NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[BondraTime]

Svechnikov seems very talented. I have a few questions for those that know a lot about him. First how does he compare with his brother Evgeny and what are the major differences between them?

The reason I ask this is that Evgeny was drafted 19th overall and while he is talented he isn't being talked about as an elite talent like Andrei. Is there anything about Evgeny and how he has performed since being drafted that causes any concerns about drafting Andrei?

Secondly, how good of a player is Aaron Luchuk and what kind of impact did he have on Svechnikov's offensive production this season? Luchuk had 51 points on 30 games for Windsor and then was traded to Barrie where he put up 64 points in 38 games. Luchuk had a monster year which makes me wonder if Svechnikov's offensive production could be inflated. I am not saying that Svechnikov isn't elite, I just think it is worth considering how his production was influenced by Luchuk and more importantly making a clearer comparison of pure talent between Svechnikov, Zadina and Tkachuk. Could the talent level be much closer between them?

Svechnikov made Luchuk better, not the other way around

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That's fine, in the case of how this works pertaining to the NHL draft, those born in December get an extra year of development, while being older in physical age.

You have guys like Formenton who was the youngest player in the draft being born in September and then you have guys like Brady Tkachuk who is literally less than a week older than Formenton.

Had Formenton been born 5 days later, he would be in the position Tkachuk is in, and he would probably be going in the top 20 of this draft instead of 47th in a weaker class.

In comparison, where do you think Tkachuk goes last year based on his season if he were born 2 days earlier? I struggle to see him go within the top 10

Tkachuk falls in the draft if you put more weight on that age factor .,., IE score lower in that factor.. a guy like Wahlstrom would score higher being a June 2000

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I am not saying Ryan Merkley can play defense.. I am saying he can make plays. I have no idea where they compile their stats from but .. at least he agrees

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think the real question is what is Tkachuk's offensive upside? And for that matter what is the offensive upside of all other players in the top 5 or so? With the director of scouting at ISS claiming that he could be a number 1 centre and Craig Button having him 2nd overall and CSS having him 2nd in NA, it at least suggests that he has more offensive upside than many people think. What is the average production of number 1 centre's these days?

If Tkachuk could be a 70 point player while being a physical super pest power forward then there is a lot of value there. Tkachuk also seems to do a lot of things that help a team win which there is value on as well. Part of the question is how much of a gap in offensive production are credible people projecting? There may be more offensively skilled players but if they end up only producing 10 or 15 more points then that may not be a big enough gap to pick them instead of Tkachuk. If the gap is 20 or 30 more points then there is a much stronger argument. Based on Tkuchuk's current production the first assessment is that he doesn't have high end offensive production but maybe we aren't seeing things that other scouts are. His brother Matthew made the NHL right after being drafted and he put up 48 points in 76 games and then followed that up with 49 points in 68 games. Putting up approximately 50 points as an 18 and 19 year old is very impressive in today's NHL. What is stopping Matthew from jumping to a 70 point player or more in years to come? Is it fair to say he peaked at 20?

Who are some of the elite prospects that have made the NHL as an 18 or 19 year old and what kind of production did they have? Jack Eichel had 56 points in 81 games in year 1. Pierre Luc Dubois had 48 in 82 gp. Leon Draisaitl had 51 in 72 gp. Nico Hishier had 52 in 82 gp.

It looks like Matthew Tkachuk's first year production was right up there with a lot of other highly talented prospects. Let's look at the elite prospects for comparison. Auston Mathews had 69 in 82 gp, Patrick Laine had 64 in 73, McDavid had 48 in 45 gp and Mackinnon had 63 in 82 gp. Is there anyone is the draft (aside from Dahlin) that is as talented as Matthews, Laine, McDavid or Mackinnon?

If Brady produces at a similar rate to his brother then he could be an elite forward. Or are Svechnikov or Zadina way more talented?

Sure you can look at it like that but there someone once told me there is more to hockey than just points. Its like Hoffman and Stone could get the same number of points . Why would you value Stone more?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Sure you can look at it like that but there someone once told me there is more to hockey than just points. Its like Hoffman and Stone could get the same number of points . Why would you value Stone more?

Well one thing I put a premium on are things that cannot be taught. Given the advances in technology and the knowledge of neuroplasticity there are fewer things that cannot be taught and arguably everything can be in some shape or form. I guess that means that the things that seem more difficult to teach should hold some meaningful value. For Stone, it is very difficult to teach that kind of hockey IQ. Elite hockey IQ arguably increases the probability that a player is successful in the NHL, the longevity of their career, the ability they have to help and not hurt them team and the ability to over come their deficiencies.

Shooting and passing skills can be difficult to improve but they seem much easier to improve than hockey IQ. Therefore in a prospect I would weight hockey IQ higher than passing or shooting skills. Temperament would be another thing that is difficult to teach. Is a player willing to do what it takes to be a professional? Do they have the motivation to improve? Are they willing to play multiple roles? Do they care more about winning or about personal glory? I think it is hard to find players that have real captain material and even harder to teach them those things. I also think that grit and physicality are largely driven by temperament and are actually way harder to teach than people think. A player who is nasty and mean, who hits hard, who loves physical play, who is hyper competitive and loves to rough it up, battle for space on the ice and battle for loose pucks and in the corner. There is part of that which can be taught but a lot of it the player either has the temperament to do or they don't. The Sens have had multiple big players who didn't pan out because they didn't want to play with an edge and they couldn't be mean.

Overall it is about who wins games and who wins championships. Organizations that win find players that are serious and dedicated to winning. Organizations that don't find skilled players and then try to teach them to win.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I think the real question is who gives the Sens the best chance to win the Stanley Cup and who gives the Sens the best chance to win the most number of Stanley Cups in their career?

If we compare Svechnikov vs Zadina vs Tkachuk, who is the biggest winner? When the games matter, when we are in the playoffs who brings the most to the table for the playoffs? Who will be the most valuable piece in the playoffs and who gives the Sens the best chance to win the Stanley Cup?

 

[BondraTime]

I think the real question is who gives the Sens the best chance to win the Stanley Cup and who gives the Sens the best chance to win the most number of Stanley Cups in their career?

If we compare Svechnikov vs Zadina vs Tkachuk, who is the biggest winner? When the games matter, when we are in the playoffs who brings the most to the table for the playoffs? Who will be the most valuable piece in the playoffs and who gives the Sens the best chance to win the Stanley Cup?

Svechnikov, because he is the best player

Fill the void of truculence and intangibles in other slots

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Svechnikov made Luchuk better, not the other way around

Luchuk's production in Windsor was 1.7 points per game and in Barrie his production was 1.68 points per game. How did Svechnikov make Luchuk better if his production was equivalent in both Windsor and Barrie?

Also what did Svechnikov produce prior to Luchuk being traded to Barrie and what was his production after?

EDIT: Svechnikov's production was 1.3 points per game prior to Luchuk being traded to Barrie and 1.77 points per game after Luchuk got traded. Therefore the question of Luchuk's impact on Svechnikov's production is worthwhile.

 

[BondraTime]

Luchuk's production in Windsor was 1.7 points per game and in Barrie his production was 1.68 points per game. How did Svechnikov make Luchuk better if his production was equivalent in both Windsor and Barrie?

Also what did Svechnikov produce prior to Luchuk being traded to Barrie and what was his production after?

Svechnikov
Prior
14 gp 14g 6a 20p 1.42ppg
After
30gp 26g 26a 52p 1.66ppg

Overall
1.63ppg 0.91gpg

Playoffs
8gp 5g 6a 11p

It's no surprise that his production got better as the year went on, he became acclimatised and got another offensive guy to work with.

Ask anyone who watches Barrie who stirs the drink, it's Svechnikov

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Svechnikov
Prior
14 gp 14g 6a 20p 1.42ppg
After
30gp 26g 26a 52p 1.66ppg

Overall
1.63ppg 0.91gpg

Playoffs
8gp 5g 6a 11p

It's no surprise that his production got better as the year went on, he became acclimatised and got another offensive guy to work with.

Ask anyone who watches Barrie who stirs the drink, it's Svechnikov

I checked the OHL stats and I may have miscounted but I had found it was 1.3 pts/g prior to the trade and 1.77 pts per game after the trade. Either way it is a noticeable increase after the Luchuk trade.

The question isn't whether Svechnikov is an elite offensive talent, that is self evident. The question is what is the actual gap in offensive ability between Svechnikov and both Zadina and Tkachuk. If we want to have a clear picture of the actual offensive upside of the three then it is worth critically analyzing. The impact of Luchuk could close the gap between them on pure talent alone.

 

[BondraTime]

I checked the OHL stats and I may have miscounted but I had found it was 1.3 pts/g prior to the trade and 1.77 pts per game after the trade. Either way it is a noticeable increase after the Luchuk trade.

The question isn't whether Svechnikov is an elite offensive talent, that is self evident. The question is what is the actual gap in offensive ability between Svechnikov and both Zadina and Tkachuk. If we want to have a clear picture of the actual offensive upside of the three then it is worth critically analyzing. The impact of Luchuk could close the gap between them on pure talent alone.

The difference is large, and apparent. Luchuk could have gone to Flint, and it wouldn't have made a difference to how Svechnikov played, or is perceived now. The last thing any scout is thinking is how playing alongside Luchuk is closing a gap between the players.

Shot: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Skating: Svechnikov/Tkachuk/Zadina
Hockey Sense: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Puck Skills: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Size: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina
Physicality: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina

There really shouldn't be, and I'm quite sure won't be, any questioning on who the #2 is. It's extremely obvious. The only area where Svechnikov isn't head and shoulders better than them is Size (in which he is 6-3, 190....) and physicality (he has a mean streak), both of which mean very little in terms of distinguishing the top picks compared to the skill sections.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The difference is large, and apparent. Luchuk could have gone to Flint, and it wouldn't have made a difference to how Svechnikov played, or is perceived now. The last thing any scout is thinking is how playing alongside Luchuk is closing a gap between the players.

Shot: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Skating: Svechnikov/Tkachuk/Zadina
Hockey Sense: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Puck Skills: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Size: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina
Physicality: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina

There really shouldn't be, and I'm quite sure won't be, any questioning on who the #2 is. It's extremely obvious. The only area where Svechnikov isn't head and shoulders better than them is Size (in which he is 6-3, 190....) and physicality (he has a mean streak), both of which mean very little in terms of distinguishing the top picks compared to the skill sections.

This is good... I think Svechnikov separates himself in driving play as well I would say he drives play much more and better than either Zadina or Tkachuk. He is also a very powerful skater .. he is not just deft but he is powerful enough to power past checks . IMO he is clearly the 2nd pick.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

The difference is large, and apparent. Luchuk could have gone to Flint, and it wouldn't have made a difference to how Svechnikov played, or is perceived now. The last thing any scout is thinking is how playing alongside Luchuk is closing a gap between the players.

Shot: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Skating: Svechnikov/Tkachuk/Zadina
Hockey Sense: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Puck Skills: Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk
Size: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina
Physicality: Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Zadina

There really shouldn't be, and I'm quite sure won't be, any questioning on who the #2 is. It's extremely obvious. The only area where Svechnikov isn't head and shoulders better than them is Size (in which he is 6-3, 190....) and physicality (he has a mean streak), both of which mean very little in terms of distinguishing the top picks compared to the skill sections.

I am a fan of Svechnikov and would be happy if we drafted him but many reputable scouts seem to suggest things are closer. Craig Buttion for example has Tkachuk ranked ahead of Svechnikov and many claim that it is a narrow race between Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Zadina. They must see something that is not as evident to the average fan. Maybe Svechnikov is clearly better or maybe the scouts see something subtle in Zadina and Tkachuk that is harder to evaluate.

A GM should definitely ask the impact of Luchuk on Svechnikov. Players benefit from being surrounded by talented players. Maybe Zadina or Tkachuk didn't have the same quality of players. Maybe they weren't given the same opportunities. Almost every question is meaningful when evaluating players.

 

[BondraTime]

I am a fan of Svechnikov and would be happy if we drafted him but many reputable scouts seem to suggest things are closer. Craig Buttion for example has Tkachuk ranked ahead of Svechnikov and many claim that it is a narrow race between Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Zadina. They must see something that is not as evident to the average fan. Maybe Svechnikov is clearly better or maybe the scouts see something subtle in Zadina and Tkachuk that is harder to evaluate.

A GM should definitely ask the impact of Luchuk on Svechnikov. Players benefit from being surrounded by talented players. Maybe Zadina or Tkachuk didn't have the same quality of players. Maybe they weren't given the same opportunities. Almost every question is meaningful when evaluating players.

I can guarantee that no GM's are thinking of anyone other than Svechnikov at #2.

Scouts have been souring on Zadina since the start of the new year.

I would also be extremely surprised if anyone other than Svechnikov was #2 on any rankings heading into the draft, hot take or not

 

[RAFI BOMB]

This is good... I think Svechnikov separates himself in driving play as well I would say he drives play much more and better than either Zadina or Tkachuk. He is also a very powerful skater .. he is not just deft but he is powerful enough to power past checks . IMO he is clearly the 2nd pick.

What are the concerns surrounding Svechnikov? What could lead to him not achieving his upside?
It seems like his skill and talent are self evident so the meaningful questions are likely the digging for everything that is being potentially overlooked. If you are working as a GM and you have an opportunity to draft 2nd overall, I think you would want to know every possible flaw with a prospect that is highly touted. If he can hold up to the most intense and thorough scrutiny then it would increase the confidence that he is a surefire pick for 2nd.

Svechnikov could very well be the best at 2nd but I still think it is worthwhile to look at him as critically as possible. I wouldn't want to miss some major concern or red flag and just buy into the hype. I would want to know for sure that he was better then anyone else available and that I didn't overlook anything by listening to hype.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I can guarantee that no GM's are thinking of anyone other than Svechnikov at #2.

Scouts have been souring on Zadina since the start of the new year.

I would also be extremely surprised if anyone other than Svechnikov was #2 on any rankings heading into the draft, hot take or not

What flaws do you see in Svechnikov and how could he fail as a pro? Svenchinkov could very well be a phenom but I think it is worthwhile to do the due diligence and not listen to what others think. There have been many prospects that people have agreed upon as the best in the draft that haven't worked out and clearly something meaningful was missed. Look at Nail Yakupov as an example of this.

If you are intensely critical of Svechnikov and try to figure out what others might be missing then you will be better off. If after the most through and intense critical analysis he holds up then you know that you got a winner on your hands.

 

[BondraTime]

What flaws do you see in Svechnikov and how could he fail as a pro? Svenchinkov could very well be a phenom but I think it is worthwhile to do the due diligence and not listen to what others think. There have been many prospects that people have agreed upon as the best in the draft that haven't worked out and clearly something meaningful was missed. Look at Nail Yakupov as an example of this.

If you are intensely critical of Svechnikov and try to figure out what others might be missing then you will be better off. If after the most through and intense critical analysis he holds up then you know that you got a winner on your hands.

I'm not listening to what others think, it's extremely obvious watching him play, and watching Zadina live 10+ times this year, that Zadina isn't on the same level.

I honestly see no flaws with Svechnikov's on ice game.

Skating - Huge plus
Shot - Huge plus
Size - Huge plus
I.Q - Huge plus
Puck Skills - Huge plus

He has literally everything you want in a winger in spades

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I'm not listening to what others think, it's extremely obvious watching him play, and watching Zadina live 10+ times this year, that Zadina isn't on the same level.

Fair enough. I don't know what you are or aren't doing. It is hard to tell who is actually critically analyzing players and who is paying attention to detail and who is just pushing players that are popular. I haven't seen much of Svechnikov so that is why I asked the questions. Who do you compare Svechnikov to at the NHL level? Also I have read that he has a physical side and can be nasty to play against. What are your thoughts on that? I heard one comparison to Ovechkin does he have similar physicality? Is he nasty like Malkin?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

What are the concerns surrounding Svechnikov? What could lead to him not achieving his upside?
It seems like his skill and talent are self evident so the meaningful questions are likely the digging for everything that is being potentially overlooked. If you are working as a GM and you have an opportunity to draft 2nd overall, I think you would want to know every possible flaw with a prospect that is highly touted. If he can hold up to the most intense and thorough scrutiny then it would increase the confidence that he is a surefire pick for 2nd.

Svechnikov could very well be the best at 2nd but I still think it is worthwhile to look at him as critically as possible. I wouldn't want to miss some major concern or red flag and just buy into the hype. I would want to know for sure that he was better then anyone else available and that I didn't overlook anything by listening to hype.

Unfortunately , I am not involved in making the pick. I would say , like most young offensive players, they can always improve their defensive games. Svechnikov really ticks all the boxes the scouts look for imo. I am looking forward to McKenzie's next round of rankings from 10 NHL scouts. The best way to evaluate imo is to watch them play.. I don't think you can get to a great decision or clarity doing a paper exercise or simply looking at highlight clips. Complete games or shift by shift vids are better ..Just my opinion , the eye test is the best to get a real feel for how they play, and how they can impact a game.

 

[DJB]

If we don't get 1st , it's dissapointing that the other top prospects are wingers instead of C. Wingers just don't impact the game overall as much as D and C.

I mean Laine is tremendous shooting the puck but outside of that he really doesn't do a whole lot. Sure he's a 50 goal guy but to me an elite C or D trumps a winger each and every time to me

 

[stempniaksen]

If we don't get 1st , it's dissapointing that the other top prospects are wingers instead of C. Wingers just don't impact the game overall as much as D and C.

I mean Laine is tremendous shooting the puck but outside of that he really doesn't do a whole lot. Sure he's a 50 goal guy but to me an elite C or D trumps a winger each and every time to me

I get what you're saying, but I think another high end (scoring) winger is exactly what this team needs right now. Of course you don't draft for need in the top-five, but a guy like Svechnikov could step into our top-six and contribute right from day one. We don't necessarily NEED a center if we end up keeping the guys we have in that spot (obviously all hell could break loose this summer and the team could look very different, but I'm speaking of the way the team is built at the moment).

 

[BonkTastic]

If we don't get 1st , it's dissapointing that the other top prospects are wingers instead of C. Wingers just don't impact the game overall as much as D and C.

I mean Laine is tremendous shooting the puck but outside of that he really doesn't do a whole lot. Sure he's a 50 goal guy but to me an elite C or D trumps a winger each and every time to me

I think the trade-off in that scenario is that wingers are usually the most NHL ready players, so if the team thinks it can keep EK (in theory) and thinks it can contend and that this season was an aberration (I'm not saying it was or it wasn't, I'm just playing devils advocate here), then an elite winger might be more within the timeline we are setting for ourselves.

 

[DJB]

Both you guys do make great points. Guess we will find out soon enough

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

If we don't get 1st , it's dissapointing that the other top prospects are wingers instead of C. Wingers just don't impact the game overall as much as D and C.

I mean Laine is tremendous shooting the puck but outside of that he really doesn't do a whole lot. Sure he's a 50 goal guy but to me an elite C or D trumps a winger each and every time to me

meh Kucherov is a winger, stone is a winger, alfredsson was a winger, kane is a winger.

people make too much of deal about wingers vs center imo.

Like Svechnikov is going to be a franchise winger, and better than 90/95 percent of the centers in the league.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

meh Kucherov is a winger, stone is a winger, alfredsson was a winger, kane is a winger.

people make too much of deal about wingers vs center imo.

Like Svechnikov is going to be a franchise winger, and better than 90/95 percent of the centers in the league.

Centers are definitely more valuable but we just need talent. Position doesn't really matter to me at this point, we just need the most talented player available. Most importantly we need someone who can score goals and Svechnikov is the best scorer available. We need his talents. We already have some real nice C talent and a guy like him would go light years in unlocking their potential. The team who scored the most goals wins. We don't have a single guy in the org who can be a threat to the rocket Richard race and Svech can be that for us.