2017 Draft discussion- Sabres pick 8th. Part 2

[Reddawg]

Timothy Liljegren will be there at 8. If not we will get a steal at 8.

Yeah, I'd honestly prefer it if he wasn't there as that would mean Makar, Heiskanen, Glass or Vilardi slipped to us.

 

[Ace]

I think there is enough of a gap between Makar/Heiskanen and the next tier of D that I'd hope we'd trade down if they're both gone. After the top 2 can you really say you'd care between Liljegren, Valimaki and Brannstrom? One or two or all three will be there in the middle of the round.

 

[Jame]

I think there is enough of a gap between Makar/Heiskanen and the next tier of D that I'd hope we'd trade down if they're both gone. After the top 2 can you really say you'd care between Liljegren, Valimaki and Brannstrom? One or two or all three will be there in the middle of the round.

I expect our front office to do their due diligence and know more than what we see on the ice. And with that information, I expect them to choose the best fit... not trade down and allow other teams to choose for them.

 

[Husko]

The Makar/Heiskanen debate is one I have frequently in my head. On one hand, Heiskanen seems like a so much safer player. Is he a lock to be at least Risto? Maybe even a more consistent version? He just does everything right, plays a calm cool, collected game, and seems like someone you can probably pencil in as a permanent top 4 as early as 2018. That said, players, even the "safe" ones, bust all the time. So of course there's still risk.

With Makar, yeah the risk is way higher. But not taking him also has another kind of risk. What if he turns out amazing? What if he really is the next Karlsson? What if you're taking Alex Pietrangelo over Karlsson by taking Heiskanen over Makar? Still getting a solid player, but missing out on a generational one.

 

[Jim Carr's Rug]

Ok, I'm bored so I'm taking a prediction shot at the top 10 or so.
I could very well be overvaluing defense here but I think the recency bias of Poille's draft strategy, defenseman trade value, Vegas D-poaching and the awakening to PMDs driving offense through zone exits and entries significantly influence the way the board falls this year.

1- Devils: Patrick
- Patrick seems like his all around game fits perfectly with the Devils philosophy. They picked Zacha and McCleod in the last 2 drafts and Hischier may be more suited to transition to wing if needed, but I don't think they can pass up a potential #1 center with the higher floor.

2- Flyers: Hischier
- F'ing lottery gift. This team is loaded. Ugh.

3. Stars: Heiskanen
- They have some nice young D but drafted forward heavy the last 2 years. Replenish. They see Heiskanen (LHD) as a perfect compliment to Honka.

4. Avs: Makar
- They need D badly. I guess the wildcard would be if they have deals for Duchene or Landeskog but the trading of O'Reilly didn't work out and they need butts in the seats. Makar is Barrie's eventual replacement.

5. Canucks: Glass
- Glass has fantastic 5v5 numbers, all the smarts, all the physical tools, plenty of upside, plays just down the road and is viewed as BPA. I don't think he gets past Vancouver.

6. Knights: Villardi
- BPA. Foot speed is the easiest knock to overcome.

7. Coyotes: Liljegren
- They need D. Mittlestadt is tempting but Chayka is not deterred by Liljegren's draft year.

8. Sabres: Valmaki
- Could be a perfect partner for Risto down the road. Finish towers or some nonsense.

9. Red Wings: Mittlestadt
- I think they're going into the draft planning on taking Pettersson, who seems like a quintessential Red Wing. They are shocked to see Mittlestadt there and happily take a natural center.

10. Florida: Necas
- They see him as perfect fit as a top-6 RW.

11. Kings: Pettersson
- BPA by a long shot. Total steal.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

The Ducks issue is having a bad defenseman with a NMC.

Regardless they still would have had to expose Vatanen or Manson.

Assuming the Sabres acquire a top pairing LHD...

Defense:
Ristolainen
Acquired top pairing/4 LHD
McCabe
Antipin
Beaulieu
Bogosian
Guhle

Ok, so Bogo is likely not long for WNY. But still, Guhle is going to be a regular on the defense by 2018-2019 opening night if not this upcoming season whether it's opening night or halfway thru the season. No chance he needs more then one year of seasoning in Rochester. He nearly made the Sabres the past two training Camps. So even taking out Bogosian, there are 6 dmen who will be here long term...Risto, acquired D, McCabe, Antipin, Guhle and Beaulieu. Obviously we don't know the identity of that acquired dman but the ages of the other 5 range from being born in 1992. Antipin and Beaulieu (the "grey beards") and the youngest in Guhle, born in 1997. So that means 5/6ths of the D is going to be 26 at the oldest at the start of 2018/2019.

Now let's look at the forwards

Eichel, Reinhart, RoR, Kane, Okposo, Larsson, Girgensons, Foligno, Moulson, Ennis, Carrier, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Smith, Nylander

Kane is likely gone by 18-19. Moulson and Ennis hopefully by then too. The only bona fide top 6 forwards in the pipeline are Eichel, Reinhart, RoR, Okposo. And of course Nylander assuming he pans out. That's 5. I assume one of Girgs/Larsson is also not here long term. Foligno may be priced out. Regarldess Girgs, Larsson and Foligno are firmly bottom 6 forwards. I get the whole rolling three lines but I want forwards capable of scoring 15-20 goals on my top 3 lines. And once Kane is gone there are only 5 of those. And among our youngsters not named Nylander, none are surefire nhlers. The best of the bunch imo is Baptiste and I think he'll be a ~15 goal scorer (which is a fine player). But being at #8 we have the chance to add a quality forward. In fact this draft is loaded at center. Players possibly available at 8 include Glass, Tippett, Mittelstadt, Pettersson. If Kane isn't here long term then drafting his replacement may be the best chance we have of acquiring a young 20-25+ goal scorer.

Putting it this way, 2017 is hopefully the last time we are ever picking top 8/10 for a long long time. Dmen take longer then forwards to develop. By the time a guy like Liljegren or Foote or Valimaki are ready it will likely be 2020 or maybe even 2021. By then Okposo is entering his mid 30s, Eichel and RoR are costing nearly 16 mil and our window may have been open for a few years already. I would absolutely love to add Heiskanen or Makar. Both look to be legit #1 guys. But we need to face facts, we aren't getting either. Both are gone before we pick barring a trade up. With the addition of Beaulieu we know we have 5/6ths of our blueline for 2018 and beyond set in stone assuming Antipin adapts. If management feels Glass will be a legit 60 point forward or Tippett a 30 goal scorer then I'm all for drafting a forward. This team needs help on D yes...but we need help NOW. I don't want to wait for a top 4 dman through the draft. There are forwards nearly every draft establishing themselves as top liners or top 6ers by their D+2 season. I highly doubt Liljegren is going to be a top 4 dman by 2018 or 2019. But there's a chance Glass or Tippett can be top 9 possibly top 6 contributors by then. We also need help scoring. We have holes all over, so if our team who finished bottom 6 in offense loses its best goal scorer well now we need to replace that. Our offense is that bad where preferably we are adding another top 6 forward to our group up front and keeping Kane, let alone moving Kane and just filling his hole.

You always go BPA. In 2013 the Sabres were absolutely loaded at D, now its a weakness. In 2011 the Sabres were absolutely devoid of centers...now we have 2 proven high end 1Cs with another center looking to establish himself as a 1C also. It's always cyclical, a strength today can be a weakness in 2 years. If Botterill feels Glass or Tippett is the best fit over the 3rd or 4th ranked dman then so be it. We are that bad where we need help on every part of the roster.

 

[Team Cozens]

I expect our front office to do their due diligence and know more than what we see on the ice. And with that information, I expect them to choose the best fit... not trade down and allow other teams to choose for them.

#8 to VGN for Shea Theodore??

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

#8 to VGN for Shea Theodore??

Is that a good deal for us? I am not sure.

 

[1972]

I can see why some want Valimaki at 8, but to me he just doesn't have the look as a top 10 pick but more of a mid to late first. He's probably the type of player you will be able to get at 20 in next years draft. I just don't see him having as much room to grow as some of the other players.

 

[Jim Bob]

#8 to VGN for Shea Theodore??

How is Vegas getting Shea Theodore? He is exempt from the expansion draft.

 

[CaseyMitts37]

How is Vegas getting Shea Theodore? He is exempt from the expansion draft.

It is rumored they will get Theodore if they select Stoner and keep their hands of Vatanen/Manson

 

[Jim Bob]

I can see why some want Valimaki at 8, but to me he just doesn't have the look as a top 10 pick but more of a mid to late first. He's probably the type of player you will be able to get at 20 in next years draft. I just don't see him having as much room to grow as some of the other players.

Personally, I wonder if Valimaki could be comparable to Provorov down the road.

They had eerily similar draft seasons in the WHL.

 

[Jim Bob]

Wow....

I can relate to this.

 

[Jame]

I can see why some want Valimaki at 8, but to me he just doesn't have the look as a top 10 pick but more of a mid to late first. He's probably the type of player you will be able to get at 20 in next years draft. I just don't see him having as much room to grow as some of the other players.

Of the big 5 D (who I believe will all go in the top half of the draft)... Valimaki is the Highest Floor/Lowest Ceiling. He's safe. There's value in that.

 

[Reddawg]

There's now talk of several three-way deals in place with Vegas, making me start to really wonder if we'll be drafting at #8 at all. Kane to Vegas and #8 somewhere else for a defenseman would make a whole lot of sense.

 

[truthbluth]

I can see why some want Valimaki at 8, but to me he just doesn't have the look as a top 10 pick but more of a mid to late first. He's probably the type of player you will be able to get at 20 in next years draft. I just don't see him having as much room to grow as some of the other players.

You just described Thomas Chabot from 2015. Not that I am promising Valimaki will have the same growth that Chabot has had on his defensive play, but he might.

My only concern with Valimaki, and it may be overblown, but he has never had a good tournament, or playoffs. Does his style of play work when the intensity goes up? Maybe he's just been on ****** teams, but I would have liked to see him elevate his play at least once.

I still probably take him at 8 if Liljegren is gone given the relative value of offensive defensemen.

 

[1972]

You just described Thomas Chabot from 2015. Not that I am promising Valimaki will have the same growth that Chabot has had on his defensive play, but he might.

My only concern with Valimaki, and it may be overblown, but he has never had a good tournament, or playoffs. Does his style of play work when the intensity goes up? Maybe he's just been on ****** teams, but I would have liked to see him elevate his play at least once.

I still probably take him at 8 if Liljegren is gone given the relative value of offensive defensemen.

Thomas Chabot's skating is like superhuman. To me, Valimaki is a player who is good at everything but doesn't really possess that elite quality to his game that is going to make him a star player in the NHL. You watch Heiskanen in the U18's and you see a guy who thinks the game and skates at an elite level, Makar and Liljegren have that elite game breaking skill and skating. I just am not seeing that with Valimaki, like jame said he is a very safe pick.

I'm not saying I am completely against him at 8, but my preference would be to take a guy who brings more dynamic qualities because I believe we can find a lot of what Valimaki brings in the early second or even next years draft if we are in the back half of the first.

 

[truthbluth]

Thomas Chabot's skating is like superhuman. To me, Valimaki is a player who is good at everything but doesn't really possess that elite quality to his game that is going to make him a star player in the NHL. You watch Heiskanen in the U18's and you see a guy who thinks the game and skates at an elite level, Makar and Liljegren have that elite game breaking skill and skating. I just am not seeing that with Valimaki, like jame said he is a very safe pick.

I'm not saying I am completely against him at 8, but my preference would be to take a guy who brings more dynamic qualities because I believe we can find a lot of what Valimaki brings in the early second or even next years draft if we are in the back half of the first.

It wasn't in his draft year. He was a very good skater, described as smooth, but his skating continued to improve.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/06/21/who-you-calling-weak-draft-class-variance/

This is an interesting article that looks at the idea of weak vs strong draft classes.

 

[Sabre the Win]

Makar than Heiskanen than Lilegren/Tippet are my choices at 8. One or two I think will be there.

If we lose Kane, having Tippet and Nylander on the wings in the near future could be huge.

 

[Jame]

Come out of the draft with one of Makar, Heiskanen, Liljegren, Valimaki, Brannstrom... and I'll be happy... regardless of the circumstances around it (where they were taken, what we traded, up or down, etc).

Failure to get one of them... I'll be pissed (again, 2016).

 

[Jim Bob]

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/bakers-top-31-2-nico-hischier/c-289904372

Baker's Top 31: #2 Nico Hischier

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/news/bakers-top-31-1-nolan-patrick/c-289908360

Baker's Top 31: #1 Nolan Patrick

 

[AustonsNostrils]

 

[1972]

^ they either look like a genius or a laughing stock

 

[Reddawg]

Now that's what I call out on a limb.