GDT: 2020-21 season game 17 LA Kings vs St. Louis Blues @5:00pm 2/22/21

[Kurrilino]

A while ago I posted that the Kings should protect Brown at the expansion draft, and the response was something to the effect of, "The Kings would be idiots to protect Brown" and "We'd be so glad if Seattle took Brown." I still think the Kings will protect Brown. He should retire a King. He's earned it.

If the Kings lose a 3rd pairing D or a bottom six forward, so be it. That's the whole idea of the draft. Why gift a 1st line winger, a former captain, and a heart and soul player to a team in your division?

The idea behind this is that nobody will pick up Brown or Carter because they are at the end of their careers.
It's kinda creating 2 more virtual spots to protect the young guns

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Shouldn't we also get rid of Kings wins because of injuries to other teams if we're going to do this thought experiment?

I'm not ignoring them, you'd have to take that up with Jesse. I'm simply saying that a Kings team in full flight has had the 2012 post-deadline Kings record over the last quarter-season worth of games spread across a variety of situations and were literally seconds from being even better on paper.

 

[BigKing]

Shouldn't we also get rid of Kings wins because of injuries to other teams if we're going to do this thought experiment?

Exactly.

I'm still sticking with my belief that a 2008-09 type season is where this team is at but it might ultimately look better than that due to the following:

- Biggest reason if all is the division alignment. Much more of an '09 season when you make it an 82 game grind with much more travel for all these younger guys that aren't used to so many games. Toss in the level of competition and they could make the playoffs when they wouldn't have in a normal season.

- I didn't think Bjornfot would be on the team all year. If he stays and the blue line remains healthy, then this 4th spot is very much in play. Blake will kick himself though if he keeps Bjornfot past the game limit and then Doughty goes down for 4 weeks and they fall out of the playoff hunt and a year was just burned off of the ELC. They are far more concerned with the long-term outlook v. trying to make a run this season. Tough line to walk though if they are 7-0 with Bjornfot in the lineup. Send him back down and Doughty might revert back to the Doughty of the last couple of years. Of course, that means another high draft pick which I believe was part of the ultimate goal this year: be much more competitive, tease a playoff spot but still pick Top 10/add trade chips.

My best case scenario for this team was not too far under .500 in a normal 82 game season. They might top that with the shortened season and division alignment. Brown also can't keep up this pace but, all that said, last night was probably the most fun I've had watching this team in years. They legitimately looked like a real hockey team but so did the '09 team for stretches. I just want to keep seeing the young guys get better because this will all lead to an even better 2021-22 season when they possibly add some of the Ontario youngsters and maybe some sort of legit NHL talent via trade/FA.

 

[Telos]

It's a tough call. Sending Toby down would be purely an accounting move at this point. It's clear he is where he belongs. In the end, shooting for the playoffs is important, but they have to keep their eye on the ball and know that while anything can happen in the playoffs, this team isn't 100% out of the rebuild and they should still be open to gaining assets for some of the players on their roster. Blake is playing this game by game and he would still entertain any offer seriously. The Kings have a lot to consider, they have aging veterans, an expansion draft awaiting them, and hopes of making the playoffs but no real confidence at winning a Stanley Cup. I'm fine with burning a year of Bjornfot's contract, but if someone knocks on our door for Carter, Quick, or maybe even Brown now, you'd have to listen.

Brown is now becoming something very interesting. If he keeps up his play, he may very likely be selected by Seattle. You can't protect him. He's someone, if I were in charge, I'd never consider moving, he belongs in a Kings sweater for life and to retire here if he wishes, but if I took my emotions out and looked at it in a Moneyball, analytical way, you trade him away at the deadline all day long if there is a suitor. The irony is that the better the Kings and their vets play, the more heartwrenching this next year or two tempts to be.

 

[tny760]

Exactly.

I'm still sticking with my belief that a 2008-09 type season is where this team is at but it might ultimately look better than that due to the following:

- Biggest reason if all is the division alignment. Much more of an '09 season when you make it an 82 game grind with much more travel for all these younger guys that aren't used to so many games. Toss in the level of competition and they could make the playoffs when they wouldn't have in a normal season.

- I didn't think Bjornfot would be on the team all year. If he stays and the blue line remains healthy, then this 4th spot is very much in play. Blake will kick himself though if he keeps Bjornfot past the game limit and then Doughty goes down for 4 weeks and they fall out of the playoff hunt and a year was just burned off of the ELC. They are far more concerned with the long-term outlook v. trying to make a run this season. Tough line to walk though if they are 7-0 with Bjornfot in the lineup. Send him back down and Doughty might revert back to the Doughty of the last couple of years. Of course, that means another high draft pick which I believe was part of the ultimate goal this year: be much more competitive, tease a playoff spot but still pick Top 10/add trade chips.

My best case scenario for this team was not too far under .500 in a normal 82 game season. They might top that with the shortened season and division alignment. Brown also can't keep up this pace but, all that said, last night was probably the most fun I've had watching this team in years. They legitimately looked like a real hockey team but so did the '09 team for stretches. I just want to keep seeing the young guys get better because this will all lead to an even better 2021-22 season when they possibly add some of the Ontario youngsters and maybe some sort of legit NHL talent via trade/FA.

do you just eat the ELC slide at this point though with how stable bjornfot has been? i'm trying to temper myself but man does that kid look good out there. like i get that another year of cost control is really nice, but i can't help but feel, like someone said the other day, that he (and roy for that matter) look like a muzzin/martinez contract in waiting. you're pretty likely to get value out of the kid one way or another no?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

do you just eat the ELC slide at this point though with how stable bjornfot has been? i'm trying to temper myself but man does that kid look good out there. like i get that another year of cost control is really nice, but i can't help but feel, like someone said the other day, that he (and roy for that matter) look like a muzzin/martinez contract in waiting. you're pretty likely to get value out of the kid one way or another no?

I think we have enough guys on ELCs that utilizing slide years just for the sake of accounting isn't really a good move. Likely better that they're staggered, anyway, instead of just trying to squeeze the life out of them while being detrimental to the team.

It's a tough call on Toby, because 1st pairing AHL minutes would be good for both the Reign and him, but he looks like a stud in the NHL.

My personal vote would be send Toby down bring Clague up but that's neither here nor there

 

[BigKing]

do you just eat the ELC slide at this point though with how stable bjornfot has been? i'm trying to temper myself but man does that kid look good out there. like i get that another year of cost control is really nice, but i can't help but feel, like someone said the other day, that he (and roy for that matter) look like a muzzin/martinez contract in waiting. you're pretty likely to get value out of the kid one way or another no?

I kind of agree with RJ above in that it isn't going to kill Bjornfot's development to have him eat minutes in Ontario. It could actually help the other prospects down there as well.

Clague already has an AHL all-star nod under his belt and is much older. I'd like to see him getting the NHL minutes at this point unless they want to try and hide him from Seattle.

 

[Bandit]

Shouldn't we also get rid of Kings wins because of injuries to other teams if we're going to do this thought experiment?

I mean 17-8-4 is still pretty f***ing good.

 

[redcard]

There's no guarantee that sliding an ELC will save any cap space. Do what's best for the players' development. f*** the cap.

When we were winning cups what cap problems did we really have? We couldn't sign Lucic? Not exactly a loss there. Williams would have left for the East Coast anyway. The Voynov debacle maybe, but that was an extreme circumstance and was resolved once the league let us take his contract off the books.

 

[Ollie Weeks]

Clague and Roy looked decent together as well, so its not the end of the world if they send Toby down. On paper it’s not the very very best lineup we can be icing but it should be stable with Roy and Walker both back and the forwards no longer sucking on the breakouts.

I get it either way.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The injuries continue to mount for the Blues.

 

[tbrown33]

Not a fan of contract/service time manipulation for a couple reasons. First it can be a detriment to the player and his well-being, livelihood. If he’s good enough to play in the NHL, he should be in the NHL making an NHL salary.

Second, I’m not convinced it’s always in the team’s best interest either. Who’s to say a player won’t explode in that year you slid back, and now he’s looking for a much bigger contract than he would after his age 21 or 22 season? Let them play and buy some UFA years at the end of the ELC if necessary. Either way you’re just guessing how it’ll all play out.

 

[BigKing]

RE: Bjornfot...if a big minute eater like Doughty went down, what happens? Does he stay attached to Roy or does Roy slide up along Anderson. If he's getting the same minutes but is partnered with someone other than Roy, is it still the best for his development while also taking into account the ELC slide? Hell, what if Roy goes down again and he's having to eat those minutes with Walker which then makes the 3rd pairing worrisome?

I mean, it is probably best for his development to stay where he is at in a perfect world that sees him glued to Roy's side and any injuries to the D being anyone besides Doughty/Roy. It's really a question of how much further along does this put him v. playing in Ontario. Maybe the cap doesn't matter a few years from now because they didn't slide him this season but it could also mean one season where they were able to have more of a stacked roster.

 

[cyclones22]

I mean 17-8-4 is still pretty f***ing good.

The bottom line is that the end of last season wasn't a mirage. It was signal that the team isn't a cellar dweller anymore. I never bought into the narrative that the opponents weren't playing for anything either. That run started with less than 60 games played in the season. Nobody knew that the season was going to end before 82. Many of those teams were battling for seeding. What's happening is pretty much what I was hoping for. Getting younger, getting better, the vets leading by example and the kids not getting their teeth kicked in night after night.

 

[regulate]

There's no guarantee that sliding an ELC will save any cap space. Do what's best for the players' development. f*** the cap.

It's more about controlling his cost for an extra season, thru 23-24 vs 22-23. That being said, I completely agree he should stay. He's had 77 games of pro experience prior to this 5 game NHL stint (in the SHL, AHL and NHL), and he's shown without a doubt he can play at this level. The Kings are 5-0 with him in the line up, and he has not been on the ice for an even strength goal against in any of those 5 games.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

It's more about controlling his cost for an extra season, thru 23-24 vs 22-23. That being said, I completely agree he should stay. He's had 77 games of pro experience prior to this 5 game NHL stint (in the SHL, AHL and NHL), and he's shown without a doubt he can play at this level. The Kings are 5-0 with him in the line up, and he has not been on the ice for an even strength goal against in any of those 5 games.

Bjornfot is remarkable. Can't tell by his play that he's still a teenager. I also can't believe people harped on his selection, and on top of that, I've seen some fans consider the Muzzin trade a bad one for the Kings.

 

[YP44]

The bottom line is that the end of last season wasn't a mirage. It was signal that the team isn't a cellar dweller anymore. I never bought into the narrative that the opponents weren't playing for anything either. That run started with less than 60 games played in the season. Nobody knew that the season was going to end before 82. Many of those teams were battling for seeding. What's happening is pretty much what I was hoping for. Getting younger, getting better, the vets leading by example and the kids not getting their teeth kicked in night after night.

maybe if the season doesn't get cancelled LA owuld have kept winning changing their draft position and not getting Byfeild.

 

[crassbonanza]

Bjornfot is remarkable. Can't tell by his play that he's still a teenager. I also can't believe people harped on his selection, and on top of that, I've seen some fans consider the Muzzin trade a bad one for the Kings.

I will always remember the threads on here about that pick, the whole night was people pissed off about selecting a low profile defenseman when Kaliyev was available. Then the Kings ended up snagging Kaliyev in the second round, so the pages of complaints ended up looking pretty pointless. They look even worse now that Bjornfot continues to grow as a prospect.

 

[crassbonanza]

It's more about controlling his cost for an extra season, thru 23-24 vs 22-23

You also get to his second contract sooner without sliding, this means being able to sign him before he reaches his peak. If he continues to grow, this could save the Kings a decent chunk of change in the long run.

 

[BigKing]

Bjornfot is remarkable. Can't tell by his play that he's still a teenager. I also can't believe people harped on his selection, and on top of that, I've seen some fans consider the Muzzin trade a bad one for the Kings.

It came down to wanting Kaliyev more v. Bjornfot not being a good player. Again, they played it perfectly and it is awesome.

I still take Kaliyev over him in a vacuum. People being upset the night of the draft had every right to be if they really wanted Kaliyev. They then had every right to be stoked the next day that Blake and Co. played a perfect poker hand.

 

[AzKing]

I doubt Blake burns the year with Bjornfot. If they are truly looking down the road, then they most likely are treating everyone like an asset and seeing how things project. I would like to see the kid stay with the Kings but control seems to be their main focus for the time being. They wouldn't say this publicly but the wins are just a nice element to go along with development of the kids. Their goal is long term stability and cost control. If they could trade one or more of their vets and get a good return while shedding the money, they probably would do that. It's always been a business with AEG. It's probably why they haven't even attempted to take on a junk contract to get assets.

A year without fans in the stands and no bonus playoff money is more important to AEG than anything so they are counting every bean.

 

[redcard]

It's more about controlling his cost for an extra season, thru 23-24 vs 22-23. That being said, I completely agree he should stay. He's had 77 games of pro experience prior to this 5 game NHL stint (in the SHL, AHL and NHL), and he's shown without a doubt he can play at this level. The Kings are 5-0 with him in the line up, and he has not been on the ice for an even strength goal against in any of those 5 games.

Right, but the AAV of a 2nd contract may be lower if its signed a year earlier.

Say, hypothetically pulling numbers out of my ass, you burn the year and sign him to a 4x4 at the end of 22-23.

Or you don't burn the year, he breaks out in 23-24 and you have to sign him to a 4x6.

Its a trade off of saving money for 1 year, or saving money over the duration of the 2nd contract and we can't realistically predict which option will be better. Best to just make the decision based on player development rather than risk making both the wrong player development decision and the wrong long term financial decision.

 

[All The Kings Men]

Shouldn't we also get rid of Kings wins because of injuries to other teams if we're going to do this thought experiment?

No.

 

[lumbergh]

You guys worry about that year of an ELC way too much. Bjornfot has earned his spot.

I'm most worried about Bjornfot's longevity. He's absolutely getting run into the end boards on a nightly basis. I like that he'll take a hit to make a play, but someone needs to tell him to move the puck a little faster.

 

[lumbergh]

Shouldn't we also get rid of Kings wins because of injuries to other teams if we're going to do this thought experiment?

The Kings are 8-6-3 this season. It's really the only record that matters. Every team is dealing with injuries and COVID-19 related absences. They're on a hot streak now. It's easy to look at the current hot streak and pool it together with their last hot streak and artificially call them good. They're where many of us thought they'd be, middle of the pack.