2020 Entry Draft Order for LA Kings discussion

[ricardfromage]

So the NHL rigged the draft lottery to have Edmonton win year after year, and also reward New Jersey because they're a hockey hot bed? That makes complete sense. I think being trapped at home and the lack of hockey is causing some people to lose their minds.

I think I couldn't agree with you more. Maybe stepping away from the computer for a minute or two is a good thing for ALL of us.

 

[Schmooley]

It is alright to live tightly wrapped in your opinion of how things work but not alright to accuse others of ignorance to disagreeing with you.

Well in his fairness, hes not being tightly wrapped in his opinion of how things work.
Hes living in reality. Its called the draft lottery. It isnt his opinion of how it works. Its how a draft lottery in reality works.
Now whether or not reality is a lie, we will never know. The nhl rigging a draft lottery of unproven teenage hockey players seems silly to rig. I think there are more important conspiracies with huge consequences that lose truth when the waters are muddied with “everything in the system is a lie” train of thought.

 

[ricardfromage]

Well in his fairness, hes not being tightly wrapped in his opinion of how things work.
Hes living in reality. Its called the draft lottery. It isnt his opinion of how it works. Its how a draft lottery in reality works.
Now whether or not reality is a lie, we will never know. The nhl rigging a draft lottery of unproven teenage hockey players seems silly to rig. I think there are more important conspiracies with huge consequences that lose truth when the waters are muddied with “everything in the system is a lie” train of thought.

I agree, he is living in his understanding of what he believes reality to be. I believe that it is possible that his interpretation/version of reality is incorrect. As to rather or not it would be silly for the NHL to rig a lottery of unproven talent (that I believe is a logical fallacy) I couldn't disagree with your assertion more. I mean look at how much money is made in the sale of top draft pick merch. I mean look at the revenue that was generated by drafting players like McDavid and other players of his ilk (Hughes jersey's were the #1 selling jersey last year) etc. Say Wpeg drafted Hughes instead of NJ (for arguments sake) do you think that the same amount of money would be made in regards to merchandising season ticket sales etc? Having top/elite talent go to the top media market teams has been going on to some sort forever in the NHL. I am not by the way the only reputable person (away from here anyways) who think's that there could be something wrong with our current "lottery" system. That doesn't come close to making me right but it doesn't prove me wrong either. In closing as I won't post on the matter after this I will say that my belief is in the potential of foul play not a certainty of it.

 

[Maynard]

I agree, he is living in his understanding of what he believes reality to be. I believe that it is possible that his interpretation/version of reality is incorrect. As to rather or not it would be silly for the NHL to rig a lottery of unproven talent (that I believe is a logical fallacy) I couldn't disagree with your assertion more. I mean look at how much money is made in the sale of top draft pick merch. I mean look at the revenue that was generated by drafting players like McDavid and other players of his ilk (Hughes jersey's were the #1 selling jersey last year) etc. Say Wpeg drafted Hughes instead of NJ (for arguments sake) do you think that the same amount of money would be made in regards to merchandising season ticket sales etc? Having top/elite talent go to the top media market teams has been going on to some sort forever in the NHL. I am not by the way the only reputable person (away from here anyways) who think's that there could be something wrong with our current "lottery" system. That doesn't come close to making me right but it doesn't prove me wrong either. In closing as I won't post on the matter after this I will say that my belief is in the potential of foul play not a certainty of it.

The problem though, is that you have ZERO data to back this up. You don’t like the draft results, you think something is “fishy”, therefore it must be rigged. Your hunch is meaningless, there is absolutely no data to support it. So now everyone is challenging you and you’re taking your ball and going home.

“I won’t post on the matter after this”. Yeah I bet.

 

[Statto]

Actually, the 2018 draft went almost exactly how you would expect given the numbers, and the system worked near perfectly.
Here was the order of finish by performance:
1. Buf
2. Ott
3. Ari
4. Mon
5. Det

Here were the lottery results:
1. Buf
2. Car (from 11 spot, 3.3%)
3. Mon
4. Ott
5. Ari
6. Det

Notice:
(1) The worst team with the best odds got to pick first
(2) The bottom 4 all picked in the top 5
(3) The team outside top 4 (Det) only dropped 1 spot
(3) No team in the top 5 dropped more than 2 spots (2 dropped 2 spots, 1 dropped 1)
(3) Only one outlier, Car at 2, is what you would expect as no draft is perfect

Compare to 2019:
Performance:
1. Ottawa
2. LA
3. NJ
4. Det
5. Buf

Lottery:
1. NJ (from 3 spot, 11.5%)
2. NYR (from 6 spot, 7.8%)
3. Chi (from 12 spot, 3.0&)
4. Ott (dropped 3 spots)
5. LA (dropped 3 spots)
6. Det (dropped 2 spots)

Way too many improbable results 2019
And all improbable results were NY/Chi
In 2018 it works just like it should...
In 2019 nothing worked like it should...

The way probability works means that 2018 is more fishy than 2019 as you should absolutely expect all lottery picks to be risers from the initial draft order. I’m not calling 2018 into question either btw, just making the point wrt how you should expect these things to work. The 2019 draft order is exactly in line with how I’d expect to see statistical probability play out. The lottery is not fixed but when it comes to conspiracy theories people will believe what they want to, so it’s a pointless discussion.

 

[King'sPawn]

I am not by the way the only reputable person (away from here anyways) who think's that there could be something wrong with our current "lottery" system.

Post one reputable person who suggests or hints there's foul play (not someone who dislikes the way the system is designed).

Heck, go ahead and post someone reputable whose issues with the lottery system go beyond "my team didn't win and it's unfair."

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Post one reputable person who suggests or hints there's foul play (not someone who dislikes the way the system is designed).

Heck, go ahead and post someone reputable whose issues with the lottery system go beyond "my team didn't win and it's unfair."

My beef with it is how bad it feels to finish near last. That's nothing to do with it being rigged and I'm not sure how you fix it, but what a kick in the balls it is to finish 2nd to last and drop to 5th pick while teams JUST outside the playoffs win. Like I said, can you imagine if the Kings would have won the McDavid draft? I guarantee you someone more creative than me would have had a 'fix' after that one. Generally speaking I like it as it is as it disincentivizes out-and-out tanking to a degree (sabres, oilers pre-mcdavid), but imagine a team as bad as Detroit missing out on Stutzle, Laf, and Byfield.

 

[King'sPawn]

My beef with it is how bad it feels to finish near last. That's nothing to do with it being rigged and I'm not sure how you fix it, but what a kick in the balls it is to finish 2nd to last and drop to 5th pick while teams JUST outside the playoffs win. Like I said, can you imagine if the Kings would have won the McDavid draft? I guarantee you someone more creative than me would have had a 'fix' after that one. Generally speaking I like it as it is as it disincentivizes out-and-out tanking to a degree (sabres, oilers pre-mcdavid), but imagine a team as bad as Detroit missing out on Stutzle, Laf, and Byfield.

A team like Detroit won't automatically be fixed just by drafting Stutzle, Laf, and Byfield. It helps a lot, but they have a lot more to do to fix as far as their organization and infrastructure.

They still have a guaranteed top-five pick, but their scouting and development has to be more than one prospect deep. Which is why I love the setup as is.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

A team like Detroit won't automatically be fixed just by drafting Stutzle, Laf, and Byfield. It helps a lot, but they have a lot more to do to fix as far as their organization and infrastructure.

They still have a guaranteed top-five pick, but their scouting and development has to be more than one prospect deep. Which is why I love the setup as is.

Ultimately I totally agree. There's more to it than being just handed great players, which is why I don't really have beef with it.

Just wish there was something to do about the feeling of being a shit team AND being more likely to be passed by another up-and-coming team for 1st overall than to get it yourself.

Even in our spot, will be annoying to see, say, Vancouver vault up and get Lafreniere.

I still have a hard time verbalizing it, other than saying it's feels like a lottery for everyone BUT the last place teams, where it's more of a punishment.

 

[cyclones22]

Ultimately I totally agree. There's more to it than being just handed great players, which is why I don't really have beef with it.

Just wish there was something to do about the feeling of being a shit team AND being more likely to be passed by another up-and-coming team for 1st overall than to get it yourself.

Even in our spot, will be annoying to see, say, Vancouver vault up and get Lafreniere.

I still have a hard time verbalizing it, other than saying it's feels like a lottery for everyone BUT the last place teams, where it's more of a punishment.

Yep, I feel the same way you do. Go ahead and run the Tankathon simulator about 10 times and you'll find that a GREAT majority of the time, the results will have at least 2 jumpers in the top 3 and frequently all 3 spots. That's because the odds actually favor for that to happen. It won't be the same teams consistently jumping into the top 3, of course. But the fact that a bottom 3 team is more likely to drop out of the top 3 of the draft than stay in it, is pretty ridiculous. Honestly, they should ban any team that wins the #1 overall from being able to pick in the top 3 for 3 years or something. NJ is in position to win 3 of the last 4 draft lotteries. No team should be allowed that benefit. It's how the Penguins came to power and of course Edmonton helped make the rules as they are today thanks to their idiotic management.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Honestly, they should ban any team that wins the #1 overall from being able to pick in the top 3 for 3 years or something. NJ is in position to win 3 of the last 4 draft lotteries. No team should be allowed that benefit.

 

[KopitarFAN]

I'm sure this has been discussed, but if the season gets called off and they include all 31 teams in the lottery, they either need to use the 2005 format (base it on playoff appearances the last 5 years (not sure what you do about VGK) etc) or go back to the old format where if you win only move up 4 spots.

I lean toward the old format because you can't have a team that was going to cruise into a playoff spot getting a top 3 pick.

 

[RocketKing]

I'm sure this has been discussed, but if the season gets called off and they include all 31 teams in the lottery, they either need to use the 2005 format (base it on playoff appearances the last 5 years (not sure what you do about VGK) etc) or go back to the old format where if you win only move up 4 spots.

I lean toward the old format because you can't have a team that was going to cruise into a playoff spot getting a top 3 pick.

I agree that if they do toss everyone in then they should only allow them to move up 4 spots. If a really good team got one of the top 4 players in this draft it would really make the NHL look like shit.

 

[Nickster]

Draft Lottery System 2021...
Pick 1 goes to an equal odds lottery between 2nd and 3rd last place teams in each division
Pick 2 goes to an equal odds lottery between 2nd and 3rd last place teams in each division
Pick 3 goes to an equal odds lottery between all non-playoff teams
Pick 4 goes to an equal odds lottery between all non-playoff teams and first round losers of playoffs.
remaining picks are done by reverse points order, easy peasy.
Pros: incentive to be competitive. Bad teams might want to improve at the trade deadline. Hitting the playoff threshold does not kill your lottery odds.
The four WORST teams are still guaranteed picks in 3-8 range so they are not overly punished, but there is no big reward for being last.
Near miss playoff teams don't get picks 1 or 2.

 

[TwzKing]

The idea of us getting f***ed in a random draft lottery makes my stomach turn

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

I'm sure this has been discussed, but if the season gets called off and they include all 31 teams in the lottery, they either need to use the 2005 format (base it on playoff appearances the last 5 years (not sure what you do about VGK) etc) or go back to the old format where if you win only move up 4 spots.

I lean toward the old format because you can't have a team that was going to cruise into a playoff spot getting a top 3 pick.

I don't understand why people think why this situation would lead the league into allowing all 31 teams in the lottery. This isn't like the last lockout where the entire season was cancelled and there was NOTHING to base standings off of...we have played 85-90% of the season.

 

[Sleeping Dog]

Gotta hope Cliffy signs with TML. Would love another 2nd pick!

I don’t know how they’ll fit him under their cap, but we can hope.

Maple Leafs, Kyle Clifford Interested In Extension

 

[Rorschach]

I’m hoping they have a 1 team lottery like before and they limit a team from moving up more than three spots, based on today’s record. Then the Kings at worst would pick 5 instead of 4 and have a chance at #1.

Then it’s Lafreniere or Drysdale for me...unless Stutzle drops to 4/5.

 

[KopitarFAN]

I don't understand why people think why this situation would lead the league into allowing all 31 teams in the lottery. This isn't like the last lockout where the entire season was cancelled and there was NOTHING to base standings off of...we have played 85-90% of the season.

Nobody actually clinched a playoff spot, ideally you're right and they would only allow the 15 teams who wouldn't have made it had the season ended that day, but you never know with this league.

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

It's very hard to have this conversation because the possibilities are so wide as to where the Kings will draft. For the purpose of putting a name to it I will operate under the assumption that they draft 4. Of that's the case, I'd like Drysdale. He's the best player (assumed) and a position of need.

I've been all for Drysdale from the start of 2019-20 season. But after the season Doughty,Walker and Roy have made the need for another RD-man has dissipated(we have S Durzi and J Spence coming up also) and the focus for me has been a RWinger to replace Brown! And that player could very well be Alexander Holtz. This player can skate, score and is a great playmaker as well. Besides I think Ottawa takes Byfield and Drysdale after Lafreniere is gone providing the Sens don't win it!

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I’m hoping they have a 1 team lottery like before and they limit a team from moving up more than three spots, based on today’s record. Then the Kings at worst would pick 5 instead of 4 and have a chance at #1.

Then it’s Lafreniere or Drysdale for me...unless Stutzle drops to 4/5.

For me Alexander Holtz would be the choice the Kings should make. He's a pure scorer! Of course if the Kings win the lottery then LA-Freniere would be outstanding!

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

At #4 I think we should go with Stutzle or Rossi.

I don't like Stuetzle mainly because he scored 7 goals in the German league and that doesn't make me sit easy...does he have the makings of a number 1 LWinger? I think not!Marco Sturm may have a say but I think Futa and Yannetti don't think he is, I believe. Rossi is OK...does he play Centre or the Wing...the Kings have a whole lot of Centres! I prefer RWinger Alexander Holtz. He's a great skater,scorer and playmaker!I'm liking that the Kings are drafting a tonne of Swedes and some Finns! It would make Juha Widing(RIP),Tomas Sandstrom and Jari Kurri proud!

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I'm just gonna guess LA stays at #4. Which one of Rossi, Stutzle, Drysdale, Holtz and Raymond will be available. Hope they choose correctly.
Jaromir Pytlikand and Seth Jarvis could be interesting 2nd round selections.

Like to see the Kings parlay a couple of their second rounders(35, & 48) and maybe a 3rd(66) to get a another first rounder(17th)and a 4th(99)(hello New Jersey)! Rooting for the Kings to take Alexander Holtz with the 4th overall...he could play with Alex Turcotte...that's a whole lot of talent...maybe Fagemo could play the portside...all of those can skate,make plays and put the puck in the net

 

[Steve Zissou]

@andys Posts 4 posts in a row today... all 4 responses consist of Alexander Holtz. </thread>

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

For now with Ottawa picking 2nd and 3rd, i'd think they would consider drafting a forward and defenseman. My guess is Byfield will fall to the Kings at 4.

Kings don't need anymore Centres they have tonnes and some of them will have to play the wing(Thomas,Kupari,Madden...)I would like Holtz at number 4. If Byfield falls to them trade the pick(4th overall) for New Jersey's first(6th and 17th) and a 4thR(99th)for LA's(1st) some 2nds(35,48 and a third(77th)! Then LA can get the forward they want without reaching and the D-man they want that doesn't have to fitted into the line-up in a year or two(Drysdale)