2018 HF Team Boards Mock Draft -- Pick #9

[Edge]

Yeah, to be clear, I wasn't saying that we should expect a higher floor than a 2nd pairing d-man at #9. I was saying that a second pairing d-man is completely unrealistic as a floor of any player drafted outside of the first few picks. Nearly every player drafted will have a sub-NHL floor.

I gotcha.

I think it’s done primarily to make it easier to understand a fairly realistic positive outcome. Listing percentages and and accounting for all variables, including the reality that failure is an option, would get incredibly complex.

 

[Joey Bones]

Looking at their drafts over the past 10 years they went more European in 2015 and in 2017--other than that it's one or two guys a year and in '15 two of the Europeans were playing in North America already--Huska in Green Bay and Zborovskiy in Regina. I will say of their Europeans playing in Europe they are some of our better picks (Hagelin a 6th--who after the draft then went to Michigan U.--Fast a 6th, Buchnevich a 3rd, and Shesterkin a 4th and then last year Andersson and Chytil). Cherepanov of course probably would have been a great player but that wasn't to be. The USNTDP players we've targeted were pretty much just high end ones--Kreider, Miller, Skjei and Miller went the CHL route and if I remember right the Rangers preferred him in Windsor instead of North Dakota U.

Basically though what I get out of it all as far as who the Rangers draft it's pretty much a mix. Now I think they've put extra attention to building up a European scouting group so we'll see. To me though if it came down to Dobson and Kotkaniemi I would take Dobson if only because I'd rather go for a No. 1 D type but Jesperi would be an excellent pick too. Whether they take Kotkaniemi or not I would guess we will be picking 3-4-5 Europeans in this year's draft. Finland came back on our radar in 2015 with the Saarela pick which we traded away before the year was out, in 2016 Reunanen who has not done much since and last year it was Virta in the last round.

Well Huska was drafted primarily out of Slovakia, as he only played in 6 USHL games with Green Bay in his draft year. And JT was moved over to Plymouth, but that's besides the point.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. I think both would be good with NYR!!

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What about Dobson?

I think he has similar potential, but elite center>elite defenseman. He's a solid player, ceiling is probably something like Pietrangelo, not spectacular at anything, but does almost everything well. He has a reasonable chance to reach his ceiling, but he also might not, and maybe he only turns into a middle pairing D. He'd be my second or third choice at #9 of those candidates.

 

[eco's bones]

I think he has similar potential, but elite center>elite defenseman. He's a solid player, ceiling is probably something like Pietrangelo, not spectacular at anything, but does almost everything well. He has a reasonable chance to reach his ceiling, but he also might not, and maybe he only turns into a middle pairing D. He'd be my second or third choice at #9 of those candidates.

You need both to have a great team.

Looking at what the Rangers have at D right now--Shattenkirk is really an offensive guy who can play passable defense. Skjei looks to me best slotted as a second pairing two way d-man. Pionk comes after that but I don't really think he's a guy you want on your first pair either. The Rangers do not have a legit 1st pairing defenseman at the moment. Maybe Hajek could be a No. 2 on a first pairing--I don't know but this is a crucial position our team needs to cover if we're going to become a contender again and the best teams do have legit 1st pairing d-men.

IMO the Rangers aren't so bad off at center. I don't see Zibanejad as a legit 1C but capable of playing that role if the Rangers can find another legit 2C. I think Hayes is fine. I can see Chytil being either a 1st or 2nd line C if he continues to develop. So the pieces might already be in place and then there's Andersson too who may end up a wing.....and Howden. There's better coverage and quality/talent at center right now than we have on defense.

Keeping in mind that neither Dobson or Kotkaniemi are guaranteed to hit their high end either.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You need both to have a great team.

Looking at what the Rangers have at D right now--Shattenkirk is really an offensive guy who can play passable defense. Skjei looks to me best slotted as a second pairing two way d-man. Pionk comes after that but I don't really think he's a guy you want on your first pair either. The Rangers do not have a legit 1st pairing defenseman at the moment. Maybe Hajek could be a No. 2 on a first pairing--I don't know but this is a crucial position our team needs to cover if we're going to become a contender again and the best teams do have legit 1st pairing d-men.

IMO the Rangers aren't so bad off at center. I don't see Zibanejad as a legit 1C but capable of playing that role if the Rangers can find another legit 2C. I think Hayes is fine. I can see Chytil being either a 1st or 2nd line C if he continues to develop. So the pieces might already be in place and then there's Andersson too who may end up a wing.....and Howden. There's better coverage and quality/talent at center right now than we have on defense.

Keeping in mind that neither Dobson or Kotkaniemi are guaranteed to hit their high end either.

I wouldn't be worried about what the team has and doesn't have. If we are picking at 9, we are picking a player we think will be better than what we have.

I also agree that there's no guarantee that any of these players hit their ceiling.

 

[broadwayblue]

I wouldn't be worried about what the team has and doesn't have. If we are picking at 9, we are picking a player we think will be better than what we have.

I also agree that there's no guarantee that any of these players hit their ceiling.

I'm not so sure that just because we are picking at 9 we will think that the player will definitely be better than the best we currently have at that position. It really depends on the position.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

So you are saying that any C we select at 9 will automatically be better than our current best C?

He’s saying he thinks Kotkaniemi is the superior prospect to Dobson, and should be picked regardless of the centers we already have in the system.

 

[broadwayblue]

He’s saying he thinks Kotkaniemi is the superior prospect to Dobson, and should be picked regardless of the centers we already have in the system.

I don't believe that's what he is saying. I mean sure, I think he is saying the first part. But I don't agree that we will think any C we pick at 9 is automatically going to be a better player than the best C currently on the team.

 

[eco's bones]

He’s saying he thinks Kotkaniemi is the superior prospect to Dobson, and should be picked regardless of the centers we already have in the system.

IMO they're both about even but Dobson if he hits fills a bigger need for our team going forward.

Saying that--if it comes down to being between Dobson and Kotkaniemi and the Rangers take Kotkaniemi I'll be fine with it---it's just if I were picking between the two it would be Dobson.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm not so sure that just because we are picking at 9 we will think that the player will definitely be better than the best we currently have at that position. It really depends on the position.

I didn't say best.

 

[eco's bones]

I don't believe that's what he is saying. I mean sure, I think he is saying the first part. But I don't agree that we will think any C we pick at 9 is automatically going to be a better player than the best C currently on the team.

People have been talking up Kotkaniemi in terms of Kopitar. One might look at Zibanejad as having similar skills to Kopitar too---for whatever reason just not making that kind of impact but Mika was a 6OA and Anze was something like a 10 or 11OA. It might work out that Jesperi turns out more like Kopitar and it might work out that he's more like Zibanejad or maybe even somewhere in between. It's a floor/ceiling thing--just as there's a floor/ceiling thing for Dobson. No guarantees but as for ceilings I wouldn't give either much of an edge over the other right now to hit their ceilings and IMO we need to fix our defense a bit more than our offense.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't believe that's what he is saying. I mean sure, I think he is saying the first part. But I don't agree that we will think any C we pick at 9 is automatically going to be a better player than the best C currently on the team.

I didn't say that any player we picked will automatically be better than all our centers. I said that we should think we are getting an impact player at center, whether they end up our best center or second best center. There shouldn't be a problem with getting them the necessary minutes and role. Lesser players at center can be moved to wing or can be traded. We shouldn't take players we don't think are as good just because we have depth at center. What we don't have at center is top-end talent. If our drafting team thinks Kotkaniemi is a top-tier center, you don't pass up on him because of Andersson, Hayes, etc.

 

[broadwayblue]

I didn't say best.

You said better than what we have. I didn't think you were comparing whoever we take at 9 to our 12th F or 6 D. Maybe I misunderstood, but I assumed you were suggesting that the 9th pick would be an upgrade over the best at that position currently.

I do agree that you don't take a lesser player because you need to fill the position more. But how do you really decide that center X is better than dman Y when they are both rated similarly at their respective positions?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

People have been talking up Kotkaniemi in terms of Kopitar. One might look at Zibanejad as having similar skills to Kopitar too---for whatever reason just not making that kind of impact but Mika was a 6OA and Anze was something like a 10 or 11OA. It might work out that Jesperi turns out more like Kopitar and it might work out that he's more like Zibanejad or maybe even somewhere in between. It's a floor/ceiling thing--just as there's a floor/ceiling thing for Dobson. No guarantees but as for ceilings I wouldn't give either much of an edge over the other right now to hit their ceilings and IMO we need to fix our defense a bit more than our offense.

I don't think Zibanejad and Kopitar are all that similar in how they play hockey. Kopitar plays much more of a two way game, more of a complete offensive player. Zibanejad is a better skater, not as heavy of a game down the middle, more of a sniper than all-around offensive player.

 

[Phoicon]

Can't get rid of the feeling that we will stay at 9 and trade for another pick around 10-17. Based on:

1. The parity of talent around 5-9 and the high cost of moving inside the top 10 to around 2-4.
2. Also based on the fact that players with a strong chance to be first-liners are still available.
3. And that this is an ideal draft to get both a first-pairing defender and a first-line forward.

Seems like the smart way forward. What do you guys think?

 

[Ghost of jas]

People have been talking up Kotkaniemi in terms of Kopitar. One might look at Zibanejad as having similar skills to Kopitar too---for whatever reason just not making that kind of impact but Mika was a 6OA and Anze was something like a 10 or 11OA. It might work out that Jesperi turns out more like Kopitar and it might work out that he's more like Zibanejad or maybe even somewhere in between. It's a floor/ceiling thing--just as there's a floor/ceiling thing for Dobson. No guarantees but as for ceilings I wouldn't give either much of an edge over the other right now to hit their ceilings and IMO we need to fix our defense a bit more than our offense.

It all depends upon whether or not the organization is confident going forward about Chytil as a 1st line center. If they see him being more comfortable on the wing, AND they view Kotkaniemi as being a potential 1st line center, then IMO, you take the center.

 

[eco's bones]

It all depends upon whether or not the organization is confident going forward about Chytil as a 1st line center. If they see him being more comfortable on the wing, AND they view Kotkaniemi as being a potential 1st line center, then IMO, you take the center.

One would think they have some confidence that Chytil has that potential. But even so.....the Rangers need a No. 1 D as much as they need a No. 1 C and if they think that Dobson has the the potential to be a No. 1 D and Kotkaniemi the potential to be a No. 1 C then they have a choice to make.

Keep in mind that Chytil made the draft cutoff by a few days last year. A few days difference and he would have been in this year's draft class. Considering how things played out for him this year he'd almost probably be a top 10 if not top 5 pick in this year's draft if he'd been born a few days later.

 

[eco's bones]

I don't think Zibanejad and Kopitar are all that similar in how they play hockey. Kopitar plays much more of a two way game, more of a complete offensive player. Zibanejad is a better skater, not as heavy of a game down the middle, more of a sniper than all-around offensive player.

Similar size and skillset to me. One player has just done more with it than the other.

 

[offdacrossbar]

you definitely dont draft for need only. you always draft the best hockey player available when your pick is up. you make room for talent in any sport. and, as we all know so well, you certainly dont draft a project in the top 10.

having said that, this organization moved its captain and best overall defender and i believe will draft an impact defender with its first pick. rather than a need thing, to me its more of a perception thing. the fact that noah dobson is arguably the best player avail at 9 in this scenario just happens to be a coincidence.

imo, if dobson is there at 9 in this scenerio, you take him. he is as good as any d man in this draft one on one. his defense is a given. he's a smothering type defender. add to that the rest of his game and he's the obvious choice at 9.

this draft is forward heavy- especially with euros. you take dobson at 9 and then try to make a move up for a guy like kravtsov or certainly joel farabee and later maybe the speedy kaut or the blazing swede hallander or if he falls, you certainly make a move for the supremely talented russian denisenko

 

[Phoicon]

you definitely dont draft for need only. you always draft the best hockey player available when your pick is up. you make room for talent in any sport. and, as we all know so well, you certainly dont draft a project in the top 10.

having said that, this organization moved its captain and best overall defender and i believe will draft an impact defender with its first pick. rather than a need thing, to me its more of a perception thing. the fact that noah dobson is arguably the best player avail at 9 in this scenario just happens to be a coincidence.

imo, if dobson is there at 9 in this scenerio, you take him. he is as good as any d man in this draft one on one. his defense is a given. he's a smothering type defender. add to that the rest of his game and he's the obvious choice at 9.

this draft is forward heavy- especially with euros. you take dobson at 9 and then try to make a move up for a guy like kravtsov or certainly joel farabee and later maybe the speedy kaut or the blazing swede hallander.

That's how I see it. Draft Dobson at 9th overall, then trade Zucc for a mid-teens pick to grab Kravtsov, Farabee or anyone who falls to that position. Then take two other top-6/top-4 potential prospects with the other two first rounders.

 

[Fireonk]

One would think they have some confidence that Chytil has that potential. But even so.....the Rangers need a No. 1 D as much as they need a No. 1 C and if they think that Dobson has the the potential to be a No. 1 D and Kotkaniemi the potential to be a No. 1 C then they have a choice to make.

Keep in mind that Chytil made the draft cutoff by a few days last year. A few days difference and he would have been in this year's draft class. Considering how things played out for him this year he'd almost probably be a top 10 if not top 5 pick in this year's draft if he'd been born a few days later.

I would think Chytil would be the consensus #3 if he was in this draft. It is funny to think that he is only 11 days older than Brady Tkachuk.

 

[kovazub94]

You need both to have a great team.

Looking at what the Rangers have at D right now--Shattenkirk is really an offensive guy who can play passable defense. Skjei looks to me best slotted as a second pairing two way d-man. Pionk comes after that but I don't really think he's a guy you want on your first pair either. The Rangers do not have a legit 1st pairing defenseman at the moment. Maybe Hajek could be a No. 2 on a first pairing--I don't know but this is a crucial position our team needs to cover if we're going to become a contender again and the best teams do have legit 1st pairing d-men.

IMO the Rangers aren't so bad off at center. I don't see Zibanejad as a legit 1C but capable of playing that role if the Rangers can find another legit 2C. I think Hayes is fine. I can see Chytil being either a 1st or 2nd line C if he continues to develop. So the pieces might already be in place and then there's Andersson too who may end up a wing.....and Howden. There's better coverage and quality/talent at center right now than we have on defense.

Keeping in mind that neither Dobson or Kotkaniemi are guaranteed to hit their high end either.

One would think they have some confidence that Chytil has that potential. But even so.....the Rangers need a No. 1 D as much as they need a No. 1 C and if they think that Dobson has the the potential to be a No. 1 D and Kotkaniemi the potential to be a No. 1 C then they have a choice to make.

Keep in mind that Chytil made the draft cutoff by a few days last year. A few days difference and he would have been in this year's draft class. Considering how things played out for him this year he'd almost probably be a top 10 if not top 5 pick in this year's draft if he'd been born a few days later.

you definitely dont draft for need only. you always draft the best hockey player available when your pick is up. you make room for talent in any sport. and, as we all know so well, you certainly dont draft a project in the top 10.

having said that, this organization moved its captain and best overall defender and i believe will draft an impact defender with its first pick. rather than a need thing, to me its more of a perception thing. the fact that noah dobson is arguably the best player avail at 9 in this scenario just happens to be a coincidence.

imo, if dobson is there at 9 in this scenerio, you take him. he is as good as any d man in this draft one on one. his defense is a given. he's a smothering type defender. add to that the rest of his game and he's the obvious choice at 9.

this draft is forward heavy- especially with euros. you take dobson at 9 and then try to make a move up for a guy like kravtsov or certainly joel farabee and later maybe the speedy kaut or the blazing swede hallander or if he falls, you certainly make a move for the supremely talented russian denisenko

EXACTLY how I see the issue: To be a contender the Rangers can be fine with Kreider, Zibanejad and one of Buchnevich or Chytil. Just need to be healthy and I promise you the doubters will be surprised. The forth of this group defaults into the second line where we already have Hayes and probably Andersson (and probably Kovalchuk) but also Fast, Spooner, Names, Vesey to keep keep this one spot while the the long-term option is developing.

Not so on D. After McD gone we do not have anybody proven who’s capable of handling the spot, not to mention - at RD where high caliber options are at big premium.

If Gorton evaluation points to Dobson and Kotkaniemi being of similar ceilings/floor and probability of getting there, then Dobson should be his choice.

 

[eco's bones]

I would think Chytil would be the consensus #3 if he was in this draft. It is funny to think that he is only 11 days older than Brady Tkachuk.

Not sure about that but I'm thinking between 5 and 10.

 

[Kovalev27]

if kotkaniemi is there vs Dobson and those are the two bpa avail you take kotkaniemi all day long. guy is a heck of a player.

lias is a winger he's not a center never will be. Chytil is a center looks absolutely lost at wing I'm not sure where this let's try chytil at wing thing came from but from what I've seen he's awful on wing. he's a center ice man likes to carry the puck likes to skate up and down the rink crazy to move him to wing

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

if kotkaniemi is there vs Dobson and those are the two bpa avail you take kotkaniemi all day long. guy is a heck of a player.

lias is a winger he's not a center never will be. Chytil is a center looks absolutely lost at wing I'm not sure where this let's try chytil at wing thing came from but from what I've seen he's awful on wing. he's a center ice man likes to carry the puck likes to skate up and down the rink crazy to move him to wing

Can you pls educate me on Kotkaniemi