I would short that bet any day all day. There are too many other decent teams in a short round robin tournament.Maybe more like 65%. That's still almost double the chance to win, as in, heavy favorites.
But more importantly, I don't see what is it that Latvia has over Belarus. I think we can establish quite clearly Belarus has a better defense, better offense and arguably a slight edge in goal as well. So all in all, other than the hope that Latvians are well-oiled and Belarus disjointed, what is there in Latvia's favor? 4th line depth?
I don't see any edge in goal and our bottom 6 and lower pairing Ds are better.