Prospect Info: 2015 Draft Thread

[Raccoon Jesus]

Keeping Hammond and trading Lehner is a short-sighted, reactionary, HF boards fan move.

 

[damacles1156]

I'm a lot more wary of taking goalies in the top two rounds due to the volatility of the position.

If a forward in the first round fails to meet expectations, he may still be serviceable in a lesser role and play. Like be a third or fourth liner instead of a first or second liner. Or be a defensive specialist.

When a goalie doesn't pan out, he's a backup at best and will only play a chunk of games, and no other niche can be carved out.

Obviously you can't depend on mid picks working out either, but you should be 110% convinced on a goalie if you're going to use that value on him. And considering these are 18 year-olds, that's a dangerous game.

This is not true either.

Plenty of Forwards/Defenders picked in the first 60 picks don't even make NHL rosters.

It's not as simple as "Hey this guy can be a third liner".

Just for Lombardi/Futa

Joey Ryan (2nd round)
Teubert (first round)
Moller (second round) Made roster, but not an NHL player.

Just some examples

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I'm a lot more wary of taking goalies in the top two rounds due to the volatility of the position.

If a forward in the first round fails to meet expectations, he may still be serviceable in a lesser role and play. Like be a third or fourth liner instead of a first or second liner. Or be a defensive specialist.

When a goalie doesn't pan out, he's a backup at best and will only play a chunk of games, and no other niche can be carved out.

Obviously you can't depend on mid picks working out either, but you should be 110% convinced on a goalie if you're going to use that value on him. And considering these are 18 year-olds, that's a dangerous game.

Exactly, you put it best.

And I'm not saying never draft goalies, there are exceptions like I named with Price, Fleury as well, but I've seen far more guys not pan out who were drafted in the early rounds. That's why more forwards and dmen are selected in the top 10-15 range. It's an easier read than goalies. Hence why so many great goalies in the NHL who were taken in the later rounds snuck through their draft years. It's not always the goalies with the great junior careers that pan out.

I'd rather see them go with the similar path they have when they brought in a Quick. Look how Bernier was rushed at first while a guy like Quick went through the longer process and then shot way ahead of the Kings' 1st round pick in 2006. Not suggesting they'll find more goalies like Quick in the later rounds, but I'd rather they take their time with a goalie, which sometimes you can't afford when selecting a goalie in the 1st round.

 

[damacles1156]

With a proper development staff and philosophy, you can take your time with any 1st round pick.

See Derek Forbort.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I think there should be a thread to guess the Kings rd 1 and rd 2 selections.
Going beyond rd 2 would be a total crapshoot...even rd 2 would be tough to
nail pick 43.

Can someone create this? How about a few here chime in what the rules / parameters should be and lets do it.
You can make your selections up to 1 hour before the first round.

Should be choices:

1. kings trade 1st rd selection : (yes/no)
2. kings trade 2nd rd selection (yes/no)
3. first player chosen (if #13 traded up or down, you still guess the player and
not necessarily pick #13)
4. second player chosen. (not necessarily pick #43, if traded up or down)

Another option would be 'kings trade pick for another player" but I do not think that
happens. What do you think? Should that be an option?

But I think the 4 items above should be in the contest. I would not include #13 or #43, in case the picks are dealt, thus 'first' and 'second' players chosen takes
care of that situation.

Let's do this!

 

[damacles1156]

Exactly, you put it best.

And I'm not saying never draft goalies, there are exceptions like I named with Price, Fleury as well, but I've seen far more guys not pan out who were drafted in the early rounds. That's why more forwards and dmen are selected in the top 10-15 range. It's an easier read than goalies. Hence why so many great goalies in the NHL who were taken in the later rounds snuck through their draft years. It's not always the goalies with the great junior careers that pan out.

I'd rather see them go with the similar path they have when they brought in a Quick. Look how Bernier was rushed at first while a guy like Quick went through the longer process and then shot way ahead of the Kings' 1st round pick in 2006. Not suggesting they'll find more goalies like Quick in the later rounds, but I'd rather they take their time with a goalie, which sometimes you can't afford when selecting a goalie in the 1st round.

Hehe just for kicks.

You know for a fact you would be the first guy railing the Kings for passing on a BPA goalie in round one. If said Goalie turned out to be the next (Carey Price).

Ziggy would be losing his mind.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

2007 draft, 0 goalies selected in 1st round, 4 goalies selected in 2nd round, and not a single one of them has appeared in a single game in the NHL.

2008 draft, 2 goalies selected in 1st round, one bust (Chet Pickard) and one other goalie who may be a backup (Tom McCollum). Markstrom and Allen were 2nd round picks who may pan out, but two other goalies taken in the 2nd round appear to be busts in Beskorowany and Delmas.

2009 draft, 0 goalies selected in 1st round, 2 goalies selected in 2nd round, one was Koskinen who was taken at 31st and is in the KHL and won't be coming over and the other is Robin Lehner who may be dealt and has had difficulty staying healthy.

2010 draft, 2 goalies selected in the 1st round, both appear to be busts (Campbell and Visentin). Two goalies selected in the 2nd round in Calvin Pickard and Kent Simpson. Pickard will be a decent backup behind Varlamov. Kent Simpson is an ECHL level goalie.

Care to take a stab at how many skaters were selected who panned out versus those who didn't? That should explain why you approach goalies with caution in the early rounds.

 

[Minor Boarding]

This is not true either.

Plenty of Forwards/Defenders picked in the first 60 picks don't even make NHL rosters.

It's not as simple as "Hey this guy can be a third liner".

Just for Lombardi/Futa

Joey Ryan (2nd round)
Teubert (first round)
Moller (second round) Made roster, but not an NHL player.

Just some examples

Christopher Gibson. (49th overall)

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Hehe just for kicks.

You know for a fact you would be the first guy railing the Kings for passing on a BPA goalie in round one. If said Goalie turned out to be the next (Carey Price).

Ziggy would be losing his mind.

The Kings took the best player available in Jonathan Bernier in 2006 with the 11th selection and I was very pleased with that pick, yet plenty of players taken after him have had much more successful careers, but you don't see me constantly bringing that up. So no, you're wrong.

 

[damacles1156]

Christopher Gibson. (49th overall)

Forgot him as well. But I was pointing out about Forwards/Defenders

He didn't even make it as a backup. Although Toronto is trying him out.

So it's not as simple as "this guy can transition into a lesser role".

 

[kingsfan]

I'd rather see them go with the similar path they have when they brought in a Quick. Look how Bernier was rushed at first while a guy like Quick went through the longer process and then shot way ahead of the Kings' 1st round pick in 2006. Not suggesting they'll find more goalies like Quick in the later rounds, but I'd rather they take their time with a goalie, which sometimes you can't afford when selecting a goalie in the 1st round.

What's overlooked in the Quick/Bernier comparision is that Quick wasn't even drafted his first year of eligibility. So he was already a year further along in his development than Bernier was when the Kings even got him into the fold. Age wise, Quick is also about 20 months, or nearly two years, old than Bernier.

Both goalies became NHL regulars around the same age, 22. No one shot ahead of the other, age and physical development is why Quick got there first.

Also, Bernier was not rushed. He was given a four game trial, it didn't work (minus the first game in Europe when he looked brilliant) and was sent back to juniors. We see this every year with 18 and 19 year olds and it doesn't ruin then. What ruins these kids is when they are handed 12 minutes a game in limited roles instead of going back to junior to play 20+ a game in all situations like what the Oilers did this year with Driasatl.

 

[kingsfan]

2007 draft, 0 goalies selected in 1st round, 4 goalies selected in 2nd round, and not a single one of them has appeared in a single game in the NHL.

2008 draft, 2 goalies selected in 1st round, one bust (Chet Pickard) and one other goalie who may be a backup (Tom McCollum). Markstrom and Allen were 2nd round picks who may pan out, but two other goalies taken in the 2nd round appear to be busts in Beskorowany and Delmas.

2009 draft, 0 goalies selected in 1st round, 2 goalies selected in 2nd round, one was Koskinen who was taken at 31st and is in the KHL and won't be coming over and the other is Robin Lehner who may be dealt and has had difficulty staying healthy.

2010 draft, 2 goalies selected in the 1st round, both appear to be busts (Campbell and Visentin). Two goalies selected in the 2nd round in Calvin Pickard and Kent Simpson. Pickard will be a decent backup behind Varlamov. Kent Simpson is an ECHL level goalie.

Care to take a stab at how many skaters were selected who panned out versus those who didn't? That should explain why you approach goalies with caution in the early rounds.

2003- 1st round: Fluery 2nd round: Crawford and Howard.
2004- 1st round Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schnieder 2nd round: Schantz, Peters
2005- 1st round: Price, Rask 2nd round: Plante, Frazee, Pavelec, Pelletier
2006- 1st round: Bernier, Helenius, Varlamnov, Irving, 2nd round: Neuvirth, Enroth

So in these four years we have 21 goalies picked in the first or second round. Of them 10 were starters for their NHL team this year and another three were backups. You could argue actually one of those backups was a starter if you want to debate were Enroth was on the Buffalo Sabres pecking order before he was traded.

That's 13 out of 21 goalies that panned out as legit NHLers, almost all as starters. In those four draft years, one-third of all NHL starters this season were picked.

Perhaps 2007-2010 was just a ****ty time for goalies?

 

[King'sPawn]

This is not true either.

Plenty of Forwards/Defenders picked in the first 60 picks don't even make NHL rosters.

It's not as simple as "Hey this guy can be a third liner".

Just for Lombardi/Futa

Joey Ryan (2nd round)
Teubert (first round)
Moller (second round) Made roster, but not an NHL player.

Just some examples

I'm not saying all forwards and dmen make it.

But if you spend a first on a goalie who doesn't make it as a starter, you have to settle for a backup at best.

If you spend a first on a forward who doesn't make it on the top 6, there is still a chance at being an NHL regular in the bottom 6.

I just think you have to be extremely confident in a volatile position that is very dependent on mental makeup to spend a first on a goalie.

 

[417th]

This is not true either.

Plenty of Forwards/Defenders picked in the first 60 picks don't even make NHL rosters.

It's not as simple as "Hey this guy can be a third liner".

Just for Lombardi/Futa

Joey Ryan (2nd round)
Teubert (first round)
Moller (second round) Made roster, but not an NHL player.

Just some examples

He played in 87 games scored 26 points and was a +22 for the Kings. He may not have been what we wanted but he was absolutely an NHL player. He got a better offer in his homeland and never looked back. I agree with the premise of what you are saying but not your assessment regarding Moller.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

He played in 87 games scored 26 points and was a +22 for the Kings. He may not have been what we wanted but he was absolutely an NHL player. He got a better offer in his homeland and never looked back. I agree with the premise of what you are saying but not your assessment regarding Moller.

Plus Oscar was drafted as a player than could play immediately or close to it.

 

[Peter James Bond II]

I can't believe 'Bust' Holloway has not been brought up in this thread. discuss.

 

[kingsfan]

He played in 87 games scored 26 points and was a +22 for the Kings. He may not have been what we wanted but he was absolutely an NHL player. He got a better offer in his homeland and never looked back. I agree with the premise of what you are saying but not your assessment regarding Moller.

Mehh, I call him a busted pick. Drafting in the top two or three rounds, you are aiming to walk away with a player, not a guy that made appearances here or there. 160 games, or the equivalent of two full seasons is what I set as a benchmark. Moller's NHL contribution barely eclipsed the equivalent of one season, spread out over three actual seasons. Not to mention the number of NHL games played decreased each year in the organization. He wasn't going to hack it as a NHLer.

 

[417th]

Mehh, I call him a busted pick. Drafting in the top two or three rounds, you are aiming to walk away with a player, not a guy that made appearances here or there. 160 games, or the equivalent of two full seasons is what I set as a benchmark. Moller's NHL contribution barely eclipsed the equivalent of one season, spread out over three actual seasons. Not to mention the number of NHL games played decreased each year in the organization. He wasn't going to hack it as a NHLer.

I would agree not with us but he fled off to home hockey before we found out whether or not he would with any other club. That said both of us are only at best capable of speculating as to how he would have done down the road. As for him making the NHL and putting up slightly better than average numbers while doing so that is beyond question. He made the NHL and did acceptable enough for being a young player starting off to where I wouldn't take the honor of his being able to have called himself an NHL player away from him. He played in 87 more NHL games then I ever did and I would be you have as well. I may be setting the bar a little low but Moller was an NHL caliber player and wasn't a total bust even with the Kings. Could have done a whole lot better but now awful either.

 

[kingsfan]

[/B]

I would agree not with us but he fled off to home hockey before we found out whether or not he would with any other club. That said both of us are only at best capable of speculating as to how he would have done down the road. As for him making the NHL and putting up slightly better than average numbers while doing so that is beyond question. He made the NHL and did acceptable enough for being a young player starting off to where I wouldn't take the honor of his being able to have called himself an NHL player away from him. He played in 87 more NHL games then I ever did and I would be you have as well. I may be setting the bar a little low but Moller was an NHL caliber player and wasn't a total bust even with the Kings. Could have done a whole lot better but now awful either.

I think the fact he asked DL's permission and was granted it and we haven't heard much if anything about bringing him back into the organization speaks volumes. He's been gone four years and from what I have read there's no interest in his rights from other teams either. It's not like LA fought to have him stay here.

Question, what do you consider the minimum for being called a NHL player then?

 

[417th]

I think the fact he asked DL's permission and was granted it and we haven't hard much if anything about bringing him back into the organization speaks volumes. He's been gone four years and from what I have read there's no interest in his rights from other teams either. It's not like LA fought to have him stay here.

Question, what do you consider the minimum for being called a NHL player then?

1 season is the required amount of time for me to be able to have some sort of insight as to how well or poorly a kid can acquit themselves at the NHL. Other then that I would also agree with the idea that if you make the NHL and ride the bench for the most part of an NHL season then you were an NHL caliber player too. I mean you got the call which doesn't happen for tons and tons of players and then you get to play on NHL ice at all you are by definition an NHL player and that counts to a certain extent to me anyways.

I wouldn't call Moller a bust nor would I call him a good or even better than average NHL player but I will stand by the idea that he proved he could play in the NHL in the 87 games he was allowed to do so. He could have gone on to do even better or could have done even worse but he proved he belonged where he was during his time in the NHL or at least did so to me. His +22 was pretty good for a kid 3C all things considered.

 

[kingsfan]

I guess. I look at it like would I give up a 2nd -plus all the time and resources to develop the kid selected- for one season? Nope. But agree to disagree.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

#hcanes fan coming in peace

someone on our board said they saw//heard a rumor that if LA doesn't like who is available at #13, that they have the option to send us the 13th this year and take their pick next year back.

you guy's heard anything about this? very interesting if true

 

[417th]

#hcanes fan coming in peace

someone on our board said they saw//heard a rumor that if LA doesn't like who is available at #13, that they have the option to send us the 13th this year and take their pick next year back.

you guy's heard anything about this? very interesting if true

We do hold the option of taking this years or next years pick but we won't be sending it back to you. We will be drafting much later next year is one reason that we will use this years pick, another would be the depth of this years draft vs next years draft. If we don't have one of our targeted kids available and don't like who is available we will try and move back in the draft a few spots. If that doesn't happen take the BPA and then we have an excellent moveable piece down the road if needed or a great young player if not.

Of course there is always the potential of a trade as well. We would be sending Richards along with the 13th for your 2nd rd as a starting off point.

 

[Primakov!]

#hcanes fan coming in peace

someone on our board said they saw//heard a rumor that if LA doesn't like who is available at #13, that they have the option to send us the 13th this year and take their pick next year back.

you guy's heard anything about this? very interesting if true

What's the source?

I ask because this would be the first time I've ever heard of something like that being mentioned and I'm pretty sure we'd have talked about it here to some degree if it were true.

 

[Reaper45]

He played in 87 games scored 26 points and was a +22 for the Kings. He may not have been what we wanted but he was absolutely an NHL player. He got a better offer in his homeland and never looked back. I agree with the premise of what you are saying but not your assessment regarding Moller.

Moller was and absolutely is an NHL player. Zuccarello like if he came back over.