Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[kxx]

Nylander took a big leap up it seems. Didn't expect that. Makes me feel a bit better about a 5-8 draft pick seeing that theres not an obvious consensus yet.

 

[Whileee]

Nylander took a big leap up it seems. Didn't expect that. Makes me feel a bit better about a 5-8 draft pick seeing that theres not an obvious consensus yet.

I think I'd still be surprised if Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Dubois and Tkachuk aren't the first 5 forwards selected.

 

[CaptainChef]

I'd throw Chychrun into that top 5 discussion as well

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Nylander is really talented player but he doesn't produce which would be a concern or at least produce maybe like he should but he has really picked it up in the playoffs so far.

He kind of reminds me a bit like Burmistrov, ton of talent but maybe plays with the puck too much.

 

[Aavco Cup]

ISS is never my favorite list

 

[garret9]

ISS is never my favorite list

Am I your favourite list?

 

[kxx]

I think I'd still be surprised if Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Dubois and Tkachuk aren't the first 5 forwards selected.

I probably placed too much value on that list then. For me it was mainly hoping someone gets high on Nylander or Tkachuk and leaves PLD to us (really cannot see the top 3 changing no matter who is drafting).

 

[Aavco Cup]

Am I your favourite list?

Show us your top thirty

 

[garret9]

Show us your top thirty

Last year I was public up to 50 I believe

This year unfortunately I may not be haha

 

[Aavco Cup]

Last year I was public up to 50 I believe

This year unfortunately I may not be haha

What have you done for us lately?

 

[wpgfishfan]

This chart doesn't seem accurate to me. As an example the odds for the worst team are 20% for the #1 pick, but only 17.5% for #2 and 15% for number 3. The math doesn't add up. If the worst team doesn't get drawn as the #1 pick, it's odds to be drawn for the #2 pick should be higher, not lower, as a lower percentage team is now out of the pool. The top team would be no lower than a 20% chance for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks. The math throughout is similarly flawed.

You are 100% accurate. Everyone is using these and they are wrong. Yes some say if doesn't take into account if you win first that's why it's less for second etc. I just look at last pick which is way off. 30th place does not have a 47.5% for 4th pick. Not even close. It is well below 40%. Last place has at least a 20% chance at each top 3 pick. So a more than 60% chance

 

[Aavco Cup]

You are 100% accurate. Everyone is using these and they are wrong. Yes some say if doesn't take into account if you win first that's why it's less for second etc. I just look at last pick which is way off. 30th place does not have a 47.5% for 4th pick. Not even close. It is well below 40%. Last place has at least a 20% chance at each top 3 pick. So a more than 60% chance

Incorrect. If you run the lottery simulater enough times. The 30th place team would end up picking 4th 47.5% of the time.

Your math is applied incorrectly.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Camp is in Winnipeg. I wonder if they are at the iceplex?

 

[wpgfishfan]

Incorrect. If you run the lottery simulater enough times. The 30th place team would end up picking 4th 47.5% of the time.

Your math is applied incorrectly.

Nope it is not. Read the post I quoted.


I think the error comes in that 4th pick is 100% minus what the odds are for 1,2,3. Yet 2,3 are assuming you might win 1

 

[Aavco Cup]

Nope it is not. Read the post I quoted.


I think the error comes in that 4th pick is 100% minus what the odds are for 1,2,3. Yet 2,3 are assuming you might win 1

So If we had a lottery where last place had a 50% chance with three chances then your math would give them 150% chance of a top 3 pick and a 100% chance of top 2? You don't just add the % 's together that way.

 

[wpgfishfan]

So If we had a lottery where last place had a 50% chance with three chances then your math would give them 150% chance of a top 3 pick and a 100% chance of top 2? You don't just add the % 's together that way.

Read the the person I quoted. It's spelt out point blank.

The chart takes into account 2nd and 3rd are lower because you might win 1

Also I'm assuming the chart maker added the numbers. I did not

 

[Aavco Cup]

Read the the person I quoted. It's spelt out point blank.

The chart takes into account 2nd and 3rd are lower because you might win 1

Also I'm assuming the chart maker added the numbers. I did not

Ignore the math then

 

[wpgfishfan]

Ignore the math then

As long as Winnipeg gets a top 3 pick I'm on board with any math. Was hoping to slide down more pre lottery because PLD at 4 would be a phenomenal pick

 

[drumzan]

Camp is in Winnipeg. I wonder if they are at the iceplex?

I mentioned earlier that I think the Czechs are here too.

 

[lomiller1]

This chart doesn't seem accurate to me. As an example the odds for the worst team are 20% for the #1 pick, but only 17.5% for #2 and 15% for number 3. The math doesn't add up. If the worst team doesn't get drawn as the #1 pick, it's odds to be drawn for the #2 pick should be higher, not lower, as a lower percentage team is now out of the pool. The top team would be no lower than a 20% chance for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks. The math throughout is similarly flawed.

They do have a higher chance to win the next pick IF they don’t win the first. If they do win the first they are not even entered for the second so they have no chance to get that pick. The net result is that they are less likely to end up in #2 than in #1.
Eg they have a 21.875% to get #2 if they have already lost their chance at #1, but that only happens 80% of the time. Their net chance to get #2 is therefore 0.8*0.21875 = 0.175 or 17.5%

 

[Huffer]

It's amazing how much lottery luck can potentially change a franchise.

I'll be holding our hope up until the lottery that we end up in the top 5 when it's all said and done as I really like PLD and Chych after the big 3. Top 6 isn't too bad either if you include Tkachuk.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's amazing how much lottery luck can potentially change a franchise.

I'll be holding our hope up until the lottery that we end up in the top 5 when it's all said and done as I really like PLD and Chych after the big 3. Top 6 isn't too bad either if you include Tkachuk.

If we are 6th the chances of either PLD or Chych still being there are pretty good. The teams ahead of us are not going to just line up and take all the picks as we project. ISS for example has Nylander 4th, TK 6th and Chych at 7. We would have a choice between TK and Chych. OTOH maybe Oil are 3rd and take Chych. We probably get to choose between PLD and TK at 6th.

 

[tacogeoff]

Can we fail one more season for Nolan Patrick..............

Watched him last night in Brandon. OMG was he a 17yr old man among boys.

 

[Channelcat]

Can we fail one more season for Nolan Patrick..............

Watched him last night in Brandon. OMG was he a 17yr old man among boys.

Ya, Patrick would be the ultimate prize, but i don't think we can do this another year. Not if you expect guys like Wheeler, Buff etc to keep towing the company line.

 

[tacogeoff]

Ya, Patrick would be the ultimate prize, but i don't think we can do this another year. Not if you expect guys like Wheeler, Buff etc to keep towing the company line.

No. I know. would be an awesome pipe dream though as he is home town local talent and darn talented.