2017-18 Roster Talk: Part Ten

[Magua]

I misread your post and it made me think of this.

Provorov is the head
Sanheim and Myers are the arms
Ghost and Morin are the legs

Game over.

This Forbidden One must have an awful limp.

 

[Striiker]

This Forbidden One must have an awful limp.

Morin kneels.

 

[Magua]

Morin kneels.

Where's Hagg in all this?

 

[pit]

Where's Hagg in all this?

Around back.

Ass of the Forbidden One.

 

[Striiker]

Where's Hagg in all this?

 

[Hockeyholic]

My guess is the new owners don't want to see Coyotes level attendance. Thus, they probably have Hextall on notice to improve the product.

 

[CodyTheHuman]

A friend of mine used to collect Kuribohs.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

I wish I had job security like Lappy.

 

[Striiker]

A friend of mine used to collect Kuribohs.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Ryan Whitney said the Flyers are fun to watch.

 

[Stizzle]

Can we just chalk this up to factors such as bad D partners and tough minutes?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Can we just chalk this up to factors such as bad D partners and tough minutes?

Definitely not.

With that being said, the biggest factor in just how poor some of those numbers are to me is deployment. Provorov should be a modern example of a defensive defenseman, but as we all know, he's been paired with the most passive partners possible. I don't think he will ever work particularly well in that setting. If you put him in a pair where he's the guy to cover for an aggressive partner (as we've seen in his time with Gostisbehere), he's going to look better across the board. He'll never be a huge point producer, though.

Please note that I'm not saying he would be at 6+ CorsiRel or anything, just that we're looking at metrics from samples where he's consistently miscast regardless of the quality of his partners.

 

[Tripod]

Definitely not.

With that being said, the biggest factor in just how poor some of those numbers are to me is deployment. Provorov should be a modern example of a defensive defenseman, but as we all know, he's been paired with the most passive partners possible. I don't think he will ever work particularly well in that setting. If you put him in a pair where he's the guy to cover for an aggressive partner (as we've seen in his time with Gostisbehere), he's going to look better across the board. He'll never be a huge point producer, though.

Please note that I'm not saying he would be at 6+ CorsiRel or anything, just that we're looking at metrics from samples where he's consistently miscast regardless of the quality of his partners.

Not sure I agree with this.

He has been handed bottom pairing Dmen and asked to match up against top lines and win the matchups. One man can only do so much. Werenski plays with Jones. Hanifan gets sheltered matchups.

As for the points, once again wrong:

Since entering the league, Provy is 16th in ES Points for Dmen. He is 5th this year. His points will be suppressed due to not being on the top PP unit(Ghost), not because of him directly. Sort of like how Couturier has more PP points in the 22 games this year than he had all of last year....and Couts has not been on the top unit all season either. And just like how Couturier is 3rd in ES points this year.

 

[Lindberg]

Provorov certainly has faired better than Ghost scoring wise last season and this season but a few goals this season for him I'd chalk up to a lot of luck. Ghost just doesn't seem to be getting any luck and having a tough time getting his shot through.

 

[deadhead]

I don't think it's luck at all, Provorov is more physical and has a higher hockey IQ than Ghost, and his wrist shot is just as good.
Ghost tries to force the action, Provorov is more patient and picks his spots.
For all the blather about this "conservative" scheme, Provorov and Sanheim frequently attack the net.

Even strength:
Ghost 1-6, last year 5-11, rookie 9-15
Provorov 4-7, last year 6-19
Remember, Ghost is almost 4 years older than Provorov

 

[FLYguy3911]

It's easy to point to the tough competition as the reason he doesn't have good metrics, but there is another side to it...he gets to play with one of the best lines in hockey ~45% of the time.

As for partners, Hagg hasn't been good, but surprisingly MacDonald was this year when he was in the lineup and the numbers still weren't pretty.

Provorov is exceptional in his own zone and defending the blueline and that is where he gets a lot of praise, and rightfully so, he's awesome there, but there is a lot of ice before the DZ that he doesn't dominate in. He's not a big threat in transition and he hasn't shown that he can trap teams in the offensive zone via the cycle, hence the below average possession numbers. Maybe it will come in time, maybe it won't. I had questions about this watching him in Juniors so I'm more reluctant to have blind faith than maybe others would.

As for the points, he's going to produce raw numbers just by the volume of minutes he plays and from the players that he plays with. I don't like saying a guy is a lucky point producer. At some point you have to acknowledge a guy can produce, but his offense is still based very much around point shots. Look no further than his last 2 goals. If you want maybe a truer measure of his offensive contributions look at his PP numbers. Only Severson has a worse P/60 for Dmen with at least 40 mins of PP time this year and that 1 point was a secondary assist with the top unit when Ghost was hurt. Over the last 2 seasons for Dmen with 100 minutes or more of PP time, Provorov ranks 79 out of 81 qualifiers in P/60. If you want to limit it to guys who have played as much as he has (174 minutes) he's last. And last year he got a boost by playing on the top unit for a few games (3 of his 5 PP points came on the top unit).

I agree with Jojo that if he's going to play in a 1st pairing role, he probably shouldn't be the best offensive guy on the pair, or at the very least he should play with an an established play driver like Gudas. But it's pretty clear that Hakstol's main objective of his top pair is to prevent the other team from scoring and not necessarily "outscore" the opponent and that is why his most common partners are MacDonald and Hagg. Hakstol doesn't trust Ghost and for whatever reason he doesn't deem Gudas reliable enough to play with Ivan.

 

[deadhead]

Provorov doesn't seem comfortable on the PP, maybe because his first instincts is to play defense, and only force the action when the opportunity presents - but on the PP you have one minute to make things happen, you can't wait for something to open up, you have to force the PK unit to make a mistake, get out of position and provide a scoring opportunity. Ghost excels on the PP because his best quality is his ability to force the action, which gets him in trouble at ES, but is perfectly suited to driving the PP.

When Provorov does attack in the O-zone, he's a good skater, he's strong with good hands so he's not easy to strip, and he has a very good wrist shot. I think he'll score more as he gets more comfortable, we're already seeing that this year. Scoring from the point isn't "luck," there's a skill in getting a shot on net, through traffic with some velocity on it. Some guys just softly shoot it, some fire away but miss everything. The best point defensemen time their shots, finding a lane to avoid the block but just when the goalie's eyes have been distracted by traffic, creating rebound opportunities if not a goal.

 

[Lindberg]

I don't think it's luck at all, Provorov is more physical and has a higher hockey IQ than Ghost, and his wrist shot is just as good.
Ghost tries to force the action, Provorov is more patient and picks his spots.
For all the blather about this "conservative" scheme, Provorov and Sanheim frequently attack the net.

Even strength:
Ghost 1-6, last year 5-11, rookie 9-15
Provorov 4-7, last year 6-19
Remember, Ghost is almost 4 years older than Provorov

The Canucks game was a solid example of a fairly lucky goal.


or this one


They both get to the net and such but I wouldn't particularly call them good shots. He's got a solid shot though. The videos don't seem to want to stream but I'm not going to look into it, just search for them on NHL.com

He's definitely got some solid goals though over this season and past season though.

 

[Rebels57]

Provorov is really good.

 

[CodyTheHuman]

He thought they were cute. He was an interesting guy.

 

[Appleyard]

Giroux-Couturier-Voracek now at 21 5v5 GF on-ice together... in 23 games.



Only 14 more to get amongst the 20 most productive trios of the decade.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Here's my hot take. Filppula is new PEB - toolsy player passing eyetest, thus fooling such an astute talent evaluator as Hak, but he lacks hockey iq to be effective on either side of the puck.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

He’s not a center. He’s not good defensively nor facilitating offense from the center spot.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Here's my hot take. Filppula is new PEB - toolsy player passing eyetest, thus fooling such an astute talent evaluator as Hak, but he lacks hockey iq to be effective on either side of the puck.

Awful. They should check his bank account. The guy looks like he’s throwing games. No one is really talking about that play where he passed it right to an Islander when they had a dangerous rush going. Of course they came right back after that and tied the game.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Filppula can be useful for secondary scoring, playing the wing, at ~12-13 minutes a night. Unfortunately, he's one of Hakstol's go to guys, playing center, and getting 17+ minutes a night.

He was 9-0 on face offs today, but beyond that, he's not a center. Let him take draws and have him shift to wing, at the very least.