2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion.

[Wiercioch2Karlsson]

The most important players on this team that we drafted and their off the top of my head draft position:

Karlsson (15th)
Stone (100+)
Hoffman (100+)
Ceci (15th)
Zbad (6th)
Smith (70-80)
Pageau (~100)

Our most promising prospects:
Chabot, White - 18th, 21st

Our top ten picks:

Cowen
Lee
Zbad

Finishing the season strong and cultivating a winning culture is infinitely more important than picking 11 vs 9. Anyway, the 9th spot is cursed for us.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The most important players on this team that we drafted and their off the top of my head draft position:

Karlsson (15th)
Stone (100+)
Hoffman (100+)
Ceci (15th)
Zbad (6th)
Smith (70-80)
Pageau (~100)

Our most promising prospects:
Chabot, White - 18th, 21st

Our top ten picks:

Cowen
Lee
Zbad

Finishing the season strong and cultivating a winning culture is infinitely more important than picking 11 vs 9. Anyway, the 9th spot is cursed for us.

It's not like picking stars late is sustainable. Winning meaningless games doesn't cultivate anything.

This is how it always goes. Late season push (winning culture cultivated!!) next season crap. Then late season push (winning culture cultivated!!)next season crap. And so on and so forth. They're must be some sort of answer as to why we go on little late season pushes (aside from last years that wasn't little). And the answer is not the winning culture that has been cultivated here the last 8 years.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

So.....we're basically picking 12th....but could fall to 14th if the lotto goes completely bonkers and Carolina & Boston win 2 of the lotto picks (extremely unlikely)...and we could win a lotto pick and get 1, 2 or 3.

Still potentially a lot of movement there.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

So.....we're basically picking 12th....but could fall to 14th if the lotto goes completely bonkers and Carolina & Boston win 2 of the lotto picks (extremely unlikely)...and we could win a lotto pick and get 1, 2 or 3.

Still potentially a lot of movement there.

It's painfully(actually painful) funny that everyone is saying after 10 or 11 there's a steep drop off in talent and hey. Look where we are hahaha

 

[Icelevel]

Updated odds shown here,

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...-nhl-draft-lottery-final-rules-and-odds-table

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I think our pick is going to be kunin or bellows. Or. Very off the board. Which is why I think it's the major likely. Riley tufte. Big.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Updated odds shown here,

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...-nhl-draft-lottery-final-rules-and-odds-table

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

2.5, 2.7 and 3.0 odds to move up and get 1, 2, 3......or 9.3% odds to fall back a spot and get pick 13.

I mean really....

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Yes, I am sure Colorado was thrilled to be playing chess if chess meant blowing their last two weeks worth of games and playing themselves out of a playoff spot.....

Ottawa had Harpur and Kostka on their NHL team.....at the same time and they still finished 12th. This isn't to mention missing their 1C, 2LW, etc etc etc. If this is a thin veiled "the team should have tanked" post, the team was given every card they needed to tank. The reality is, as bad as the Senators have been at times...they aren't terrible enough to finish in the 4-8 range.

Thanks Karlsson

 

[BondraTime]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

2.5, 2.7 and 3.0 odds to move up and get 1, 2, 3......or 9.3% odds to fall back a spot and get pick 13.

I mean really....

We don't have 9.3% odds of falling back, that would make zero sense.

We have a 3%, 3.3% and 3.7% chance of moving back

 

[Sens Rule]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

2.5, 2.7 and 3.0 odds to move up and get 1, 2, 3......or 9.3% odds to fall back a spot and get pick 13.

I mean really....

Crap!!!!! I am stoked!!! I am usually a very informed fan. But I thought it was not until next year a low drafting non/playoff team could move up in the top 3!!!!

Like I am surprised. I was not into tanking at all. But I had no idea at 12th last we could pick in the top 3!

We could pick first! Lol! I literally realized that just now!

And really I am a super-informed fan. So thought that was next season!

 

[Lehner]

I really wanted to pick McLeod, might not have that chance now.

Here's my list:
McLeod
Bean
Rubtsov (Yes, Russian, but I like em a lot)
Jost

 

[edguy]

Wonder if our new GM like Russians more than our last? Lots of good names out there this year Sergachev/Rubstov/Abramov etc..

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We don't have 9.3% odds of falling back, that would make zero sense.

We have a 3%, 3.3% and 3.7% chance of moving back

Nah, reading from the table in the article.

We have a 9.251% chance of moving back to 13th, and a 0.133% chance of dropping all the way to 14th. It's impossible to drop to 15th (as only 14 teams are in the lotto).

82.331% chance of staying at 12th.

2.500% chance at first
2.747% chance at second
3.038% chance at third

....no idea if the table is totally accurate (but the numbers do look right at a glance)

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

3% chance.

Bro, that's something. Especially 3 times.

All we need is once.

 

[Dino Tkachuk]

Than why did he wait so long to get another legitimate top 4 d?

Because if any of our highly touted top 4 DMen had turned out, it would have created a redundancy. And, most importantly, we still had one of the youngest rosters in the league. We could afford to wait, and took a calculated risk that went about as badly as possible.

That and it takes two people to get a trade done. I'm sure we were considering other options before Phaneuf but none of them worked out. This may have been Plan G for all we know...

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Bruv, I reallllllllllly want Alex Nylander or McLeod but please Nylander.

Can you imagine.... imaggggggggggineeeeee if he ends up better than his brother. Holy **** game over.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Bruv, I reallllllllllly want Alex Nylander or McLeod but please Nylander.

Can you imagine.... imaggggggggggineeeeee if he ends up better than his brother. Holy **** game over.

McLeod might be the guy who falls to us

 

[Senator Stanley]

The most important players on this team that we drafted and their off the top of my head draft position:

Karlsson (15th)
Stone (100+)
Hoffman (100+)
Ceci (15th)
Zbad (6th)
Smith (70-80)
Pageau (~100)

You're describing a bad team though, so that kind of hurts your argument.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

It's painfully(actually painful) funny that everyone is saying after 10 or 11 there's a steep drop off in talent and hey. Look where we are hahaha

It's the Senator way.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Honestly, the only way I see this team getting Brown, McLeod or Nylander is by trading up.

Really sad that we might have to trade a 2nd + possibly more to move up to a spot like 10th to draft one of these guys. The wins against Florida and Boston might come back to haunt us.

 

[Iamok]

McLeod might be the guy who falls to us

I don't see it. Dude screams this year's "surprise early pick" to me.

 

[BondraTime]

Nah, reading from the table in the article.

We have a 9.251% chance of moving back to 13th, and a 0.133% chance of dropping all the way to 14th. It's impossible to drop to 15th (as only 14 teams are in the lotto).

82.331% chance of staying at 12th.

2.500% chance at first
2.747% chance at second
3.038% chance at third

....no idea if the table is totally accurate (but the numbers do look right at a glance)

We are resetting the outcome each draw. We aren't adding them up.

We have 3 chances of moving back to 13th. first is a 3% chance of moving back.

Then we reset and have another draw, this time we have a 3.2% chance of moving back.

Then 3.7%.

Maybe (likely) I'm completely forgetting and mis-remembering my stats classes in university, but I don't see how that adds up to the two teams below us somehow having a 1/10 shot to win picks 1-3.

I mean, a 2/10 chance that seed 12-14 wins one of the top 3 picks doesn't seem right to me.

Just a heads up, I am likely wrong, I can't remember anything about my undergrad stats.

 

[Hale The Villain]

It's (3+3.2+3.7)/(100+100+100) = 9.9/300 = 0.033

3.3% chance that we move back in the draft

EDIT: Actually there's a 2.832% chance that we move up into one of the top 3 picks, and a 3.43% chance that we move back in the draft.

 

[aragorn]

It's painfully(actually painful) funny that everyone is saying after 10 or 11 there's a steep drop off in talent and hey. Look where we are hahaha

I don't think it matters that much, guys always drop from where they are ranked every draft.

McLeod might be the guy who falls to us

I think so too, or Brown or Gauthier might still be around at 12th.

Honestly, the only way I see this team getting Brown, McLeod or Nylander is by trading up.

Really sad that we might have to trade a 2nd + possibly more to move up to a spot like 10th to draft one of these guys. The wins against Florida and Boston might come back to haunt us.

You never know, any one of those guys could fall to us, someone always drops every draft. But Dorion will have a few assets to use should he want to move up like Puempel for example. It won't surprise me though if he stands pat & takes the BPA which IMO should be McLeod or Brown at 12th.

Hey, maybe we win the lottery which would be so great to stick it to the stinking Leafs. Would love to see that even more than just getting Mathews, although that would be the icing on top.

 

[BondraTime]

It's (3+3.2+3.7)/(100+100+100) = 9.9/300 = 0.033

3.3% chance that we move back in the draft

EDIT: Actually there's a 2.832% chance that we move up into one of the top 3 picks, and a 3.43% chance that we move back in the draft.

That's what I was thinking, couldn't remember how to do multiple independent probabilities, I knew those numbers were off.