Speculation: 2019 Off-Season Thread - Part 3

[DistantThunderRep]

 

[T REX]

Berube gets 3 years...and he just won a cup. Meanwhile Cooper is gonna get a decade to fail here. Whacked.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

I don't know if I would give him 7 years though. 5 sure, but those last two kind of put me off for him. Also depending on the dollar value also, which I haven't read anywhere.

Puts him at 35 and assuming escalating salaries for similar players, by the end, he'll likely be rather affordable when it comes to % of cap taken. I don't blame you though, we're going to have a fascinating next ten years of salary cap jockeying.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Puts him at 35 and assuming escalating salaries for similar players, by the end, he'll likely be rather affordable when it comes to % of cap taken. I don't blame you though, we're going to have a fascinating next ten years of salary cap jockeying.

The main thread is speculating all he wants is 6.5 ish million. I'd be more than willing to give him 6 x 6. He would fit pretty well with us, and at 6, even in year 4, 5, and 6, he would be easily moved.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

The main thread is speculating all he wants is 6.5 ish million. I'd be more than willing to give him 6 x 6. He would fit pretty well with us, and at 6, even in year 4, 5, and 6, he would be easily moved.

At 6x6.5 i'm shocked there aren't a dozen teams lining up for him.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

At 6x6.5 i'm shocked there aren't a dozen teams lining up for him.

I know, I thought he was asking something like 7 x 7.5 or 8, but 6.5 is totally reasonable.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

I like where this is going DTR. Lets play with this idea.

Lee at 6.5 for, lets say, 5 seasons puts him at 24-25 UFA, which we'll only have two forwards signed at that point (Gourde, Kucherov). If you bring him in as a center you need to move some players around and potentially out of position, and you'll have to clear salary. I've tried to kick this idea around without doing that, but with Joseph and Cirelli needing contracts after next year and Cirelli putting up Killorn numbers already, it could get pricey fast. Do you keep Palat or Johnson? Volkov, Stephens, Raddysh, and ABB are all waiting in the wings and can pick up spot duty while slotting MJ or AC up a line. Johnson might fetch more as a center, but Palat is 300k more expensive.

Johnson might thrive more on wing and my gut also tells me that Lee with Joseph and someone else to do a little dirty work could be a great line, too.

 

[God King Fudge]

This is going to be such an interesting offseason for TB. I want to see us involved in a lot of discussions. Even if we miss on some players, I want to know they're out there working on guys.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I like where this is going DTR. Lets play with this idea.

Lee at 6.5 for, lets say, 5 seasons puts him at 24-25 UFA, which we'll only have two forwards signed at that point (Gourde, Kucherov). If you bring him in as a center you need to move some players around and potentially out of position, and you'll have to clear salary. I've tried to kick this idea around without doing that, but with Joseph and Cirelli needing contracts after next year and Cirelli putting up Killorn numbers already, it could get pricey fast. Do you keep Palat or Johnson? Volkov, Stephens, Raddysh, and ABB are all waiting in the wings and can pick up spot duty while slotting MJ or AC up a line. Johnson might fetch more as a center, but Palat is 300k more expensive.

Johnson might thrive more on wing and my gut also tells me that Lee with Joseph and someone else to do a little dirty work could be a great line, too.

Personally, if we could get Lee, I would want to try Lee with Killorn and Celery.

 

[God King Fudge]

I like where this is going DTR. Lets play with this idea.

Lee at 6.5 for, lets say, 5 seasons puts him at 24-25 UFA, which we'll only have two forwards signed at that point (Gourde, Kucherov). If you bring him in as a center you need to move some players around and potentially out of position, and you'll have to clear salary. I've tried to kick this idea around without doing that, but with Joseph and Cirelli needing contracts after next year and Cirelli putting up Killorn numbers already, it could get pricey fast. Do you keep Palat or Johnson? Volkov, Stephens, Raddysh, and ABB are all waiting in the wings and can pick up spot duty while slotting MJ or AC up a line. Johnson might fetch more as a center, but Palat is 300k more expensive.

Johnson might thrive more on wing and my gut also tells me that Lee with Joseph and someone else to do a little dirty work could be a great line, too.

I think Palat would have to be the odd man out. He just isn't what he once was. Don't know if it's because of injuries or just player decline, but TJ had a redeeming season in my eyes. Palat is actively getting worse.

I think I'd want to see Lee with Joseph and Gourde. Lee with the big body, Joseph with the crazy speed and a shooter. Would be a really versatile line.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Still need to likely have a contract go out/have money go out. Who goes?

 

[DFC]

I like where this is going DTR. Lets play with this idea.

Lee at 6.5 for, lets say, 5 seasons puts him at 24-25 UFA, which we'll only have two forwards signed at that point (Gourde, Kucherov). If you bring him in as a center you need to move some players around and potentially out of position, and you'll have to clear salary. I've tried to kick this idea around without doing that, but with Joseph and Cirelli needing contracts after next year and Cirelli putting up Killorn numbers already, it could get pricey fast. Do you keep Palat or Johnson? Volkov, Stephens, Raddysh, and ABB are all waiting in the wings and can pick up spot duty while slotting MJ or AC up a line. Johnson might fetch more as a center, but Palat is 300k more expensive.

Johnson might thrive more on wing and my gut also tells me that Lee with Joseph and someone else to do a little dirty work could be a great line, too.

I think Johnson is probably our most valuable piece of fringe core players, but also the toughest to move. The NTC hurts, and I also just don't like parting with 5v5 goals considering how few of them we can come up with in the playoffs. But he's a guy we could move for a decent return, I think, and that might be true for another year or two if he can hover around 50 points in a variety of roles.

I would rather move Palat, but I think teams with decent scouts would be wary of him unless he has a big season, quick.

Lee - Cirelli - Joseph?

I think some of the turnover might come with guys like Erne. If we sign any UFA this year, are we really going to bring him back? I think he'd still be worth a low 2nd or so, given his age, size, and untapped potential. I'd rather not give him much of a bump right now. I think there's better value in breaking another rookie in.

 

[God King Fudge]

Still need to likely have a contract go out/have money go out. Who goes?

If I'm the GM of TB, I'd look at moving the following, in order:

Callahan's contract
Palat
Gourde
Killorn
TJ

Gourde above Killorn just because of the incoming NTC. If they can move Callahan's contract somewhere, that gives them $16.5M in space. If you assume Point is going to take $8.5 of that, you're at $8M.

Lee gets 6.5x6? Or can TB work the whole tax angle and get him at a 5.5 deal? Leaves you 1.5? You probably have to make some tough decisions at that point. Do you play Rutta as a regular? Who takes that open spot on the top line wing? Lines 2-4 are pretty damn good, but that top line is going to suffer with Palat's non existent offense and maybe a rookie or a guy playing above his head.

Palat-Stamkos-??
TJ-Point-Kuch
Gourde-Lee-Joseph
Killorn-Cirelli-Paquette

Hedman-Serge
McD-Cernak
Coburn-Rutta

Vasy
Domingue

 

[DFC]

This is going to be such an interesting offseason for TB. I want to see us involved in a lot of discussions. Even if we miss on some players, I want to know they're out there working on guys.

If there's any truth to us talking to Pavelski, I don't see how we're not kicking tires on a lot of other players. This Lee news just came out. I don't see how that didn't make JBB do a double take.

If we can find money for Pavelski, to me, that says we're not standing pat even if we don't get him.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Still need to likely have a contract go out/have money go out. Who goes?

Wouldnt the most likely players to go be either Gourde (NTC kicks in on July 1st) or Callahan's contract? If I had to guess, we just send out Cally's contract. Shouldnt be too hard to do.

 

[DFC]

Still need to likely have a contract go out/have money go out. Who goes?

To me, it's Gourde. He would have solid value around the league (slightly more than Miller?) but in the last two seasons I think his size has been a big obstacle in the playoffs. It's not JUST his size, but his size mixed with his style of play. He's not a north-south shooter, where size isn't as big an issue. He's a net front presence, and a corner guy. In the playoffs, those are the two areas that get about 10x more intense, and all the effort and energy in the world isn't going to make him 6 feet tall, 200 lbs.

 

[CupsOverCash]

This is going to be such an interesting offseason for TB. I want to see us involved in a lot of discussions. Even if we miss on some players, I want to know they're out there working on guys.

I dont see us standing pat. Not after getting swept. I think the Miller deal clinched that for me. Its just a matter of when we make that upgrade. Could be in UFA (if we get Point done) or it will be done via trade later. Which wouldnt be surprising either if we just did that either way as we have preferred trades to UFA in the past.

 

[DFC]

Wouldnt the most likely players to go be either Gourde (NTC kicks in on July 1st) or Callahan's contract? If I had to guess, we just send out Cally's contract. Shouldnt be too hard to do.

Honestly, I think we should at least be considering both. We've acquired a potentially high pick from Vancouver. That affords us an opportunity to move our own, if we have to, to get Cally off the books wholesale.

 

[God King Fudge]

Honestly, I think we should at least be considering both. We've acquired a potentially high pick from Vancouver. That affords us an opportunity to move our own, if we have to, to get Cally off the books wholesale.

What I like best about the Vancouver pick is that it's almost a guarantee to be better than ours with the very real potential to be a lottery pick.

I think we can get Callahan out the door for cheaper than a first, but yeah, it does give us that flexibility. We're definitely not opposed to moving first rounders.

I have a pipe dream of being able to move Callahan and Gourde to a team with a ton of cap space. A team takes on a lot of salary, but half of it drops off after the season and they also get a guy that's probably going to be a consistent 20+ goal scorer for the length of his deal.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Honestly, I think we should at least be considering both. We've acquired a potentially high pick from Vancouver. That affords us an opportunity to move our own, if we have to, to get Cally off the books wholesale.

I dont know if it costs us a first to get rid of Callahan's contract. I would have said yes before we made plan to put him on LTIR. Some other team could do that now and get the same cap benefits from it too. Would most likely have to be a cap floor team but I think a team would take a free asset to do that I would think. I just dont know if it would take a a first to do it.

 

[DFC]

What I like best about the Vancouver pick is that it's almost a guarantee to be better than ours with the very real potential to be a lottery pick.

I think we can get Callahan out the door for cheaper than a first, but yeah, it does give us that flexibility. We're definitely not opposed to moving first rounders.

I don't know. I think the cost would be similar to Marleau's. Callahan's contract is even bigger negative value, but only for a year.

 

[God King Fudge]

I don't know. I think the cost would be similar to Marleau's. Callahan's contract is even bigger negative value, but only for a year.

I think the thing with Marleau though is the multiple years AND the fact that Carolina knows he wants to play in SJ. They picked up Marleau pretty much knowing they were going to have to buy him out. So not only were they eating the cap hit for multiple years, they're going to have to buy him out as well.

With Callahan, you're carrying that cap for one season and you're done.

 

[DFC]

I think the thing with Marleau though is the multiple years AND the fact that Carolina knows he wants to play in SJ. They picked up Marleau pretty much knowing they were going to have to buy him out. So not only were they eating the cap hit for multiple years, they're going to have to buy him out as well.

With Callahan, you're carrying that cap for one season and you're done.

What was the price on Datsyuk? I can't think if a close comparable.

 

[LightningStrikes]

Still need to likely have a contract go out/have money go out. Who goes?

Considering performance and role it has to be Palat. His NTC could be a problem though.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think the thing with Marleau though is the multiple years AND the fact that Carolina knows he wants to play in SJ. They picked up Marleau pretty much knowing they were going to have to buy him out. So not only were they eating the cap hit for multiple years, they're going to have to buy him out as well.

With Callahan, you're carrying that cap for one season and you're done.

And you just put him on LTIR and get a few mil in cap savings during the season. If I understand how LTIR works..