Line Combos: 2018-19 Starting Roster II

[Halberdier]

Interesting.
If you don’t mind, can you please explain (to an advanced stat novice) why those results don’t seem to jive?
Copp’s Corsi numbers look great to my untrained eye but the points didn’t follow. And exactly the opposite seems to be at play with Little??
Sorry if that’s a stupid question, but I specialize in those!

There is a difference in playing with Ehlers, Laine, Perreault and Wheeler and in playing with Lowry, Tanev, Matthias and Thorburn. Also there is a difference of playing low TOI and low o-zone start%. Also it's different to play PP instead of no PP.

When Copp played with Ehlers and Laine, they made more than double amount of goals compared to ELL. Non-advanced stats, pure goals.

Don't get me wrong, Little has much better shot and is overall more talented, but he is declining and somehow doesn't mesh with Laine & Ehlers.

 

[KingBogo]

Is it just me, or does anyone else worry a bit about the defense of the Jets' top line? They have tremendous offensive talent and therefore score a lot. But early last season they struggled in their own zone, and were on the low end of shot metrics for much of the season. Also, I found the following penalty stats from last season startling...

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler (on-ice penalties taken / drawn): PenT = 44, PenD = 23 (-21)

If those 5v5 data are correct (from Corsica Hockey), then the Scheifele line is having a seriously negative effect. I think it stems from the difficulties they had in their own zone, but whatever the reason, it needs to be addressed this year.

In contrast:

Ehlers-Little-Laine: PenT = 27, PenD = 35 (+8)
Copp-Lowry-Tanev: PenT = 16, PenD = 20 (+4)

I'm not worried about them since they badly out score the competition when they are on the ice, and by season's end they were a positive possession line as well. In terms of penalties drawn Scheifele individually is a positive penalty drawer and Wheeler and Connor aren't too far in the red. Maybe better to look at who the are paired with on the back end as some of our defense have some pretty big negative numbers, which one might expect. Buff individually was -23.

 

[Ukkosenjumala]

Ehlers-Copp-Laine (58 minutes, 5v5):

CF% 57.4 (relCF% +9.4)
GF% 62.5 (relGF% +8.8)
xGF% 55.1 (relxGF% +3.5)

They were pushed heavily into the OZ for starts, but they were effective together.

Copp's offensive potential is underrated, in my view, and I think he works with Ehlers and Laine (and other skilled players) because he's a very strong skater, good at clearing his own zone, and he's a good fore-checker for puck retrieval. In some ways, I think he's a better fit for Ehlers and Laine than Little is.

Not only that, Copp has done well on the 1st line in 16-17 with Scheifele with 136 minutes together and a 54 % CF and a 73 % GF. Copp Scheifele Laine also had a strong game against dallas, the one time they were together. I don't know if he could replace Little or if it's even needed if Little and Laine get off to a good start but if they don't, why not try the guy who already has a good sample size albeit a small one.

 

[Halberdier]

I'm not worried about them since they badly out score the competition when they are on the ice, and by season's end they were a positive possession line as well. In terms of penalties drawn Scheifele individually is a positive penalty drawer and Wheeler and Connor aren't too far in the red. Maybe better to look at who the are paired with on the back end as some of our defense have some pretty big negative numbers, which one might expect. Buff individually was -23.

They outscore their competition, but not that badly (regular season + playoffs 5-on-5):

rel CF% -1.08

GF 39

GA 30

G+- 9

GF% 56.52

rel GF% 3.89

xGF 37.91

xGA 30.59

xGF+- 7.32

xGF% 55.34

rel xGF% 2.24

PenT 57

PenD 38

Pen +- -19

PDO 101

ZSR 58.41

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

When you add up pretty bad penalty +/- and use Jets PK efficiency as coefficient, you get ~4.3 more goals against, so effectively CSW was around +39 -34 = +5.

For comparison, below you can find EStL line stats:

rel CF% 0.26

GF 24

GA 12

G+- 12

GF% 66.67

rel GF% 17.71

xGF 14.94

xGA 14.18

xGF+- 0.76

xGF% 51.3

rel xGF% -2.56

PenT 9

PenD 14

Pen +- 5

PDO 105.68

ZSR 57.55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Adding again effect of positive penalty difference, that should be roughly 1 goal plus, so on total EStL was effectively +13, and their relative GF% was simply out of charts.

(Ps. It's already beaten to death why EStL with Laine needs a lot less Corsica-xGF to score a real GF when compared to eg. CSW with Wheeler: not all goal scorers are equal in their goal scoring ability, something Corsica model doesn't model.)

 

[sipowicz]

Copp or Little?

View attachment 143247

My position on Little has been the same for the past two seasons, a once very good player now on the downside of his career. Jets didn't fill the need for a real 2C in the off season and should have!

 

[DannyGallivan]

Its pretty sad that most are writing Petan off here. Nobody in camp really stepped up and won that open spot and he hasn't been here to compete for it

Exactly.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Little Scheifele Wheeler
Ehlers Copp Laine
Connor-Roslovic-Perreault
Lemieux-Lowry-Dano

Tanev, playing his role, was one of our most effective players last year. I'd take him over Lemieux, Dano and Copp.

 

[DannyGallivan]

My position on Little has been the same for the past two seasons, a once very good player now on the downside of his career. Jets didn't fill the need for a real 2C in the off season and should have!

Easier said that done. I'm sure they made the effort. In the end, they probably hope that Roslovic can fill that role, but that might not happen until mid-season. Right now, I have my fingers crossed that either Little can return to 55-60 point form, or he can reinvent his game as a defensive specialist... he's still excellent on faceoffs.

 

[ffh]

Easier said that done. I'm sure they made the effort. In the end, they probably hope that Roslovic can fill that role, but that might not happen until mid-season. Right now, I have my fingers crossed that either Little can return to 55-60 point form, or he can reinvent his game as a defensive specialist... he's still excellent on faceoffs.

I think they put zero effort or thought into getting another 2c. statsny was here and they liked him for a long time. so they would have kept him. roslovic might fill that role in a few years but not anytime soon. little has not lost it at 30. not even close.

 

[Whileee]

I'm not worried about them since they badly out score the competition when they are on the ice, and by season's end they were a positive possession line as well. In terms of penalties drawn Scheifele individually is a positive penalty drawer and Wheeler and Connor aren't too far in the red. Maybe better to look at who the are paired with on the back end as some of our defense have some pretty big negative numbers, which one might expect. Buff individually was -23.

My guess is that because they get hemmed in their zone their D end up taking penalties to prevent high danger chances. They were a +7 5v5 --- they score a lot of goals, but also give up a lot. Add to that the -21 penalty differential and I think they need to improve their play in their own zone. I think they got better as the year progressed, and they were great in the playoffs, so maybe they'll have a better start to this season. If so, the Jets will be in good shape.

 

[Halberdier]

Tanev, playing his role, was one of our most effective players last year. I'd take him over Lemieux, Dano and Copp.

Copp is much better player than Tanev in every other regard than foot speed, but otherwise I agree.

Copp > Tanev > Dano > Lemieux for me.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Copp is much better player than Tanev in every other regard than foot speed, but otherwise I agree.

Copp > Tanev > Dano > Lemieux for me.

Copp is a good member of that line, but he doesn't bring the same skills to the table that Tanev does... or he's not willing to. I notice Tanev doing positive things almost every shift. I can go most of a game without even noticing that Copp is playing.

 

[10Ducky10]

He brings different skills. Tanev is not near as smart defensively as Copper. I'd go as far as to say that Copper is one of the best D forwards on the team. I see Tanev getting hurt with his crash and bang style of play and Lemmy getting to play some games.

 

[Halberdier]

Copp is a good member of that line, but he doesn't bring the same skills to the table that Tanev does... or he's not willing to. I notice Tanev doing positive things almost every shift. I can go most of a game without even noticing that Copp is playing.

Absolutely Tanev is visible and Copp is not so much. That doesn't mean Tanev is better than Copp though. Copp is smart and does little things you appreciate only when they are missing.

Tanev is not smart or talented, but he is stupidly fast and hits everything. Add in couple of goals he made in PO, and it's easy to see why people are excited.

People usually loves "busy looking" players as they are easy to see, and some of these guys are even good players, but some busy looking guys are the worst (ask Stuart for more). It's much harder to see how some players can see where puck is going to go next so they don't have to look busy, but it just happens they are right time in the right place. It's not luck, but hockey IQ, and Copp seems to have pretty high hockey IQ.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Absolutely Tanev is visible and Copp is not so much. That doesn't mean Tanev is better than Copp though. Copp is smart and does little things you appreciate only when they are missing.

Tanev is not smart or talented, but he is stupidly fast and hits everything. Add in couple of goals he made in PO, and it's easy to see why people are excited.

Like 'em both on that line. They'll never be top six forwards, but they fill that particular niche on the Jets perfectly.

 

[mcpw]

People usually loves "busy looking" players as they are easy to see, and some of these guys are even good players, but some busy looking guys are the worst (ask Stuart for more).

I think Matt Halischuk was the most busy looking player to ever play for the Jets. Though Tanev might be up there.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Copp is a good member of that line, but he doesn't bring the same skills to the table that Tanev does... or he's not willing to. I notice Tanev doing positive things almost every shift. I can go most of a game without even noticing that Copp is playing.

Haven't looked in a while, but I don't think the stats bear this out. Copp and Lowry are "other-worldly" when together. Without each other, their numbers look worse (Copp, more so than Lowry; but Copp does bring a lot of possession to Lowry's numbers). I like Tanev and have no desire to break this line up, but he is the most replaceable on this line. In fact, I'm pretty sure that Copp-Lowry-Armia was a better line.

All that being said, if a center went down and Copp had to fill in, I think Lemieux-Lowry-Tanev would be an excellent line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not Maurice's fault that Dano came to camp overweight and out of shape the past two camps. He's actually been complimentary of Dano this preseason, and I think he'll get opportunities. KV has just been impressive, I think.

Just me guessing - but I think it is unfair to characterize Dano as "overweight and out of shape". He suddenly put on a lot of weight but I wonder if he made the same mistake some others have made of bulking up too much? He then failed to adjust it when the mistake became apparent and came to his second TC the same way. This year he has dropped weight and gained quickness.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Obviously it's better to take penalty instead of goal against, but given Jets PK, it's still bad.

I've never believed in the concept of a "good penalty". The instances where you can say with certainty that a goal would have been scored had the penalty not been taken are few and far between. So many things can happen to thwart a scoring chance even when it appears that a dangerous situation is unfolding. I would say just let nature take its course. 99% of penalties are a result of players being stupid and/or lazy. They are totally unnecessary. Look at a player like Ryan O'Reilly. 81 games played last year, two minutes in penalties. Even in his rookie season, when you expect mistakes galore, he only had 18 PIM.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My position on Little has been the same for the past two seasons, a once very good player now on the downside of his career. Jets didn't fill the need for a real 2C in the off season and should have!

If you are right Sip, the more important thing is that they should not have signed that contract with Little. It should not have been signed that soon. It should not have been for that much. It should not have been for that long. And last but not least, it should not have had that movement protection built in.

I hope you're wrong.

 

[Spock]

Vesalainen has changed his number to 93. This may be an indication that he is on the Jets' roster Thursday.

 

[MardyBum]

Vesalainen has changed his number to 93. This may be an indication that he is on the Jets' roster Thursday.

That and still practicing with Roslo and Ehlers, yeah I think he at the very least gets a long look.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've never believed in the concept of a "good penalty". The instances where you can say with certainty that a goal would have been scored had the penalty not been taken are few and far between. So many things can happen to thwart a scoring chance even when it appears that a dangerous situation is unfolding. I would say just let nature take its course. 99% of penalties are a result of players being stupid and/or lazy. They are totally unnecessary. Look at a player like Ryan O'Reilly. 81 games played last year, two minutes in penalties. Even in his rookie season, when you expect mistakes galore, he only had 18 PIM.

I think the 'good penalty' does exist but I agree, it is much more rare than is commonly believed. Players would be further ahead if they just eliminated that concept from their minds and took fewer penalties.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Vesalainen has changed his number to 93. This may be an indication that he is on the Jets' roster Thursday.

We'll know before Thursday.

The deadline of interest is Tuesday, October 2 at 5:00 p.m. New York time, when all NHL teams must submit a cap-compliant 23-man roster to the NHL.

 

[Spock]

We'll know before Thursday.

The deadline of interest is Tuesday, October 2 at 5:00 p.m. New York time, when all NHL teams must submit a cap-compliant 23-man roster to the NHL.

My post stated that we might know now.