WJC: 2019 WJC U20 D1A in Füssen, Germany (9/12 - 15/12 2018)
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Belarus has 13 players in the CHL, but I'm not sure if they gonna be able to participate. I don't think that 16-1 Prince Albert would allow their top players Protas and Sapego to leave the team for a few weeks. But even without those guys they gonna be top contenders at the WJHC, they have a few guys in the KHL and their u-20 team is playing in the national championship against men. Anyway that's pretty impressive how many decent players are coming from that country recently.
We're definitely not the favorite, but I think we have a shot at Belarus IFF (if and only if) we have our best roster there.
Power Rankings I believe something like
Belarus
Austria
Germany
Latvia
Norway
France
Power Rankings I believe something like
Belarus
Austria
Germany
Latvia
Norway
France
Speaking of the Belarus defense I'd have mentioned a couple guys from the USHL.
Artyom Borshyov at eliteprospects.com He was a captain for the U-18 team that finished top-8 in the world this year.
Dmitri Deryabin at eliteprospects.com The guy has already played at two U-20 WJC and has a few KHL games under his belt. He sohuld definitely get invited for his 3rd WJC.
Then you can add CHL players: Sapego (a top-pairing defenseman for the best WHL team who scores at a point-per-game pace), Yeryomenko, Kolyachenok (a B prospect for the 2019 NHL draft), Palivko (who is still 16 though, he just came to the WHL and earned a permanent spot on the Lethbridge Hurricanes roster), Zuyev (plays for Mississauga in the OHL)...
Belarus can ice a whole defense from the two best North American leagues (CHL/USHL) and they still have guys like Shkrabov, Gabrus and Savritsky playing in their national league. They can also add 7 forwards from the WHL on offense plus Sushko.
I don't think anyone could compete with them if all those guys are available.
So how the CHL/USHL drafts work is that they are completely agent based, which means they are susceptible to what we'll call "trends". Arbitrarily we'll see a large contingent from one country or another. Right now the Belorussian trend is in, and deservedly so. But there are no CHL scouts in Europe. These players don't "try out". They sometimes have to compete for a roster spot in the sense that occasionally the team will have rights to 3 euros, but only 2 are allowed on the roster at any given time.
Also, the CHL/USHL are junior leagues. The best junior leagues in the world, but still, junior leagues. Many players on opposing sides are already playing senior hockey, in senior hockey leagues with legios who formerly played in and dominated the CHL. Now I hate how far some Euros will take this. Some Euros will say "so and so from my local league is better than so and so from the CHL...junior league yada yada...senior league yada yada." Some National team coaches will say straight up, "I don't want my kids in the CHL because it's a junior league when they could play senior here." Some coaches are less likely to pick CHL/USHL kids than domestic kids. I think that's narrow minded. Often times a good CHL/USHL team will be as good as most tier 2 senior teams, and a lot of times it's simply better for a player's development to be playing junior hockey where they can get good minutes than checking line roles on a tier 1 team.
But what I'm getting at is that these USHL/CHL players, they're not untouchable. Again, they are generally better, though some Euros will contest this. I'm not an NA-skeptic. Statistically, CHL/USHL players do tend to do better than Euro based players in this tournament. But simply icing a team almost exclusively from NA doesn't make you head and shoulders above the other teams. Belarus routinely leaves CHL/USHL kids behind, they probably will this year too. In all likelihood, both Germany and Austria will also leave CHL/USHL based kids behind this year as well.
Going player by player. Deryabin will make the squad. He was strong last year for them, especially against Sweden. Borshyov, probably a long shot. Sapego, yes. Yeryomenko, yes. Kolyachonok, probably. Pavliko and Zuyev are longer shots. Their domestic U20 team is good, but they took OT to beat an Austrian team missing about 10 players (the best players) which had just assembled two days before. Sushko will be big for them. Ivan Drozdov will be big for them.
Are they tournament favorites? Absolutely. No question. They're big and they're fast. Austria is tiny and fast. Germany is big and slow. Latvia is big but not as big and fast but not as fast. But between Austria, Germany, and Latvia at least one team will give them a good run. Germany got relegated and people figured they would be right back up. That was four years ago. Last year they were the overwhelming favorites and somehow Kazakhstan is playing at the Elite WJC this year. There's more parity in these teams than some would suppose, and in a 5 game tournament anything can happen.
Germany should have a strong, but also somewhat young team this year.
There will likely be several players on this team born in 2000, 2001 and even 2002.
So I expect them to be competitive, but they are certainly not favourites.
I am really looking forward to see what guys like Bokk, Seider and Stützle can do, if they can all play.
I was planning of going to at least one game, but unfortunately work and other commitments will make that impossible.
There will likely be several players on this team born in 2000, 2001 and even 2002.
So I expect them to be competitive, but they are certainly not favourites.
I am really looking forward to see what guys like Bokk, Seider and Stützle can do, if they can all play.
I was planning of going to at least one game, but unfortunately work and other commitments will make that impossible.
Are you sure?
You say that, but Germany is notorious for it's stubborn refusal to ice younger teams with better players. Do you think they'll really go with the youth this year or just revert back and pick a bunch of 99 born kids?
It will be very interesting to see what's the composition of team Latvia. In my opinion -99 and -00 are one of the weakest age groups of Latvian prospects so they will have to ice a good amount of underagers like Polcs, Ošenieks and maybe even 16-year-old Raivis Kristians Ansons. Btw, he's the one to watch in MHL next season.
I know there are players like Smirnovs or Ģēģeris and Bērziņš with KHL experience but offensively they don't have much to offer. There are no world class talents like Balcers or Ābols.
I'll be happily surprised if Latvia promotes this year.
I know there are players like Smirnovs or Ģēģeris and Bērziņš with KHL experience but offensively they don't have much to offer. There are no world class talents like Balcers or Ābols.
I'll be happily surprised if Latvia promotes this year.
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I think Bokk and Seider are a given if they are available. Stützle should be there too, since he is playing in a league with most of the 99 born kids and is dominating them. The 99 year is a pretty bad one for Germany so it is more likely that we see more younger players than usual.
Other candidates would be Justin Schütz, if he gets healthy in time, Taro Jentzsch and Alexander Dersch who are playing really well in the QMJHL, Dennis Lobach who is seeing some time in the DEL and Yannik Valenti. There are several more, like John Jason Peterka, but their chances are very slim.
Will all of them be on the team? Probably not, but the talent gap between the 99ers and the 00 born players is pretty significant.
I hope the willingness of Marco Sturm to give younger players a shot, has rubbed off a little on the other coaches in the system, because, as you say, in the past they have often left off more talented younger players for more experienced older players.
So it is really more hope on my part, but I think the chances are better than usual.
ozo
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- Feb 24, 2010
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Shocking amount of quality posts in this thread, had to re-check that I'm actually on HFBoards. 
If Belarus brings their best roster and goalies doesn't crap the bed yet again they should sweep this year. Still have nightmares of the relegation games last year.
As far as Latvia is concerned, I think this is the first year in ages when we are more likely to get relegated than go up. None of the kids look really promising in my eyes, but I hope I will be proven wrong and we will have a great tournament.
What have I missed about Austria, Kabidjan? Is the quality improvement from last year that big that you rank them that highly? How have the exhibition games looked?
If Belarus brings their best roster and goalies doesn't crap the bed yet again they should sweep this year. Still have nightmares of the relegation games last year. As far as Latvia is concerned, I think this is the first year in ages when we are more likely to get relegated than go up. None of the kids look really promising in my eyes, but I hope I will be proven wrong and we will have a great tournament.
What have I missed about Austria, Kabidjan? Is the quality improvement from last year that big that you rank them that highly? How have the exhibition games looked?
filip85
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- Feb 7, 2017
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Who will replace him ?
With him German NT made nice progression, I really hope they don't fall into medicory after him :/
https://www.flashscore.com/match/MsP7qWt2/#match-summaryShocking amount of quality posts in this thread, had to re-check that I'm actually on HFBoards.
As far as Latvia is concerned, I think this is the first year in ages when we are more likely to get relegated than go up. None of the kids look really promising in my eyes, but I hope I will be proven wrong and we will have a great tournament.
What have I missed about Austria, Kabidjan? Is the quality improvement from last year that big that you rank them that highly? How have the exhibition games looked?
You say that this Latvia U20 team is not good, but I just noticed this scoresheet. I heard that Belarus has a few talented players born in 2002, they brought a few kids back to Belarus from Russia (Chezganov, Pinchuk and Suvorov who scored a few points in that game all played in Russian leagues recently), but 8:1... Belarus U17 destroyed both Latvia and Kazakhstan by combined score of 14:3 at the tournament. What was that? Latvia brought a weak team, that was accidental or the gap between Latvia and Belarus is gonna be that big in a few years?
There is a decent chance that they go with an interim coach, if they can't find a permanent solution they are really happy with.
They are definitely looking for someone who speaks German, at least they have said as much.
Other than that I haven't heard or read anything yet.
ozo
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- Feb 24, 2010
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The results might be a bit extreme, but Belarus finally rightfully is ahead us in youth department knowing how much resources have been put into system in last two decades. They have plenty interesting prospects in every birth year now going forward.
Well our best generation is reaching the age of maturity. The names you know well enough, Benjamin Baumgartner, Marco Rossi, Julian Payr, David Maier, Thimo Nickl.
The exhibition games looked amazing. The Vojens tournament needs to be understood in the fact that we were missing up to 10 of our best players due to various reasons. There were players on the squad who regulars on the squad had never even heard of. There were players who no one thought merited a selection. The morning of the Latvia game, I texted one of the players something to the effect of "do your best, but I think they're going to smash you." Not that the individual player was bad, he was good, but I figured the rest of the squad would not be able to keep up. Latvia was missing a handful of players, but not what I would consider game-changers, they had the vast majority of their planned squad. And then I sat back in shock as the team took Latvia down to the wire, needed a last minute PP goal to win the game.
Well, I figured that was an outlier. And it wasn't a particularly close game anywhere except on the scorecard, shots were 22-7. So I thought perhaps there would be a correction to the mean by a drubbing from Belarus. Belarus was missing, of course, all of its NA players, but still had what most would consider a strong contingent and as they play together in club, you'd figure they'd have the chemistry advantage as well. Wrong again, this time they took Belarus to OT before losing.
The Denmark game was the closest to what I would have expected, outcome-wise. Denmark's golden generation is over. Gone are most of their best players, left are really only Malte Setkov and Jonas Rondbjerg. But the squad we faced was really only missing Jeppe Urup Mogensen and Phillip Schultz. We lost respectably. 4-2.
I'm afraid the injury bug might bite us. That will greatly affect where we are able to end up along the final rankings. I'm also afraid the coaching staff will look at some of the players in Vojens and think "hmmm...." because those games, close on the scoreboard, were not close in reality, we were outshot 90-55. It would greatly decrease our chances of being competitive if both Paul Huber and Max Rebernig were left behind just for being big because they are 1-2 our best forechecking and battling forwards, and are better (especially Huber) at passing and moving the puck than all but a handful of guys who were in Vojens. That situation should never have been because they are indisputably better than most the squad present (look at the stats if you don't believe me), but I'm afraid it's becoming a game of egos now. But we should definitely have Marcel Zitz, Fabio Artner, and Tim Luca Harnish back unless the injury bug bites.
Part of my rank is of course, partisan optimism, but everybody think we're going to be better this year, the question is how much better. The coaching staff want to "avoid relegation as fast as possible", which is just a continuation of the bothersome trend of setting low expectations and being unreasonably excited when low expectations are met. The players range from wanting "a top three finish" to "do our best and hopefully a promotion" to "promotion is the goal." But Latvia is looking blue this year and we traditionally have an advantage against Germany. If we can start the tournament fast, anything is possible.
Belorussian players mature earlier...than almost any other nation in the mid-majors. But one of Belarus and Latvia plays in the Elite WC, one plays in the D1A.
BalticWarrior
Registered User
ozo
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As do ours sadly... But as it is with our hockey too, the more legit looking prospects they put out, the bigger the chance they will get a couple of solid senior players down the road just by sheer luck if not anything else.
Understood. For sure.
I personally think Lobach is a long shot because he seems to be more of a Red Bull Munich pet project. Not sure Taro is one of the Federation favorites, maybe. This is just a feeling of mine but usually the German Federation doesn't like CHL players, and Valenti in the points category is 6 in 17. JJ is 02 born. Schutz's health seems to be a longshot. Dersch I think will go.
But you're right, I think it would be best that they do take a young team. We will see if Sturm did shake things up permanently.
BalticWarrior
Registered User
quality of the posts in this thread is going down to dumpster now.
Where you've been hearing "this ****" for years? Who all those Belarusian prospects that busted? During the period 2009-2016 Belarus has had only 2 players total drafted : Gavrus (6th round) and Gotovets (7th round). In fact they had no one to bust. Just like Latvia won't have anyone in foreseeable future: no one was drafted over the last 3 years (I don't count that 20 y.o. overager picked in the 7th round 3 years ago). Belarus on the other hand has 3 draft eligible players who score a point-per-game in the CHL, two of them are rookies who just turned 17.
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Framing is important. 2009-2015 and yes, only two draftees. 2008-2016 and there are 4 draftees. Stefanovich (4th, 2008) and and Falkovsky (7th, 2016). You may wish to suspend judgment on Falkovsky, but he's almost 22 and is not particularly spectacular in the ECHL. In any case, he was with the National Team squad that got relegated this spring...
But that presumes another claim which I don't think we would want to make, which is that "only NHL drafted prospects can be considered 'prospects' for the purposes of the national team" or "prospects worth being disappointed over." I don't think this claim is apparently true at all, there were certainly hopes over athletes such as Dmitri Ambrozheichik, Danila Karaban, Stanislav Lopachuk, and so forth. Most NHL draft picks do not make the NHL. That means any National Team which wishes to develop a strong player pool must not only cross its fingers that a handful of its players do make the NHL, but also develop a strong system for players who fall back to continue to develop and become stronger players.
ozo
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You are not wrong, but us24 rightfully pointed out that there simply is more talant (that could dissapoint us) than ever before.
That said I have been excited about tiny Ambrozheichik or Buinitsky, but, Stefanovich light years ago aside, they really never did much outside Belarus or one particular international tournament.So over the 8 years Belarus had only one player drafted higher than 6th round. Stefanovich 10 years ago. I've never heard anyone saying that players you've mentioned should be any good. Including Falkovsky. Your expectations are your problems. I'm sure none of them had a personal thread over here on the prospects board and was praised like Protas and Kolyachenok.
Evidently having an HF thread makes you a serious prospect now. Falkovsky has an 83 post thread, and then multiple other prospect threads and transaction threads full of praise. That didn't make him a meaningful prospect. Protas has one 6 reply thread and one person replied half of those replies, one was a comment about his name. Does that make him an even less meaningful prospect? I think clearly HFboards threads aren't a meaningful measure... Those four athletes including Falkovsky, were drafted, and there is no guarantee the two you just mentioned will be drafted.
But you're still missing the fundamental point. Of all the kids who are drafted, it's likely none of them will play a large amount of time in the NHL, if at all. So it's important to build a strong European contingent, because you're not going to have a sizable NHL contingent. You simply aren't. And if there isn't a system in place to develop prospects like the players I mentioned, doesn't matter what these kids look like at 17.
There is more talent, least in part because there's more traffic to NA. But if these prospects come home and there's no room for them in Minsk, they could be even more talented and Baltic Warrior would still be right.You are not wrong, but us24 rightfully pointed out that there simply is more talant (that could dissapoint us) than ever before.
