2018-19 Roster talk; Part two

[Striiker]

"Doesn't kill us" isn't an argument. It's an excuse.

Yeah, if the argument for a player includes mentioning a lot of reasons why he won't hurt us too bad, it's probably not a great option.

We're trying to get replace old goalies with injury problems... so trading assets for an expensive one isn't at the top of my to-do list.

Especially when he hasn't even performed well this year... he has worse stats than Elliott, on a team that's given up less goals than us and the other two goalies on the Kings have put up much better numbers.

I'm not expecting a "perfect" option, but this looks like a bad one.

 

[baudib1]

I would take a look at signing Varlamov to a 3 year contract in the offseason, if he is willing to sign for that short

I think someone will give him 4 years/$28M

 

[Prongo]

We gonna get Pietrangelo but with the expense of taking Allen back. They will get Elliott in return.

 

[freakydallas13]

I think someone will give him 4 years/$28M

I mean, we could realistically offer him 3 years at 9 million per, which is pricey for sure, but the perfect term for this team. It might be more enticing than a 4th year for 1 million extra.

 

[deadhead]

I don't think anyone has done public work on systemic likelihood of Rebounds. I do know of a Rebound Probability Model that takes an xG-like approach of Expected Rebound Rates vs Actual, but that only applies at the Individual level. It looked solid when I saw the writeup a few years ago, but I haven't kept up on it. All models are bad, but some are useful and all of that.

I'm sure you could use that same data to draw some systemic conclusions, but I haven't seen it written up.

I was thinking more of the scoring rate on rebounds, which might reflect whether a defense does a good job of clearing the crease and harrassing players in the slot.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I was thinking more of the scoring rate on rebounds, which might reflect whether a defense does a good job of clearing the crease and harrassing players in the slot.

I think I can actually check this for you when I get some time. Trying to finish up in time to head down tonight. It will be vs a league average of ~27%.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

When did Striiker become infatuated with Allison? I must've missed something.

Soulless gingers (redundant) stick together.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

If all goes well, Carter Hart standing relatively tall in whatever number of games he plays in this year might just save us from a Dave Scott/Paul Holmgren-directed death plunge into the UFA/trade goaltender market this spring and summer. There are so, so, so many toxic and terrible options out there which could go so terribly wrong.

I still haven't heard one good, reasoned alternative to Hextall's goaltender signings, or lack thereof, that isn't 100% hindsight (e.g. Raanta, Hutton). I'm not saying this to spare Hexy the criticism - the point is that the goaltending options around are pretty much a total crapshoot.

Fire Haks ... oh.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Goaltending contracts are typically the most team friendly opposed to their counterparts in front of them. Even last free agency we saw teams be stingier with term than they’ve ever been. I just don’t see a guy like Varlamov getting 5-6 years. Maybe Bob will but that’s it.

 

[landsbergfan]

If all goes well, Carter Hart standing relatively tall in whatever number of games he plays in this year might just save us from a Dave Scott/Paul Holmgren-directed death plunge into the UFA/trade goaltender market this spring and summer. There are so, so, so many toxic and terrible options out there which could go so terribly wrong.

I still haven't heard one good, reasoned alternative to Hextall's goaltender signings, or lack thereof, that isn't 100% hindsight (e.g. Raanta, Hutton). I'm not saying this to spare Hexy the criticism - the point is that the goaltending options around are pretty much a total crapshoot.

Fire Haks ... oh.

I don't completely agree with that. The Neuvirth signing (and running Mason out) was pretty clearly not the greatest decision. They gave a 2 year 2.35 million AAV deal to the guy with the worst save percentage in the NHL.

I do agree that a lot of criticism is in hindsight, but the situation they found themselves in this year was pretty easy to predict.

I will just add to the conversation that the likelihood of Carter Hart just coming up right now and playing consistently well for the next 3+ years is HIGHLY unlikely. He will go through growing pains at one point or another. There really isn't a single goalie that hasn't dealt with it. Carey Price and John Gibson dealt with subpar years before becoming elite. Some of what I am stating is obvious, but I just want to point out that we shouldn't just be planning for 1 more year of Elliott and then Hart is full time starter. Need to be prepared for it to take a while even if it seems like it won't.

 

[deadhead]

Mason wasn't run out, he imploded in the 2015-16 playoffs. Then .908 S% in 2016-17. The end was nigh.

Hart may be up and down, question is whether any available veteran will do better, since they're also likely to be up and down - as goalies age, they tend to be more inconsistent and get injured more often. You're not trading for their past performance, but their future (non?)performance.

Same reason I want to see more of Stolarz and Lyon this year, they're at the age when most goalies turn the corner.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I don't completely agree with that. The Neuvirth signing (and running Mason out) was pretty clearly not the greatest decision. They gave a 2 year 2.35 million AAV deal to the guy with the worst save percentage in the NHL.

I do agree that a lot of criticism is in hindsight, but the situation they found themselves in this year was pretty easy to predict.

It was easy to predict, but that wasn't at all my point. My point was this: what should he have done? I have yet to hear an answer for this that isn't based on hindsight, and that's because there isn't an answer IMO. Again, I don't care if people want to vent about Hextall and blame him for everything - I'm not here to white knight (AKA deadhead) for him. I'm also well aware that Carter is probably going to face plenty of struggles in the near future. But people have again started to just barf out names of goaltenders we could or should go after without really thinking through the consequences of them.

 

[deadhead]

Well, this is one area where I do question our pro scouts.

It's their job to look at players around the league and find out who is over performing because of scheme/players around them (Quick?), or under performing because of a bad situation (Halak?).

I think this is among the tasks that Fletcher will assign himself this summer, give the amateur scouts a raise and see if he needs some new pro scouts. Some of it was Hextall's inaction, but when was the last time we snagged a player off waivers or in a minor trade, other than Gudas as a "throw in," who made a difference?

Also wonder if we have enough scouts in the KHL, SHL, Finnish and Czech leagues to follow veterans who might have taken their game up a notch and would be interested in coming over?

 

[AdamParrot]

 

[Striiker]

It was easy to predict, but that wasn't at all my point. My point was this: what should he have done? I have yet to hear an answer for this that isn't based on hindsight, and that's because there isn't an answer IMO. Again, I don't care if people want to vent about Hextall and blame him for everything - I'm not here to white knight (AKA deadhead) for him. I'm also well aware that Carter is probably going to face plenty of struggles in the near future. But people have again started to just barf out names of goaltenders we could or should go after without really thinking through the consequences of them.

And not only that, but also without knowing who was actually available, what the asking price was, or any of the many other factors that go into player additions.

On top of that, it's not like Elliott was a goalie with a vast injury history. If the PK had been fixed (which IS a clear mistake by Hextall), he would have probably been an acceptable placeholder. People have brought it up before, but Elliotts even strength save percentage vs his PK save percentage tells quite the tale.

 

[The Madrigal]

I like Talbot but unless the Flyers have it on good authority that they can get him re-signed for two or three years that would be kind of pointless.

 

[landsbergfan]

It was easy to predict, but that wasn't at all my point. My point was this: what should he have done? I have yet to hear an answer for this that isn't based on hindsight, and that's because there isn't an answer IMO. Again, I don't care if people want to vent about Hextall and blame him for everything - I'm not here to white knight (AKA deadhead) for him. I'm also well aware that Carter is probably going to face plenty of struggles in the near future. But people have again started to just barf out names of goaltenders we could or should go after without really thinking through the consequences of them.

I hear ya. I agree that it is mostly in hindsight. My favorite part is that no one likes to include guys like Darling and Chad Johnson, who people were absolutely clamoring for, as part of that hindsight. We could be in the same situation with another goalie contract in the mess. Knowing two of your goalies are coming off of major surgery you just can't go into the season like that.

Really it just starts well before this. I never agreed with choosing Neuvirth. I also liked some other goalies, but my main guy I think would still be playing well here (he was a part of a what would be the greatest trade ever @Magua and I put together).

 

[Prongo]

I honestly have no opinion on Talbot.

So if they get him he will come in here and shine with Hart

 

[backburner]

just say no to Talbot, unless they want A MAC as the return

 

[landsbergfan]

If they've made the determination that Hart is NHL ready, then I don't see the need to acquire another goalie. I liked the idea of taking a shot on Talbot before they moved Hart up. Maybe Elliott's injury is much more serious than we are being told right now. In that case I would be fine with him as a backup/possible starter. Talbot is the closest thing to Dubnyk in my mind (unfortunately not 6'6" and wasn't a top prospect at one point) due to the fact that he has played at a higher level and could probably use a fresh start to regain that. I think he could come in and play well and be signed to a reasonable deal to split time with Hart/Stolarz/etc. I think he would give you the same as Elliott though, so if Elliott is going to come back just stay the course

 

[Ghosts Beer]

As long as Hart can play like a solid NHL goalie, there’s no need to add another one. The new guy probably will be available because of his own struggles, will eat up cap space, require trading of assets, & may disrupt Hart due to veteran disgruntlement over playing time.

This was one of the reasons I was in favor of giving Hart a test drive.

 

[Magua]

I also liked some other goalies, but my main guy I think would still be playing well here (he was a part of a what would be the greatest trade ever @Magua and I put together).

Halak+Barzal for Schenn+.

 

[Rebels57]

Jaro Halak has basically stolen the #1 job from Rask in Boston.

We could have had him this summer too.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Same reason I want to see more of Stolarz and Lyon this year, they're at the age when most goalies turn the corner.

I agree what do the flyers have to lose this season.

 

[The Madrigal]

Any word on if/when Morin could be returning this season.