Prospect Info: 2015 Draft Thread

[Frolov 6'3]

If you want a potential starter for when Quick eventually slows down due to age *which will happen sooner rather than later).

You pick that Goalie round 1 or 2. The vast majority of high end starters in the NHL at (Any) position, were picked round 1 or 2.

The vast majority of high end starters were picked in round 3 or later, even round 8 and being undrafted.

The draft is a crapshoot for forwards/defensemen, but even more for goalies. You already notice that teams draft goalies way later compared to the past. I believe Dallas was one of the last teams that drafted a goalie top 10 and that looks like to be a mistake again. Its late round 1 and round 2 and to me that's still a mistake. The odds to pick a good forward/defenseman is higher.

Besides, we have Bartosak and 5 more years of Quick.

 

[kingsfan]

The vast majority of high end starters were picked in round 3 or later, even round 8 and being undrafted.

The draft is a crapshoot for forwards/defensemen, but even more for goalies. You already notice that teams draft goalies way later compared to the past. I believe Dallas was one of the last teams that drafted a goalie top 10 and that looks like to be a mistake again. Its late round 1 and round 2 and to me that's still a mistake. The odds to pick a good forward/defenseman is higher.

Besides, we have Bartosak and 5 more years of Quick.

There was a post I believe earlier in this tread. 22 of 58 starters and backups were picked in round one or two. 10 more were undrafted. Just over 40% of all NHL goalies come from round three or later. Don't hold your breath getting a starter in the later round or even a back up.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

And Quick is 30 this year and it took Bernier five seasons to even make the NHL as a regular backup. I have no issues with drafting Quick's replacement already, for every Lunqvist and Broduer there is a Niklas Backstrom and Cam Ward.

Also, at the time Bernier didn't fetch a bad return. Frattin was coming off an injury plagued but decent season, Scrivens was an ideal backup, they also got a 2nd and part of the salary was consumed by the Leafs. When you factor in Bernier also played three seasons and parts of two others with the Kings it's hard to say LA didn't get value for the pick they used on Bernier.

I think the return was marginal for a #1 netminder + 5 years of development and just 62 NHL games as King.

If he wasnt playing for such a horrible team like Toronto, he would have insane #.

If you look at the big picture it was a great pick but this is another argument that you are better off to draft a defenseman or forward early on.

 

[damacles1156]

The vast majority of high end starters were picked in round 3 or later, even round 8 and being undrafted.

The draft is a crapshoot for forwards/defensemen, but even more for goalies. You already notice that teams draft goalies way later compared to the past. I believe Dallas was one of the last teams that drafted a goalie top 10 and that looks like to be a mistake again. Its late round 1 and round 2 and to me that's still a mistake. The odds to pick a good forward/defenseman is higher.

Besides, we have Bartosak and 5 more years of Quick.

22 out of 58 in the league right now, round one of two.

Of those 22, most are starters at the high-end (Lots of games+minutes).

The odds of any team landing a high end starter in net passed round two, are slim to none. How many Jonathan Quicks are in the league ? I'll give you a hint (One).

When was the last time you witnessed a goalie like Quick come out of the third round(other than Quick) ? Never in my entire life of watching hockey (20+ years).

 

[gnarls barkley]

do we have a great need for a top goalie prospect over anything else though? I was under the impression that Bartosak is the future for us in net.

 

[damacles1156]

do we have a great need for a top goalie prospect over anything else though? I was under the impression that Bartosak is the future for us in net.

If that were true, Alec Dillon would not have been selected. You pick BPA at the slot you're drafting. Sure you can get creative in the later rounds swing for the fences ETC.

But if Lombardi/Futa indeed want a high end prospect to develop at Goalie, odds are better (substantially) that they choose the guy in the first 60 picks.

Doesn't mean you can't land a great goalie in the later rounds, but you shouldn't bank on that at all.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

There was a post I believe earlier in this tread. 22 of 58 starters and backups were picked in round one or two. 10 more were undrafted. Just over 40% of all NHL goalies come from round three or later. Don't hold your breath getting a starter in the later round or even a back up.

Perhaps I am missing something ? IMO that should tell you something, but I have a feeling you think otherwise.

More than 45% of the NHL goalies come from round 3 or later, that's a lot.

Nobody is denying there are no good goalies available early on, but more good forwards/defensemen.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

22 out of 58 in the league right now, round one of two.

Of those 22, most are starters at the high-end (Lots of games+minutes).

The odds of any team landing a high end starter in net passed round two, are slim to none. How many Jonathan Quicks are in the league ? I'll give you a hint (One).

When was the last time you witnessed a goalie like Quick come out of the third round(other than Quick) ? Never in my entire life of watching hockey (20+ years).

What are you talking about ? There's Rinne, Bishop, Bobrovsky, Lundqvist, Holtby, Halak, all top goalies.

Using a playoff warrior as Quick as standard example is utter ****.

 

[damacles1156]

What are you talking about ? There's Rinne, there is Bishop, there is Bobrovsky, there is Lundqvist, there is Holtby.

Using Quick as standard example is utter ****.

Quick should be the standard of any future starter for the Kings.

Dean Lombardi "You don't appreciate stellar goalie play, until you don't have it".

Will be a sad day when Quick retires. Just continue to hope Lombardi/Futa draft and develop well.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

22 out of 58 in the league right now, round one of two.

Of those 22, most are starters at the high-end (Lots of games+minutes).

The odds of any team landing a high end starter in net passed round two, are slim to none. How many Jonathan Quicks are in the league ? I'll give you a hint (One).

When was the last time you witnessed a goalie like Quick come out of the third round(other than Quick) ? Never in my entire life of watching hockey (20+ years).

There are more goalies who were not drafted in the 1st round who are starters. That Patrick Roy guy had a pretty good career as a 3rd round pick. There are countless examples of extraordinary goalies who weren't drafted, more so than ones drafted in the 1st round who lived up to the hype.

 

[damacles1156]

There are more goalies who were not drafted in the 1st round who are starters. That Patrick Roy guy had a pretty good career as a 3rd round pick. There are countless examples of extraordinary goalies who weren't drafted, more so than ones drafted in the 1st round who lived up to the hype.

How many Patrick Roy's ? One

You can land a starter outside the top two rounds, no one said it's not possible, said it's unlikely. If you bank your franchise's future on that, well good luck.

We as Kings fan's should know better about not being serious when it come to addressing the Goalie position.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Your talking like this is an exact science here. You are passing on Bernier for Teubert simply because you don't believe goalies should be taken that high? No. Of course it can be Kopitar as well. You just don't know what you are getting in the draft. So you pick the best player available according to your scouts. Whether that be in net or not. I wouldn't be opposed to getting a Tomek or Samsonov in the 2nd. And I'm a huge Bartosak fan (future 1A/1B in NHL, IMO). But you need depth everywhere.

This isn't the NFL. You aren't drafting for now. You are drafting for 2-6 years down the road. Who knows how the players develop AND what your team will look like by then.

 

[kingsfan]

Perhaps I am missing something ? IMO that should tell you something, but I have a feeling you think otherwise.

More than 45% of the NHL goalies come from round 3 or later, that's a lot.

Nobody is denying there are no good goalies available early on, but more good forwards/defensemen.

Likely there are close to 45% of all forwards and D-men drafted third round or later as well, doesn't mean they are the good ones.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

do we have a great need for a top goalie prospect over anything else though? I was under the impression that Bartosak is the future for us in net.

I think he is, but it remains to be seen. Nothing wrong to pick one or two goalies later on, like Dillon.

Martin Jones another example, undrafted.

Played 30 games as back up already and we didnt waste a #11 pick on it.

 

[damacles1156]

Your talking like this is an exact science here. You are passing on Bernier for Teubert simply because you don't believe goalies should be taken that high? No. Of course it can be Kopitar as well. You just don't know what you are getting in the draft. So you pick the best player available according to your scouts. Whether that be in net or not. I wouldn't be opposed to getting a Tomek or Samsonov in the 2nd.

This isn't the NFL. You aren't drafting for now. You are drafting for 2-6 years down the road. Who knows how the players develop AND what your team will look like by then.

I agree it's BPA , and you hope your development staff works out the kinks.

You just never know, All I am saying is no team should bank on "Hey I can land a starter in Net in the later rounds".

 

[kingsfan]

There are more goalies who were not drafted in the 1st round who are starters. That Patrick Roy guy had a pretty good career as a 3rd round pick. There are countless examples of extraordinary goalies who weren't drafted, more so than ones drafted in the 1st round who lived up to the hype.

You can get a Pavel Datsyuk in round six as well if you want to cherry pick result. There will always be an Alexandre Daigle coming out of the first pick overall at times just like you'll get a Pekka Rinne so low its unfathomable. Its the draft. You are looking at 18 year old kids. Naturally some guys will fall well below where they should have. Point is the majority of top talent comes from the 1st or second round of all drafted players, that goos for goalies as it does for all positions.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I think he is, but it remains to be seen. Nothing wrong to pick one or two goalies later on, like Dillon.

Martin Jones another example, undrafted.

Played 30 games as back up already and we didnt waste a #11 pick on it.

We just signed Muzzin as a UFA after Pittsburgh failed to sign him. Glad we didn't waste a pick on him, I think we'll just refuse to draft defensemen now and wait for the guys other teams don't sign.

I agree it's BPA , and you hope your development staff works out the kinks.

You just never know, All I am saying is no team should bank on "Hey I can land a starter in Net in the later rounds".

Agreed, I wasn't talking about you haha.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

How many Patrick Roy's ? One

You can land a starter outside the top two rounds, no one said it's not possible, said it's unlikely. If you bank your franchise's future on that, well good luck.

We as Kings fan's should know better about not being serious when it come to addressing the Goalie position.

You made it sound like Quick is the only noteworthy goalie taken outside of the top two rounds in your previous post.

How'd Jamie Storr and Christopher Gibson turn out? There's no proven track record of finding a starter in any round, it's usually going to be someone who isn't rushed into the big stage and comes in with no pressure that can shine, which happened with a guy like Hammond. Hell, Eddie Belfour was undrafted.

Picking a goalie early doesn't guarantee jack****. Which is why it's rare to see goalies taken early. Price worked out, but then look at a guy like Montoya or Jack Campbell, who are destined to be journeymen backups.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

We just signed Muzzin as a UFA after Pittsburgh failed to sign him. Glad we didn't waste a pick on him, I think we'll just refuse to draft defensemen now and wait for the guys other teams don't sign.

Thats taking the whole thing out of context.

You wont find many trades involving a team who trades a #1-2 defenseman because there is no room on the roster and the player wants to play. That's what happened with Bernier and there's only one starters spot.

We will eventually get that problem again, with Jones.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

You made it sound like Quick is the only noteworthy goalie taken outside of the top two rounds in your previous post.

How'd Jamie Storr and Christopher Gibson turn out? There's no proven track record of finding a starter in any round, it's usually going to be someone who isn't rushed into the big stage and comes in with no pressure that can shine, which happened with a guy like Hammond. Hell, Eddie Belfour was undrafted.

Picking a goalie early doesn't guarantee jack****. Which is why it's rare to see goalies taken early. Price worked out, but then look at a guy like Montoya or Jack Campbell, who are destined to be journeymen backups.

No proven record obviously since it's the draft. But the higher picks generally turn out the best. The ratio for goaltending is a little less consistent, which is why goalies don't go top 10 and rarely top 20 nowadays, but it still does hold to a degree. And to start making blanket statements about not taking a goalie at a spot just because of the round makes zero sense whatsoever. Trust your scouts to go BPA.

Also, Hammond is going to suck hard next year. He was a below average AHL goalie that benefitted from one hot streak. Goalie numbers go up and down quite a lot. He'll be crashing and burning next year and Ottawa is going to kick themselves for trading Lehner or Anderson. But OT.

 

[damacles1156]

I think Ottawa trading Lehner would be a huge mistake

 

[LAKings88]

No proven record obviously since it's the draft. But the higher picks generally turn out the best. The ratio for goaltending is a little less consistent, which is why goalies don't go top 10 and rarely top 20 nowadays, but it still does hold to a degree. And to start making blanket statements about not taking a goalie at a spot just because of the round makes zero sense whatsoever. Trust your scouts to go BPA.

Also, Hammond is going to suck hard next year. He was a below average AHL goalie that benefitted from one hot streak. Goalie numbers go up and down quite a lot. He'll be crashing and burning next year and Ottawa is going to kick themselves for trading Lehner or Anderson. But OT.

I can see Anderson being moved. Lehner might have more value tho.

 

[kingsfan]

You made it sound like Quick is the only noteworthy goalie taken outside of the top two rounds in your previous post.

How'd Jamie Storr and Christopher Gibson turn out? There's no proven track record of finding a starter in any round, it's usually going to be someone who isn't rushed into the big stage and comes in with no pressure that can shine, which happened with a guy like Hammond. Hell, Eddie Belfour was undrafted.

Picking a goalie early doesn't guarantee jack****. Which is why it's rare to see goalies taken early. Price worked out, but then look at a guy like Montoya or Jack Campbell, who are destined to be journeymen backups.

No pick in any draft in NHL history guarantees you anything short of a Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid. You can cherrypick examples all you want, yes Storr sucked. Carey Price was great. It's just like Teubert sucked by Tyler Myers was great and Dustin Brown was pretty damn good while Hugh Jessiman was a collasal waste of a pick.

If you start getting the mentality of never drafting a goalie in round one or two because they could bust then you are statistically eliminating over half of all goaltenders who were drafted that played as a starter or backup in the NHL last year. That's just foolish.

 

[kingsfan]

At best, Hammond is Patrick Lalime. And that's only if the stars align and BWH starts shooting pixie dust from his *******.

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm a lot more wary of taking goalies in the top two rounds due to the volatility of the position.

If a forward in the first round fails to meet expectations, he may still be serviceable in a lesser role and play. Like be a third or fourth liner instead of a first or second liner. Or be a defensive specialist.

When a goalie doesn't pan out, he's a backup at best and will only play a chunk of games, and no other niche can be carved out.

Obviously you can't depend on mid picks working out either, but you should be 110% convinced on a goalie if you're going to use that value on him. And considering these are 18 year-olds, that's a dangerous game.