GDT: 2019 Trade Deadline: Part Two/ The Wrath of Holland

[Hammettf2b]

First, There is no reason to think Nyquist wouldn't be a contributing player until at least 35. He is smart, a good skater and hasn't had any injuries. Calling him irrelevant at 33 is a baseless claim.

Second, Nyquist was very good in the 2013 playoffs. He was also very good for the Griffin's calder cup run. This narrative that nyquist disappears is completely overblown. It kind of reminds me of when Datsyuk had the same tag.

I get what you're saying, but I'm glad Holland didn't bust out another Abby contract for Nyquist based on this years performance. He realized this year is not the norm production wise and didn't shell out the contract.

 

[SirloinUB]

I get what you're saying, but I'm glad Holland didn't bust out another Abby contract for Nyquist based on this years performance. He realized this year is not the norm production wise and didn't shell out the contract.

I don't think comparing Nyquist to Abby is very fair to Nyquist.

I also think there would be some room to negotiate on the contract. I could live with something like 5.2 x 4 years or 5 x 5.

 

[Hammettf2b]

I don't think comparing Nyquist to Abby is very fair to Nyquist.

I also think there would be some room to negotiate on the contract. I could live with something like 5.2 x 4 years or 5 x 5.

Don't get me wrong, I like Nyquist, I just think he is very replaceable

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

No. It is a choice between retaining a good NHL player or taking picks that, maybe, one day, might be as good if we're real lucky.

It is literally the mystery box situation from family guy.

But to rebuild through the draft you have to take that risk. The more picks you have the greater the chance at striking paydirt. To get quality picks you have to move on from assets that have value to other teams. So you weigh out a players value to the club VS the futures they could bring in. In this case a 2nd & 3rd is what it is. Not the best return we could hope for but looking at the market it wasn't horrid.

If in 3 years the Wings are making the playoffs and still have prospects in the pipeline looking good, it will be because of moves like this. Moves that add futures for assets that wont be the make or break factor of the team.

 

[Henkka]

minnesota needs to rebuild because this core obviously is not and will not work, but the problem is suter and parise. nobody is ever stepping near those deals

Maybe both will have something like "skin disorder" and will be on LTIR.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Solid trade deadline. The return wasn't particularly inspiring, but it's enough to potentially make some interesting moves at the draft. The real value here was the Wings making a winning set of moves in the reverse trade deadline, as the lowest teams in the standings compete to see who can be the worst over the next 20 games. The Wings probably knew that if they're going to make this basement year count for something, they need to draft very high. Not just 6th high. This is an attempt to do that, IMO. Nobody is going to catch Ottawa, but it's important to stay in the picture.

A big positive is that Holland identified the proper course of action and took it, even though it runs counter to his stated objective of making the playoffs next year. Or does it? I think Kenny is going to try to spend his face off in July, so maybe nothing has really changed there. But I think he's going to find one thing has changed drastically: high end players' desire to come here. I guess we'll see.

 

[CaptainZetterberg40]

I think the deadline turned out as best it could considering all the circumstances. Would have loved to move Howard, but as we can tell, the market wasn't there which is fine and it's not the end of the world. What I'm focusing on now is how the top 6 and youth fares and develops without Nyquist. Internally, this has to be marketed toward our young players as this being the best time to take the bull by the horns which I feel is very important. A very good window of evaluation (which is a reason they're trying AA at Center again). One way to look at trading away Nyquist is that it gives more money to play with for upcoming free agents (be it 2019 UFA's or 2020+) and an opportunity at a higher ceiling player. Of course Nyquist can come back, but I'll cross that bridge when the time comes and the ink is dry. But for now we are going in the right direction and right now that is all we can ask for. Now it's all about execution for the players and management to hit their desired goals.

The remaining vets we have in Helm, Nielsen, Abdelkader, Daley, Ericsson and Dekeyser will all be phased out over time during either their contract expiring years or the year before so I'm not really worried about them much. With each passing day we're closer to their departure more than anything and I don't they will hinder any kids progress in a long term view. I think the most harm they will have comes when a UFA looks at our roster on paper and maybe deter them. But such is life.

This is the general lineup I'm hoping for in the coming years. Good mix between high dollar quality UFA's and young cost controlled kids. Slotting not set in stone, but rather adapted over time. There are more variations depending on draft(s) (could draft center or D), but I like the thought of drafting to strengthen our weak D the more I think about it. Of course it must be said that this lineup is built upon the premise that all players hit their development marks, and if there is anything time has taught us is that not all players make it. But hey, gotta have somewhat of a positive outlook right?

Free Agent (Panarin, Duchene?/Backstrom??) Larkin Bertuzzi/Mantha
Mantha/Bertuzzi Veleno Zadina
Athanasiou Rasmussen Svechnikov
DLR Glendenning Ehn

Bottom 4 D pairings I have solely based on skill mixed with physicality but like i said, are not set in stone and subject to change as we see who is who. Hronek could be paired with Cholo and Bowey + McIsaac could be a hard pair to play against that wears others down.

Free Agent (Karlsson/Pietrangelo/Josi) Byram
Hronek McIsaac
Bowey/Lindstrom Cholowski
Lindstrom/Bowey

I haven't even taken expansion draft loss into consideration, but I can't predict the future lol.

Two questions I have are
1. Does there necessarily need to be a lockout in order to receive compliance buyouts?
2. When/what season does Trouba reach UFA status?

 

[Hammettf2b]

I think the deadline turned out as best it could considering all the circumstances. Would have loved to move Howard, but as we can tell, the market wasn't there which is fine and it's not the end of the world. What I'm focusing on now is how the top 6 and youth fares and develops without Nyquist. Internally, this has to be marketed toward our young players as this being the best time to take the bull by the horns which I feel is very important. A very good window of evaluation (which is a reason they're trying AA at Center again). One way to look at trading away Nyquist is that it gives more money to play with for upcoming free agents (be it 2019 UFA's or 2020+) and an opportunity at a higher ceiling player. Of course Nyquist can come back, but I'll cross that bridge when the time comes and the ink is dry. But for now we are going in the right direction and right now that is all we can ask for. Now it's all about execution for the players and management to hit their desired goals.

The remaining vets we have in Helm, Nielsen, Abdelkader, Daley, Ericsson and Dekeyser will all be phased out over time during either their contract expiring years or the year before so I'm not really worried about them much. With each passing day we're closer to their departure more than anything and I don't they will hinder any kids progress in a long term view. I think the most harm they will have comes when a UFA looks at our roster on paper and maybe deter them. But such is life.

This is the general lineup I'm hoping for in the coming years. Good mix between high dollar quality UFA's and young cost controlled kids. Slotting not set in stone, but rather adapted over time. There are more variations depending on draft(s) (could draft center or D), but I like the thought of drafting to strengthen our weak D the more I think about it. Of course it must be said that this lineup is built upon the premise that all players hit their development marks, and if there is anything time has taught us is that not all players make it. But hey, gotta have somewhat of a positive outlook right?

Free Agent (Panarin, Duchene?/Backstrom??) Larkin Bertuzzi/Mantha
Mantha/Bertuzzi Veleno Zadina
Athanasiou Rasmussen Svechnikov
DLR Glendenning Ehn

Bottom 4 D pairings I have solely based on skill mixed with physicality but like i said, are not set in stone and subject to change as we see who is who. Hronek could be paired with Cholo and Bowey + McIsaac could be a hard pair to play against that wears others down.

Free Agent (Karlsson/Pietrangelo/Josi) Byram
Hronek McIsaac
Bowey/Lindstrom Cholowski
Lindstrom/Bowey

I haven't even taken expansion draft loss into consideration, but I can't predict the future lol.

Two questions I have are
1. Does there necessarily need to be a lockout in order to receive compliance buyouts?
2. When/what season does Trouba reach UFA status?

I think that had a lot to do with the salary cap being lowered and or not raised iirc?

 

[Shaman464]

No. It is a choice between retaining a good NHL player or taking picks that, maybe, one day, might be as good if we're real lucky.

It is literally the mystery box situation from family guy.

Vanek isn't a good NHL player at this point, he's just above replacement level. His offense is no longer good enough to overshadow how one dimensional he is. I've watched almost every game this year, and there are stretches that I forgot he was even on the team.

 

[jkutswings]

No. It is a choice between retaining a good NHL player or taking picks that, maybe, one day, might be as good if we're real lucky.

It is literally the mystery box situation from family guy.

Not at all. Gustav Nyquist is in a position where Detroit should not want to bring him back.

When you go from being a career 2nd liner from a production standpoint, to shattering your best numbers in a contract year - while approaching your 30th birthday - odds are you are looking at your last chance at a final major payday of a deal. Something along the lines of $36M over 6 years.

And odds are also favorable that your performance over those 6 years won't be worth your price tag.

So in reality, it's between:
1) Overpay yet another veteran;
2) Let him walk for nothing; or
3) Get a decent return for him, and look for a better way to spend that money.

I'm all in for #3.

Next year, the team will still be out of the playoffs, so losing Gus in the short term is irrelevant anyway. But certainly by 2020-21, the Manthas and AAs and Zadinas of the world - plus any trade/UFA acquisitions - should have continued to pick up some to all of the offensive slack from losing Nyquist, and in a more shrewd fashion relative to the cap going forward.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Maybe both will have something like "skin disorder" and will be on LTIR.

that would be best case scenario

 

[SirloinUB]

Vanek isn't a good NHL player at this point, he's just above replacement level. His offense is no longer good enough to overshadow how one dimensional he is. I've watched almost every game this year, and there are stretches that I forgot he was even on the team.

Good thing I was talking about Nyquist and not Vanek in the post you quoted.

Not at all. Gustav Nyquist is in a position where Detroit should not want to bring him back.

When you go from being a career 2nd liner from a production standpoint, to shattering your best numbers in a contract year - while approaching your 30th birthday - odds are you are looking at your last chance at a final major payday of a deal. Something along the lines of $36M over 6 years.

And odds are also favorable that your performance over those 6 years won't be worth your price tag.

So in reality, it's between:
1) Overpay yet another veteran;
2) Let him walk for nothing; or
3) Get a decent return for him, and look for a better way to spend that money.

I'm all in for #3.

I get you're not a fan of Holland but there is a 4th option here:

Negotiate a contract that is equitable for both sides. His ask was reported at 5.5 x 5 and I have to think there is some room to negotiate there.



Bottom line is I’m not convinced a pair of picks in the range of 60-90 will do more for the rebuild than Nyquist can. In fact the odds are that they won’t.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Some people just think we can have a 15m third line...lol

Nyquist isn't a third liner. So why on earth would him signing that make us have a 15M+ third line?

Or some people only watch the red wings so they overvalue our players. Nyquist is so easy to replace/get a better player if you are willing to spend 5.5x5!!!

Nyquist is a top 6 forward. 5.5M is reasonable for a top 6 forward. Maybe a bit heavy if you think he's only a 40 point winger, but I think he'd still have higher numbers next year even because Larkin is coming into his own as a distributor.

And is Nyquist really any different from the Loui Eriksson and Kyle Okposos of the world who got 6M under a low 70M cap? He's easily replaceable sure... but the guy you'd be replacing him with would likely be making about that same money. So what do I care if it goes into pot A (Nyquist's Swedish Bank) or pot B (Wayne Simmonds Savings and Loan)? 5.5M for a top 6 winger who will get you around 50 points is basically market value now.

Except its a choice between the mystery box or a guy who has no relevance on the team now, or in the future. This would be more like trading Larkin for a 18 year old center who was drafted in the 3rd hoping you'll get a franchise guy.

I don't understand your point. Gustav Nyquist was one of the few relevant pieces the Wings had this year and he's just turning 30 within the next calendar year, so by the time we would likely be looking to hit the iron (provided we win the lottery this year or next) would be within his five year contract window if he signed a 5x5.5 deal. Gustav Nyquist could very easily be an important piece (not a core piece, but you're not paying core pieces 5.5M in 2019 NHL money) by the time we expect to be good again.

Also, aren't the odds for even a 2nd rounder turning into literally an average NHL forward (i.e. not even a good one, like Justin Abdelkader level) somewhere around 20%? And for a 3rd even worse?

I understand dealing Nyquist because you're taking a shot that the guy is worth more that you get in the 2nd and 3rd... but it isn't the slam dunk that people want to paint it as. Nor should the Wings be looking at re-signing Nyquist as a disgusting proposition. He's a very solid hockey player. I'd be thrilled if they could re-up him for 5M and would even be okay with 5x5.5. If they could get a 2nd and 3rd and re-sign him, that would be best.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Nyquist isn't a third liner. So why on earth would him signing that make us have a 15M+ third line?



Nyquist is a top 6 forward. 5.5M is reasonable for a top 6 forward. Maybe a bit heavy if you think he's only a 40 point winger, but I think he'd still have higher numbers next year even because Larkin is coming into his own as a distributor.

And is Nyquist really any different from the Loui Eriksson and Kyle Okposos of the world who got 6M under a low 70M cap? He's easily replaceable sure... but the guy you'd be replacing him with would likely be making about that same money. So what do I care if it goes into pot A (Nyquist's Swedish Bank) or pot B (Wayne Simmonds Savings and Loan)? 5.5M for a top 6 winger who will get you around 50 points is basically market value now.




I don't understand your point. Gustav Nyquist was one of the few relevant pieces the Wings had this year and he's just turning 30 within the next calendar year, so by the time we would likely be looking to hit the iron (provided we win the lottery this year or next) would be within his five year contract window if he signed a 5x5.5 deal. Gustav Nyquist could very easily be an important piece (not a core piece, but you're not paying core pieces 5.5M in 2019 NHL money) by the time we expect to be good again.

Also, aren't the odds for even a 2nd rounder turning into literally an average NHL forward (i.e. not even a good one, like Justin Abdelkader level) somewhere around 20%? And for a 3rd even worse?

I understand dealing Nyquist because you're taking a shot that the guy is worth more that you get in the 2nd and 3rd... but it isn't the slam dunk that people want to paint it as. Nor should the Wings be looking at re-signing Nyquist as a disgusting proposition. He's a very solid hockey player. I'd be thrilled if they could re-up him for 5M and would even be okay with 5x5.5. If they could get a 2nd and 3rd and re-sign him, that would be best.

Nyquist is a top 6 forward on a non playoff team.

 

[jkutswings]

I get you're not a fan of Holland but there is a 4th option here:

Negotiate a contract that is equitable for both sides. His ask was reported at 5.5 x 5 and I have to think there is some room to negotiate there.

I very much support the vast majority of the moves Holland has made in the last two years. He was late to the party in my opinion, but "I'm actually rebuilding" Kenny has been phenomenal compared to "I'm keeping The Streak alive" Kenny.

But phenomenal or not, Nike would be a fool to take a hometown discount on the last big contract of his NHL career, especially if he makes it to July 1, with plenty of goofball GMs out there capable of making a dumb move to overpay a free agent.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Good thing I was talking about Nyquist and not Vanek in the post you quoted.



I get you're not a fan of Holland but there is a 4th option here:

Negotiate a contract that is equitable for both sides. His ask was reported at 5.5 x 5 and I have to think there is some room to negotiate there.



Bottom line is I’m not convinced a pair of picks in the range of 60-90 will do more for the rebuild than Nyquist can. In fact the odds are that they won’t.

Why can't Holland do that in July? And get the picks.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Nyquist is a top 6 forward on a non playoff team.

Serious question. Do a lot of teams have consistent 40+ point guys playing outside their top 6?

Because my inclination would be to think there aren't many.

 

[Shaman464]

Nyquist isn't a third liner. So why on earth would him signing that make us have a 15M+ third line?



Nyquist is a top 6 forward. 5.5M is reasonable for a top 6 forward. Maybe a bit heavy if you think he's only a 40 point winger, but I think he'd still have higher numbers next year even because Larkin is coming into his own as a distributor.

And is Nyquist really any different from the Loui Eriksson and Kyle Okposos of the world who got 6M under a low 70M cap? He's easily replaceable sure... but the guy you'd be replacing him with would likely be making about that same money. So what do I care if it goes into pot A (Nyquist's Swedish Bank) or pot B (Wayne Simmonds Savings and Loan)? 5.5M for a top 6 winger who will get you around 50 points is basically market value now.




I don't understand your point. Gustav Nyquist was one of the few relevant pieces the Wings had this year and he's just turning 30 within the next calendar year, so by the time we would likely be looking to hit the iron (provided we win the lottery this year or next) would be within his five year contract window if he signed a 5x5.5 deal. Gustav Nyquist could very easily be an important piece (not a core piece, but you're not paying core pieces 5.5M in 2019 NHL money) by the time we expect to be good again.

Also, aren't the odds for even a 2nd rounder turning into literally an average NHL forward (i.e. not even a good one, like Justin Abdelkader level) somewhere around 20%? And for a 3rd even worse?

I understand dealing Nyquist because you're taking a shot that the guy is worth more that you get in the 2nd and 3rd... but it isn't the slam dunk that people want to paint it as. Nor should the Wings be looking at re-signing Nyquist as a disgusting proposition. He's a very solid hockey player. I'd be thrilled if they could re-up him for 5M and would even be okay with 5x5.5. If they could get a 2nd and 3rd and re-sign him, that would be best.

I was talking about Vanek.

 

[Shaman464]

Serious question. Do a lot of teams have consistent 40+ point guys playing outside their top 6?

Because my inclination would be to think there aren't many.

Not many, but this year might be an exception too because of offensive boom.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I'm on my phone, so quoting is hard. But... did Ken Holland get abducted by aliens? What is even happening? This article is so unlike him. Have we broken Ken Holland?

Detroit Red Wings' Ken Holland talks trades; 'I'm preaching patience'

 

[DetroitRed]

Other deadline day developments: Ken will supposedly extend Blashill... Detroit Red Wings to extend Jeff Blashill's deal; what about Ken Holland?

The wrath of Ken indeed.

 

[SirloinUB]

I very much support the vast majority of the moves Holland has made in the last two years. He was late to the party in my opinion, but "I'm actually rebuilding" Kenny has been phenomenal compared to "I'm keeping The Streak alive" Kenny.

But phenomenal or not, Nike would be a fool to take a hometown discount on the last big contract of his NHL career, especially if he makes it to July 1, with plenty of goofball GMs out there capable of making a dumb move to overpay a free agent.

I’ve supported most of holland’s Rebuild moves as well; I’m not inherently against rebuilding moves but they have to make sense.

Trading a player like Jensen for a 2nd makes sense.
Trading Tatar for a 1st ++ makes sense.
Trading players like Ott or Smith for the best available deadline deal makes sense.

Trading a quality player like Nyquist for a pair of long shot picks is where he loses me. If there wasn’t a quality offer Id honestly rather see him signed. Teams don’t get better by trading away one of their top players for picks that will likely be immaterial a couple years from now.

Why can't Holland do that in July? And get the picks.

That’s nice in theory but rare and unlikely in reality. If Holland does get Nyquist on a good contract or an even better free agent I’ll give him props for a shrewd move. Until then I’ll call it’s an exodus of talent for a pair of scratch-n-wins.

 

[WingsDynasty20s]

Excuse a potentially dumb question, but by getting the "lower" of SJ and Florida's pick, does that mean the better one or worse one? Have heard picks being described as high/low both ways. Obviously Florida's pick will almost certainly be better, just not sure if that is concerned lower.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

That’s nice in theory but rare and unlikely in reality.

True, but you can't prove it wrong.

 

[Ezekial]

Excuse a potentially dumb question, but by getting the "lower" of SJ and Florida's pick, does that mean the better one or worse one? Have heard picks being described as high/low both ways. Obviously Florida's pick will almost certainly be better, just not sure if that is concerned lower.

In terms of draft boards #1 is the highest pick. Every subsequent pick is lower.