2016 Draft Thread | 7
- Thread starter mrmyheadhurts
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I do but it hasn't changed that much to the point where you expect juolevi to be a 55 point dman which is what I was responding to.
biturbo19
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- Jul 13, 2010
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Yeah. I don't really think Juolevi has much realistic 55+ pts upside. That's absolutely elite offensive defencemen in this day and age. That's top-10, almost top-5 offensive production from a defenceman.
But that's also not really the meat of Juolevi's game.
If he can be like a McDonagh (which is a rare comparison of Button's that i agree with) or a Vlasic, or even a prime Hamhuis or similar...in that 35-40pts range while playing #1/2 type 5v5 minutes...that's easily worth a Top-6 pick. These are anchors in a very good defence corps.
The thing with Tkachuk for me, is that everywhere he plays...he's somehow accused of being "carried". But he's done it in different situations, with different players, at all sorts of different levels. Replicated his outstanding production rates throughout.
So even if it is that he's benefiting from playing with Matthews/Marner...the end goal is to build a forward group with that type of player anyway. And i really don't see much to indicate that Tkachuk couldn't continue to be "carried" in that sense even at the NHL level...to the tune of bluechip 1st line LWer.
NoShowWilly
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biturbo19
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I said it before, but i'm in the same boat as most with Rubtsov - limited viewings.
But my question still stands...
What exactly does Rubtsov do particularly better than Brett Howden? From what i've seen of Rubtsov, they're pretty similar players overall. I just really haven't seen a ton to Rubtsov that screams more than a solid 2-way #2/3C tweener...like Howden, at the higher end of things. Just seem very comparable to me.
Which is where i'd side strongly with the familiarity of the guy i've seen a lot more of, and also comes without any of the Russian factor or Meldonium or any of the rest of that stuff.
I'd certainly like to hear from anyone who has somehow watched a ton of Rubtsov to know what i'm missing here. But that's been my take.
you arent measuring him against nothing, you're measuring him against other players that do not have as big a threat of needing to be carried in that sense. you dont just get a tkachuk for free, you are weighing the loss of picking a guy like dubois vs the gain of tkachuk and if you feel dubois doesn't need the elite linemates to be an elite player, it seems like a nobrainer to put him ahead
i think "mitch marner is a better player, currently, than tkachuk" is non-debatable, no?
i think "mitch marner is a better player, currently, than tkachuk" is non-debatable, no?
Bobs your uncle
Registered User
Hmmmmmm ...... They probably keep the pick if it's top 3 unless there is a transaction to be had for a #1 d-man. After 3 I'm guessing they'd be more open to trading the pick.
If Oilers pick in the top three they won't trade down, Laine or Puljujarvi would be great on McDavids wing. I could see them moving it if they can get a young #1D man, but not trading down to get a D in this draft. Or drafting Laine/Puljujarvi and moving Hall or Eberle out for help on D.
This is correct and for that reason I think most have no problem putting Dubois ahead of Tkachuk. It is after Dubois where I wonder how far people want to 'drop' Tkachuk because of their inflation fears.
Lower than Nylander, who is 32 points below Tkachuk?
Lower than Keller, who Tkachuk outscored in the USDP?
I'd have no problem if people made some attempt to 'quantify' how much they think Tkachuk's production is inflated-above-natural-ability but just dismissing his production out of hand because of Marner is short sighted.
yeah, sadly i dont think enough people are comfortable quantifying their perceived differences in this kind of discussion
i obviously dont have even 1% of the required information i'd need in this case to make a judgement call
i obviously dont have even 1% of the required information i'd need in this case to make a judgement call
polarbearcub
Registered User
I like juolevi but I feel he should be around 7-9.
Let's just hope we don't have to think about taking juolevi
Let's just hope we don't have to think about taking juolevi
Sure and I get that it's not clear or easy to figure out "how much". But I maintain that nearly all top producing juniors play with other top producing juniors. The Leon Draisaitl "oasis in a desert" scenario is less common than playing on a stacked line. So let's say that Marner is maybe 33% better than a "normal" linemate, which is actually quite a bit. This would put Tkachuk's production as inflated by a MAX of 33% but likely less since Marner isn't entirely responsible for all of Tkachuk's production. So let's settle on 25% inflated as a compromise. If we deflate Tkachuk's 107 pts by 25% or 22 pts it still leaves him with 85 points in 57 games or 1.49 PPG.
Not terribly scientific or rigorous I'll admit but at least it puts some parameters on the extent of his inflation. If this holds and he is "actually" a 1.49 PPG 6'1 winger with a pro style game, I think that fits well with being a candidate for -#5 in this draft after only the top 3 and Dubois.
At least that puts some numbers to the discussion for people to agree or disagree with. Better than just saying "numbers are inflated, don't draft" which is nebulous and not conducive to any real discussion.
biturbo19
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I'm not really sure about the end statement there. I think it's non-debatable to say that, "Mitch Marner handles the puck the most and creates a lot of the opportunities for that line directly off his stick".
Ultimately it just comes back to whether you see Tkachuk's game as "leeching", or "participating". For me, it's very much the latter...and he does so many things that i think allow Marner to break records and stuff and be the arguable best player there, while handling the puck constantly.
There was a little bit of earlier discussion about Tkachuk vs Nylander where it was posed as something of a hypothetical - what happens if you swap their spots?
Which i really think Nylander would actually suffer more for it - just from moving from a team where he can handle the puck as the go-to guy, to a team where Marner is the go-to guy who spends most of the time handling the puck. I don't think a line with both Nylander and Marner works as well as a Tkachuk-Marner combo - they can't all have the puck all the time.
Whereas Tkachuk's strength as an offensive player is that he can create terrific opportunities without handling the puck extensively. He takes perimeter play and translates it to points. That's where his complementary production comes from - not simply handing the puck off to a better player and watching the magic happen. As a result, he seems to create magic chemistry to "leech" off of, wherever he goes. And i really don't think it would be any different with McLeod there. Not to the same tune as with London, as Marner scores twice as many points as McLeod. But Nylander-level production hardly seems unreasonable. So comparable there, but with a lot more upside playing alongside and meshing with other extremely high skill players.
The shorter version is really...
I think with Tkachuk it's far less "leeching", and much more about elevating his game to the level of play around him. To an absolutely elite level as a prospect. It's pretty much impossible for me to envision an NHL 1st line player where Tkachuk wouldn't have something to really add to their success...to the tune of 1st line production himself as part of one of those "dynamic duos" that prevail in today's NHL much more so than "dynamic trios".
I do understand why there's some apprehension with Tkachuk...but i think the fear is kind of looking at what Tkachuk does the wrong way 'round.
I'd still take Dubois over Tkachuk. But it's not like Dubois has played exclusively with scrubs either. I thought Svechnikov was a Top-10 talent in last years draft.
StIllmatic
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Too high to draft Juolevi. He doesn't produce nearly enough offense to go that high. Disappointing. Hopefully we get a top 4 pick.
donut
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- Sep 5, 2012
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I'm almost certain it includes shot attempts. I guess this guy doesn't know how to pass; the Kobe of hockey?
WTG
December 5th
I'm almost certain it includes shot attempts. I guess this guy doesn't know how to pass; the Kobe of hockey?
I interpret it differently.
His high shot attempts confirm that his shooting percentage is sustainable.
I am pertty sure that the Liiga stat pages only show shot attempts and I don't really understand Finnish.
I'm going to guess that L% is shot attempts/goal percentage? Or else he took 112 shots in 18 games which is a bit unbelievable.
me2
Go ahead foot
That math checks out m/l = l%. goals/shots = shooting%I interpret it differently.
His high shot attempts confirm that his shooting percentage is sustainable.
I am pertty sure that the Liiga stat pages only show shot attempts and I don't really understand Finnish.
I'm going to guess that L% is shot attempts/goal percentage? Or else he took 112 shots in 18 games which is a bit unbelievable.
GetFocht
Indestructible
- Jun 11, 2013
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for a 17 year old rookie in the OHL, he's producing just fine. He turns 18 next month, and I expect him to have an Ivan Provorov season next year.
Not to mention, he is in the best franchise for development in juniors, London Knights.
Haagen Dazs
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- Mar 23, 2016
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Benning had a small interview on Sportsnet and said that if he falls out of the top 3 that he will be taking a D instead with any of the picks ranging from 4-6. So it looks like Tkachuk, Dubois, Nylander and maybe even Jost are off the table for us.
Gaunce4gm
Trusted Hockey Man
If we pick Juolevi I will skip crying and just laugh. If he was going to be a premier d-man in this league, he would have put up better than pedestrian stats on that powerhouse London team.
His interview is a little confusing, but he mentions in the 5 or 6 spot he'll be looking for a defensemen. In light of a few of the other comments in this thread, it sounds like he has PL Dubois at #4. With Tkachuk's playoffs, its not difficult to imagine Dubois going at #5 or later.
I think if we do get the 6th pick we'll end up with Juolevi
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/benning-feels-top-three-can-franchise-players/
Haagen Dazs
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- Mar 23, 2016
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I know a lot of people here think Benning is taking Juolevi if we fall out of the top 3 but Benning loves physical attributes as many of you know, so based on that I really think Sergachyov makes the most sense in terms of the D he is targeting.
If he is going to take a D man between 4-6, I hope Benning realizes there's potential there to move down in the draft and acquire another asset.
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