2018 HF Team Boards Mock Draft -- Pick #9

[GregSirico]

I wouldn't be too sure about that.

While I think the probability is lower that he goes with a higher pick, I can't say it's completely far-fetched --- especially when you get to the five range. You can make the argument he's the best center heading into the draft and is just as much in the mix as some of the other names, even if his name hasn't been bantered about for as long a period of time.

Three seems like it would on the high end and significantly less likely, but five isn't really that far off.

If your Montreal, and you view Kotkaniemi has being right up there with the guys like Zadina, or Tkachuk, I think you slide down a couple of spots and see if you can pick up another pick or prospect. But I don't think you want to slide too far down and increase your risk if you view Kotkaniemi that high.

I think both Chi and the Rangers would have Kotkaniemi on their raders, but I don't know if Detroit and Vancouver aren't leaning more towards a defenseman and or Wahlstrom at this point. So if Montreal is interesting in Kotkaniemi, and is looking to trade down, it's about finding the balance between still being in a position where they don't trade themselves out of the picture, and find a partner who is interested and willing. In that case, I can't help but think Arizona makes the most sense, if there's any sense to be found.

Maybe. I just see so many high end d men at the front end of this draft that it’s haed for me to envision him going before 8 unless it’s to Montreal.

 

[Edge]

Maybe. I just see so many high end d men at the front end of this draft that it’s haed for me to envision him going before 8 unless it’s to Montreal.

All comes down to whether another team views those guys as high-end, and how they view Kotkaniemi.

That's one of the key things for all of us to remember in the coming weeks.

Everything we're commenting on to this point is based off our preferences, or based on lists of pundits. The lists teams put together are almost certain to be significantly different than the standard lists that seem to be floating around this year --- especially when you get past the top two or three.

 

[offdacrossbar]

noah dobson here for me. he's the BPA at 9. if he's there at 9, thats our kid.

you must remove all the emotion and fantasy from this pick. you take the BPA. period.

he's a righty dman who can skate, shoot and play defense. he's got terrific size and projects to be a legit top 4 guy as his floor and a top pair 2 way guy as his ceiling. he's got all the tools.

kot at 9 is too high. for a "scoring skill centerman" he's got skating issues that are a problem for me taking him at 9. he may be rising, but he still has holes and this is a weak centerman draft class. to me, he's still a 15 or below pick. we took lias last year who has some similar skating issues but has other intangibles to his game that negate that somewhat for me.

farabee would be my next choice but i would move down a few slots and i believe hell be there at 12-15 range. 9 for joel farabee is perhaps 3-5 picks to high. that might not work but i dont take joel at 9 with dobson there.

my preference would still be to some how grab wahlstrom by moving up.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

If we draft another center are we putting a clock on namestnikov and Hayes? Or possibly using them to move up from 26 if another guy we like is slipping?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

If we draft another center are we putting a clock on namestnikov and Hayes? Or possibly using them to move up from 26 if another guy we like is slipping?

Clock is somewhat ticking on Hayes due to the contract he will get. If he regresses at all after a big payday I expect the NYR may look to cut bait. Similar to Stepan. Pending org depth and development of Lias/Chytil of course.

Namestnikov doesn't even have a clock at this point. Would say there is a < 50% chance he is on the team in two years.

Center depth matters, and if they think JK is the BPA I think it's a great pick. Young player for his class, producing in a Men's league and at the U18s. Checks a lot of "NYR boxes."

 

[haveandare]

If we draft another center are we putting a clock on namestnikov and Hayes? Or possibly using them to move up from 26 if another guy we like is slipping?

Imo Vlad shouldn’t be playing center unless we’re in a pinch and Hayes will be pushed out only when/if Lias or Chytil or maybe Howden show they can take top matchups well.

 

[haveandare]

Voted Dobson but I could live with him or Kotkaniemi or even Farabee at 9. Both the forwards could be available later but it’s not certain - if the org loves either one and thinks theyre bpa just take them at 9.

Still hope we can move up even 1 or 2 spots and/or pry 10 from the oilers. Walking away with Dobson and one of the those forwards would be great.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I'm not too sure I want Farabee at 9. If he is our man then we should trade down to 11-12. He'll likely be there still.

In a perfect world i'm hoping we somehow land Wahlstrom who I think helped inflate Farabee's numbers this season.

 

[pblawr]

I've asked before, but I'm still curious if anyone voting for Farabee can explain why it's not a serious concern that he's scored at the same rate as Rocco Grimaldi, Peter Mueller, Patrick Eaves, Colin Wilson, Jack Roslovic, and Jeremy Morin while playing in about as favorable of a situation as you can imagine on a line with Hughes and Wahlstrom. He seems like a very unappealing choice to me and I'd be interested in understanding what the other side of the argument is.

I voted for Kotkaniemi. He outproduced Teravainen, Aho, Kapanen, and Rantanen in their pre-draft years and he still doesn't turn 18 for 2 more months. He's not only really good right now, but I think his young age means he is one of the players with the most upside from here too.

I would be ok with Dobson, but I'm seriously conflicted about not voting for Kravstov. I know he's not projected to go this high, but his KHL production is comparable to Panarin, Kaprizov, and Kuznetsov and better than Kucherov or Buchnevich, and that's before he went nuts in the playoffs. He obviously has tons of skill. On hockey talent & production alone, it seems to me like he could arguably be in the conversation with Svechnikov and Zadina for the 2nd or 3rd pick. Why shouldn't he be getting more consideration here?

 

[Ghost of jas]

noah dobson here for me. he's the BPA at 9. if he's there at 9, thats our kid.

you must remove all the emotion and fantasy from this pick. you take the BPA. period.

he's a righty dman who can skate, shoot and play defense. he's got terrific size and projects to be a legit top 4 guy as his floor and a top pair 2 way guy as his ceiling. he's got all the tools.

kot at 9 is too high. for a "scoring skill centerman" he's got skating issues that are a problem for me taking him at 9. he may be rising, but he still has holes and this is a weak centerman draft class. to me, he's still a 15 or below pick. we took lias last year who has some similar skating issues but has other intangibles to his game that negate that somewhat for me.

farabee would be my next choice but i would move down a few slots and i believe hell be there at 12-15 range. 9 for joel farabee is perhaps 3-5 picks to high. that might not work but i dont take joel at 9 with dobson there.

my preference would still be to some how grab wahlstrom by moving up.

Kotkaniemi at 9 would be too high at 9 because of skating issues, but Andersson was a great pick at 7 last year. Got it.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

noah dobson here for me. he's the BPA at 9. if he's there at 9, thats our kid.

you must remove all the emotion and fantasy from this pick. you take the BPA. period.

he's a righty dman who can skate, shoot and play defense. he's got terrific size and projects to be a legit top 4 guy as his floor and a top pair 2 way guy as his ceiling. he's got all the tools.

kot at 9 is too high. for a "scoring skill centerman" he's got skating issues that are a problem for me taking him at 9. he may be rising, but he still has holes and this is a weak centerman draft class. to me, he's still a 15 or below pick. we took lias last year who has some similar skating issues but has other intangibles to his game that negate that somewhat for me.

farabee would be my next choice but i would move down a few slots and i believe hell be there at 12-15 range. 9 for joel farabee is perhaps 3-5 picks to high. that might not work but i dont take joel at 9 with dobson there.

my preference would still be to some how grab wahlstrom by moving up.

Pretty much sums up my exact feelings on Dobson as well. I have him above Bouchard and Hughes on my "wants" list, and just below Boqvist. They're all good players, in their own right, and I would be happy with any of them. I just feel like Dobson is the perfect fit for organizational need and best talent available at 9.

Kotkaniemi feels like a prototypical "Rangers" pick at 9, and I don't mean that as a slight. He would be a fine choice, IMO, if the 3 RHD + Hughes and Wahlstrom are off the board...which would be disappointing by itself.

I like Farabee as well, but like you said, 9 feels too high to take him...especially if one or two of the aforementioned is still there (Kotkaniemi included).

 

[offdacrossbar]

Kotkaniemi at 9 would be too high at 9 because of skating issues, but Andersson was a great pick at 7 last year. Got it.

its always relative to who is available and who is next BPA on your list.

i loved lias last year and i was out front early on him. both pettersson and glass were gone. both the higher rated centerman on my list. last year was a very heavy center draft. the two i liked more than lias were those 2 i mentioned above. he was BPA on my list. and i was hoping he was drafted. he was.

lias brings much more than just skating to the table. he's a natural leader with a non stop motor, his drive to win a d mature 2 way all 3 zone play sets him apart. he's got that sneaky lethal shot and the ability to make other players better. this was enough for me to overcome the skating stuff.

he was a near nhl ready player on draft day and in my mind, a very good choice given who was still available

as for KOT, he's a solid prospect who's been a fast riser but he does have some holes and if noah dobson is there, he's my guy over KOT.

we cannot afford to make a mistake here. dobson is a top 10 talent in this draft and a righty dman with 2 way top pair stuff. to me, KOT is the only centerman in a weak center draft and not worthy of the 9th pick.

 

[True Blue]

we cannot afford to make a mistake here. dobson is a top 10 talent in this draft and a righty dman with 2 way top pair stuff. to me, KOT is the only centerman in a weak center draft and not worthy of the 9th pick.

I concur. Dobson 'appears" to be a solid 2nd pairing dman at worst, and legit top pairing RHD at best. Take that in a heartbeat. I am not an expert, but I also have him right behind Boqvist as far as defensemen go in this draft. Farabee is a solid pick as well, especially given the type of players that Gorton is talking about bringing in to the franchise. I would not be shocked if he is Gorton's choice. But like you guys, I do not think that he is top 10. 12-15 range feels about right for him.

 

[Savant]

Went Dobson.

Thought about Farabee and Kotkaniemi, but Dobson is exactly what the right side of their defense needs, and there is very low downside on that pick.

 

[pblawr]

I concur. Dobson 'appears" to be a solid 2nd pairing dman at worst, and legit top pairing RHD at best. Take that in a heartbeat. I am not an expert, but I also have him right behind Boqvist as far as defensemen go in this draft. Farabee is a solid pick as well, especially given the type of players that Gorton is talking about bringing in to the franchise. I would not be shocked if he is Gorton's choice. But like you guys, I do not think that he is top 10. 12-15 range feels about right for him.

I think there's a counterargument that the guy who is already a 2nd liner in a pro league is less risky than someone who is doing well against kids, most of whom will never play pro. There's just less of an adjustment in the level of competition for him to deal with.

 

[Thirty One]

I concur. Dobson 'appears" to be a solid 2nd pairing dman at worst, and legit top pairing RHD at best. Take that in a heartbeat. I am not an expert, but I also have him right behind Boqvist as far as defensemen go in this draft. Farabee is a solid pick as well, especially given the type of players that Gorton is talking about bringing in to the franchise. I would not be shocked if he is Gorton's choice. But like you guys, I do not think that he is top 10. 12-15 range feels about right for him.

Always skeptical when I hear a player projected to go 6-10 has a floor of a 2nd pairing defenseman.

 

[True Blue]

Always skeptical when I hear a player projected to go 6-10 has a floor of a 2nd pairing defenseman.

I understand. That said, isn't the real floor of any prospect is a player who never makes it?

I understand the concern, but it his case, I believe that it is not a knock. There have been plenty of players drafted in that range who have never made it. Dobson "appears" (as much as any prospect can appear without actually playing in the league) to be at worst a solid 2nd pairing defenseman. However, most things point to him being a prototypical anchor of the top pair in today's NHL. Fantastic skating ability, size, two way play.

Build from the net out. And if your name is not Dahlen or Boqvist, this is the player I would take to anchor my future defense.

 

[Edge]

Always skeptical when I hear a player projected to go 6-10 has a floor of a 2nd pairing defenseman.

In fairness, that's a pretty high floor when you consider that the worst case scenario is that they might not ever play in the NHL.

As much as we all want to believe that all the kids taken in the top 10 this June are going to be first line players, the reality is that more than a few who "make it" will settle into nice support roles.

And while somewhat disappointing, that still has to be considered a success.

 

[eco's bones]

I think there's a counterargument that the guy who is already a 2nd liner in a pro league is less risky than someone who is doing well against kids, most of whom will never play pro. There's just less of an adjustment in the level of competition for him to deal with.

That counterargument favors European draft eligible 17-18 year olds over draft eligible 17-18 year old North Americans simply because the European draft eligibles can play in the European professional leagues and North American eligibles cannot play in North American professional leagues. They'd have to do something like Auston Matthews did to play against mature adults. For that reason I don't particularly care for your counter argument. Dobson is pretty much playing against the highest caliber players that he can which is what Kotkaniemi is doing. In Kotkaniemi's favor like in Lias Andersson's favor last year you can't just look at raw numbers---you factor them against the stronger competition he's facing--one could imagine he'd be a 100 point player last year in a CHL league and probably not be too far off.

 

[eco's bones]

Anyway I think we could use a stud defensive prospect a lot more right now than another center. Dobson has creative offensive skill but he's also a guy who plays well in his own end. That's why his floor is a top 4--he's not a one trick pony.

To comment on Hayes---he basically did for the Rangers last year what Sean Couturier's been doing for the Flyers for years and Hayes play picked up after the deadline when he was given even more responsibility. I'm in no hurry to move him along and I'd try to get for 4 years anyway on a new term.

 

[Edge]

This is all the Rangers' fault.

They just need to find a way to walk away with Zadina and Boqvist in the first round and call it a day.

Stop being lazy Geoff Gordon!

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

This is all the Rangers' fault.

They just need to find a way to walk away with Zadina and Boqvist in the first round and call it a day.

Stop being lazy Geoff Gordon!

He needs to get off the NASCAR shit and focus on hockey, IMHO IMO.

 

[aufheben]

Thats the question. I think there's a slight possibility it might not be all that much lite. I wouldn't be surprised if he's top 3-4 in a re-draft in a few years and he turns into a good 1C. If thats the case, probably not much "lite" compared to those players. I think worse case scenario he's a Zibanejad/Stepan/Brassard level center, although I wouldn't say he's comparable stylistically to any of them.

What about Dobson?

 

[Thirty One]

In fairness, that's a pretty high floor when you consider that the worst case scenario is that they might not ever play in the NHL.

As much as we all want to believe that all the kids taken in the top 10 this June are going to be first line players, the reality is that more than a few who "make it" will settle into nice support roles.

And while somewhat disappointing, that still has to be considered a success.

Yeah, to be clear, I wasn't saying that we should expect a higher floor than a 2nd pairing d-man at #9. I was saying that a second pairing d-man is completely unrealistic as a floor of any player drafted outside of the first few picks. Nearly every player drafted will have a sub-NHL floor.

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah, to be clear, I wasn't saying that we should expect a higher floor than a 2nd pairing d-man at #9. I was saying that a second pairing d-man is completely unrealistic as a floor of any player drafted outside of the first few picks. Nearly every player drafted will have a sub-NHL floor.

Yup, in general when consider all 217 draftees but for top10OA in a deep draft the floor is likely higher.