Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[Bettman Returnz]

That'll be Zegras right after Turcotte. I assume LA runs to the podium and selects Byram. It'll get a little crazy after that because I think the Wings are also hoping for Zegras or Byram, and haven't heard how they feel about Dach.

Assume this top 5: Hughes, Kakko, Turcotte, Zegras, Byram

After that it'll get weird. No idea where Podkolzin or Broberg will go. I assume Krebs is now outside the top 10. The most likely guy to fall to us in that situation is probable Cozens or Boldy. My hunch is that Podkolzin and Caufield are outside the top 10, but Broberg is somewhere in there.

So the final 5, in some order, is likely: Dach, Cozens, Boldy, Broberg, and Newhook.

It's safe to assume we're getting a good player. Likely Newhook.

One thing is that I could see Detroit going off board and actually taking Newhook if Zegras is gone.

I’d tend to agree with you. Wouldn’t be shocked if Detroit takes a D possibly too (Broberg/ Seider). This years draft could be interesting as after 2-4 it’s a crap shoot.

 

[CanaFan]

Hot take prediction: Benning takes Seider at 10. All this about bringing in players for interviews is just smoke and mirrors

He finally gets his big RHD he has wanted for so long and after watching the Blues' run, hopes he can become our version of Pietrangelo

Hughes-Seider pairing becomes one of the top pairings in the league and eats up 25+ minutes a night for us

Also who is that Canucks insider poster and who does he have us drafting this year??

I have a hunch Seider rises into the top 10 as well, as 6’4 RHD with his defensive skill set and IQ are always highly coveted by NHL GMs. My guess is Anaheim is the most likely landing spot but I could see Benning take him if he’s there at 10. Not a certainty, but I wouldn’t be stunned.

Once you get past the surefire talents - Turcotte, Byram, maybe Dach - the draft becomes a lot about team preference and bias. Some love skill regardless of size, some will prioritize physicality and compete levels. It is going to be a lot wilder than most of our best guesses.

 

[4Twenty]

Where are people getting all the smoke about Edmonton being all in on Broberg?

 

[DFAC]

I have been reading nothing but how Colorado doesn't want to draft a D. They need a C/W in the worst way. They only have 1 line that scores and need to expand on that.

If Chicago goes with Turcotte I'm phoning COL to see what to add to the 10OA to get 4OA so we can pick Byram.

10+40 + OJ for 4 and pick Byram? COL gets their 2C in Newhook/Krebs, and early 2nd and a potential top 4 guy in Juolevi

Not sure if the value is off, guess it depends how much the Avs value Byram and the rest of the forwards from 5-12

 

[TruGr1t]

Where are people getting all the smoke about Edmonton being all in on Broberg?

There have been other less reputable reports, but I think that's the main one.

 

[Killer Orcas]

I have a hunch Seider rises into the top 10 as well, as 6’4 RHD with his defensive skill set and IQ are always highly coveted by NHL GMs. My guess is Anaheim is the most likely landing spot but I could see Benning take him if he’s there at 10. Not a certainty, but I wouldn’t be stunned.

Once you get past the surefire talents - Turcotte, Byram, maybe Dach - the draft becomes a lot about team preference and bias. Some love skill regardless of size, some will prioritize physicality and compete levels. It is going to be a lot wilder than most of our best guesses.

Honestly whats hardest position to fill? I'd say 1D and 1C are pretty even. We already have our 1C/2C so why not take a shot with a possible 1D and he's got great size, skill and apparently IQ for the game and he's RHD !! It's a lot easier finding a winger in UFA and trades then a top 4 Dman especially a RHD man. I'd be happy with Seider at ten.
Having Tryamkin possibly back in 2020 along with Hughes, Juolevi, Woo and Seider wouldn't look to shabby moving forward.

 

[TruGr1t]

I have a hunch Seider rises into the top 10 as well, as 6’4 RHD with his defensive skill set and IQ are always highly coveted by NHL GMs. My guess is Anaheim is the most likely landing spot but I could see Benning take him if he’s there at 10. Not a certainty, but I wouldn’t be stunned.

Once you get past the surefire talents - Turcotte, Byram, maybe Dach - the draft becomes a lot about team preference and bias. Some love skill regardless of size, some will prioritize physicality and compete levels. It is going to be a lot wilder than most of our best guesses.

Seider is a good prospect. I just don't think there's room for him in the top 10 unless some team thinks he's the second best defenseman in the draft. There are simply too many good centre prospects for people to take reaches on non-elite defensemen ... even if they are RHD. Broberg may slip into the top 10 due to his skating and size, but I still wouldn't be surprised if the second defenseman isn't taken until 12-15.

I think it's much more likely Newhook is taken in the top 5-10 than anyone else.

I do predict there will be a run on defensemen starting around 12-13 OA that includes Seider, Soderstrom, and some combo of Heinola/York/Harley. As soon as Krebs is off the board, I think the forwards drop off.

 

[CanaFan]

Seider is a good prospect. I just don't think there's room for him in the top 10 unless some team thinks he's the second best defenseman in the draft. There are simply too many good centre prospects for people to take reaches on non-elite defensemen ... even if they are RHD. Broberg may slip into the top 10 due to his skating and size, but I still wouldn't be surprised if the second defenseman isn't taken until 12-15.

I think it's much more likely Newhook is taken in the top 5-10 than anyone else.

I do predict there will be a run on defensemen starting around 12-13 OA that includes Seider, Soderstrom, and some combo of Heinola/York/Harley. As soon as Krebs is off the board, I think the forwards drop off.

I totally agree with your take on how teams will draft / value. What I’m less sure about is which of the available players will be viewed higher than the others. For example, I like Newhook as a prospect but I don’t see him as highly as many on our board seem to. I think he’s more “good skill” than “great skill” (he is a great skater by comparison). He’s also not big (5’10.5), nor the most aggressive player when he doesn’t have the puck. I tend to see his upside as more of a faster Sven Baertschi, which is certainly a nice player, but is it going to have teams chasing him in the top 10? Maybe, but I think more NHL GMs are going to view one of the non-Byram D as being better than that, the trick is figuring out which one that is. My hunch is Seider, in addition to the speculated Edmonton-Broberg connection. I think you could lump a few other forwards into that group as well - Krebs (enough skill?, injury), Caufield (GMs hate gambling on 5’7 players), Podkolzin (Russian factor, offensive upside), and Boldy (not sure why but doesn’t seem rated as high as Cozens, Dach). They could certainly go top 10 but my spidey sense says more than we expect will slide to 10 or later. But obviously it’s all just guesswork on my part.

 

[TruGr1t]

I totally agree with your take on how teams will draft / value. What I’m less sure about is which of the available players will be viewed higher than the others. For example, I like Newhook as a prospect but I don’t see him as highly as many on our board seem to. I think he’s more “good skill” than “great skill” (he is a great skater by comparison). He’s also not big (5’10.5), nor the most aggressive player when he doesn’t have the puck. I tend to see his upside as more of a faster Sven Baertschi, which is certainly a nice player, but is it going to have teams chasing him in the top 10? Maybe, but I think more NHL GMs are going to view one of the non-Byram D as being better than that, the trick is figuring out which one that is. My hunch is Seider, in addition to the speculated Edmonton-Broberg connection. But obviously it’s all just guesswork on my part.

Newhook's not necessarily big, but he's heavy. He clocked in at ~5-feet-11 and 192 pounds. That's basically the same weight as Boldy who is 6'2.

I've heard a few people say Newhook is likely to be a winger, but I really disagree. His play style is totally suited to NHL centre and he's strong in the circle. I've said it before, but Newhook is this year's Hayton. He'll definitely go before Caufield and I certainly think there's a chance he goes ahead of Boldy. Heck, if certain teams think Cozens projects as a winger I could see Newhook up in the 6-8 range.

I don't think Seider or any of the guys outside of Broberg have a shot at getting taken before maybe 11-12 after the Newhook/Krebs/Boldy trio is off the board.

 

[CanaFan]

Newhook's not necessarily big, but he's heavy. He clocked in at ~5-feet-11 and 192 pounds. That's basically the same weight as Boldy who is 6'2.

I've heard a few people say Newhook is likely to be a winger, but I really disagree. His play style is totally suited to NHL centre and he's strong in the circle. I've said it before, but Newhook is this year's Hayton. He'll definitely go before Caufield and I certainly think there's a chance he goes ahead of Boldy. Heck, if certain teams think Cozens projects as a winger I could see Newhook up in the 6-8 range.

I don't think Seider or any of the guys outside of Broberg have a shot at getting taken before maybe 11-12 after the Newhook/Krebs/Boldy trio is off the board.

You could be totally right, I find a lot of these are differences of impression and not worth getting too worked up about when someone sees a player a bit higher or a bit lower. Will make for interesting review after the 21st at least.

 

[Love]

Newhook's not necessarily big, but he's heavy. He clocked in at ~5-feet-11 and 192 pounds. That's basically the same weight as Boldy who is 6'2.

I've heard a few people say Newhook is likely to be a winger, but I really disagree. His play style is totally suited to NHL centre and he's strong in the circle. I've said it before, but Newhook is this year's Hayton. He'll definitely go before Caufield and I certainly think there's a chance he goes ahead of Boldy. Heck, if certain teams think Cozens projects as a winger I could see Newhook up in the 6-8 range.

I don't think Seider or any of the guys outside of Broberg have a shot at getting taken before maybe 11-12 after the Newhook/Krebs/Boldy trio is off the board.

Totally agree with you on Newhook. I have him 5th in my ranking and although the mocks don’t have him going that high, I think he’s a guy who goes higher than expected.

 

[GetFocht]

Saw an interview out of Sweden today where this potential draftee said the Canucks really liked him:

Simon Lundmark at eliteprospects.com

 

[CanadianTrashPanda]

Saw an interview out of Sweden today where this potential draftee said the Canucks really liked him:

Simon Lundmark at eliteprospects.com

Sounds like a 3rd round Gradin pick

 

[Lindgren]

Saw an interview out of Sweden today where this potential draftee said the Canucks really liked him:

Simon Lundmark at eliteprospects.com

Ryan Biech included him in a review of a few d-men who might be interesting in later rounds:

In his twenty-eight games with Linköping in the Swedish Hockey League, Lundmark posted three assists and appeared to be playing a more conservative role, trying to hold his own in the top league in Sweden.
That limited production provided some with the idea that his offensive upside may be limited but those concerns should be alleviated by his SuperElit production, that saw him put up seventeen points in twenty-five games at that level. Despite playing that few of games, he still led all Linköping HC J20 defencemen in scoring for the 2018-19 season.
He followed that up with one goal and three assists in six playoff games with the J20 team.
​

Fairbrother, Spence and Lundmark three underrated defenders to watch

A very quick look at rankings suggests he's expected to go in the fourth round.

6'2", 200 lbs, shoots right.

 

[GetFocht]

That would a great selection for 4th or 5th round.

 

[CanadianTrashPanda]

Ryan Biech included him in a review of a few d-men who might be interesting in later rounds:

In his twenty-eight games with Linköping in the Swedish Hockey League, Lundmark posted three assists and appeared to be playing a more conservative role, trying to hold his own in the top league in Sweden.
That limited production provided some with the idea that his offensive upside may be limited but those concerns should be alleviated by his SuperElit production, that saw him put up seventeen points in twenty-five games at that level. Despite playing that few of games, he still led all Linköping HC J20 defencemen in scoring for the 2018-19 season.
He followed that up with one goal and three assists in six playoff games with the J20 team.
​

Fairbrother, Spence and Lundmark three underrated defenders to watch

A very quick look at rankings suggests he's expected to go in the fourth round.

6'2", 200 lbs, shoots right.

thanks for digging up more.

Definitely sounds like someone the Canucks would pick up. Totally fits what they need RH, and Bigger

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Saw an interview out of Sweden today where this potential draftee said the Canucks really liked him:

Simon Lundmark at eliteprospects.com

Good sized right shot dman who has already played a decent amount of games in the SHL...

I'm okay with him as a 3rd rd pick option

 

[GetFocht]

I also feel like this will be a Canucks pick in the second round draft pick: Robert Mastrosimone at eliteprospects.com

everything about him just screams a Brackett pick.

 

[Bleach Clean]

That'll be Zegras right after Turcotte. I assume LA runs to the podium and selects Byram. It'll get a little crazy after that because I think the Wings are also hoping for Zegras or Byram, and haven't heard how they feel about Dach.

Assume this top 5: Hughes, Kakko, Turcotte, Zegras, Byram

After that it'll get weird. No idea where Podkolzin or Broberg will go. I assume Krebs is now outside the top 10. The most likely guy to fall to us in that situation is probable Cozens or Boldy. My hunch is that Podkolzin and Caufield are outside the top 10, but Broberg is somewhere in there.

So the final 5, in some order, is likely: Dach, Cozens, Boldy, Broberg, and Newhook.

It's safe to assume we're getting a good player. Likely Newhook.

One thing is that I could see Detroit going off board and actually taking Newhook if Zegras is gone.

What makes you think that Zegras is the 2nd forward taken in that block? Or, that the block of 6 (Top2 plus Dach, Cozens, Byram and Turcotte) will be upended by Zegras?

Further, do you have reports that have Zegras going to the Wings? Or, that they favour him? I've been looking into the stuff by Ansar Khan (their beat writer) and I can't find anything.





A few things about your take surprise me:

1. That Cozens will drop to 10. So far, I have only seen 1 mock from a fan that has him at 10. Everything else, official or unofficial, has him going in the top10.

2. That you have Dach and Cozens both in the bottom5 of the top10. 1 of those guys is gone in the top5. At least one...

I mean, I'd love it if the choice was between Cozens or Boldy. That's a great choice to have.

I have been reading nothing but how Colorado doesn't want to draft a D. They need a C/W in the worst way. They only have 1 line that scores and need to expand on that.

Can you link a tweet/report that COL does not want to draft a Dman with their 1st rounder?

COL fans have gone on for years how LHD is a major organizational need. Last 10 years, the only Dman they have chosen in with their 1st was Makar. There could be something as to how the organization favours forwards with their first pick?

Regardless, if they take a forward, it just pushes Byram down to 5th or 6th. At that point, one of LA or DET grabs him.

 

[TruGr1t]

What makes you think that Zegras is the 2nd forward taken in that block? Or, that the block of 6 (Top2 plus Dach, Cozens, Byram and Turcotte) will be upended by Zegras?

Further, do you have reports that have Zegras going to the Wings? Or, that they favour him? I've been looking into the stuff by Ansar Khan (their beat writer) and I can't find anything.

A few things about your take surprise me:

1. That Cozens will drop to 10. So far, I have only seen 1 mock from a fan that has him at 10. Everything else, official or unofficial, has him going in the top10.

2. That you have Dach and Cozens both in the bottom5 of the top10. 1 of those guys is gone in the top5. At least one...

I mean, I'd love it if the choice was between Cozens or Boldy. That's a great choice to have.

The Wings are actually dreaming of Dach, apparently. I suppose that could happen, but it would likely involve Zegras replacing him in the top 5.

I’ve heard Zegras, Dach and Vasili Podkolzin rumored to Detroit. It makes sense given Steve Yzerman’s preference for drafting skill, as well as how little hesitance he shows for drafting Russians. There was skepticism talking to sources at the combine about Zegras being Detroit’s pick, but enough people have pegged him there that I’ll go with that one.

Pronman's Mock Draft 1.0: Projecting the first round of the...

I've heard the "Yzerman is comfortable with Russian players" thing, but I think he'd be nuts to take Podkolzin over guys that will be available to the Wings at 6 OA. Those likely include Zegras, Dach, and and outside shot at Byram. Detroit is actually one of the teams, though, that I think could be a candidate to reach on a guy like Newhook if they think he's the best centre on the board. But I think they'll be taking a centre for sure unless Byram falls.

The only way Dach hits 6 OA for the Wings, per your "2," is if Zegras goes higher than expected in the four slot. I actually have a suspicion that Colorado, who is rumored to be after a centre, has their eye on Zegras. That's if they pass on Byram, which I think is still unlikely. LA would take Byram and Wings would take Dach in that scenario.

Cozens is outside that group for me. There's too many questions around his offensive upside out there despite the size and skating, and he seems to be the guy commonly put on the wing at the NHL level. If teams think will be a winger he'll fall lower than expected. Same with Boldy. That's also why I think Newhook could rise.

I expect the first round to be one (maybe two defensemen depending on Broberg) and the 8-9 forwards with the highest upside that project as centres at the NHL level. That drops Podkolzin, Boldy, Caufield, and even Cozens a bit further down my list than some of the guys not projected to be in the top 10.

 

[Zombotron]

I also feel like this will be a Canucks pick in the second round draft pick: Robert Mastrosimone at eliteprospects.com

everything about him just screams a Brackett pick.

Mastrosimone is one of my college potato picks, along with Yegor Afanasyev

 

[Canuck Luck]

With St.Louis winning hoping this means broberg goes before our selection. Blues have a few big mobile defenders and Broberg fits that description

 

[F A N]

Seider is a good prospect. I just don't think there's room for him in the top 10 unless some team thinks he's the second best defenseman in the draft.

I think Seider does have a claim for being the 2nd best Dman in the draft. But I agree with you that more likely, if the Canucks isn't picking him at 10, he falls out of the top 10.

I totally agree with your take on how teams will draft / value. What I’m less sure about is which of the available players will be viewed higher than the others. For example, I like Newhook as a prospect but I don’t see him as highly as many on our board seem to. I think he’s more “good skill” than “great skill” (he is a great skater by comparison). He’s also not big (5’10.5), nor the most aggressive player when he doesn’t have the puck. I tend to see his upside as more of a faster Sven Baertschi, which is certainly a nice player, but is it going to have teams chasing him in the top 10? Maybe, but I think more NHL GMs are going to view one of the non-Byram D as being better than that, the trick is figuring out which one that is. My hunch is Seider, in addition to the speculated Edmonton-Broberg connection. I think you could lump a few other forwards into that group as well - Krebs (enough skill?, injury), Caufield (GMs hate gambling on 5’7 players), Podkolzin (Russian factor, offensive upside), and Boldy (not sure why but doesn’t seem rated as high as Cozens, Dach). They could certainly go top 10 but my spidey sense says more than we expect will slide to 10 or later. But obviously it’s all just guesswork on my part.

I agree. To me, after the obvious top 2 there's not a whole lot of separation among that group of highly touted forwards. That doesn't mean there isn't separation. But I can't say Turcotte is far away the 3rd best forward. I might have him ranked as the 3rd best forward, but what's his ceiling? A Brayden Schenn type?

I'm with you on Newhook. If we trade down and nab him I'm fine with it. But in terms of his draft eligible year he didn't dominate the way Tyson Jost did. You're not getting a potential Elias Pettersson type player with Newhook.

I agree with the rest of your analysis. There are differentiating skillsets that is going to endear the player to certain teams.

 

[thefeebster]

I think there are a lot of potential "wildcards" in this draft. Harley could be the guy who has that meteoric Chabot-like post-draft rise. He's got huge upside...but i'm really not sold on the way he defends. It's not bad, but there are just too many over-aggressive "ooops" moments for me to dismiss.

Cam York is the guy who i think might be that "wildcard". He's got Cam Fowler sort of upside imo, as a skater and mover of the puck. Probably even better on the PP too.

But there are so many potential "wildcards" in this draft. It's so wide-open.

I mentioned a defender only because Pauser mentioned the 2016 defenseman situation.

I don't really think over-aggressive is how i would describe Harley. I haven't seen like over-aggressive pinches and said "ohh no, he can't get back in time". But aggressiveness in his own zone, that's something i'd like to see more of.

I really think York looks like Fowler; at times, its uncanny as a stylistic comparison despite the height difference. He plays a surprising physical game. But i don't think he is that creative on the PP, or at least its not discernible because he often defers to Zegras/Hughes on the right side to QB the PP.

With St.Louis winning hoping this means broberg goes before our selection. Blues have a few big mobile defenders and Broberg fits that description

Yes, because big mobile defenders are so eeewwwwww that we wouldn't want to touch that at 10.

 

[CanaFan]

I mentioned a defender only because Pauser mentioned the 2016 defenseman situation.

I don't really think over-aggressive is how i would describe Harley. I haven't seen like over-aggressive pinches and said "ohh no, he can't get back in time".

I really think York looks like Fowler; at times, its uncanny as a stylistic comparison despite the height difference. He plays a surprising physical game. But i don't think he is that creative on the PP, or at least its not discernible because he often defers to Zegras/Hughes on the right side to QB the PP.

Yes, because big mobile defenders are so eeewwwwww that we wouldn't want to touch that at 10.

Any favourites among the guys that might reasonably be available at 10? Alternatively, anyone you’d prefer to steer clear of?