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2017 Offseason Thread 5.0 Summer Doldrums

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Raccoon Jesus said:
If nothing else, Blake is doing a good job conjuring up a variety of competition for roster spots out of thin air. Maybe none of these guys stick, but from Laich to Fantenburg, can't say he's not trying.
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He can't be any worse than Seto when he was on a pto, and he made the top line on opening night. :shakehead
 
KINGS17 said:
Sadly, this is pretty much on the mark as far as the Pacific Division goes at least.
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I don't see the Ducks dominating points as they predict. Gibson is still an injury prone goalie and Miller isn't the same 2012 goalie. They'll probably still win the division[or EDM] but the rest of the division is wide open between SJ,LA, and Calgary.
 
I think the Kings can improve significantly just by being healthy.

The link below indicates there was a big difference between Quick and Budaj. The failed Muzzin/Martinez pairing is not going to be repeated. Going into last season Forbort, LaDue, and Gravel were all rookies and the kings had to play a project in McNabb that had barely 3 seasons worth of games played.

the other members of the defense aren't question marks any more. Forbort exceeded expectations. Folin from what Wild fans say has top 4 potential. Fantenberg provides added depth and Gravel is no longer a rookie. We aren't going to pair Muzzin and Martinez together - at least we shouldn't.

I can see 15 goals fewer in GA. the link indicates 10 is reasonable from getting Quick back alone.

Bounce back seasons for kopitar and toffoli would help. Kopitar averaged 24 goals. I'm hoping for 20. And 25 from Toffoli. That's 17 more right there.

So I think 215-220 GF is doable. I have seen a number of other posters here expect a lot more GF. NHL average last season was 227. So still below average. But add in the GA reduction and the goal GF/GA differential could be in the 30s even with a significantly below average offense. That's a solid #3 or even #2 division team.

Key Kings GF stats
2012 GF 188
2014 GF 198
2017 GF 199

The kings can weather a well below average offense. The question becomes is the defense good enough. the average GF/GA for a division winner last season was +40 - and that includes the Caps insane not to be repeated numbers.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475
 
The Tikkanen said:
I'd be curious to see a recap of goals added and lost by all teams in the west this offseason. The Kings would have to be near the bottom.
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Minnesota - 245 (-18)
Winnipeg - 244 (-2)
Anaheim - 238 (+18)
Edmonton - 226 (-17)
Dallas - 225 (+3)
St.Louis - 215 (-18)
Nashville - 211 (-27)
Vancouver - 204 (+26)
Calgary - 201 (-21)
Chicago - 200 (-40)
Los Angeles - 189 (-10)
San Jose - 188 (-31)
Las Vegas - 153
Arizona - 148 (-43)
Colorado - 134 (-31)

The goals from last year for players currently under contract on each team, and the difference between what they ended the season with. Not an exact science.
 
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Stimpythecat said:
I think the Kings can improve significantly just by being healthy.

The link below indicates there was a big difference between Quick and Budaj. The failed Muzzin/Martinez pairing is not going to be repeated. Going into last season Forbort, LaDue, and Gravel were all rookies and the kings had to play a project in McNabb that had barely 3 seasons worth of games played.

the other members of the defense aren't question marks any more. Forbort exceeded expectations. Folin from what Wild fans say has top 4 potential. Fantenberg provides added depth and Gravel is no longer a rookie. We aren't going to pair Muzzin and Martinez together - at least we shouldn't.

I can see 15 goals fewer in GA. the link indicates 10 is reasonable from getting Quick back alone.

Bounce back seasons for kopitar and toffoli would help. Kopitar averaged 24 goals. I'm hoping for 20. And 25 from Toffoli. That's 17 more right there.

So I think 215-220 GF is doable. I have seen a number of other posters here expect a lot more GF. NHL average last season was 227. So still below average. But add in the GA reduction and the goal GF/GA differential could be in the 30s even with a significantly below average offense. That's a solid #3 or even #2 division team.

Key Kings GF stats
2012 GF 188
2014 GF 198
2017 GF 199

The kings can weather a well below average offense. The question becomes is the defense good enough. the average GF/GA for a division winner last season was +40 - and that includes the Caps insane not to be repeated numbers.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475
Click to expand...

The key of course is can Quick play 60 games? If so, then they are headed in the right direction.

In addition to that, can the top forwards (Carter, Kopitar, Toffoli and Pearson) score about 100 goals? Last year, this quartet scored 84, and the 17 you mentioned by Kopitar and Toffoli and you've got 101.

Can they get the necessary support? Last year, Gaborik (replace with Cammalleri as you see fit), Lewis, Dewey and Brown all scored 10+, Muzzin and Martinez each had 9, and you have 66.

That's a total of 167. Leaving 40-50 to the depth, Brodzinski, Kempe, Dowd, Shore, Clifford, Nolan etc. No one guy is getting you 15, but Dowd, Shore, Clifford and Nolan got 22 last year, meaning if they get anything from Kempe, Brodzinski, Forbort, LaDue and whoever fills the last spot (Gravel, Folin, Fantenberg etc) then 215 is attainable, at least on paper.
 
Those are legit questions.

Can Quick stay healthy?
Can Kopitar and Toffoli bounce back?
Can the other roster players come close to last season?

I think Kopitar and Toffoli can. toffoli is 25, missed significant time, and came back hurt and needed surgery. He can put up 30+ but I'm hoping for 25. Anything beyond that is a plus. I'm not hoping for a career year from Kopitar, just a bit below his career average.

It's the Lewis, Brown, et al. that I'm admittedly more concerned about. I guess we'll see when the season starts. :)
 
I'm with you guys who believe the Kings can have a legit bounce back season
 
KingsFan7824 said:
Minnesota - 245 (-18)
Winnipeg - 244 (-2)
Anaheim - 238 (+18)
Edmonton - 226 (-17)
Dallas - 225 (+3)
St.Louis - 215 (-18)
Nashville - 211 (-27)
Vancouver - 204 (+26)
Calgary - 201 (-21)
Chicago - 200 (-40)
Los Angeles - 189 (-10)
San Jose - 188 (-31)
Las Vegas - 153
Arizona - 148 (-43)
Colorado - 134 (-31)

The goals from last year for players currently under contract on each team, and the difference between what they ended the season with. Not an exact science.
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Thanks for that, not an exact science I just find it interesting in hockey how teams can tinker their lineups, claim to be better and have lost goals in the offseason. Statistically speaking the Kings had the 4th best offseason. They may not score a lot of goals but maybe the strategy is the rest of the West won't be scoring as much as they did last season or are relying on bounce back seasons and/or youth to navigate the cap.
 
deeshamrock said:
SUrprised they have the Hawks so high, their d took a pretty good hit and they lost Panarin . Crawford will have to be better, given the shift in the top 4.
I had the Oilers, Duck and Flames in the top 3 Pacific slots. Although Gibson and Miller are a good tandem and the do have a pretty balanced team, I think the Oilers will win more games, McD and Drais are the best center tandem in the West.
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Yup some are overestimating the Hawks, I'm not confident in their D and Toews needs to get it going if they want to remain on the top. I think the Ducks will be well off but I'm not too sure about their forwards; Perry is slowing down, he's been on a slow downwards trend and Kesler while he's great he's injury prone.
 
The Tikkanen said:
Thanks for that, not an exact science I just find it interesting in hockey how teams can tinker their lineups, claim to be better and have lost goals in the offseason. Statistically speaking the Kings had the 4th best offseason. They may not score a lot of goals but maybe the strategy is the rest of the West won't be scoring as much as they did last season or are relying on bounce back seasons and/or youth to navigate the cap.
Click to expand...

It's tough to judge an offseason that way. Like you said, it is interesting to see, but every goal in isn't going to equal every goal going out. Every team needs a bounce back season from someone, or has to hope guys don't have down years, or needs productive young players.

Staal had a great year for the Wild last year, and he's older than Kopitar.
 
Stimpythecat said:
I think the Kings can improve significantly just by being healthy.

The link below indicates there was a big difference between Quick and Budaj. The failed Muzzin/Martinez pairing is not going to be repeated. Going into last season Forbort, LaDue, and Gravel were all rookies and the kings had to play a project in McNabb that had barely 3 seasons worth of games played.

the other members of the defense aren't question marks any more. Forbort exceeded expectations. Folin from what Wild fans say has top 4 potential. Fantenberg provides added depth and Gravel is no longer a rookie. We aren't going to pair Muzzin and Martinez together - at least we shouldn't.

I can see 15 goals fewer in GA. the link indicates 10 is reasonable from getting Quick back alone.

Bounce back seasons for kopitar and toffoli would help. Kopitar averaged 24 goals. I'm hoping for 20. And 25 from Toffoli. That's 17 more right there.

So I think 215-220 GF is doable. I have seen a number of other posters here expect a lot more GF. NHL average last season was 227. So still below average. But add in the GA reduction and the goal GF/GA differential could be in the 30s even with a significantly below average offense. That's a solid #3 or even #2 division team.

Key Kings GF stats
2012 GF 188
2014 GF 198
2017 GF 199

The kings can weather a well below average offense. The question becomes is the defense good enough. the average GF/GA for a division winner last season was +40 - and that includes the Caps insane not to be repeated numbers.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-goaltenders-and-expected-goals-against-1.809475
Click to expand...

THe stats and below average offense were with Sutter's system, not Stevens.

GF over the last 5 seasons - 2.6
GA over the last 5 seasons - 2.3

That left little room for error (props to Quick) and that will change, with more scoring ops with the new system.
They will score more and be a more exciting team to watch and I think will be better, as far as players producing.

But those Key stats you used above, were based on Sutter's defense, not STevens. And even though those players are trained under Sutter, there will be differences that will affect the zone time, SOG's and goals for the opposition. I like their young d but do expect sophomore-itis that hits a lot of players in the 2nd year. And they are adjusting to a new system. I see them in the 225 goal range per team, but I also see a spike in the GA with a new system that will deploy and use the players differently in some areas.

I think TT will be in the low 30's as far as goals, Carter, Pearson and Kopi are in the 25 ea range.

Also, the competition, league wide, is better and there are no more gimme games, with the current playoff structure. Most teams fight a little harder for those 2 pts. There is a boatload of young talent around the league which is going to become the norm, due to the CAP. Right now, the Kings (doughty aside) have an aging core.

They need to get off to a great start, bank some points, and hopefully adjusting to a new system , with them familiar with the coach, won't be as long as it takes normally.
And JQ should have a good year.
I think the Pearson, TT, LaDue, Gravel, and co, the young top players coming up and Vilardi and such in the next few years, will be a very solid path forward for the team
 
Exactly why he dropped in the draft: not just skating concerns. Again, I don't care if speed is the hot thing right now...this kids tape was pretty silly and he doesn't fall like this in a weak draft if there aren't injury concerns.

Can we begin to worry now or is the refrain still "it's just rookie camp and training camp"...
 
BigKing said:
Exactly why he dropped in the draft: not just skating concerns. Again, I don't care if speed is the hot thing right now...this kids tape was pretty silly and he doesn't fall like this in a weak draft if there aren't injury concerns.

Can we begin to worry now or is the refrain still "it's just rookie camp and training camp"...
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Worry if you want, but I never anticipated him being on the roster this season anyway. I say sit him and let him fully recover, take it easy, and do his time in the minors. If the back problems go away, great. If not, he's an unfortunate lemon. But I think the Kings have one of the better medical staffs in the NHL, so if anyone can help him it's this org.
 
kingsholygrail said:
Worry if you want, but I never anticipated him being on the roster this season anyway. I say sit him and let him fully recover, take it easy, and do his time in the minors. If the back problems go away, great. If not, he's an unfortunate lemon. But I think the Kings have one of the better medical staffs in the NHL, so if anyone can help him it's this org.
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I never expected him here this season either with a "best case" being the 2019 season.

I am concerned that the Kings first high pick since 2009 hasn't seemed to even skate since being drafted and didn't even do all of the combine drills pre-draft. He needs to be an impact player ASAP or what's the point of keeping this core together?

I know I joked about Deadmarsh/Allison but here we are with "just wait a little longer: he'll be fine"
 
I'm not worried about the injury itself. I'm more concerned with that our development staff hasn't had anytime to work with him on the ice and on his skating. And I'm afraid he's going to have a really slow start to the season this year. He hasn't skated all summer, hasn't worked with our development staff that much and didn't participate in the world juniors showcase all of which I think he would've really benefited for the upcoming season. I think the only reason that we shouldn't be too concerned is that he only just turned 18 a couple of weeks ago so there's no need to push him that much at the moment.
 
I think we are jumping the gun a bit here by calling Vilardi injury prone or to have long-term injury issues. Kid is young, and there is absolutely no reason for him to make this roster this year or even next year. Our 1 and 2C slots are already full, and there are a lot of players competing for the 3C and 4C positions (Dowd, Kempe, Shore, Lewis, Andreoff etc.)
 
Bad back at 17/18 isn't exciting, nor is a bad hip.

Visions of Daze and Allison dancing--with a limp--through my head...
 
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