2015 NHL Draft Thread II (6/26-6/27)

[Cash for Nash]

I'm game

Yeah me too. I'd probably do 8th + Rychel and even a 2016 1st. Would Arizona do this?

And if we sucked again next year and Arizona had our top 3 pick I'd quit following the cbj for life

 

[Mayor Bee]

Does anyone know if Jarmo has ever traded up during the draft? He has said that you don't draft based on teams needs because it may take years for a young player to make an impact and at that time your team might look completely different. Trading up to get Hanifin seems like drafting for need and you'd have to pay a hefty price to get there. Seems like there will be many good players available at #8 and depending on how high those players are on teams list they might even trade down and milk other teams for more picks. I think quantity is good in a deep draft.

No, but he's traded back twice. 2013 had #44 for #50 (Heatherington) and #89 (Bjorkstrand), and 2014 had #63 for #76 (Merzlikins) and an unpegged 2015 3rd-rounder (#80, traded to Anaheim as part of the Wisniewski deal).

 

[Mayor Bee]

Yeah me too. I'd probably do 8th + Rychel and even a 2016 1st. Would Arizona do this?

And if we sucked again next year and Arizona had our top 3 pick I'd quit following the cbj for life

According to Gare Joyce, Columbus had the chance in 2006 to move up. The deal would look like:

To CBJ - #2 overall
To PIT - #6 overall, 2007 1st-rounder

 

[Jackets16]

Yeah me too. I'd probably do 8th + Rychel and even a 2016 1st. Would Arizona do this?

And if we sucked again next year and Arizona had our top 3 pick I'd quit following the cbj for life

I know I am in the minority on this, but there is NO WAY I would do that. Not even close. You are trading 3 first rounders to move up a few spots and you aren't even getting one of the 2 elite players in the draft. I just don't understand what you guys are thinking.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I know I am in the minority on this, but there is NO WAY I would do that. Not even close. You are trading 3 first rounders to move up a few spots and you aren't even getting one of the 2 elite players in the draft. I just don't understand what you guys are thinking.

What they're thinking is that there are three elite players in this draft. I remain unconvinced and agree with you, but I believe that is the thinking.

 

[Cash for Nash]

What they're thinking is that there are three elite players in this draft. I remain unconvinced and agree with you, but I believe that is the thinking.

It's definitely the thinking (re: 3 elite players). Castron said as much in a direct statement.

And if we are as good as the spin job from the front office implies--we may not have an opportunity picking this high for a while to select a franchise #1 dman.

Just throwing that Scenario out there wondering if Arizona would do it?

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

It's definitely the thinking (re: 3 elite players). Castron said as much in a direct statement.

And if we are as good as the spin job from the front office implies--we may not have an opportunity picking this high for a while to select a franchise #1 dman.

Just throwing that Scenario out there wondering if Arizona would do it?

Not saying it's beneath discussion but to me that package of three firsts seems too much.

 

[Mayor Bee]

What they're thinking is that there are three elite players in this draft. I remain unconvinced and agree with you, but I believe that is the thinking.

Well, then the question becomes how big the difference is between "elite" and "really really good".

Thinking back on defensemen from when I was younger, it was the prime years of a class of Bourque, MacInnis, Coffey, Stevens, Chelios, Leetch, and Housley. We can rank those guys all over the place by different criteria, or by peak versus career, or by ability to stay healthy, or by a hell of a lot of other things. That's not even including guys who had some huge prime years like Kevin Hatcher or Larry Murphy or Steve Duchesne.

 

[Mayor Bee]

It's definitely the thinking (re: 3 elite players). Castron said as much in a direct statement.

And if we are as good as the spin job from the front office implies--we may not have an opportunity picking this high for a while to select a franchise #1 dman.

Had it and did it in 2012; now we simply wait...

 

[Jackets16]

It's definitely the thinking (re: 3 elite players). Castron said as much in a direct statement.

And if we are as good as the spin job from the front office implies--we may not have an opportunity picking this high for a while to select a franchise #1 dman.

Just throwing that Scenario out there wondering if Arizona would do it?

There may be 3 players better than the rest, but those 3 aren't on the same level, IMO.

 

[Jackets16]

Does anyone have a list of trades the last 10 years or so where a team traded up in the draft?

 

[Cash for Nash]

There may be 3 players better than the rest, but those 3 aren't on the same level, IMO.

True. But would you give up an 8th overall, b+ prospect, and a non lottery 1st rounder from the following years draft to select aaron ekblad. I probably would--and a large number of scouts feel hannifin is a better prospect.

Just playing devils advocate here

 

[major major]

According to Gare Joyce, Columbus had the chance in 2006 to move up. The deal would look like:

To CBJ - #2 overall
To PIT - #6 overall, 2007 1st-rounder

That's a good illustration of the incredible risk and reward involved.

Who would we have taken? Jordan Staal or Jonathan Toews?

Brassard + Voracek >> Jordan Staal
Brassard + Voracek << Jonathan Toews

 

[EspenK]

There may be 3 players better than the rest, but those 3 aren't on the same level, IMO.

And according to most,if not all, scouting services and "draft experts" you are right. The thing to consider is that Hanifin could become a HOF D man in his own right if many of the scouting services are right. If they miss by a level and he turns out to be a top pairing guy like Seabrook or McDonagh or all the other top pair guys who aren't HOFers, who cares.

That being said I don't know about the 3 firsts. I guess if he turns out to be the franchise D man for 12 years it would be worth it.

 

[EspenK]

Does anyone have a list of trades the last 10 years or so where a team traded up in the draft?

google nhl draft 20xx - go to the wikipedia entry. They list all the trades somewhere either after the 1st round or back in 2004 there was a section for draft day trades. Not all in one place but the data is available there.

 

[Jackets16]

True. But would you give up an 8th overall, b+ prospect, and a non lottery 1st rounder from the following years draft to select aaron ekblad. I probably would--and a large number of scouts feel hannifin is a better prospect.

Just playing devils advocate here

Going into his draft year? No. I am not sure Hanifin is that good either.

 

[Jackets16]

And according to most,if not all, scouting services and "draft experts" you are right. The thing to consider is that Hanifin could become a HOF D man in his own right if many of the scouting services are right. If they miss by a level and he turns out to be a top pairing guy like Seabrook or McDonagh or all the other top pair guys who aren't HOFers, who cares.

That being said I don't know about the 3 firsts. I guess if he turns out to be the franchise D man for 12 years it would be worth it.

Fair enough. I'm just not trading 3 firsts for the chance to get that type of player. I'd trade 3 for that kind of player though.

google nhl draft 20xx - go to the wikipedia entry. They list all the trades somewhere either after the 1st round or back in 2004 there was a section for draft day trades. Not all in one place but the data is available there.

Thanks, but I figured someone probably had it as these things get posted often.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Does anyone have a list of trades the last 10 years or so where a team traded up in the draft?

It's an incredibly long list, so...

The 2005 draft had twelve such trades. A good question is how often it's actually worth it to move up. Using 2005 as an example, here are the moves. For the sake of brevity, I'm eliminated the rounds and pick numbers; these are only the players selected. The team moving up is first, therefore the targeted player they were moving up for is on the right.

San Jose trades #12 (about to be traded), Chad Denny, and Myles Stoesz to Atlanta for Devin Setoguchi
New York trades Alex Bourret and Ondrej Pavelec to Atlanta for Marc Staal (#12)
Florida trades Steve Downie and Cory Emmerton to Philadelphia for Kenndal McArdle
Washington trades Tom Fritsche and Chris Durand to Colorado for Joe Finley
Montreal trades Marc-Andre Cliche and Brodie Dupont to New York for Guillaume Latendresse
Phoenix trades Jeremy Duchesne and 2006 2nd-rounder (#39) to Philadelphia for Pier-Olivier Pelletier
Tampa trades PJ Fenton and Jase Weslosky to San Jose for Radek Smolenak
Calgary trades Marc-Andre Gragnani and Chris Butler to Buffalo for Dan Ryder
Tampa trades 2006 2nd-rounder to Philadelphia for Chris Lawrence and Blair Jones
Columbus trades 2006 4th-rounder and Derrick Walser (roster player) to Carolina for Jared Boll
Anaheim trades Tony Lucia and 2006 7th-rounder to San Jose for Brian Salcido
Tampa trades 2006 5th-rounder for Kevin Beech

The ones toward the tail end usually reflect that particular type of asset management: to get a late pick in that year's draft one-for-one will normally require a pick the next year one round higher. Kevin Beech was a 6th-rounder; Tampa traded the next year's 5th to get him.

 

[Jackets16]

It's an incredibly long list, so...

The 2005 draft had twelve such trades. A good question is how often it's actually worth it to move up. Using 2005 as an example, here are the moves. For the sake of brevity, I'm eliminated the rounds and pick numbers; these are only the players selected. The team moving up is first, therefore the targeted player they were moving up for is on the right.

San Jose trades #12 (about to be traded), Chad Denny, and Myles Stoesz to Atlanta for Devin Setoguchi
New York trades Alex Bourret and Ondrej Pavelec to Atlanta for Marc Staal (#12)
Florida trades Steve Downie and Cory Emmerton to Philadelphia for Kenndal McArdle
Washington trades Tom Fritsche and Chris Durand to Colorado for Joe Finley
Montreal trades Marc-Andre Cliche and Brodie Dupont to New York for Guillaume Latendresse
Phoenix trades Jeremy Duchesne and 2006 2nd-rounder (#39) to Philadelphia for Pier-Olivier Pelletier
Tampa trades PJ Fenton and Jase Weslosky to San Jose for Radek Smolenak
Calgary trades Marc-Andre Gragnani and Chris Butler to Buffalo for Dan Ryder
Tampa trades 2006 2nd-rounder to Philadelphia for Chris Lawrence and Blair Jones
Columbus trades 2006 4th-rounder and Derrick Walser (roster player) to Carolina for Jared Boll
Anaheim trades Tony Lucia and 2006 7th-rounder to San Jose for Brian Salcido
Tampa trades 2006 5th-rounder for Kevin Beech

The ones toward the tail end usually reflect that particular type of asset management: to get a late pick in that year's draft one-for-one will normally require a pick the next year one round higher. Kevin Beech was a 6th-rounder; Tampa traded the next year's 5th to get him.

Thanks. I was looking more for trades where a team added to their pick to move up. I.E. #8, + for #3

 

[Hello Johnny]

Hanifin is the only player I'd trade up for outside of the top 2, and I'd pay quite a bit to do it. To have Murray and Hanifin would set our D for years. Provorov is a great prospect, as is Werenski, but Hanifin is going to be that bona fide franchise defenseman like Ekblad or Doughty. The kind of guy you pay a premium for, and we have the assets to do it.

I'd happily trade 8 + Rychel + 2016 1st.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Thanks. I was looking more for trades where a team added to their pick to move up. I.E. #8, + for #3

The last such deal within the top-10 was in 2008. With a lot of the league from the salary cap CBA (2005) gone, this is basically incompatible with today.

 

[Jackets16]

Hanifin is the only player I'd trade up for outside of the top 2, and I'd pay quite a bit to do it. To have Murray and Hanifin would set our D for years. Provorov is a great prospect, as is Werenski, but Hanifin is going to be that bona fide franchise defenseman like Ekblad or Doughty. The kind of guy you pay a premium for, and we have the assets to do it.

I'd happily trade 8 + Rychel + 2016 1st.

I guess this is the part I just don't understand. I don't see him being that good, and if he was, why would anyone picking after two trade their pick?

 

[Jackets16]

The last such deal within the top-10 was in 2008. With a lot of the league from the salary cap CBA (2005) gone, this is basically incompatible with today.

Thanks

 

[Viqsi]

That's a good illustration of the incredible risk and reward involved.

Who would we have taken? Jordan Staal or Jonathan Toews?

Brassard + Voracek >> Jordan Staal
Brassard + Voracek << Jonathan Toews

Unquestionably it would have been Staal, and there would have been riots here if Dougie Mac had picked anyone else. Because this:

had happened literally one week prior.

 

[EspenK]

I guess this is the part I just don't understand. I don't see him being that good, and if he was, why would anyone picking after two trade their pick?

Not sure but:

Most things I've read say if it weren't for McEichel he'd be the #1 prospect. Sounds pretty good to me. Of course I have also read that some scouts think more highly of Provorov or Werenski. The point is that most are pretty certain he will be a top pair guy for many years to come. That makes him a very valuable prospect in most people's mind.

The reason some teams may consider trading their pick, although most don't is maybe they have a top pair D in place and figure they can add a top C or F a couple spots down. Or they are so thin on their roster and in the system they just need more picks or bodies.

To me the real reason we should trade up if at all possible is we have no real top 2 guy in the system other than Murray and he has a history of being injured. We have an abundance of F's both signed and in the system. One less isn't going to set the franchise back 5 years. On the other hand getting a guy like one of the big 3, could set the franchise up for the next 10 years starting anywhere from September to a couple years down the road. It is a risk reward thing. Pass on all 3 of these guys and add another F is just not smart,imo. If we wind up drafting non-lottery for the next few years, the odds of getting that top guy diminish. In my opinion we should do what needs to be done to get one this draft.

If we rank Werenski as the equal of Hanifin and Provorov then a trade is less necessary and probably should be avoided. If we think there is a significant gap between him and the other 2 we should try to do whatever it takes to get one of those guys.