I'm all for upside. I had Boqvist 3rd, most had him outside the top 5. I had Wilde 7th, most had him 15-25, and he fell out of the first round.
I think there's often an issue with figuring out who just isn't very good and who has upside that they haven't yet come close to reaching. Its no exact science, so its really just a guessing game. In this case, I've not really been very convinced.
I actually made the first post in his thread on the prospect board during this season. He's had a thread since Dec. 2014, but there was almost a year gap between my post and the previous one in the thread. On July 10th, I said.
Going into the season, I think my opinion was almost exactly what I think the Rangers current opinion is. But I saw a lot of Miller's play this year, and I didn't see much of any improvement. I thought he might've even started to regress from what I saw in his U17 season. The offense is pretty similar to last season. He gets his points in transition, carrying the puck. He has a pretty good shot. Not much of an offensive guy, besides that. Defensively, the defense really has not improved. Its almost exactly the same as what I saw last year. There are a lot of positioning errors, turns the puck over in the wrong areas, he's physical but doesn't really use it to his advantage yet.
I posted a video in the Draft thread I think on Wednesday that someone made about a lot of little subtle fundamental problems in Bouchard's game that add up to what that person thought was a low IQ hockey player. I see a lot of the same things in Miller's game. Nothing that terrible, but it adds up throughout a game.
So I'm really not very convinced. I don't particularly see anything overly creative or skillful offensively. Offensively, best case scenario is probably Skjei. Thats not bad, but I currently don't see him as anything close to Seth Jones offensively. And then defensively, I've watched him play for two years, and I've yet to see any improvement. He's a below-average defensive player right now, in my opinion. I think what the video about Bouchard shows is that sometimes there's a good reason that a player struggles with subtle fundamental areas of defense. Some of these things may not be corrected.
I would've not suggested to pick this kid prior to the draft, so I shouldn't lie and say I thought it was an excellent pick. I think this pick reminds me a lot of a high character Sean Day or maybe even a John Moore type of player. Something of that sort. I didn't watch that much of Day in his draft season, but I see a lot of the same things in pre-draft Miller in what I see of post draft Day. I've always thought Day's talent was overrated. And I think part of why he's not really maximized his ability up to this point is work ethic and character.
The good thing about this pick is that Miller is that the reports have him with a very good work ethic and character, not something you could say about day. And as I mentioned earlier, he received awful coaching this year. I don't think that helps. It is possible he is capable of improving, and the issue was completely the coaching, and not at all about Miller. Appert is that bad of a coach, and I think he's hurt the development of many of the kids he coached this year.