2017-18 Roster Talk: Part Ten

[hatcher]

oh hey, matt read is waived again

I'm gonna throw a party now. Get the shit off this team. Our identity is just like how Read plays. Flat.

 

[deadhead]

Manning, MacDonald, and Hagg all in the lineup at once...

Not to mention Lehtera and Weise...

You know what this says to me? We're absolutely going to go on a winning streak.

Then they'll all stay in, even after everyone is healthy.

Truth is, shuffling between Manning, Hagg, MacDonald and Morin (this year) makes little difference, other than MacDonald playing like he did at the beginning of the year. Sanheim and Ghost (only 6 ES points and 1 goal) picking it up offensively is far more important.

Same way shuffling between Leier, Raffl, Weise, Lehtera and Read doesn't move the needle.
Patrick putting it together however, could have a huge impact the second half of this year, if he settles in at 2C, Filppula is now your 3C and we have decent depth again.

It's nice to fantasize that Lindblom, MV or Martel will come up and give you 30 points after Christmas, but 10-15 points over the last 44 games is more likely.
They're more likely to have a substantial impact next year, when they upgrade the bottom six.

 

[Magua]

Some interesting stuff I figured that some of you not on twitter might find interesting.

Flyers, as we know, are a pretty decent shot suppressing team. But the generating isn't there, which leads to the play to not lose games we know and love.

But look at all that chemistry! (chemistry is in red, right?).

The only pair/line with greens across the board is.......Provorov-Ghost. I want it NOW!

 

[Curufinwe]

Forward point projections after 20 games:

NHL.com - Stats

Voracek 103
Couturier 90
Giroux 86
Simmonds 49
Filppula 41
Konecny 29
Weal 28 (79 games)
Patrick 26 (73 games)
Laughton 21
Weise 14 (79 games)
Lehtera 12 (75 games)
Leier 9 (80 games)
Raffl 0

 

[RANKKA]

Flyers fans: Would you give up Sanheim or Hagg + a first for JvR?
-Eklund

this guy finds new level of stupidity every time i see him open his mouth

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Flyers fans: Would you give up Sanheim or Hagg + a first for JvR?
-Eklund

this guy finds new level of stupidity every time i see him open his mouth

 

[BillDineen]

Flyers fans: Would you give up Sanheim or Hagg + a first for JvR?
-Eklund

this guy finds new level of stupidity every time i see him open his mouth

Seems consistent with trading Schenn. What an idiot.

 

[FLYguy3911]

We're 20 games into the season and we can now start to make some sense of the metrics so I made some tables for those interested. These are 5v5 and are adjusted for score.

Overall

	%	RANK
CF%	50.56	14th
FF%	50.65	13th
SF%	51.76	10th
SCF%	49.30	17th
HDCF%	49.49	20th
GF%	56.36	4th
xGF%	51.70	11th
PDO	101.2	10th
xPDO	100.24	8th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Offense

	RATE	RANK
CF/60	54.67	23rd
FF/60	40.88	24th
SF/60	30.38	19th
SCF/60	24.65	28th
HDCF/60	9.36	28th
GF/60	2.18	25th
xGF/60	2.15	21st
SH%	7.16	24th

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Defense

	RATE	RANK
CA/60	53.45	2nd
FA/60	39.82	3rd
SA/60	28.32	2nd
SCA/60	25.35	1st
HDCA/60	9.56	5th
GA/60	1.68	1st*
xGA/60	2.01	5th
SV%	94.05	1st

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*next closest is 2.01!!!

As you could probably imagine, there's a lot of low event hockey when the Flyers take the ice which often leads to the boring on-ice product. Suffocating defense in their own zone and not creating much in the other team's zone. The stat that looks out of whack is GF%. Currently 4th in the league, but it outperforms the others. They are the toughest team to score on 5v5 by a wide margin. It will most likely regress, but even so, they will still be in good shape. Need to find a way to generate more offense and more specifically, offense from the bottom 9. The WOWY stats for the Couturier line are hilarious.

 

[Lindberg]

The flyers defense has been playing pretty well to my eyeballs so to me it makes sense those stats look fine (I'm sure it'll regress). The offense is brutal which I'm sure is from a lack of scoring from lines 2 and 3.

I do have an interesting thought when it comes to stats even though I'm so not sure how one could accurately do this. Has anyone tried to measure the weight of a goal scored by period and with certain scores? (Like a goal in the last minute of play to break a tie is worth 60 points vice a goal scored in the first minute of the first period for 5 points). Teams obviously apply more or less pressure when they are leading/losing and it would be interesting to note to see how this effects other players scores.

 

[Firestorm]

Outsider question: What's happened to Simmonds's production?

Fantasy hockey question (if allowed): Would you rather have Wayne Simmonds or Cam Atkinson?

 

[Stizzle]

There you have it. Hak hockey summarized in a few charts. His system is even more boring than his personality. Take shots with almost no chance of actually scoring and just hope you get a lucky bounce at some point to eek out a win. He is the least progressive coach in the entire f***ing league.

I wonder what our analytics department has to say about stuff like this. We'll I guess it doesn't really matter. Hak has already publicly stated you can throw the stats out the window. Knoblauch must be flabbergasted by the stupidity of this hick coach on a daily basis.

 

[deadhead]

The problem on offense is simply talent.
The first line has no problem scoring, playing this scheme, which suggests it's not the scheme, but the talent.
Patrick stepping up will make a big difference, because he's talented enough to carry a 2nd line.
Getting just decent production out of the third and fourth lines would also help.

It will also help to stabilize the defensive pairings, the combination of having to constantly switch pairs due to injuries when most of your defensemen are inexperienced is a double whammy.

 

[deadhead]

Outsider question: What's happened to Simmonds's production?

Fantasy hockey question (if allowed): Would you rather have Wayne Simmonds or Cam Atkinson?

He's always been a hot and cold scorer, getting his goals in flurries.

However, Simmonds was dinged up for a while, but the last couple games he looks healthy again, driving the net and creating scoring chances - just a matter of time before he starts scoring goals again.

 

[Stizzle]

Outsider question: What's happened to Simmonds's production?

Fantasy hockey question (if allowed): Would you rather have Wayne Simmonds or Cam Atkinson?

He seems to be playing hurt. Although, publicly this is not acknowledged. He started off the season wonderfully, but now will not engage in the slightest in any facet of the game. No impact whatsoever.

 

[Lindberg]

He seems to be playing hurt. Although, publicly this is not acknowledged. He started off the season wonderfully, but now will not engage in the slightest in any facet of the game. No impact whatsoever.

Then why if he still playing? I'm not buying this anymore. He's not contributing at this point. (Not really directed to you, just more ranting)

 

[Magua]

Then why if he still playing? I'm not buying this anymore. He's not contributing at this point. (Not really directed to you, just more ranting)

He can play hurt without aggravating it clearly, whether it's a groin injury or whatever. Who knows if it will heal up or nag all year. If the latter that f***ing sucks for reasons short and long term, like trade value.

No one is contributing outside the Holy Trinity. His suckitude has been more scenery blending than standout. But he really needs to start scoring again, even if it's all on the PP.

 

[Lindberg]

He can play hurt without aggravating it clearly, whether it's a groin injury or whatever. Who knows if it will heal up or nag all year. If the latter that ****ing sucks for reasons short and long term, like trade value.

No one is contributing outside the Holy Trinity. His suckitude has been more scenery blending than standout. But he really needs to start scoring again, even if it's all on the PP.

Even if he can play he isn't doing anything. Even if they did scratch Simmonds for a game I'd fully expect Weise to be in the line up so I guess I'll take it.

 

[Firestorm]

So if Simmonds was on waivers, you would make a claim for him?

 

[Appleyard]

The flyers defense has been playing pretty well to my eyeballs so to me it makes sense those stats look fine (I'm sure it'll regress). The offense is brutal which I'm sure is from a lack of scoring from lines 2 and 3.

I do have an interesting thought when it comes to stats even though I'm so not sure how one could accurately do this. Has anyone tried to measure the weight of a goal scored by period and with certain scores? (Like a goal in the last minute of play to break a tie is worth 60 points vice a goal scored in the first minute of the first period for 5 points). Teams obviously apply more or less pressure when they are leading/losing and it would be interesting to note to see how this effects other players scores.

The system is surely helping the defense and inhibiting the forwards who cannot create something from nothing like Couts line can.

I mean, I do think it would be less of a problem if Giroux and Couturier were centring different lines...

the middle six right now is just not a good mesh, there are no real pure play drivers in there, and no + defensive players at 5v5! At best a couple are average at both.

Filppula is a good NZ guy and entry guy with some skill.
Simmonds is net-front+boardwork guy.
Weal is net-front+opportunist with skill to create space.
Konecny is a creative OZ player and good on the rush.
Patrick is skilled for sure and creates space in OZ, solid in DZ, but is not finished article and is not best in transition right now, and not the defensive player he was in jr. in NHL.

then final spot in top 9 is: Weise/Raffl/Lehtera... Raffl is the only one of them who is a plus defensively or a play-driver.

but yeh, the defense have all played pretty well really.

I cannot even really pick apart Manning for example. He has played decently this year, though I do think playing with Ghost or Sanheim pretty much exclusively has helped with that!


As for your question, there are score adjusted stats that account for such. Can toggle on sites like Corsica and Naturalstatrick.

 

[Rebels57]

He seems to be playing hurt. Although, publicly this is not acknowledged. He started off the season wonderfully, but now will not engage in the slightest in any facet of the game. No impact whatsoever.

He actually acknowledged it over the weekend.

Used phrases "banged up" and "body not doing what he wants it to do." Also said hes starting to feel better and blamed himself for not engaging physically as much as he should.

 

[Rebels57]

So if Simmonds was on waivers, you would make a claim for him?

Definitely

 

[Rebels57]

There you have it. Hak hockey summarized in a few charts. His system is even more boring than his personality. Take shots with almost no chance of actually scoring and just hope you get a lucky bounce at some point to eek out a win. He is the least progressive coach in the entire ****ing league.

I wonder what our analytics department has to say about stuff like this. We'll I guess it doesn't really matter. Hak has already publicly stated you can throw the stats out the window. Knoblauch must be flabbergasted by the stupidity of this hick coach on a daily basis.

These stats are extremely alarming.

But I figured they would be.

Ive already conceded that the franchise is totally hopeless with Hakstol at the helm.

What a shitty time to be a Flyers fan.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

These stats are extremely alarming.

But I figured they would be.

Ive already conceded that the franchise is totally hopeless with Hakstol at the helm.

What a ****ty time to be a Flyers fan.

It is, in a way. But I'm lucky. I was able to start watching all the time again at the beginning of the 2015-16 season after several seasons in the viewing wilderness, so it became a kind of watershed moment for me, the beginning of this rebuild in my perspective. The guy that represents us at that moment in time, for me, is Nick Schultz. That first batch of games I watched, I couldn't believe how bad he was, how lumbering he (and the rest of the defense) looked.

But now? He gone. And I keep reminding myself that we are two years on from that moment. Ghost has come in and become at least as good as we hoped he would, and very likely much better than we could have reasonably hoped. We are two years closer to that 2015 draft class doing something. Of course, the way they are promoting most guys, that means we are still 4 or 5 years from seeing them in the NHL lol. But still, we are closer. Voro is over on our side of the pond (sorry Atlas2000) and straight pimping. It's only a matter of time.

Also - Hakstok hasn't done anything to cloud anyone's judgement. We both loathe him and he is carving a path out of here, slowly but surely. Right now is a terrible time, for sure, but it's also surely temporary.

 

[boxcar65]

Apple has justified what everyone is afraid to acknowledge...Mandog is having a decent year.

Thank you, my friend. I will waive your entry fee into the Brandon Manning Fan Club.

 

[FLYguy3911]

It is kind of funny that going into the year there was such an uproar about possibly having 3 rookie defensemen in the lineup in addition to 2 young veterans. So far with 2 rookies, a 2nd year player, a 3rd year player, MacDonald missing most of the year, Ghost getting nicked up, Gudas getting hurt/kicked out of games/suspended, Manning playing regularly, Alt playing multiple games, and Will O'Neill playing a game this has arguably been the best defensive team in the NHL. And the kid who can't play defense is one of the best, if not the best, defenseman in the entire league at suppressing shots and scoring chances so far this year. Defense is all about the system, Hak has that figured out. Now if he can only find a way to muster up some offense.