Salary Cap: 2019-2020 Salary Cap Crunch

[BoredBrandonPridham]

It a certain fact many Leafs fans have a wet dream that Marleau will retire so these these fans can make their fantasy rosters with 6.25m more cap space. Certainly I know about about wishful thinking FANATICS.

You don’t seem to know much about history or salary structure.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

You don’t seem to know much about history or salary structure.

You don't seem to know much about hockey history or the salary structure or the cap or the CBA. But stick to your fantasy rosters without Marleau or Good Housekeeping magazines

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You don't seem to know much about hockey history or the salary structure or the cap or the CBA. But stick to your fantasy rosters without Marleau or Good Housekeeping magazines

I see what you did there.

 

[PromisedLand]

Kapanen's rise could make Maple Leafs cap situation trickier | The Star

I see fear mongering in the media has begun.

Also I find it hilarious that they are giving Matthews 13M and Marner 10M



As far as I am concerned Leafs have a 7 year window starting this season with Tavares' 7 year deal

After this season Leafs will have 6 more years of JT. If a long term deal for Matthews and Marner doesn't materialize at a resonable cap hit then IMO Leafs should look to get them on a 5 or 6 year deal to lower the cap hit and make everyone fit under the cap.

Matthews: 9M to 10M X 5 to 6 years
Marner: 7M to 8M x 5 to 6 years
Nylander: 5M to 6M X 5 to 6 years
Kapanen: 2M to 3M x 2 to 3 years
Johnsson: 2M x2 years OR 1M x 1 year (and then see)
Leivo: 1.5 to 2M X 1 years (or 2 years)

Gardiner 6M x 4 to 5 years (and if not Good-Bye).

when marleau's contract is up look to add a UFA winger that has grit

extend brown at a reasonable deal or good-bye brownie


basically at least make sure for the next 4 to 5 years Leafs have a very legit chance at the cup. Worry about years 6 and 7 later on.....

 

[hockeywiz542]

Mirtle: Reports of the Maple Leafs' pending cap-related...

The real dilemma here for management isn’t some awful choice over whether they have to lose Nylander or Kadri or Gardiner as a way to fit everyone in. Not really. What Dubas and company have to debate is whether they can win without allocating more salary to their defence in the coming years.

If the answer is yes? Sure, keep all your talent and go cheap and young on the blueline. Find hidden gems and lean on your offensive stars to drive the bus.

But if the answer is no? Then the decision is not really about who goes to ease the cap crunch. It’s about who you trade to get you a defenceman that is good enough to compensate for what you’d be losing up front.

They also need to keep in mind that, by the summer of 2020, they will have the cap space to add a difference maker on the blueline. Even if they don’t sacrifice one of their core talents to the cap gods.

The right call, at this point, would seem to be to sit tight and see how this season plays out. Ideally, Nylander gets signed, and ideally, it’s for a cap hit of under $7-million. The Leafs should then be flush in terms of cap space by next spring’s trade deadline, so they can beef up some deficiencies in the short term and try to make a run at a Cup.

Depending on how that goes, their decisions next summer will centre on if it’s worth keeping the gang together for another go.

If they want to, they will be able to. No one has to go.

Not yet anyway.

 

[PromisedLand]

Fear mongering has begun

 

[Boutette]

Mirtle: Reports of the Maple Leafs' pending cap-related...

Not so much of a dilemma really. Only one of these three guys is irreplaceable.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Matty is going to write his own ticket and Leafs are going to agree. So I assume Dubas knows that AAV number already. I think you guys are really underestimating what he will get. 4 1st rounders for a top 5 player in the league is nothing. The likelihood of getting another Matty from any of those 4 picks is close to zero. I think that number will be 12.5M or maybe even a little above for 8 years.

Marner is the tougher one. Personally I would sign him at all costs like Matty but many will not feel that way for a high end scoring winger. 7M maybe what you think. But I think he has asked for much more. This 10M number is what a lot of people are floating around for 8 years. When push comes to shove i think he will get it especially now that Nylander situation is very dicey.

Sad but true state with Leafs we are in a CAP bottle already. This is really annoying to me as we are just getting started on our run. We have not even won our Cup yet. And we have defensive problems that need solving.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Matty is going to write his own ticket and Leafs are going to agree. So I assume Dubas knows that AAV number already.

Agree with you when you say that four first rounders won't get you another Matthews. That doesn't mean that Leafs should overspend on Matthews. Yes if an unmatchable offer sheet came in and the Leafs didn't match it, the Leafs would get the four first rounders, plus they would have the 11m or so they have allotted for Matthews. It would spending that 11m well... on another premium UFA wisely that would make the departure of Matthews somewhat palatable.

 

[BlueForever75]

How does Marner make more then a Kucherov or a Seguin that just signed deals? Someone please explain.

This is why I think everyone is out to lunch on this salary cap thing. Let things play out, the players will end up making what they should Dubas isn't a fool.

 

[Mess]

Fear mongering has begun

To me its not fear mongering as much as mistake in judgment by and inexperienced GM.

I believe Dubas has played this wrong from the start.

I personally would have understood that you had 2 young core wingers in Nylander and Marner of relative similar talent level and future potential production. I would have negotiated with Marner and Nylander as a pair together in the off-season making it imperative to get them signed ASAP.

He virtually could have offered matching 7 year $7.5 mil deals (overpaying current comparables but allowing for future potential) or ~$15 mil combined to lock them both up LT.. Now Willy is not taking $6.5 mil and Marner projects to PPG pace = >$9 mil and combined (if there is even going to be an option of both staying) will cost much more cap going forward.

One of the biggest reasons he can't get Nylander signed now is because of the gap difference between what he is offering Nylander and what turning Marner loose with centre JT and the leagues top PP unit was going to result in statistically a year from now post 2018-19 season.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Kucherov got a lot more than his contract after tax due to playing 41 games in Florida (no state tax). As per my CPA on a adjusted state tax basis he saves about 18% of his base wage. So his 9.5M if adjusted for this reality and you applied Canadian and Ontario tax on it he would have had to make about 12.8M US in Ontario to take home the same wage. This is another MAJOR problem with the CAP system as it does not deal with after tax salary which of course is what everyone cares about as players. Clearly Kucherov is the far superior player which is why he gets what he does.

On Seguin he got just under 10M per. Texas has no state tax either but does have a value add spend tax of 6.25%. Ontario has a 13% Ontario rate and a 13% value add spend tax. Tax adjusted gross salary in Ontario would have to be 12.2M US. Seguin is likely the better player than Marner and has shown in for years in points which is again why he gets more.

Dubas is no fool and he is well aware of the Ontario tax problems.

Guys have to make at least 18% more in Ontario on average to take home the same pay. So when people ask you why the Leafs have to pay more there is a reason for it.

On the counter the Leafs can and do put forward lucrative advert sponsorships for guys to help make up some of the TAX difference.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I am hoping Matty signs for 12.5M and Marner for 10M but it is not a lock. And they will both be taking discounts.

 

[PromisedLand]

To me its not fear mongering as much as mistake in judgment by and inexperienced GM.

I believe Dubas has played this wrong from the start.

I personally would have understood that you had 2 young core wingers in Nylander and Marner of relative similar talent level and future potential production. I would have negotiated with Marner and Nylander as a pair together in the off-season making it imperative to get them signed ASAP.

He virtually could have offered matching 7 year $7.5 mil deals (overpaying current comparables but allowing for future potential) or ~$15 mil combined to lock them both up LT.. Now Willy is not taking $6.5 mil and Marner projects to PPG pace = >$9 mil and combined (if there is even going to be an option of both staying) will cost much more cap going forward.

One of the biggest reasons he can't get Nylander signed now is because of the gap difference between what he is offering Nylander and what turning Marner loose with centre JT and the leagues top PP unit was going to result in statistically a year from now post 2018-19 season.

Can’t dispute any of the points you are making

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

I'm surprised you don't see the flaw in your argument.

The CBA has specific rules for contracts over 35 year olds and watches these closely to the point that even if a player retires his entire contract cap hit AAV still counts in full, to avoid any teams trying to circumvent the cap by offering extra years to lower the AAV.

1) You think Marleau is the kind of guy that is going to take his $3 mil signing bonus in year 3 and then suddenly stick to the Leafs pull the plug on his career and forego the chance at a Cup, while sticking the team with a $6.25 mil cap hit.

2) Any shenanigans by the Leafs, would be highly scrutinized by the NHL and also other teams filing cap circumvention grievances if this final year is not kosher. Also you also need to complete a successful trade of his contract thereafter, and easier said than done as you need a trading partner and also need to add assets to make it worth the other teams. Marleau would be forced to give back the $3 mil bonus if he intends to retire in year #3, thus leaving $4.5 mil in lost $$$ by early retirement.

So are you suggesting Marleau contract + Leafs 1st round pick/top prospect to a cap floor team >> Marleau simply playing out his contract and honouring it as agreed up.

So you believe that the sweetener required to be traded with Marleau to a "cap floor" team to take on a $6.25 million cap hit contract with only a $1,250,000 "real cash" cost is a first round pick or a top prospect?

 

[Golden_Jet]

It a certain fact many Leafs fans have a wet dream that Marleau will retire so these these fans can make their fantasy rosters with 6.25m more cap space. Certainly I know about about wishful thinking FANATICS.

Agreed Marleau is not waiving his NMC, and he is not retiring when he has a chance at a cup.
If Seattle gets approved to draft in 2019, then Marleau would have to be protected as well.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Agreed Marleau is not waiving his NMC, and he is not retiring when he has a chance at a cup.
If Seattle gets approved to draft in 2019, then Marleau would have to be protected as well.

Thought it looks unlikely that Seattle is getting a team for 2019/20. Players could waive with NMC (like Fleury) in an expansion draft. I'm thinking the Leafs could give Seattle a sweetener not take an exposed Marleau if it ever came to it.

I'm afraid some Leafs fans are going to drive themselves crazy next expansion draft. The Vegas draft so many were worried losing Leipisic or Leivo. What's going to happen next draft when the Leafs have multiple good players that could be drafted? (though only one can be lost).

 

[Menzinger]

My dream scenario would have them take Zaitsev off our hands

 

[GoonieFace]

I am hoping Matty signs for 12.5M and Marner for 10M but it is not a lock. And they will both be taking discounts.

You have to be kidding right? Please say your kidding for the sake of people kind

 

[indigobuffalo]

There’s also the option of 1-yr deals for one or both of Matthews and Marner to navigate around Marleau’s final year.

You can sign either for way less than their 8-yr AAV would be, then extend them for 8-years the year following.

E.g. sign Matthews to a 1-yr $8M contract then in 2020-21 sign him to a $12.5 or even $13M contract.

That gives us $4M in “freed up cap space” compared to what we expect which is to have to fit Matthews at $12M+

 

[indigobuffalo]

"Winter is coming" for all you Game of Thrones fans out there as a reference point in terms of Leafs pending future salary cap issues and concerns.

The only way to prevent it would be an annual escalating salary cap beyond the average of just the NHLPA optional 5% escalator clause option used in the CBA.

If the salary cap flattens and stagnates, Leafs will soon be forced to start throwing warm bodies overboard to remain afloat.

That’s the same for any team. Byfuglien, Sharp, Niemi, Saad, etc... all those guys and more eventually departed and were replaced by prospects internally.

We already know we can rely on our development so it’s hardly a concern.

Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander are the foundation. I’d include Andersen but I doubt the Leafs re-sign him myself, good chance Sparks takes over because of the cap.

 

[indigobuffalo]

People also need to remember that we will lose a player to the expansion draft as well.

It’s probably the same rules as for Vegas and if so we are pretty bullet-proof.

I think we’re maybe losing a guy like Brooks or Marincin. We aren’t at risk of losing anyone major or having to make bad trades to “protect” key assets.

 

[Stevevandie]

Kucherov got a lot more than his contract after tax due to playing 41 games in Florida (no state tax). As per my CPA on a adjusted state tax basis he saves about 18% of his base wage. So his 9.5M if adjusted for this reality and you applied Canadian and Ontario tax on it he would have had to make about 12.8M US in Ontario to take home the same wage. This is another MAJOR problem with the CAP system as it does not deal with after tax salary which of course is what everyone cares about as players. Clearly Kucherov is the far superior player which is why he gets what he does.

On Seguin he got just under 10M per. Texas has no state tax either but does have a value add spend tax of 6.25%. Ontario has a 13% Ontario rate and a 13% value add spend tax. Tax adjusted gross salary in Ontario would have to be 12.2M US. Seguin is likely the better player than Marner and has shown in for years in points which is again why he gets more.

Dubas is no fool and he is well aware of the Ontario tax problems.

Guys have to make at least 18% more in Ontario on average to take home the same pay. So when people ask you why the Leafs have to pay more there is a reason for it.

On the counter the Leafs can and do put forward lucrative advert sponsorships for guys to help make up some of the TAX difference.

Nice analysis. But I would think that it would make sense to take into consideration the benefits of making American dollars and living in and spending Canadian dollars. I am not sure if this would make up for the tax disadvantages or not but it probably should be taken into consideration.

 

[I am Canadian]

Here's the 2019-2020 Leafs I created through cap friendly. Traded Johnsson and a 2nd for Colin Miller whatever else to get that done - he's a cheap option for the RHD slot. Gotta let Gardiner walk as 6M+ is too much.

Signed Kapanen to 2.75 x 2.

There's space with 6.250 coming off for Marleau and the cap increasing. I assumed 2019 will be about 83M.

Capfriendly is a cool website. Leaf's cap situation doesn't look as bad as I though assuming Marner doesn't get 10M and Matthews will take 12.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Kucherov got a lot more than his contract after tax due to playing 41 games in Florida (no state tax). As per my CPA on a adjusted state tax basis he saves about 18% of his base wage. So his 9.5M if adjusted for this reality and you applied Canadian and Ontario tax on it he would have had to make about 12.8M US in Ontario to take home the same wage. This is another MAJOR problem with the CAP system as it does not deal with after tax salary which of course is what everyone cares about as players. Clearly Kucherov is the far superior player which is why he gets what he does.

On Seguin he got just under 10M per. Texas has no state tax either but does have a value add spend tax of 6.25%. Ontario has a 13% Ontario rate and a 13% value add spend tax. Tax adjusted gross salary in Ontario would have to be 12.2M US. Seguin is likely the better player than Marner and has shown in for years in points which is again why he gets more.

Dubas is no fool and he is well aware of the Ontario tax problems.

Guys have to make at least 18% more in Ontario on average to take home the same pay. So when people ask you why the Leafs have to pay more there is a reason for it.

On the counter the Leafs can and do put forward lucrative advert sponsorships for guys to help make up some of the TAX difference.

What are taxes used for?

Think about it...