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WC: 2019 Division I, II, III

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aonb said:
Lithuania 5 SOG through 40 minutes of play (and only one of them, on breakaway, was dangerous at all). That's something. Entire game looks like never ending powerplay for Kazakhstan. Bochenski and company sucks at finishing though
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That's kind of our gameplan. Worked fairly well in both games.
 
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Love the Baltic character in the Lithuanian play.

Feisty, yet disciplined, relentless and not afraid of getting bruised or injured. Love it. :)

2 close games against Kazakhstan and Belarus,you should be a little bit proud already.
 
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Also our goal was defender by 18 year-old Laurynas Lubys who blanked Poles 3-0 in pre-tournament friendlies. 2 goals allowed on ~40 shots is great, let's face it the 3rd one was de facto an empty netter.

Therein lies the tragedy though, at this day, he might be legitimately goaltender than Armalis who hasn't played particularly well in any of the games.
 
SoundAndFury said:
Also our goal was defender by 18 year-old Laurynas Lubys who blanked Poles 3-0 in pre-tournament friendlies. 2 goals allowed on ~40 shots is great, let's face it the 3rd one was de facto an empty netter.

Therein lies the tragedy though, at this day, he might be legitimately goaltender than Armalis who hasn't played particularly well in any of the games.
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Yeah, that's a trick of the mind. Lubys is definitely not better, his showing in Finland is pretty mediocre, his size is pretty bad too.

You should never look at individual games when judging goalies. Unless Armalis is injured, it's not even a question.

It's basic statistical variance at work. There's no such thing as hot streaks or bad luck.
 
Namejs said:
Yeah, that's a trick of the mind. Lubys is definitely not better, his showing in Finland is pretty mediocre, his size is pretty bad too.

You should never look at individual games when judging goalies. Unless Armalis is injured, it's not even a question.

It's basic statistical variance at work. There's no such thing as hot streaks or bad luck.
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By saying "at this day" I meant AT THIS DAY. I'm not saying Lubys is a better goalie for a season but for a game tomorrow it's really up for debate. Lubys is hot at the moment as they say in the biz, he allowed 2 goals over 120 minutes against very good opponents. Armalis is lukewarm at best, nowhere near his best, allowing 10 over the same span against the arguably worse competition.

Regarding all the other stuff you said, that's stat-watching at it's best. Sure he lacks the ideal frame and he said his model is Saros but his stats don't mean much. He just spent his 17/18 y.o. season in U20 league and on one of the worst teams there to boot. I can tell you this much, stats aside, he is definitely a better goalie than Armalis was at the same age. That's not even a question. It would be bad if he lacked proper coaching and tried to play like he's 190 cm. But he knows his shortcomings very well. Furthermore, if you checked out his U18 stats last year (as a 16/17) they are rather great.
 
DIVISION I GROUP A
Round 2 results:

Korea - Slovenia 5:3
Belarus - Hungary 3:1
Kazakhstan - Lithuania 3:1

Current standings:

1. Korea - 6 pts
2. Belarus - 6 pts
3. Kazakhstan - 6 pts
4. Slovenia - 0 pts
5. Lithuania - 0 pts
6. Hungary - 0 pts
 
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SoundAndFury said:
By saying "at this day" I meant AT THIS DAY. I'm not saying Lubys is a better goalie for a season but for a game tomorrow it's really up for debate. Lubys is hot at the moment as they say in the biz, he allowed 2 goals over 120 minutes against very good opponents. Armalis is lukewarm at best, nowhere near his best, allowing 10 over the same span against the arguably worse competition.

Regarding all the other stuff you said, that's stat-watching at it's best. Sure he lacks the ideal frame and he said his model is Saros but his stats don't mean much. He just spent his 17/18 y.o. season in U20 league and on one of the worst teams there to boot. I can tell you this much, stats aside, he is definitely a better goalie than Armalis was at the same age. That's not even a question. It would be bad if he lacked proper coaching and tried to play like he's 190 cm. But he knows his shortcomings very well. Furthermore, if you checked out his U18 stats last year (as a 16/17) they are rather great.
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There is no such thing as hot or lukewarm, it's a cognitive bias.

Goalies aren't playing subpar games due to having bad days. The days aren't bad, it's basic statistical variance due to the stochastic nature of hockey.

Once the sample size is big enough, it's possible to establish a baseline for every goalie. Lubys is too young for that, but his stats are below average within the league he's playing in.

Goalies on bad teams don't get worse stats, unless those teams are like a couple of deviations worse, but that is very rarely the case in hockey leagues.

And, yes, there's a ceiling for short goalies. You can't be an elite-level NHL goalie if you're 170 cm tall. You have to be better at everything else if you're handicapped height/wingspan-wise. Since Lubys is not showing elite stats for his age, it's quite possible he's never going to play major pro hockey.

Armalis is an average SHL-level goalie, which is really good for this level of hockey.
 
Unfortunately, Lithuania play another maybe decisive game against Hungary in just 20 hours...little time to rest for game.
 
Namejs said:
There is no such thing as hot or lukewarm, it's a cognitive bias.

Goalies aren't playing subpar games due to having bad days. The days aren't bad, it's basic statistical variance due to the stochastic nature of hockey.

Once the sample size is big enough, it's possible to establish a baseline for every goalie. Lubys is too young for that, but his stats are below average within the league he's playing in.

Goalies on bad teams don't get worse stats, unless those teams are like a couple of deviations worse, but that is very rarely the case in hockey leagues.

And, yes, there's a ceiling for short goalies. You can't be an elite-level NHL goalie if you're 170 cm tall. You have to be better at everything else if you're handicapped height/wingspan-wise. Since Lubys is not showing elite stats for his age, it's quite possible he's never going to play major pro hockey.

Armalis is an average SHL-level goalie, which is really good for this level of hockey.
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Jesus.. Well, you are the same guy who tried to prove Girgensons is a legitimate candidate for Calder, not much has changed.

So:

1) "There is no such thing as hot or lukewarm, it's a cognitive bias." - That is flat out wrong and only a person who hasn't done any serious competitive sports can say that. Form fluctuates and it depends on many factors: your physical shape, mindset, confidence, etc. "Hot" is the definition of the goalie being in peak conditions. It's extremely important for people in that position because mental part of the game is so big. Losing confidence will lead you to overplaying, taking unnecessary risks, etc. I mean seriously, whatever it is you do in life, you don't feel you can do the same task better for a period of time compared to the overall body of work? Hell, even someone who plays computer games at above casual level knows it perfectly well. Confidence, mental fatigue etc. are very real factors not to mention the physical part which is flat out obvious in sports.

2) "Goalies aren't playing subpar games due to having bad days. The days aren't bad, it's basic statistical variance due to the stochastic nature of hockey." - You have never had one of those days where you can't do anything right? When you can't make the right decision, fight the puck all the time, etc. Again, you are talking like someone who doesn't have real world experience in any of this. Furthermore, someone who follows hockey at least a bit knows you are wrong. Watch the first 3-4 games of Sharks vs. Vegas series, watch Martin Jones play like absolute garbage. Legitimately playing at the level of ECHL goalie. So you are saying it wasn't up to him to play well? He was as good as always only happened to play like trash? How does it work?

3) "Goalies on bad teams don't get worse stats, unless those teams are like a couple of deviations worse, but that is very rarely the case in hockey leagues." - yes but goalies on the good teams as a rule of thumb have better ones. Saying Lubys played on a bad team just illustrated the fact his chances to pad his stats were very limited. I mean Vladislav Okoryak, the guy who almost cost absolutely stacked Loko team the title, had .952 Sv% in the playoffs. By your logic he's all bees knees but that stat line isn't worth anything. In any case, only 12 goalies with 15+ games managed to get .900+ Sv% in Finnish U20. Lubys performed slightly below league average being 2 years underage.

4) "Since Lubys is not showing elite stats for his age" - again, absolutely loving you choose to use the stats of him playing in U20 as a 17 y.o. but continuously refuse to pay attention to stats of him playing closer to his age group - U18 at 16 - where he was great.

5) "Since Lubys is not showing elite stats for his age, it's quite possible he's never going to play major pro hockey." - What does that mean? He isn't going to play in the NHL? Sure. But all the signs seem to point he will easily have a career in Euro leagues.

At the end of the day, you ignore common sense for the sake of not having "cognitive bias". And it creates the situation where Zemgus Girgensons becomes a legitimate candidate for Calder trophy while the guy who is obviously doing very well for his age somehow becomes bad because he can't dominate against 2-3 years older competition.

Armalis himself is sort of another great proof of this. Show me the stat-line from his junior career which would have lead you to believe he ever becomes an SHL starter. His first modest success, stat-wise, was that season for Tranas at the age of 20. At Swedish 3rd division.

At junior level, very little is in the stats aside from the can't miss top talent. And even more so when it comes to goalies. Meanwhile in the real world, Lubys has dominated every freaking international tournament he has played in. Which is kinda hard to miss.
 
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roki said:
Unfortunately, Lithuania play another maybe decisive game against Hungary in just 20 hours...little time to rest for game.
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Yeah, that indeed put us in quite an unfavorable position.

Tadas Kumeliauskas has joined the team and will be a game-time decision. Well, there has never been the time we could have used him more than we do now.
 
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What an utter embarrassment by the Estonian team, stupid penalties with an awful penalty kill is always a recipe for disaster. Why did I even get my hopes up.
 
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South Korea plays Kazakhstan tomorrow. I think that game could go a long way towards determining promotion for next year.
 
To put this in perspective, Romania's record against Poland/Japan/Netherlands/Ukraine/Estonia going back to 1987 (World Championships/Olympic Qualifying) is 2-45-1. Both wins against Estonia. Last victory over Poland was 1963.
 
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DIVISION I GROUP B
Round 3 results:

Netherlands - Ukraine 1:8
Japan - Estonia 5:2
Poland - Romania 2:3/OT

Current standings:

1. Romania - 7 pts
2. Poland - 7 pts
3. Japan - 6 pts
4. Estonia - 4 pts
5. Ukraine - 3 pts
6. Netherlands - 0 pts
 
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everything that could have gone wrong for Poland happened. Two most important goals were esentially rebounds from their defenders. Obviously a better team, but that's the way it goes...
 
What a huge win for Romania! With their upcoming schedule against the underachieving Ukrainians and the woeful Dutch, suddenly the Romanians seem like the favourites for promotion to 1A.
 
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