My Take
I'm going to assume the top 5 forwards are out of reach and long off the board before the Red Wings pick. The rest are kind of up in the air, so I'll give my take on the next 20 prospects.
well some may seem very unlikely at 16. They could slide down around the 10 range.... meaning there is an outside chance of a Wings trade up.
YES PLEASE, SIGN ME UP:
Chychrun - Kid is a beast and has all the tools to be an all around stud prospect. Said he needs to be reigned in on over skating with the puck. I'll take my chances he can figure that out. Chychrun has definitely been victimized by the Hakan rule of over scouting. I'll always remember the first couple times I saw him play as a 16 year old and I couldn't believe the eye popping talent. He stood out like an older brother playing shinny his younger brothers friends. I want to land him sooo bad and can't believe there is a realistic chance.
Sergachev - Loads of size and aggression with the skating and skill to match. Would be just what we need. It is said he is too composed or taking it easy at times? I don't even see that as a knock. The game looked easy for Sergachev. I'm not sure the speed of the forecheck at the OHL level was much of a challenge for him last year.
Fabbro - What a smooth operator. I think his competition (BCHL) is the only reason he isn't a sure fire top 10. But he killed that league and was dominant against his true peers in the under 18. Could stand to get stronger, but no real concerns here.
Bean - The most elite offensive talent among blueliners in the draft. Some risk with size and defensive play. But kid has the homerun talent that you arent usually going to find sitting on the board at 16. This pick would be exciting.
Keller - For a lot of the same reasons I would be excited about Bean. Kid has the talent to match those consesus top 5 forwards, but for that 5 inch height gap. Some consider him the most talented and compare him to Patrick Kane. Doubtful he is around, but stranger things have happened.
Tufte - Is he the next big bodied high school prospect to make an impact in the NHL (re Bjugstad and Wheeler). The one downside is he will take longer to develop. But he is huge and has the raw upside that can't be denied. As expected his numbers were gaudy at the high school level. I'm sure you see the trend I like teh high upside prospects.
Jost - Really like his speed and two way game. Obviously had loads of offensive talent. Record breaking performance at the under 18's validates his 100 + point year in BCHL. If he somehow slips, I wouldn't hesitate to pass on our much needed defenceman depending whats on the board.
Jones - Was considered a consensus top 5 pick in this draft entering this season. Is a huge pest in the mold of a much bigger Marchand. As a rookie was already considered most hated player in OHL by his peers. Would fit in with what Wings are doing upfront. Strong skater and a very hard shot with a good release. Don't be fooled by his point totals. He played 2nd line with little(if any) PP time. Most other top prospects got 1A duties in offensive situations. If he and Tkachuk switched roles in London, I think a 90 point season would have been a safe bet and Jones is going top 10. While he doesn't quite have the soft hands of Tkachuk, he is the better 200 foot player.
Kunin - Kid is a finisher. It's not easy to find consistent goal scorers at the NHL level. I think his speed and ability to read the game will help transfer those goals to the pros... unlike some other slower goal scorers who just find their spot on the PP.
I've heard his size questioned. But he is basically 6' 195lbs at the combine.
ON THE FENCE:
Nylander - You can't deny his skill. And for that reason alone I wouldn't mind if he fell to 16 and we picked him. But I'm not sold enough to move up and grab him. Not sure some of the stuff he does in junior will be effective in the NHL. He was already prone to turnovers last year. Didn't seem too interested in his own end. But that stuff can be worked out of his game and he would be an interesting get.
Bellows - From pure lack of knowledge I'm not sure about him. None of the scouts seem to be screaming top end talent.
McAvoy - Good pick. Aggressive defenseman, who is good with the puck. I just really like the other 4 mentioned above. I would look at him as a pick of need and I would understand it.
DO NOT WANT, AVOID;
Juolevi - Not even at 16 would I want Juolevi. He is a solid all around defenseman in junior. But he doesn't have the dominant wow factor in any aspect of his game. His offensive numbers are inflated by playing for the highest scoring team in the OHL and getting heavy minutes in all situations including the #1 PP unit. But keep in mind when you watch the Knights, he was in no way a catalyst of the offense... more of a benefactor. You barely notice him during the games. Which is a great thing at the NHL level. But a first round talent should stand out like a sore thumb at the the junior level (re Chychrun). Also a little soft for my liking. Glad someone else will likey take him before us causing another prospect to fall.
Gauthier- Not sold. Seems too slow. One dimensional shooter in my eyes. Not sure his goal scoring will translate. Despite being an impressive physical specimen... doesn't really use his size and isn't aggressive.
McLeod - Smart, solid player, but doesn't have that stand out attribute. Don't think he has top line upside. Too many other players that do.
Rubstov - Sorry I know he is popular on the board. But i keep hearing safe pick. Two way player. I want my Russians to be oozing with undeniable top end talent and only held back by questions of them reporting (staying in future). I admit I do hold that against him somewhat. It's undeniable Russian players tend to leave for KHL or use it against you in negotiations... Kovalchuk, Datsyuk, Sabotka, Burmistrov, Radulov, Komorov, D.Markov, Morozov, Zherdev, Tikhonov, Svitov, Semin, Frolov (among others). All guys who left premturemly, middle of contract, at the first sign of NHL struggle or constantly used KHL threat to get overpaid. It's a factor for me and Rubstov doesn't have the undeniable talent (like a Kutznetsov) to overlook.
DeBrinkat - No thanks. An opportunistic scorer. But he does not make his presence known during the game. You just kind of notice he has two goals on the game sheet. Lots of holes in his game.
Just my opinion, look forward to feedback/differing views. Hopefully you enjoyed the read.