2017 Offseason Thread 5.0 Summer Doldrums

[PJ Kings Hockey]

The Kings 2012 Stanley Cup Championship documentary is airing on the NHL Network today at 2:30 this afternoon and 7 tonight.

 

[Kingspiracy]

I know the salary cap has had a big impact on the game, but why all of a sudden does it feel like the kids coming through are having a bigger impact than the established vets. No stats to back this up but it feels like players in their late 20 early thirties are falling flat, aside from a few exceptions. It didn't seem as noticeable five years ago, whats to blame?

Are the kids coming through stronger and better prepared than before? Is the junior game / amount of games kids are playing taking their toll so that by the time that they are 30 their bodies are ****ed? Has the game just got faster, to the point that experience and guile cant make up for the slight drop in reflexes?

 

[MMC]

Honestly I think its the evolution of young training and conditioning

 

[johnjm22]

I think it's partly because everyone is expected to be a 2 way player. It takes a lot of energy to play both ends of the ice. It something that suits a younger body.

It's a young man's game.

 

[damacles1156]

Everyone is coached to block shots, and never loaf on shifts. More and More JR hockey teams are demanding that players play 200ft. It doesn't change when you hit the AHL/NHL either (Play 200ft at all times)

That takes a toll on the body.

 

[KINGS17]

I know the salary cap has had a big impact on the game, but why all of a sudden does it feel like the kids coming through are having a bigger impact than the established vets. No stats to back this up but it feels like players in their late 20 early thirties are falling flat, aside from a few exceptions. It didn't seem as noticeable five years ago, whats to blame?

Are the kids coming through stronger and better prepared than before? Is the junior game / amount of games kids are playing taking their toll so that by the time that they are 30 their bodies are ****ed? Has the game just got faster, to the point that experience and guile cant make up for the slight drop in reflexes?

I think more and more the NHL is evolving into something close to the NFL. Both sports are extremely physical and take a toll on a player's body. Star players can have lengthy careers, but they are not able to stay at the top of their game for many years.

I think the younger players coming up now are introduced to training and proper nutrition at much younger ages than ever before, and if a kid isn't doing proper training or eating right, the organization he has been drafted by makes it a top priority to put them on a program and monitor their progress.

 

[Vamos Rafa]

Are we a failed free agent destination? We couldn't even attract a looking-for-retirement-money Joe Thornton.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Are we a failed free agent destination? We couldn't even attract a looking-for-retirement-money Joe Thornton.

His 'retirement' contract was for a measly $8 million.

 

[The Tikkanen]

His 'retirement' contract was for a measly $8 million.

Yah, those Thornton and Marleau rumors were enticing, I would have liked to see Thornton on the 2nd line but not at those prices.

 

[YP44]

Are we a failed free agent destination? We couldn't even attract a looking-for-retirement-money Joe Thornton.

Sounds like LA was very much a destination of interest for Joe, but at the end of the day he had $8M reasons to play next year as a shark

 

[Vamos Rafa]

It's not just Thornton, though. Why is LA just not a destination for free agents in hockey like it is in other sports?

 

[kingsholygrail]

Are we a failed free agent destination? We couldn't even attract a looking-for-retirement-money Joe Thornton.

The Kings have never been a big FA destination. I don't know how that myth stays alive with nothing backing it up.

 

[KingsFan7824]

It's not just Thornton, though. Why is LA just not a destination for free agents in hockey like it is in other sports?

Not like they haven't signed any free agents over the years. They weren't going to get Parise or Suter though, even if they wanted them.

The Dodgers are the Dodgers, and they can spend all day long. The Lakers are on the Yankees/Cowboys level of teams. There aren't that many other examples.

California isn't home to too many NHL players, so it's not going to have that sort of emotional connection. Most NHL players are from as far from LA as you can get. There is the added travel. There's a cap, so they can't really outspend other teams. When there wasn't a cap, there couldn't really outspend other teams. Maybe could've, at least after the financial issues in the 90's, but didn't.

 

[damacles1156]

I don't think this is a fair criticism. NHL stars aren't as big because hockey isn't as popular and that's not the NHL's fault. People in America don't grow up around the game. Very few people play it.

Also, in hockey the best players don't have as much impact on the game as they do in other sports. Lebron James has possession of the ball damn near half the game. Comparatively how often does Crosby have clear puck possession? Brady controls the ball every snap. A star MLB player is going to get 4 chances pretty much every game. If you watch hockey there's lots of times the best player on the ice goes an entire game without a decent scoring chance.

It's also very difficult to participate in hockey at a young age. It's very expensive, and requires you live close to a very active rink.

 

[Stimpythecat]

Travel
high state taxes
traffic

and I think another big reason is that for the longest time, the kings weren't very good. And when the kings were top contenders, the team was a cap team and couldn't get the big name guys because there was no cap room.

Can't do anything about the travel to the east coast and the traffic to staples but at least most players live on the beach around 5 miles or so from the practice facilities. Hopefully things will change and the kings can sign someone to buck the trend.

 

[BallPointHammer]

I think more and more the NHL is evolving into something close to the NFL. Both sports are extremely physical and take a toll on a player's body. Star players can have lengthy careers, but they are not able to stay at the top of their game for many years.

I think the younger players coming up now are introduced to training and proper nutrition at much younger ages than ever before, and if a kid isn't doing proper training or eating right, the organization he has been drafted by makes it a top priority to put them on a program and monitor their progress.

How much can the Kings player development improve prospects in terms of an adjusted draft selection placement and near future comparisons to the other teams?

Example: Kale Clague - drafted 2016 (2nd rd/51 overall)
Say 2 or 3 years from now
Should have been 25 to 35 overall in 2016 draft
Will be top 30 to 50 prospect overall in NHL

Mainly looking at players yet to reach AHL: Vilardi, Anderson-Dolan, Wagner, Watson, Clague, Anderson, Phillips, or really anyone else for that matter

In other words is our prospect list better than what it may seem to be at first glance.

 

[Stimpythecat]

Since it's summer and not much is going on and in the interests of discussion, I poked around and found this.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475

The difference between Budaj and Quick in expected vs actual goals against is .22 and over 45-50 games (Quick missed 60 so a healthy Quick probably would play 45-50) that's a good 10-11 goals if he met the statistical average for him.

Aside from the kings turtling more with Budaj, had Quick not been injured, the kings could have been 2nd in GA instead of the actual 6th. That had to have been worth a few more wins.

Am I looking at this right?

 

[damacles1156]

How much can the Kings player development improve prospects in terms of an adjusted draft selection placement and near future comparisons to the other teams?

Example: Kale Clague - drafted 2016 (2nd rd/51 overall)
Say 2 or 3 years from now
Should have been 25 to 35 overall in 2016 draft
Will be top 30 to 50 prospect overall in NHL

Mainly looking at players yet to reach AHL: Vilardi, Anderson-Dolan, Wagner, Watson, Clague, Anderson, Phillips, or really anyone else for that matter

In other words is our prospect list better than what it may seem to be at first glance.

The system has one single Blue Chip prospect. That's pretty bad.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Since it's summer and not much is going on and in the interests of discussion, I poked around and found this.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475

The difference between Budaj and Quick in expected vs actual goals against is .22 and over 45-50 games (Quick missed 60 so a healthy Quick probably would play 45-50) that's a good 10-11 goals if he met the statistical average for him.

Aside from the kings turtling more with Budaj, had Quick not been injured, the kings could have been 2nd in GA instead of the actual 6th. That had to have been worth a few more wins.

Am I looking at this right?

Haven't had much of a chance to look it over but also want to add that a healthy Quick would have prevented that meltdown Budaj had towards the end so it would have been worth even more imo.

 

[deeshamrock]

Since it's summer and not much is going on and in the interests of discussion, I poked around and found this.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475

The difference between Budaj and Quick in expected vs actual goals against is .22 and over 45-50 games (Quick missed 60 so a healthy Quick probably would play 45-50) that's a good 10-11 goals if he met the statistical average for him.

Aside from the kings turtling more with Budaj, had Quick not been injured, the kings could have been 2nd in GA instead of the actual 6th. That had to have been worth a few more wins.

Am I looking at this right?

A few more, perhaps but goaltending and defense wasn't the problem, scoring was and the kings were worse after JQ came back. That said, Quick is a great goalie but also has played within a very staunch defensive system , which helps.
I am curious to see if Stevens more offensive style will affect that, in the zone time and scoring ops for the other team spiking.

A lot of things went wrong for the Kings last year and esp the widening of the stress cracks Sutter created over the last 3 yrs. I don't think JQ could have fixed that, but am hoping the fresh air in that room will motivate his teammates.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Since it's summer and not much is going on and in the interests of discussion, I poked around and found this.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475

The difference between Budaj and Quick in expected vs actual goals against is .22 and over 45-50 games (Quick missed 60 so a healthy Quick probably would play 45-50) that's a good 10-11 goals if he met the statistical average for him.

Aside from the kings turtling more with Budaj, had Quick not been injured, the kings could have been 2nd in GA instead of the actual 6th. That had to have been worth a few more wins.

Am I looking at this right?

Every season comes down to injuries, and a couple guys having either career years or down years. The Kings had a huge injury with Quick, but also got a career year out of Budaj, which helped keep the team afloat. Then a career worst performance from Zatkoff, even in a handful of games. Carter had a good overall year, which was canceled out by Kopitar worst overall season. Pearson had a career year, but Toffoli had a down year. Martinez had a career year in points, but Muzzin was trash. Doughty was just pedestrian. Brown had a more productive year than other recent seasons, but Gaborik was non-existent.

Doughty had to play at a league MVP level, and it wasn't there. Carter, Pearson, Martinez and Budaj needed to be better than they were to offset Kopitar, Toffoli, Muzzin, and Quick, but that didn't happen.

We'll never know what last year would've been if Quick didn't get hurt on day 1 of the season. It could've changed a lot, or maybe it wouldn't have. There's a lot to point to that could've been worth a few more wins. There wasn't one day during the season where they were even at .500 in regulation. Hung around thanks to 3v3. They were always playing catch-up.

 

[deeshamrock]

Every season comes down to injuries, and a couple guys having either career years or down years. The Kings had a huge injury with Quick, but also got a career year out of Budaj, which helped keep the team afloat. Then a career worst performance from Zatkoff, even in a handful of games. Carter had a good overall year, which was canceled out by Kopitar worst overall season. Pearson had a career year, but Toffoli had a down year. Martinez had a career year in points, but Muzzin was trash. Doughty was just pedestrian. Brown had a more productive year than other recent seasons, but Gaborik was non-existent.

Doughty had to play at a league MVP level, and it wasn't there. Carter, Pearson, Martinez and Budaj needed to be better than they were to offset Kopitar, Toffoli, Muzzin, and Quick, but that didn't happen.

We'll never know what last year would've been if Quick didn't get hurt on day 1 of the season. It could've changed a lot, or maybe it wouldn't have. There's a lot to point to that could've been worth a few more wins. There wasn't one day during the season where they were even at .500 in regulation. Hung around thanks to 3v3. They were always playing catch-up.

whole post is right on target and esp the ending. Playing catchup is okay if in the minority but no the majority, very telling.

 

[deeshamrock]

The Mayor John Hoven‏ @mayorNHL · 7h7 hours ago


 Monday, October 2nd - San Diego Gulls will host @ontarioreign at the Ponda. Free game for the public. Full of Ducks & Kings top prospects.

 

[Stimpythecat]

thanks for the responses.

Just look at last year. Forbort, LaDue, and gravel were rookies. Greene was hurt. McNabb was a project and had effectively only 2 seasons of games played going in. The kings tried to force a Muzzin/Martinez second pairing and we now know that for whatever reason you want to attribute that to, it doesn't work.

Despite all that, the kings still had the #6 defense in GA. The defense questions from last year are gone and we know not to pair Muzzin/Martinez together. Arguably the defense has improved with a couple depth signings. Quick returns.

I think the kings have a Jennings caliber defense. Add in presumably healthy bounce back years from Kopitar and Toffoli for 15 more goals and an improved defense, and I think we can be better than people expect. Maybe significantly better.

Or am I

 

[deeshamrock]

thanks for the responses.

Just look at last year. Forbort, LaDue, and gravel were rookies. Greene was hurt. McNabb was a project and had effectively only 2 seasons of games played going in. The kings tried to force a Muzzin/Martinez second pairing and we now know that for whatever reason you want to attribute that to, it doesn't work.

Despite all that, the kings still had the #6 defense in GA. The defense questions from last year are gone and we know not to pair Muzzin/Martinez together. Arguably the defense has improved with a couple depth signings. Quick returns.

I think the kings have a Jennings caliber defense. Add in presumably healthy bounce back years from Kopitar and Toffoli for 15 more goals and an improved defense, and I think we can be better than people expect. Maybe significantly better.

Or am I

[/QUOTE]

No, you're not, having faith and confidence in any team you follow is one of the best parts of being a fan. It's why I'm watching Eagles practices on the NFL Network and getting 'inspired' by Carson wentz. Maybe, finally, he's the guy that leads them to the promise land.
The Kings should be better but the competition around them will be too. They're in a tough spot. And a large part of that #6 was due to Budaj playing so well for most of the season. He kept them within spitting distance of a wildcard when the team in front of him failed on most nights. I don't see the Kings in the Jennings race, though. And hopefully those young d won't suffer thru too many sophomore slump games, because that's a tough part of the growth process. But they played well in tough circumstances, all those low scoring games with pressure on when the Kings were behind. That's all good experience. And Stevens is a players coach, so that, I think, will help the whole team.