2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Brian39]

I agree with the notion that ROR has had a bit of a lull in his defensive play lately and that he has'nt been as good overall as last year. With that said, I think it is important to point out that last year was an insanely high bar and he is still having a great season relative to your average top 6 NHL center.

He is on pace for 72 points, is once again winning faceoffs at nearly a 57% rate, has very good possession numbers (CF% of 52.1, CF% rel of 2.8, FF% of 51.8, and FF% rel of 2.6), a 1.5 defensive points share and an astounding 3:1 takeaway to giveaway ratio. The 5 on 5 offense has been lacking from what you'd expect and his line isn't dominating people at 5 on 5 like it usually does. But his stat line is still that of a high end #1 center in the NHL. He is 13th among centers in points and while he isn't Selke caliber this year, has still been way better defensively than your average high scoring center.

If this is the ROR we get for the duration of his contract, he is well worth the money and is good enough for the Blues to remain contenders.

 

[BluesBrother]

I’m pretty sure O’Reilly knows that he must save energy for the po’s, last year that wasn’t an option. Now the whole team is doing better than last year, so he doesn’t have to do all the heavy lifting by himself. He has also ”deserved His place” in the Blues, the organisation and the fans know how valuable and important piece He really is. I want to believe that the whole team is taking it easier, and hopefully will hit the next gear when the playoffs start!

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Fascinating chart from Sean Tierney:

 

[BlueDream]

I think Ryan O'Reilly's game is pretty easy to differentiate this year: the reason he doesn't have more goals is simply because he's not shooting as much. He only has 95 shots so far this season, on pace for 144. Last season he had 234. Fairly significant difference. His shooting percentage isn't too different - if he just fired the puck more he'd probably hit 20 goals or at least be close to it.

Everything else is there. Faceoffs, defensive play, assists... but that's why the goals aren't. But it doesn't really matter, because he contributes in so many areas. Hopefully, he has a season like Schwartz did last year... not a ton of regular season goals, but explodes in the playoffs.

He's such a nice 1C for us because even if he just shuts down the opponent, we have Schenn and now Thomas too at center that could get easier matchups and provide offense. Thomas, if he didn't start off the season injured, would hit 60 points this year as a 20-year old. I think next year is when he really breaks out and gets close to PPG. He's slick.

 

[BlueDream]

Sorry for double post but now replying to @Blueston's chart. I always like seeing that kinda stuff posted, it's interesting.

A couple notes:

1. It's basically guaranteed that Steen will not be traded or bought out. He can clearly still contribute in a bottom 6 role and the Blues will definitely let him finish his contract and then he probably will receive some type of role working in the organization. So if we need to clear some space in the Summer, the candidates are Bozak, Allen and Gunnarsson. I'd say at least 2 of those will be gone.

2. Zach Sanford is one of the more fascinating players I've ever seen, just in the regard that seemingly every one of his advanced stats is much better than you'd expect. This tells me, even though I already knew it, that people are definitely victims of group think and are only seeing what they want to see when it comes to him. His turnovers get pointed out constantly, but he's used his long reach and stick to get in lanes and break up passes a lot; it's just never mentioned. His game has been rounding out and he's at a different stage than where he was a year ago.

3. Jordan Kyrou has made noticeable improvement in his game as well. He's stronger, making better decisions with the puck (his possession stats and GvA vs TkA ratio are pretty good), and if he continues on this upward swing, is set to be a real solid NHL player in the 2020-2021 season. Hopefully the puck starts going in for him to gain some confidence, he's had some chances.

4. DLR and Brouwer both offer nothing and MacEachern is miles better than both.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Fascinating chart from Sean Tierney:

Barbie’s terrible defensive matrix surprised me.

 

[542365]

I’m skeptical of any metric that ranks Tyler Bozak and Zach Sanford ahead of David Perron. Evolving Wild also had Ryan Ellis as the best Dman in the league over the last decade, when he is pretty clearly not even the best Dman on his team. I feel like something is off or missing in their model.

 

[simon IC]

I’m skeptical of any metric that ranks Tyler Bozak and Zach Sanford ahead of David Perron. Evolving Wild also had Ryan Ellis as the best Dman in the league over the last decade, when he is pretty clearly not even the best Dman on his team. I feel like something is off or missing in their model.

That is why I am glad we have an old school GM like Armstrong and not an advanced stat guru like Dubas or Chayka.

 

[JoshFromMO]

I just wanted to say Petro is on pace for a 65 point season

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

That is why I am glad we have an old school GM like Armstrong and not an advanced stat guru like Dubas or Chayka.

This is an oversimplification. All indications are DA and Blues do rely on advanced stats in addition to traditional scouting, as well they should.

 

[bleedblue1223]

The problem with any advanced stat in hockey is, it's incredibly dependent on usage, linemates, and opposition. It's why those Rangers fans were always convinced that Shattenkirk was better than Pietrangelo, they always ignored that context. Thomas gets to feast on lower competition, and his linemates benefit from that. Sanford gets to play with ROR and Perron, and he benefits from that.

The charts can be beneficial when you can compare players in similar situations, but that's about it IMO. Advanced stats bring a ton of value, but it takes more to break it down and understand than a sport like baseball. In baseball, it comes down to individual matchups. Batters all face the same pitchers. All shortstops play face the same "competition". Baseball isn't dependent on your teammates or competition, outside of pitchers being dependent on the defense behind him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think Ryan O'Reilly's game is pretty easy to differentiate this year: the reason he doesn't have more goals is simply because he's not shooting as much. He only has 95 shots so far this season, on pace for 144. Last season he had 234. Fairly significant difference. His shooting percentage isn't too different - if he just fired the puck more he'd probably hit 20 goals or at least be close to it.

Everything else is there. Faceoffs, defensive play, assists... but that's why the goals aren't. But it doesn't really matter, because he contributes in so many areas. Hopefully, he has a season like Schwartz did last year... not a ton of regular season goals, but explodes in the playoffs.

He's such a nice 1C for us because even if he just shuts down the opponent, we have Schenn and now Thomas too at center that could get easier matchups and provide offense. Thomas, if he didn't start off the season injured, would hit 60 points this year as a 20-year old. I think next year is when he really breaks out and gets close to PPG. He's slick.

It's also nice to finally have centers like we have had defense for so many years. I really don't care what kind of production O'Reilly, Schenn, or Thomas have on a night to night basis because as a group, they get the job done, and they are all having really good seasons regardless. It's like with Pietrangelo and Parayko, and some of the others over the years. One could have a "down" year in terms of production, but as a group, they've always been really good. Center is now a position for us where we simply don't worry about it, where for years we were always talking about what center we could acquire.

 

[David Dennison]

Barbie’s terrible defensive matrix surprised me.

Playing physical=/= sound defense, kind of like Schenn in that regard. His production is pretty good considering his TOI and linemates, I think he would be getting more offensive chances on a less deep roster. And his lack of defense might be a bigger issue on a team that didn't have guys like Bozak and ROR and Thomas soaking up the tough minutes.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Unless he gets hot soon, i have a hard time seeing oreilly getting that close to 20 goals.

He will probably end up around 14 which is fine if he continues to be an assist machine.

We were spoiled by him having career year last season just like we were spoiled by schenn having a career year his first season with us. They played so well they set too high of expectations for themselves.

For sure, he had a great season last year and we are a bit spoiled and, perhaps, have some unrealistic expectations of him.

He is currently on pace to score 15 goals, but a little streak added in and he gets close to 20 with relative ease.

That was me. It was a comment (that I have made in several recent GDTs) that he is suddenly making some very bad decisions with the puck. Very un-ROR-like. I'm not reading too much into it, but I would like to see him simplify his game a bit because these situations are usually a result of him trying to force a play that isn't there. As you say, the points are still piling up and that's great, but he's been turning the puck over a lot more than usual, often in a very bad spot on this ice and/or at a very bad time of the game.

He has been uncharacteristicly prone to turnovers this season, but if the net effect is positive, then I’m ok with that.

I love it that we have high expectations and my guess is that ROR agrees with what we are saying.

I will say he doesn't look at ridiculously good as last year. He does seem "off" but he's still an outstanding player and having a hell of a season. I'd list it under perception that's influenced by his god like performance last year. Plus the rest of the team doesn't look like hot garbage....so that's skewing things too

He has certainly been “off”. I wonder if he is trying to play above his own style and successful methods.

In other words, just because he was integral to the Blues’ first Cup, does he think of himself as a world-beating player now?

Agree with @MissouriMook that ROR needs to simplify and get back to his game.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I’m skeptical of any metric that ranks Tyler Bozak and Zach Sanford ahead of David Perron. Evolving Wild also had Ryan Ellis as the best Dman in the league over the last decade, when he is pretty clearly not even the best Dman on his team. I feel like something is off or missing in their model.

heh, I said exactly the same thing in the article Sean Tierny (sp) wrote. Sanford is pretty damn soft on the puck a lot of the time. He's on a heater right now, which is great, but we've seen this movie before. He's Berglund 2.0. Big body who when he's on he looks like a world beater, but when he's off, he brings negative value to the table.

 

[Stealth JD]

Can we finally stop honoring Alex Steen for his 1000th game? It's obvious that his teammates hate him, dropping both games against a non-playoff division rival.

Seriously though - if they wanted to make a presentation at home for him...why not do it in his 1001st game, vs. Carolina, rather than his 1002nd game, against Winnipeg? Jets fans were probably like - wtf - really, again?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Can we finally stop honoring Alex Steen for his 1000th game? It's obvious that his teammates hate him, dropping both games against a non-playoff division rival.

Seriously though - if they wanted to make a presentation at home for him...why not do it in his 1001st game, vs. Carolina, rather than his 1002nd game, against Winnipeg? Jets fans were probably like - wtf - really, again?

Think it was because they had ring ceremony planned for Eddie before Carolina game so didn't want to step on either's toes.

 

[Brian39]

Can we finally stop honoring Alex Steen for his 1000th game? It's obvious that his teammates hate him, dropping both games against a non-playoff division rival.

Seriously though - if they wanted to make a presentation at home for him...why not do it in his 1001st game, vs. Carolina, rather than his 1002nd game, against Winnipeg? Jets fans were probably like - wtf - really, again?

There was a different ceremony before the Carolina game where they presented Eddy with his Cup ring. That couldn't exactly be rescheduled and doing ceremonies back to back would be very odd. So they pushed Steener's silver stick presentation to the next home game.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Can we finally stop honoring Alex Steen for his 1000th game? It's obvious that his teammates hate him, dropping both games against a non-playoff division rival.

Seriously though - if they wanted to make a presentation at home for him...why not do it in his 1001st game, vs. Carolina, rather than his 1002nd game, against Winnipeg? Jets fans were probably like - wtf - really, again?

Edmundson’s ring ceremony.

 

[izzy]

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues haven’t kicked it into playoff Blues yet. It’s the regular season, there’s really no need to. Once the switch goes on, their relentless forecheck will be too hard to handle for these soft western conference teams.

 

[BlueDream]

Damn, that’s pretty much a roast right there.

 

[MissouriMook]

Damn, that’s pretty much a roast right there.

I hope the GM has seen or heard that comment. Because at this point you should probably do one of two things - either remind your head coach that sometimes you have to put players in a position to succeed by doing what they do best -or- realize that the players' skills and the coach's system probably aren't a fit and sell high on the player.

At this point, I'm warming to the idea of trading Kyrou in a package for an established Top 6 scoring threat with some term, just not for a rental. I'm just afraid this is a situation where patience won't be rewarded and we end up shipping him out for peanuts trying too long to fit a square peg into a round hole.

So maybe Faulk + Kyrou + 1st to TOR for Nylander?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I hope the GM has seen or heard that comment. Because at this point you should probably do one of two things - either remind your head coach that sometimes you have to put players in a position to succeed by doing what they do best -or- realize that the players' skills and the coach's system probably aren't a fit and sell high on the player.

At this point, I'm warming to the idea of trading Kyrou in a package for an established Top 6 scoring threat with some term, just not for a rental. I'm just afraid this is a situation where patience won't be rewarded and we end up shipping him out for peanuts trying too long to fit a square peg into a round hole.

So maybe Faulk + Kyrou + 1st to TOR for Nylander?

What position would you put him in? He was with skilled guys, grinders, and vets and struggled with all. Not talking about production even, but puck battles, getting puck out of zone, getting to teammates in place to do damage, etc.. this isn’t on Berube. Kyrou needs to up his game.

 

[Ranksu]

I don't know what to say about Chief's comment on Kyrou. Its going to be shitshow if he'll get Fabbri treatment and we blow another 60'ish winger for nothing.