Prospect Info: 2016 Marlies and Prospects Thread

[Canada4Gold]

Warning! Discussion of probabilities!


I think there isn't an exact percentage of the last place team drafting fourth, (the more easily discussed converse of drafting top three) because the odds change depending on the other teams that win the top places. Suppose that there are, in effect, three draws for the three top picks. The odds change, after pick one and two are selected and teams are no longer included in the following draw. As far as I can see, the odds are substantially different depending on the placement of the lucky team. So, for example, it makes a much bigger difference if the second last team, with its 13.5% chance, wins, as opposed to the 14th worst team with its 1% chance going in.

A quick back of the envelope calculation suggests the odds vary between 51% and about 43.5% for the last place team to draft 4th. The probabilities somewhat favour a number closer to the bottom than the top of that range.

I am semi- numerate at best and would like to see a comment on this by someone more knowledgeable tham I am.

No, there is an exact percentage, you just have to calculate the odds of every single team winning those initial picks and factor your odds afterwards. Enough work you'd need a computer program to do it and not want to do it by hand. Some guy on reddit did it

For example if the #2 team wins the first pick(they had 13.5% odds) then the last place team is left with a 0.20/(1-0.135) = 23.12% chance to win the 2nd pick.

The odds of both happening are 0.135 x 0.2312 = 3.12%

The you do it for the 3rd-14th place teams winning the 1st pick, and add them all together. The 3rd pick would have enough more combinations as you're doing every possible combination of the 1st 2 picks, which for each teams odds is 156 different possibilities, so to just fill out the 3rd pick part of the follow chart you'd need to do it 2184 times. Ergo you need a computer program to do the math for you.

 

[67Cup]

Thanks, I appreciate the correction. I ought to have said "no easily obtainable figure without a computer." What figure did the guy on Reddit come up with?

Edit: for some reason the table did not come up when I first saw your post. It answers my question.

Mods, could you pin that table somewhere? Thanks.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Thanks, I appreciate the correction. I ought to have said "no easily obtainable figure without a computer." What figure did the guy on Reddit come up with?

it's in the table, last place team will pick 4th 47.49% of the time

 

[HarrisonFord]

Can anybody give me a breakdown of Andrew Nielsen? I've never seen him play, and know nothing about him outside of the fact that he's over PPG in the WHL this season (and leading all defensemen in scoring)

 

[Budsfan]

In first season as pro, Solar Bears goalie makes big strides

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/os-solar-bears-ryan-massa-20160211-story.html

Ryan Massa went into his senior year at the University of Nebraska-Omaha with two goals.

Complete his degrees in finance, banking and portfolio management and make sure his days of competitive hockey did not end with graduation.

"I was an undrafted player growing up, not a lot of opportunities at the next level, professionally speaking,'' Massa said. "I just went into my last year of college and decided to leave it all out there.''

In his first professional season, Massa has become one of the ECHL's top young goaltenders for the Orlando Solar Bears (19-19-2-4, 44 points), who will begin a nine-game homestand against the Atlanta Gladiators (26-17-3-1, 56 points) at 7 Friday night at Amway Center. He is 11-8-1-1 with a team-best 2.92 goals-against average and has protected the net for both of Orlando's shutouts.

 

[zeke]

Can anybody give me a breakdown of Andrew Nielsen? I've never seen him play, and know nothing about him outside of the fact that he's over PPG in the WHL this season (and leading all defensemen in scoring)

Big physical dman with a bigtime shot and good hands and vision. He's actually pretty fast as a skater but he's not the greatest technical skater, and his first step and lateral movement are a question mark. He's not refined defensively at this point, either.

 

[Menzinger]

In first season as pro, Solar Bears goalie makes big strides

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/os-solar-bears-ryan-massa-20160211-story.html

Since aDubas' renewed effort to turn them into a contributing part of the Leafs prospect development system, they've been a very fun team to follow.

Pension Plan Puppets has great weekly coverage of them.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Is Gauthier our most forgotten prospect?

Rarely hear anything about him or any one trying to hype him up.

 

[teeder333*]

He isn't Chris Pronger yet, I don't know if we will see another Pronger any time soon. Guy was just the beast Dman of all time. In my time any ways. Just had a way of handling the puck that was sublime.

 

[ChrisCall]

it's in the table, last place team will pick 4th 47.49% of the time

I like the part where they pick 5th, 0% of the time.

 

[Apotheosis]

Can anybody give me a breakdown of Andrew Nielsen? I've never seen him play, and know nothing about him outside of the fact that he's over PPG in the WHL this season (and leading all defensemen in scoring)

Big D man, who does get physical. Huge shot (Weber like from the point) and for his size, surprisingly good skater. Although like another poster said, his lateral movement when skating could use some improvement, but I think that will come in time.

 

[Apotheosis]

agree with Button that Timashov and Nielsen are in our top 5 - and have said as much in our prospect voting threads.

I'm not convinced Johnson is up there....but it's hard to judge him playing in sweden, so maybe he does deserve it. Personally I would slot Kapanen in the top 5 instead, though.

But I agree 100% with Tima and Nielsen in there.

That's how I see it too, at least based on upside.

1. Nylander
2. Marner
3. Timashov
4. Dermott
5. Nielsen

Obviously this is subject to change, but if they hit their ceilings, going to be one hell of a team.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Big physical dman with a bigtime shot and good hands and vision. He's actually pretty fast as a skater but he's not the greatest technical skater, and his first step and lateral movement are a question mark. He's not refined defensively at this point, either.

Big D man, who does get physical. Huge shot (Weber like from the point) and for his size, surprisingly good skater. Although like another poster said, his lateral movement when skating could use some improvement, but I think that will come in time.

Thanks guys. So are we thinking a better than average bottom pair guy as a safe bet?

 

[zeke]

Thanks guys. So are we thinking a better than average bottom pair guy as a safe bet?

Well there's no such thing as a safe bet but I would pencil him in as having definite top 4 upside and realistically possible top pair upside. Kid has a ton of potential.

 

[X66]

My take on the top 5

1.Marner
2.Nylander
3.Kapanen
4.Brown
5.Dermott

Hon. Timashov

 

[MoreMogilny]

Well there's no such thing as a safe bet but I would pencil him in as having definite top 4 upside and realistically possible top pair upside. Kid has a ton of potential.

Good, solid, potential dark horse to be an impact player.

Defensemen like him can be difficult to project, but the sky is the limit. Thrilled we drafted this guy.

 

[Semantics]

it's in the table, last place team will pick 4th 47.49% of the time

Yeah and let's be realistic here, this is the Leafs we are talking about. Meaning

a) Other teams (CBJ, EDM) will out tank us despite far more talented rosters.
b) A bunch of less deserving teams will win the lottery over us.

I am not getting my hopes up for anything higher than a 5th-6th pick. Probably good for a first line player like Tkachuk or Chychrun, but not a franchise cornerstone. I'll consider winning one of the lotteries or finishing last a pleasant surprise.

Thank goodness for Hunter being able to find gems in the later rounds.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

Huh, thought Loov was the Marlies' best defenceman the one game I saw in person this year, but perhaps that's just what one game samples can be!

 

[X66]

Yeah and let's be realistic here, this is the Leafs we are talking about. Meaning

a) Other teams (CBJ, EDM) will out tank us despite far more talented rosters.
b) A bunch of less deserving teams will win the lottery over us.

I am not getting my hopes up for anything higher than a 5th-6th pick. Probably good for a first line player like Tkachuk or Chychrun, but not a franchise cornerstone. I'll consider winning one of the lotteries or finishing last a pleasant surprise.

Thank goodness for Hunter being able to find gems in the later rounds.

I have actually 100% bought into this reasoning.

Leafs can finish last, fall to 4th(it'll happen, it's too Leafs not to happen). Get made fun of on HFboards and social media for about 4 months and then back to the next season.

I have absolutely zero doubts in my mind, that we are not going to get a top 3 pick because the Leafs and luck don't go together.

 

[SEER]

I found that Andrew Nielsen's name on there is more surprising than Johnson.

Nielsen looks to be a good pick-up and has seemingly come out of nowhere.

I think he will take at least one full season with the Marlies.. and he tends to be a late-developer, but his potential is definitely there.. He's really beefed up this season, I must say..

Can anybody give me a breakdown of Andrew Nielsen? I've never seen him play, and know nothing about him outside of the fact that he's over PPG in the WHL this season (and leading all defensemen in scoring)

Andrew Nielsen
Defense -- shoots L
Born Nov 13 1996 -- Red Deer, ALTA
19 yrs. ago
Height 6.03 -- Weight 207

RECENT STATS:

2014-15 Lethbridge Hurricanes - WHL
59 Games... 7 Goals... 17 Assists...34 Points... -9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 Lethbridge Hurricanes - WHL
53 Games... 14 Goals... 41 Assists...55 Points... +31 *PPG+

D-Line Rock: Andrew Nielsen 2015-16 Highlights - TML

Johnson as the #3 leafs prospect. Interesting.

Not surprising to me... He's my #1... "new Marlie/Leafs".. prospect, for next season.. (at the moment)

agree with Button that Timashov and Nielsen are in our top 5 - and have said as much in our prospect voting threads.

I'm not convinced Johnson is up there....but it's hard to judge him playing in sweden, so maybe he does deserve it. Personally I would slot Kapanen in the top 5 instead, though.

But I agree 100% with Tima and Nielsen in there.

Johnson has improved his defensive game, immensely.. He even sacrificed some of his offensive output this season, to focus more on being a solid two-way player.. and has also put on more muscle..

Andreas Johnson
Right Wing -- shoots L
Born Nov 21 1994 -- Gavle, Sweden
21 yrs. ago
Height 5.10 -- Weight 186

RECENT STATS:

2015-16 Frolunda HC Indians - SHL
30 Games... 13 Goals... 12 Assists...25 Points... +3
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 Team Sweden - Euro. Hockey Tour
2 Games... 0 Goal... 1 Assist... 1 Point... +/- 0
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2015-16 Frolunda HC Indians - *CHL (*Champions) (*on loan)
42 Games... 17 Goals... 20 Assists... 37 Points... +5

Tyranto-Bound: Andreas Johnson 2015-16 Season Highlights - TML



..and here's clips from his 2014-15 season...

Glorious Goals: All Andreas Johnson's 2014-15 Goals - TML 2015-16

 

[ErnieLeafs]

He isn't Chris Pronger yet, I don't know if we will see another Pronger any time soon. Guy was just the beast Dman of all time. In my time any ways. Just had a way of handling the puck that was sublime.

Paul Coffey laughs at Pronger's puck skills. So does Niedermayer.

 

[SEER]

...and here's three of my many FULL playlists LINKS, to just watch any/many of our other prospects...

2015-16 Toronto Marlies Roster

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjIjS3gHB-taJywpy4npd3cR0fCvsMHsc

2015-16 Orlando Solar Bears Roster

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjIjS3gHB-tZqd4jgPkKjdPXCa7zAnJPe

More Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects (OHL/ QMJHL/ WHL/ SHL/ etc.)

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjIjS3gHB-tbFStV2WKDkWIS8vai02cEO

 

[7even]

Well there's no such thing as a safe bet but I would pencil him in as having definite top 4 upside and realistically possible top pair upside. Kid has a ton of potential.

I think that's optimistic. Too many of his points come from secondary assists on a very good team. This year alone just isn't enough for me to jump on the bandwagon to any greater extent than "this kid is one to watch."

 

[zeke]

I think that's optimistic. Too many of his points come from secondary assists on a very good team. This year alone just isn't enough for me to jump on the bandwagon to any greater extent than "this kid is one to watch."

To be honest, he has the most impressive PPG on that entire team, given his position. Only Burke is producing at as impressive a level of the forwards.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Well there's no such thing as a safe bet but I would pencil him in as having definite top 4 upside and realistically possible top pair upside. Kid has a ton of potential.

Interesting. That certainly is promising. I'm going to have to try and catch a Hurricanes game this weekend to watch the kid. Love watching young defensemen play