2017 NHL Draft: Grant McCagg's Top 10 (Updated on-the-fly, not intermittently)

[thrillhous]

11 points by Vesalainen moved him from the 20s to 3rd overall.

No one should take his list seriously.

I agree. One is left with two possible conclusions: that they hadn't seen enough of the player before the U18 tourney to establish a baseline for him or they are making radical changes to their rankings just to get buzz and hits. Either way I can't take them seriously.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I don't think Grant's rankings are ridiculous. The draft is really just that wide open. Some players are putting up dominant performances at the U18's, while favourites for the whole year are doing nothing (Necas, Liljegren). Are you not supposed to notice that or something?

 

[gretskidoo]

no Petterson or Vilardi in the top 10?

How many points did they have at the u18s? Exactly! ****ing scrubs.

 

[Bloomfield*]

I believe 4th rounder toni rajala has the u18 scoring record

 

[kelsier]

Absolutely loved McKeen's rankings last year while I myself followed closely how the year developed and been a fan since.

As for critique of lifting someone like Vesalainen from bottom to the top, I get both sides. I've watched all his games in the U18 and he has been head and shoulders above his peers (other forwards). Of course it raises questions like does one tournament justify such a lift? If there's no certain answer to be made you have to dig deeper. The scouts are more aware of the background of each player and generally know more about the reasons why someone's year wasn't on par with expectations. For someone like me who's usually keeping close eye on the drafts and prospects, 2017 is an exception to the rule and the reason why I rather sustain personal insights or opinions.

From blue-white (Finnish) point of view it would be nothing short of great having two Finns in the top 5 or top 3 even, but I'm not expecting that at all. Heiskanen has a pedigree that you can hardly argue against, no matter where you slot him and the kid passes eye-test without a flaw. With the rest of the Finns (including Vesalainen), it'd still be like filling a lottery ticket to make an accurate mock draft once the order has been concluded.

While having a weak peak there's a lot of talent in the draft and it's wide spread. Looks as if there's a bigger chance of landing elite talent from mid half of the first round than in many previous years.

Anyway, it's a nice list and I've a lot of trust and faith in Grant's assessments. Keep up the good work!

 

[Whileee]

April 18, 2017:

Interesting list.

Do you think Rasmussen will stay a top 10 pick on draft day? Do NHL scouts really like him?

 

[kunekune]

I think you made a mistake in your typing of #3. Did you mean Timothy Liljegren?

Liljegren is barely first round material.

And a lot people even in here have told this. Just because he had 2 superb 10 sec twitter videos last year, does not mean that he is a good player.

 

[TT1]

im surprised at Vesalainen being #3 because i remember reading that you didnt like him previously.. but yea his u18 showing has been very impressive.

Rasmussen and Mittelstadt are ND's for me that high (never been a fan of those 2), i like Thomas but i dont have him going that high.

 

[Esko6]

So Vesalainen has a pretty disappointing season and drops out of the first round in most lists. Then he has a great U18 thus far and bounces to third overall. Is this draft really this weak or are the scouts just completely lost this year? Heiskanen is a good prospect too, but he does not excite me in the least, he can be a great all-around player but seems like a unambitious pick at second overall.

 

[WTFMAN99]

My opinions change on a whim - That's what I get out of daily draft ranking updates.

"Ryan McLeod is #3!!!" "Matthews is #2 behind Laine!!!"

Patrick at 5 now? Ehhhhh. Hard pass.

 

[jnk96]

So Vesalainen has a pretty disappointing season and drops out of the first round in most lists. Then he has a great U18 thus far and bounces to third overall. Is this draft really this weak or are the scouts just completely lost this year? Heiskanen is a good prospect too, but he does not excite me in the least, he can be a great all-around player but seems like a unambitious pick at second overall.

I think it's the lack of elite talent paired with the high amount of talented players in the first round. So it eventually comes down to preference - if you think Patrick and Hischier might become Nugent-Hopkins-level second-line players in the NHL and Heiskanen can be a Ristolainen-level D-man. Do you pick the center or the D-man?

(Those comparisons have nothing to do with player types but are simply used to illustrate the kind of decisions scouts and GMs might be making here.)

 

[CanaFan]

I believe 4th rounder toni rajala has the u18 scoring record

And that was factored in when Rajala was passed over in rounds 1-3. Yet Vesalainen was regarded as a 1st rounder long before the U18's.

Tournaments aren't everything and Rajala's late draft position shows scouts know that. But they aren't *nothing* either. It's all a piece of the puzzle.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I like Thomas but don't think he's a top 10

 

[Hockeyisl1fe]

Why is everyone laughing at his McLeod ranking from last year? The guy has 21p in 12 playoff games... haven't seen him playing, but seems like a fine prospect to me.

 

[Grant McCagg]

Interesting list.

Do you think Rasmussen will stay a top 10 pick on draft day? Do NHL scouts really like him?

Pretty sure..about once a decade a 6-5+ center comes along who is capable of scoring 35+ goals...the scouts really like this kid...only one I've come across that aren't high on him are advanced stats aficionados.

He has tremendous upside..good skater with a strong stride, hard to play against, good hands in tight, willing to go to the dirty areas, really good shot, smart.

 

[Grant McCagg]

My opinions change on a whim - That's what I get out of daily draft ranking updates.

"Ryan McLeod is #3!!!" "Matthews is #2 behind Laine!!!"

Patrick at 5 now? Ehhhhh. Hard pass.

I'm not sure why people have the impression that I change the draft rankings daily...I make tweaks every week instead of waiting to do it monthly...for a variety of reasons. I use a combination of methods to do my list..including the input of some very high-ranking scouts...if I see a couple of games from a player that impresses me one way or another and get verification from other scouts about what I see...I don't wait for a month to alter the rankings. I make changes in the top ten or 20 some weeks...changes in the 20-60 range other weeks..depends o who I see and the input I get..including from coaches I interview.

Some players I don't see much of until later in the year as an example..like Samberg who is now in the USHL...so obviously his rankings have changed the more he's been seen..and he's moving up. Why wait a month if you think your ranking is off? It' a unique way of doing it..and offers subscribers an opportunity to see just how my rankings are shaped through the year.

Vesalainen being moved to the top 5 has nothing to do with his point totals..that would be silly. It has everything to so with the physical upside I see...and the four NHL scouts I trust very much have seen overseas..we are in contact throughout the tournament by text. they all agree that his physical attributes are t the very top of the draft. One NHL scout noted to me after his first game, and I agreed wholeheartedly..that he was "better than all of the guys in Ontario"..which automatically put him in the top 8. He proceeded to play only better..including vs. Canada...and he moves up my rankings further...including ahead of Glass hen it was quite apparent head-to-head that his sie/skating/puck skills package was clearly better....those are such important attributes in projecting a player's NHL upside.

I try to approach my rankings as a head scout would...I see and evaluate as many players as I can..discuss it with several high-ranking NHL scouts on a continuous basis...add in their input and make changes where necessary.

 

[Grant McCagg]

I like Thomas but don't think he's a top 10

Three NHL scouts insisted to me this week that he is.....and his coach would disagree with you..played him in EVERY situation in the playoffs..absolutely loves him..and he knows hockey players.

Thomas does EVERYTHING well..his smarts and pucks skills are quite elite, great skater, superb defensively, good on draws..very much projects to be a great two-way second-line center..that's pretty valuable.

 

[Grant McCagg]

So Vesalainen has a pretty disappointing season and drops out of the first round in most lists. Then he has a great U18 thus far and bounces to third overall. Is this draft really this weak or are the scouts just completely lost this year? Heiskanen is a good prospect too, but he does not excite me in the least, he can be a great all-around player but seems like a unambitious pick at second overall.

In most lists where? I don't know of a single NHL scout that EVER dropped him out of their first round. Even when he was struggling vs. men he was still considerd 15-25 for most.

You had to really consider the entire situation. a 17-year old Finn playing in the SHL..where the preference is to play vets. Didn't get an offensive role, never found his confidence..playing aginst men.

Then he goes to the u-20 where the entire team is a gong show with a coach who was so clueless he used Valimaki on the PK instead of the PP...finally ends up in the Finnish men's league where by now he's been playing little and lost his confidence..think he's going to find it versus men at his age?

Just the fact he was playing in the mens' leagues all year at his age was impressive..regardless of whether he scored. He dropped in my rankings because I wondered about his finish...but the entire time I told myself the U-18s would be so very important for him as we'd actually got to see him vs. his peers..and see if he could indeed finish...well..he can!!

there were no issues with his skating, work ethic, smarts or puck skills going in..what folks were wondering about was his ability to finish and create offence as he hasn't been able to display it much vs. men Well..he's shown that he indeed has that ability.

And it's not like he has only looked good at the U-18. Vesalainen..if you look back through the videos on my site...had two two-goal games when he went back to Finnish junior where he made some dynamite plays....he had already found his confidence back in junior at the end of March/early April and was playing terrifically

I maintained for the past two months for different reasons that the U-18's would be ultra important for both Liljegren and Vesalainen....and Vesa has stepped up to the plate. His skill package for his size is second to none.

 

[lakai17]

Grant,

Where do you rank Popugaev and Andersson today? specifically if you may.

We both know scouts are snoozing on Popugaev.

 

[Grant McCagg]

Grant,

Where do you rank Popugaev and Andersson today? specifically if you may.

We both know scouts are snoozing on Popugaev.

Andersson is 15-20 now because some others have stepped up...tells you how deep the top 20 is..I like all of them now.

I really liked Popugev early on..but wow..he was horsecrap the second half...and the stats reflected that. Had 20 goals in 26 games...scored 9 in his last 45! Issues with character, work ethic, skating, in-tight battling...everyone wonders why a playoff contender like MJ would trade him....not good reports off ice. A good bet to be playing in the KHL in a couple of years by most accounts. I've moved him out of my top 40...

 

[Ovechkin962]

Hi Grant,

A bit off topic, but will you do a preliminary 2018 list soon? That would be awesome!

 

[Grant McCagg]

Hi Grant,

A bit off topic, but will you do a preliminary 2018 list soon? That would be awesome!

Probably not. First things first!

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

I respect anyone who's out there seeing the players themselves. I think those guys see things that most of us miss, and they do an important, valuable job. I think Grant McCagg is one of those guys.

But, man: this list is wacky. And not just a little. If it ends up this way, I'd be happy to come back and eat my words someday. But, I mean... is it really going to turn out this way? I'm just not convinced. There's going off the board, and then there's buying an entirely new board.

 

[Daximus]

Andersson is 15-20 now because some others have stepped up...tells you how deep the top 20 is..I like all of them now.

I really liked Popugev early on..but wow..he was horsecrap the second half...and the stats reflected that. Had 20 goals in 26 games...scored 9 in his last 45! Issues with character, work ethic, skating, in-tight battling...everyone wonders why a playoff contender like MJ would trade him....not good reports off ice. A good bet to be playing in the KHL in a couple of years by most accounts. I've moved him out of my top 40...

100% agree on Popugayev. He apparently asked for a trade last year as well. MJ dealt him because he kept asking to be traded. They got a decent kid in Almeida in return though.

 

[Whileee]

Pretty sure..about once a decade a 6-5+ center comes along who is capable of scoring 35+ goals...the scouts really like this kid...only one I've come across that aren't high on him are advanced stats aficionados.

He has tremendous upside..good skater with a strong stride, hard to play against, good hands in tight, willing to go to the dirty areas, really good shot, smart.

Sort of like a better skating Adam Lowry with better hands?