Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 5

[TheWayToRefJose]

Vlasic literally brings Karlsson down though. We need Karlsson to be his best. Id rather Merks or Ferraro deal with his shit for a year

Yes, but EK65 isn’t as drug down by Vlasic as Merkley would be.

It’s also going to be another shitty year anyways, so no need to ruin Merkley’s confidence by playing him with Vlasic in a year that doesn’t matter.

Also, imagine how salty Vlasic would be getting 12 minutes a night on the 3rd pair with a rookie.

 

[WSS11]

Yes, but EK65 isn’t as drug down by Vlasic as Merkley would be.

It’s also going to be another shitty year anyways, so no need to ruin Merkley’s confidence by playing him with Vlasic in a year that doesn’t matter.

Also, imagine how salty Vlasic would be getting 12 minutes a night on the 3rd pair with a rookie.

Hes already salty and playing like shit. Maybe this would piss him off enough to the point where he’ll demand a trade or waive his NMC so we can expose him in the upcoming expansion draft.

 

[Reggae Shark]

Hes already salty and playing like shit. Maybe this would piss him off enough to the point where he’ll demand a trade or waive his NMC so we can expose him in the upcoming expansion draft.

This seems to be the way DW captains this ship these days.

"let's just let things work themselves out" - DW

 

[seroes]

Hes already salty and playing like shit. Maybe this would piss him off enough to the point where he’ll demand a trade or waive his NMC so we can expose him in the upcoming expansion draft.

I'm still holding out for him being allergic to ice

 

[Cas]

I know the Sharks aren't going to sit Vlasic and aren't going to play him in a heavily sheltered role. Sports teams don't do that with expensive, veteran players unless its become beyond obvious that the player shouldn't be playing.

But that's a problem. Vlasic's contract is a sunk cost that, odds are, the Sharks are not going to be able to get out of - they can buy him out, they can hope that another team will want him without demanding a ruinous price and that Vlasic will be interested in moving, they can hope that the league will offer a cap-free buyout at some point, but odds are only the first of those is plausible, and it will hurt.

Because Vlasic's contract is a sunk cost, the Sharks should not be worrying about how much it'll suck to have a $7 million backup defenseman for the next six years. If the Sharks have six defensemen who are better than Vlasic, they're the ones who should be playing, unless by playing Vlasic the Sharks think they can convince someone to take him off their hands, but that may be unlikely.

Now, do the Sharks have six defensemen better than Vlasic? Probably not right now - neither Pasichnuk nor Merkley are proven - but by mid-season it may become clear that the Sharks do have six better defensemen than Vlasic. They won't bench him, but if he continues to play like he has, they should at least give it serious consideration.

 

[Lebanezer]

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I know the Sharks aren't going to sit Vlasic and aren't going to play him in a heavily sheltered role. Sports teams don't do that with expensive, veteran players unless its become beyond obvious that the player shouldn't be playing.

But that's a problem. Vlasic's contract is a sunk cost that, odds are, the Sharks are not going to be able to get out of - they can buy him out, they can hope that another team will want him without demanding a ruinous price and that Vlasic will be interested in moving, they can hope that the league will offer a cap-free buyout at some point, but odds are only the first of those is plausible, and it will hurt.

Because Vlasic's contract is a sunk cost, the Sharks should not be worrying about how much it'll suck to have a $7 million backup defenseman for the next six years. If the Sharks have six defensemen who are better than Vlasic, they're the ones who should be playing, unless by playing Vlasic the Sharks think they can convince someone to take him off their hands, but that may be unlikely.

Now, do the Sharks have six defensemen better than Vlasic? Probably not right now - neither Pasichnuk nor Merkley are proven - but by mid-season it may become clear that the Sharks do have six better defensemen than Vlasic. They won't bench him, but if he continues to play like he has, they should at least give it serious consideration.

The only option for Vlasic for the next three seasons is a buyout unless he asks out. That buyout is 99% likely to not be an option given the buyout formula and the pandemic stuff that will hurt for a while coming out of it. After that, he has a three team trade list. I don't think he's movable until after the bonus is paid out in 2024. At that point, Vlasic is a 37 year old d-man with a 7 mil cap hit probably worse than he is now and the teams that would typically like a 7 mil cap hit with a 4.5 or 5.5 mil payout for two years are teams he's likely not to have on his trade list.

We either ride Vlasic out or buy him out. My bet on that is 2024 for that though and I don't expect a trade to ever materialize given his contract.

 

[themelkman]

Not sure what we could give up but it would hurt

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Not sure what we could give up but it would hurt

I tend to doubt we have the assets to pull off a deal there.

 

[themelkman]

I tend to doubt we have the assets to pull off a deal there.

Oh we could, Meier or Hertl would no doubt interest them. But thats a bad idea

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh we could, Meier or Hertl would no doubt interest them. But thats a bad idea

Hertl's trade clause would prevent that from happening. I can't see DW being willing to part ways with Meier, even for Dubois.

 

[Mattb124]

If Dillon was still here I'd agree, but ultimately, there's no one else that the staff is going to trust with Merkley, a guy who hasn't played a game in the league yet. You could potentially make an argument for Simek, but I don't think that'll be the case. I mean, unless you think that someone will play their offside, but even in that case there's not really anyone else who would fit the bill to babysit him.

Dillon being gone only furthers the need to have Vlasic take on top comp. I personally don't think that Merkley will see a lot of NHL ice time this year, let alone be the reason that Vlasic plays in a 3rd pairing role.

 

[Gecklund]

Dillon being gone only furthers the need to have Vlasic take on top comp. I personally don't think that Merkley will see a lot of NHL ice time this year, let alone be the reason that Vlasic plays in a 3rd pairing role.

I think the idea with Vlasic-Merkley third pair is that you can just roll your pairings. Give each pairing around equal time and move players around as needed (if we need more shut down pair, move Vlasic with honestly any of the other D. If we need more offense put Burns/EK out there together, etc.)

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dillon being gone only furthers the need to have Vlasic take on top comp. I personally don't think that Merkley will see a lot of NHL ice time this year, let alone be the reason that Vlasic plays in a 3rd pairing role.

Dillon being gone doesn't change the need to have Vlasic take on top comp. That need isn't there because Vlasic can't take on top comp anymore. He's done in that regard. If the team is trying to win, their best bet is to have Vlasic on the 3rd pair where he may be able to feast on sheltered competition enough to make him valuable enough to trade if he wants out (due to the role change) or when his movement clause expires in 2024. I'd rather have a 7 mil successful 3rd pairing defenseman than a 7 mil failure top four defenseman. And honestly, Burns and Karlsson do perform better without him. The only convincing argument for Vlasic with them is that Vlasic's numbers tend to look their best with one of them even if the look of the pairing is awful which it tends to be.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think the idea with Vlasic-Merkley third pair is that you can just roll your pairings. Give each pairing around equal time and move players around as needed (if we need more shut down pair, move Vlasic with honestly any of the other D. If we need more offense put Burns/EK out there together, etc.)

That idea would be great especially for a condensed schedule but given the talent level on the Sharks, I just don't expect that to happen. The balanced strategy has to be followed with positive results for it to continue. Otherwise, coaches gonna coach and that means relying on their guys and hope for the best. Since we're a fringe playoff team at best, they need a fast start for this to work and hope they don't run out of gas or take on too many injuries/illnesses and considering what's going on in the world, I just don't have confidence in that happening.

If someone internally can lay claim to the 6th spot that's worth being confident in and Ferraro takes another step and becomes a top four caliber d-man, I'd be happy with the season, at least on defense, even if it ends poorly. To me, the defense would become more balanced if Ferraro gets to that 2nd pairing level and becomes more of a producer. Then we can shop Burns, hope that Merkley is either established already as an NHL'er or may do so after a year in the AHL. Either way, I'd like more puck-moving presence and offensive instincts from the left side. It's been lacking for pretty much a decade. Ehrhoff was the last real offensive presence blue liner from the left side. Ferraro could and should be better but time will tell.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Dillon being gone only furthers the need to have Vlasic take on top comp. I personally don't think that Merkley will see a lot of NHL ice time this year, let alone be the reason that Vlasic plays in a 3rd pairing role.

It's going to be either Middleton or Merkley, and I don't think that the staff thinks Merkley is going to need a lot of time before they call him up.

 

[Mattb124]

I think the idea with Vlasic-Merkley third pair is that you can just roll your pairings. Give each pairing around equal time and move players around as needed (if we need more shut down pair, move Vlasic with honestly any of the other D. If we need more offense put Burns/EK out there together, etc.)

The Sharks have almost 20% of their cap tied up in EK65 and Burns who averaged a combined ~50 minutes/game last season (Vlasic was 3rd in TOI). Do you think it is reasonable to expect the Sharks coaches will try to manage down their time on ice or structure their D around the 3rd pairing RHD who may play 10-12 minutes/game? I don't, especially when that is based on the assumption Merkley will make the team out of camp this year which I don't think is a fair assumption.

 

[DG93]

That idea would be great especially for a condensed schedule but given the talent level on the Sharks, I just don't expect that to happen. The balanced strategy has to be followed with positive results for it to continue. Otherwise, coaches gonna coach and that means relying on their guys and hope for the best. Since we're a fringe playoff team at best, they need a fast start for this to work and hope they don't run out of gas or take on too many injuries/illnesses and considering what's going on in the world, I just don't have confidence in that happening.

If someone internally can lay claim to the 6th spot that's worth being confident in and Ferraro takes another step and becomes a top four caliber d-man, I'd be happy with the season, at least on defense, even if it ends poorly. To me, the defense would become more balanced if Ferraro gets to that 2nd pairing level and becomes more of a producer. Then we can shop Burns, hope that Merkley is either established already as an NHL'er or may do so after a year in the AHL. Either way, I'd like more puck-moving presence and offensive instincts from the left side. It's been lacking for pretty much a decade. Ehrhoff was the last real offensive presence blue liner from the left side. Ferraro could and should be better but time will tell.

Yep, this. Vlasic isn't a top-4 defenseman anymore. If one of Burns or EK65 carries him, they make his numbers look respectable, but in reality, he drags them down. If this team has any chance of making the playoffs, it has to be behind those two guys since our middle-6 up front is awful. Since that is the case, Vlasic should be on the 3rd pairing with heavy PK minutes since that's where he's most useful both in terms of his own performance and the impact he has on two of our three most important players.

 

[Gecklund]

The Sharks have almost 20% of their cap tied up in EK65 and Burns who averaged a combined ~50 minutes/game last season (Vlasic was 3rd in TOI). Do you think it is reasonable to expect the Sharks coaches will try to manage down their time on ice or structure their D around the 3rd pairing RHD who may play 10-12 minutes/game? I don't, especially when that is based on the assumption Merkley will make the team out of camp this year which I don't think is a fair assumption.

Yes I think it is considering how compact this schedule is. They got that much tied up in them, best to keep them fresh for the playoffs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yes I think it is considering how compact this schedule is. They got that much tied up in them, best to keep them fresh for the playoffs.

Either way, a lot is going to have to go right for them to carve out that 4th and final playoff spot in the division. They are certainly comparable to the other non-top-three teams but between COVID, injuries, hoping at least one bad goalie turns it around, and also hoping that depth up front materializes and blue line depth also materializes is a lot to all go right enough to make it there. I still think Arizona, Anaheim, and Minnesota can all be better than us under the right circumstances. They have talent in their lineup...maybe a better balance than us in some areas. Better goaltending going into this season almost for sure.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Either way, a lot is going to have to go right for them to carve out that 4th and final playoff spot in the division. They are certainly comparable to the other non-top-three teams but between COVID, injuries, hoping at least one bad goalie turns it around, and also hoping that depth up front materializes and blue line depth also materializes is a lot to all go right enough to make it there. I still think Arizona, Anaheim, and Minnesota can all be better than us under the right circumstances. They have talent in their lineup...maybe a better balance than us in some areas. Better goaltending going into this season almost for sure.

Unless the team just has that cup run chemistry and are better than the individual parts, I’d rather miss the playoffs instead of squeaking in and getting pummeled in the first round. At least we have a chance at the lottery then.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

If PLD is actually available, DW better be all over that.

 

[Gecklund]

Either way, a lot is going to have to go right for them to carve out that 4th and final playoff spot in the division. They are certainly comparable to the other non-top-three teams but between COVID, injuries, hoping at least one bad goalie turns it around, and also hoping that depth up front materializes and blue line depth also materializes is a lot to all go right enough to make it there. I still think Arizona, Anaheim, and Minnesota can all be better than us under the right circumstances. They have talent in their lineup...maybe a better balance than us in some areas. Better goaltending going into this season almost for sure.

Oh I agree a lot is going to have to go right for us to make the playoffs, but it’s going to be that way no matter how we set our defense up based on how bad our forwards are. So my thought is get your only elite prospect some time (obviously if he’s not ready then don’t but if he’s ready) and let him learn from two of the best offensive D of their generation and shelter him with a good defensive D. Now if he’s not ready that’s something else entirely and I’m not saying he is and never have. Yes all three of those teams could be better than us but we could also be better than STL COL and VGK if everything goes right. Obvious long shot but say Merkley has a Makar impact and Vlasic somehow turns it around and Jones becomes the goalie that we traded for and Krug/Hoffman can’t make up for Petro/Tarasenko being gone/out and the young guys on COL regress and VGK has the PDB effect. This season is such a weird one and so I say spread the depth on D, roll both goalies (or whoever is hot), and hope our forwards step up.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh I agree a lot is going to have to go right for us to make the playoffs, but it’s going to be that way no matter how we set our defense up based on how bad our forwards are. So my thought is get your only elite prospect some time (obviously if he’s not ready then don’t but if he’s ready) and let him learn from two of the best offensive D of their generation and shelter him with a good defensive D. Now if he’s not ready that’s something else entirely and I’m not saying he is and never have. Yes all three of those teams could be better than us but we could also be better than STL COL and VGK if everything goes right. Obvious long shot but say Merkley has a Makar impact and Vlasic somehow turns it around and Jones becomes the goalie that we traded for and Krug/Hoffman can’t make up for Petro/Tarasenko being gone/out and the young guys on COL regress and VGK has the PDB effect. This season is such a weird one and so I say spread the depth on D, roll both goalies (or whoever is hot), and hope our forwards step up.

I expect whoever performs the best will get the spot. If everything from before is accurate with regards to training camps, I expect Merkley to be in the starting lineup on the 3rd pairing. They were singing his praises both times. I really only see Pasichnuk as an alternative to that. Given the circumstances, I think all of Middleton, Merkley, and Pasichnuk will be on the team or at worst the taxi squad until AHL camp opens which I suspect would be about two weeks prior to their February 5 starting date so there will at least be a week where all of them will stick around and figure it out.

I more or less agree with how you'd approach the season. I think it's probably the only real thing you can do. I just expect it to go south and I'm really only looking for player development from younger guys this season and hope the COVID stuff doesn't hit them much or at all. Like I said, if guys like Merkley and Leonard can make the team and any of the guys like Ferraro and Gregor who played some can solidify a more important role in the lineup, I'll be happy with where the team is going. They need these kids to fill out the lineup and get better to increase their odds of contending moving forward and the sooner the better obviously.

 

[Mattb124]

Yes I think it is considering how compact this schedule is. They got that much tied up in them, best to keep them fresh for the playoffs.

Time will tell, but I don't see the team making the PO's with their minutes being limited.