start their NHL career are survivors of age disadvantage. For basically the first time in their careers they are NOT at a disadvantage.

I am born in December. I'd turn 10. Before the year is out, there'd be guys on my team that are 12. That's the reality of guys with late birthdays. I remember being one of 4 guys on a team in grade 7 with 12 or 13 guys in grade 8. And if i was a week younger, I'd been in grade 6. It's not an advantage.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Havluj isn’t with the Sens, he left to play in the 5th Chezch league this year.

Ouch. I saw he was playing there, but I assumed he was scouting part time over there. Don't think the 5th league is a full-time, bill-paying gig.

 

[JD1]

100 pt season ... when exactly can we expect Stutzle to have a 100 pt season? Wishful thinking IMO.

Idk...i don't think it's unreasonable to hope that a top 2 pick in a strong draft puts up a 100 point season at some point. There were 5 guys pacing above 100 last year and a couple extra guys with a shot at it. It's not a totally outrageous expectation

 

[BondraTime]

Ouch. I saw he was playing there, but I assumed he was scouting part time over there. Don't think the 5th league is a full-time, bill-paying gig.

It’s not a bill paying league, unsure if it was his or the Sens decision to part ways.

No clue how he became an NHL level scout in the first place, has never scouted before, was 22, and never played a high level hockey.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Idk...i don't think it's unreasonable to hope that a top 2 pick in a strong draft puts up a 100 point season at some point. There were 5 guys pacing above 100 last year and a couple extra guys with a shot at it. It's not a totally outrageous expectation

I don't think it is unlikely for him to have a couple throughout his career, but as I've stated before, I expect Stützle's style, like Kane or Barzal or Panarin to result in them often not scoring at a rate commensurate with their overall value. He'll be a possession wizard for sure, but I think the points will be somewhat dependent on other variables.

 

[MatchesMalone]

It’s not a bill paying league, unsure if it was his or the Sens decision to part ways.

No clue how he became an NHL level scout in the first place, has never scouted before, was 22, and never played a high level hockey.

Strange. I wonder if he's related to Vladimir Havluj of the Red Wings. It isn't listed on EP.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

There's more than they've had for a few years now. Mikko Ruutu, Petr Havluj, Anders Östberg. Still small, but they've got some eyes. Not sure how high is the trust level in Östberg right now after Viktor Lodin was his first pick. But Dorion, Mann, Ruutu and others have seen Raymond and Holtz enough I'm sure.

So Havluj not much of a presence if any, Ostberg with his one big swing and in the penalty box... Pretty light presence imo

 

[MatchesMalone]

So Havluj not much of a presence if any, Ostberg with his one big swing and in the penalty box... Pretty light presence imo

Haha yeah I just learned Havluj is no longer with the team. I take it back. Probably no Euros high unless it is Lundell.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Haha yeah I just learned Havluj is no longer with the team. I take it back. Probably no Euros high unless it is Lundell.

I am more worried about missing on the late 1st - 2nd and later round ones than the top guys.. I am sure they've done their homework on them. (I hope)

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

From these 3 groups; based purely on upside, not risk, chances of hitting it or need or anything else ; If they hit it to the max, who ya havin'?

1. Byfield or Stutzle
2. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, Sanderson
3. Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Jarvis, Guhle, Schneider

Not easy choices Mine are
1. Byfield
2. Perfetti
3. Amirov

 

[Cosmix]

Ottawa could have three guys that could be very hard to play against already in Tkachuk, Formenton & maybe Pinto not to mention Kastelic who could find himself on the 4th line at some point. Add to these guys some big players like L. Brown, Paul & one of these guys from the 2020 draft & Ottawa could be a very difficult team to play against. Should be a very interesting & fun time to see who this team drafts this yr & what kind of team they are trying to build. What I like about Coe is that he's not just big, but a pretty fast skater too that can put defencemen on their heels.

BUT, I still want a player like Reaves.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[H2O]

From these 3 groups; based purely on upside, not risk, chances of hitting it or need or anything else ; If they hit it to the max, who ya havin'?

1. Byfield or Stutzle
2. Perfetti, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, Sanderson
3. Amirov, Gunler, Mercer, Jarvis, Guhle, Schneider

Not easy choices Mine are
1. Byfield
2. Perfetti
3. Amirov

If we get Stutzle, do you think there’s a chance we pick Peterka or Reichel with the Isles pick? Assuming the pick is in the late teens or early 20s.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

If we get Stutzle, do you think there’s a chance we pick Peterka or Reichel with the Isles pick? Assuming the pick is in the late teens or early 20s.

There is a chance for sure.