OT: 2015 Draft picks updates - II

[Ice Nine]

You nail it. When a poster tells "x" prospect is underacheiving right now, the fans legion of white knight come and tell more or less what you said: points are not every thing !! Well of course they are not everything, they're only an indicators, the #1 indicator in fact, but not everything.

Exactly.

 

[Montecristo]

Twelve posts later, you finally arrive at a (somewhat) substantive response.

Slow clap.

I think on draft day, Zboril was the consensus better D. Today, I'm not sure.

I think points don't mean "everything", but as Dr. Quincy has aptly argued, they're an important indicator at this stage, especially for high upside D prospects.

Last season, Zboril had to adjust to being tasked with a more defensive deployment than his previous season, and it obviously reflected in his weaker offensive output. You could argue that last year, Zboril had a heavier D role, thus explaining his weaker offensive production. But Chabot was also deployed in all situations. And played on the second penalty kill unit for the Sea Dogs (he had a short handed goal, for example, while Zboril did not).

To me, the difference became apparent in watching both at the World Juniors. Chabot had a breakout performance, with 3 pts in 5 games, and played as Canada's top pairing (beside Joe Hicketts). He was deployed in all situations and played a big role in carrying Canada as far as they went. Zboril simply wasn't nearly as impressive in the tournament, and in the games I watched, sometimes seemed unfocused/disinterested, and would disappear for large stretches.

This year, both Zboril and Chabot are playing heavy minutes and are also getting power play time (5 of Zboril's 6 goals came on PP, while all 3 of Chabot's); in these top D roles, Chabot is simply out-producing Zboril, which is important if we want to project which might be a #1 or 2 D long term in the NHL, which is was my original point.

And yes, while Chabot only played a single game, he was still assessed good enough to retain for the entire pre-season and then start the season as a 7th Defenceman through a long Senator road trip at the beginning of the season. You could argue that had Ottawa been stronger defensively, he may have had more of a chance. Zboril, by contrast, was sent down after only 4 pre-season games. That's unlike Debrusk who received an extended look in pre-season.

To me, this and Chabot's better stats are just a reflection of the stronger performances I saw at World Juniors.

I would have mentioned all this in my original post had I known I'd have to defend myself against multiple laughable caricatures of my modest point about comparing point production at the Q level for high end D prospects who literally play on the same team.

I could have also simply responded with a similar dismissive response "because points are irrelevant, especially to high end D prospects". But I didn't because I'm a nice guy who takes your posts seriously.

I think I generally agree that chabot looks to be the better prospect right now however I also watched the wjc last year and your assessment of zboril was way off what I saw. I thought he was the Czech Republic's best player throughout the tourney. The only reliable defenseman on a dismal team. Chabot may have scored points for a Stacked canadien squad but put him on Czech and I doubt his offensive output would have been the same.

If we were comparing the 2 I'd say chabot has the edge in speed, vision iq and shot. Zboril has the harder shot but doesn't use it as effectively as chabot does, he's a stronger skater, he's more physical, and his defensive awareness is probably sharper. I still give the edge to chabot but it wouldn't surprise me if chabot turns into a smaller version of Doug Hamilton when zboril turns into nick hjalmarrsson.

 

[Ice Nine]

I think I generally agree that chabot looks to be the better prospect right now however I also watched the wjc last year and your assessment of zboril was way off what I saw. I thought he was the Czech Republic's best player throughout the tourney. The only reliable defenseman on a dismal team. Chabot may have scored points for a Stacked canadien squad but put him on Czech and I doubt his offensive output would have been the same.

If we were comparing the 2 I'd say chabot has the edge in speed, vision iq and shot. Zboril has the harder shot but doesn't use it as effectively as chabot does, he's a stronger skater, he's more physical, and his defensive awareness is probably sharper. I still give the edge to chabot but it wouldn't surprise me if chabot turns into a smaller version of Doug Hamilton when zboril turns into nick hjalmarrsson.

These are fair points; I guess I just didn't see what you saw in Zboril's WJC performance. On Chabot, you could be right re Hamilton, who knows, but I think he's shown both at WJC and over the last two years with the Sea Dogs he's more than a one dimensional D with an offensive game; he's now employed in all situations, and his zone exits very very good.

 

[Dr Quincy]

You looked at PIMs for Chabot

45 vs 20 in a situation where Zboril was forced into a defensive role. If that gap was actually that big (4:1) I would absolutely agree with you.

My mistake.. thanks for catching that.

But yeah, I still stand by that 20 pts in the Q in a draft +1 year is not a good sign. Now perhaps there were injuries hampering him last year, but guys with comparable +1 seasons are not an optimistic lot.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Yeah, I saw JFK after the fact and acknowledged it.

Fraser and DeBrusk are not alike in skating at all and DeBrusk is a much better all around player than Fraser was. Fraser's skating was a minus and if he wasn't scoring, he was of zero use to a team, unlike JD. If you are going to compare two players, at least take the time to look at them a little bit and not just throw **** out there and see if it sticks.

Not that I disagree with you but honestly wondering, what does else Debrusk? Didn't get a chance to watch many Swift Current games.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Not that I disagree with you but honestly wondering, what does else Debrusk? Didn't get a chance to watch many Swift Current games.

I've been watching Jake DeBrusk since his bantam days. Up through midget, on to Swift Current and with Red Deer in his Memorial Cup.

What you are getting with Jake is a smart hockey player who doesn't cheat the game. His best attribute, in my opinion, is not just his ability to read the play at full speed, but to make plays at full speed as well. That, and his character. He's got a good head on his shoulder and he's a natural leader.

His points are a bit of a straw man, in that when he played for Mark Lamb during his draft year in Swift Current he played on a shallow team that lacked depth so he got leaned on for close to 30 minutes a game and with the benefit of playing alongside 20 year old vets (Colby Cave and Coda Gordon). 20 year olds are supposed to dominate junior hockey and those two, along with Jake, did just that. All 3 were point-per-game players and it dropped significantly after that. He also benefits from the late birthday, as I'm not sure where he drafts had he been born 32 days earlier ... likely a mid-to-late round pick if he drafts with other 1996 born players in 2014.

In his 19 year old season Mark Lamb leaned on him even harder, and actually had him playing on lines 1 and 3 for Swift Current, dressing 11 forwards so he could double shift Jake. Credit Jake for being up for that challenge and also for stepping on a team that was even less deep than his draft year. The Broncos were pretty much down to 3 effective forwards that season in Jake, Glenn Gawdin and 20 year old Jon Martin. They had nothing after that, so Jake was really leaned on and he responded very well I thought. Right up until he took a Joe Hicketts slap shot right in the nuts and full credit to Jake for stepping in there and blocking the shot.

His recovery was full and he found himself on the Memorial Cup host Rebels in a very different situation. His ice time was slashed by about 40% as Brent Sutter was focussed on building a 4 line team to compete in a Memorial Cup he was hosting. He could afford to take losses for the sake of development, which I believe he did. He could've leaned on guys like Adam Helewka and Jake and Ivan Nikolishin more and probably picked up a few more W's, but as I said, Sutter was content developing a 4-line team and trying to win low scoring games with good team defense. Again I credit Jake with buying in fully and adapting to a different role for a different coach. And by the way, even with the reduction in ice time, Jake still managed a point-per-game in his 19 year old season in Red Deer.

I do believe Jake's hockey pedigree is an asset and combined with his reasonable skill sets, his considerable leadership capabilities and a high hockey IQ make him a strong candidate to be a successful professional hockey player. He may end up being more of a Chris Kelly type than anything else, but he can play the game, he's not going to hurt you on the ice and he's a guy you definitely want in your room.

I've seen him play over a hundred games - half of those live. I know many of the players and families of the players he's played with and I know some of his old coaches personally and that's my take on it. He's a keeper, and if he ends up a 4th line guy, which is highly possible, I think he'll be a valuable 4th line guy both on and off the ice.

 

[dup7]

Awesome report, thanks. What do you think his ceiling is?

 

[pierre gagnon*]

Great read Fonz on Jake, Im in his corner too. Senyshyn with a beauty tonight chased a puck down warded off the dee and slipped it threw the keepers legs. The guys we passed on are not exactly lighting anything on fire, one is back in junior

 

[finchster]

You nail it. When a poster tells "x" prospect is underacheiving right now, the fans legion of white knight come and tell more or less what you said: points are not every thing !! Well of course they are not everything, they're only an indicators, the #1 indicator in fact, but not everything.

I will illustrate this point a little further. I have made the assertion many times that when a player who plays in the CHL scores fewer points after their draft year, it's a really bad sign for their development as a prospect. I decided to look into this a little more in-depth.

I looked at forwards who played in the CHL and scored at least 40 points last season. This left me with 57 players.

#Players|after their draft year
19 |NHL
23| More goals and points
6 |Fewer goals or points but higher ppg gpg
2 |fewer goals and points (Spezza, Dubinsky, Ladd)
2 |Made NHL team, was sent back (Draisaitl, Reinhart)
1 |fewer goals and points but injured (Derick Brassard) (significant loss of season)
1 |More goals but fewer points (Carter)
1 |Fewer goals but more points (Domi)
1 |undrafted (Ward)
1 |drafted late (Palat)
1 |different jr league (Benn)

I don't consider this to be 100% accurate, as I researched it during a slow period at work . However ignoring points seems to be a huge mistake when faced with these numbers.

3 players scored fewer points after their draft year, but in the case of Spezza, he was traded a few times and still amongst the league leaders (2nd or 3rd??). For the purpose of accuracy, Draisaitl and Reinhart scored fewer points and had a lower GPG/PPG after being sent back. Derick Brassard played only 14 games due to a shoulder injury. Carter scored more goals but had fewer points (bad team) and Domi scored fewer goals but more points. Ladd and Dubinsky seem to be the only two that scored (significantly) fewer goals and points after being drafted and scored 40 or more points last season.

Now, we've all seen players score more points after the draft and bust. However, if you don't score more goals/points after the draft, the chances of you becoming a good top six forward in the NHL is greatly diminished.

 

[Estlin]

I've seen him play over a hundred games - half of those live. I know many of the players and families of the players he's played with and I know some of his old coaches personally and that's my take on it. He's a keeper, and if he ends up a 4th line guy, which is highly possible, I think he'll be a valuable 4th line guy both on and off the ice.

Thanks for this write-up. If Debrusk ends up as a fourth-line player, which you intimate at the end, would selecting him fourteenth overall in a deep 2015 draft be justified? I don't think so.

 

[Ice Nine]

I will illustrate this point a little further. I have made the assertion many times that when a player who plays in the CHL scores fewer points after their draft year, it's a really bad sign for their development as a prospect. I decided to look into this a little more in-depth.

I looked at forwards who played in the CHL and scored at least 40 points last season. This left me with 57 players.

#Players|after their draft year
19 |NHL
23| More goals and points
6 |Fewer goals or points but higher ppg gpg
2 |fewer goals and points (Spezza, Dubinsky, Ladd)
2 |Made NHL team, was sent back (Draisaitl, Reinhart)
1 |fewer goals and points but injured (Derick Brassard) (significant loss of season)
1 |More goals but fewer points (Carter)
1 |Fewer goals but more points (Domi)
1 |undrafted (Ward)
1 |drafted late (Palat)
1 |different jr league (Benn)

I don't consider this to be 100% accurate, as I researched it during a slow period at work . However ignoring points seems to be a huge mistake when faced with these numbers.

3 players scored fewer points after their draft year, but in the case of Spezza, he was traded a few times and still amongst the league leaders (2nd or 3rd??). For the purpose of accuracy, Draisaitl and Reinhart scored fewer points and had a lower GPG/PPG after being sent back. Derick Brassard played only 14 games due to a shoulder injury. Carter scored more goals but had fewer points (bad team) and Domi scored fewer goals but more points. Ladd and Dubinsky seem to be the only two that scored (significantly) fewer goals and points after being drafted and scored 40 or more points last season.

Now, we've all seen players score more points after the draft and bust. However, if you don't score more goals/points after the draft, the chances of you becoming a good top six forward in the NHL is greatly diminished.

Great stuff!

 

[Fonzerelli]

Awesome report, thanks. What do you think his ceiling is?

I think his ceiling is very much the same as Chris Kelly. A guy who brings more to the table than what he shows on the ice, but he holds his own on the ice as well. Likely a bottom 9 guy with the versatility to be a combination scoring winger or energy player depending on the depth in front of him. He's also a character guy who has no problem buying into a roll if it helps the team win. He's a late birthday kid likeKelly was, and they put up remarkably similar junior stats in their 17, 18 & 19 year old season. It was decided that Kelly would stay in the OHL for his 20 year old season, where Jake has started a bit early in Providence. After Kelly played his first 3 years pro in the AHL, he went on to post 7 consecutive seasons in the NHL of 30-40 points before fully embracing a 4th line roll in his last 4 years. I can see Jake following a similar trajectory.

Thanks for this write-up. If Debrusk ends up as a fourth-line player, which you intimate at the end, would selecting him fourteenth overall in a deep 2015 draft be justified? I don't think so.

I do think it's worth the pick. One thing about Jake you can't say about guys like Barzal and Connor is that Jakes a safe pick. Barzal might end being a home run. If not he's a swing and a miss. Jake is ground rule double at worst and still could clear the wall. If he ends up Chris Kelly like, as I expect he will, then a first round pick for a 13 year pro who delivers 7 season of 30-40 points in his prime seems like a pick well spent. To me anyways.

 

[BNHL]

I've been watching Jake DeBrusk since his bantam days. Up through midget, on to Swift Current and with Red Deer in his Memorial Cup.

What you are getting with Jake is a smart hockey player who doesn't cheat the game. His best attribute, in my opinion, is not just his ability to read the play at full speed, but to make plays at full speed as well. That, and his character. He's got a good head on his shoulder and he's a natural leader.

His points are a bit of a straw man, in that when he played for Mark Lamb during his draft year in Swift Current he played on a shallow team that lacked depth so he got leaned on for close to 30 minutes a game and with the benefit of playing alongside 20 year old vets (Colby Cave and Coda Gordon). 20 year olds are supposed to dominate junior hockey and those two, along with Jake, did just that. All 3 were point-per-game players and it dropped significantly after that. He also benefits from the late birthday, as I'm not sure where he drafts had he been born 32 days earlier ... likely a mid-to-late round pick if he drafts with other 1996 born players in 2014.

In his 19 year old season Mark Lamb leaned on him even harder, and actually had him playing on lines 1 and 3 for Swift Current, dressing 11 forwards so he could double shift Jake. Credit Jake for being up for that challenge and also for stepping on a team that was even less deep than his draft year. The Broncos were pretty much down to 3 effective forwards that season in Jake, Glenn Gawdin and 20 year old Jon Martin. They had nothing after that, so Jake was really leaned on and he responded very well I thought. Right up until he took a Joe Hicketts slap shot right in the nuts and full credit to Jake for stepping in there and blocking the shot.

His recovery was full and he found himself on the Memorial Cup host Rebels in a very different situation. His ice time was slashed by about 40% as Brent Sutter was focussed on building a 4 line team to compete in a Memorial Cup he was hosting. He could afford to take losses for the sake of development, which I believe he did. He could've leaned on guys like Adam Helewka and Jake and Ivan Nikolishin more and probably picked up a few more W's, but as I said, Sutter was content developing a 4-line team and trying to win low scoring games with good team defense. Again I credit Jake with buying in fully and adapting to a different role for a different coach. And by the way, even with the reduction in ice time, Jake still managed a point-per-game in his 19 year old season in Red Deer.

I do believe Jake's hockey pedigree is an asset and combined with his reasonable skill sets, his considerable leadership capabilities and a high hockey IQ make him a strong candidate to be a successful professional hockey player. He may end up being more of a Chris Kelly type than anything else, but he can play the game, he's not going to hurt you on the ice and he's a guy you definitely want in your room.

I've seen him play over a hundred games - half of those live. I know many of the players and families of the players he's played with and I know some of his old coaches personally and that's my take on it. He's a keeper, and if he ends up a 4th line guy, which is highly possible, I think he'll be a valuable 4th line guy both on and off the ice.

Great post. Disappointing if he ends up as Chris Kelly. I don't think they would draft him there if their projection at the time was a 3rd or 4th liner. 40 points in this league is a 2nd/3rd liner so......

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Not that I disagree with you but honestly wondering, what does else Debrusk? Didn't get a chance to watch many Swift Current games.

Don't think I can expand on Fonz's post. I have seen DeBrusk far less than he has, basing my opinion of him on video, Dev Camp and Memorial Cup play.

I have to say that I have higher expectations for him than he does. Think (at the least) he turns out to be a very good 3 zone top 9 player that would be equally at home on PP or PK.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

You nail it. When a poster tells "x" prospect is underacheiving right now, the fans legion of white knight come and tell more or less what you said: points are not every thing !! Well of course they are not everything, they're only an indicators, the #1 indicator in fact, but not everything.

I think there far more posters here who make snap judgements based on small samples sizes and stats only than there are a "legion" of defenders,

 

[Fonzerelli]

Great post. Disappointing if he ends up as Chris Kelly. I don't think they would draft him there if their projection at the time was a 3rd or 4th liner. 40 points in this league is a 2nd/3rd liner so......

Thinking of Chris Kelly now maybe, but think about a young Chris Kelly, just starting out with all his prime years in front of him. 13 contributing years with 7 really productive years is pretty sweet. If all first round picks in the 11-30 range panned out like that GM's would be happy. Most of them won't realize that success.

I agree 40 points is 2nd/3rd line, 30 is solid 3rd and 20-30 is 3rd/4th, and Jake could fall anywhere in that range, which is why I see him as a bottom 9 guy, with the versatility to play up and down those lines. Don't think he'll ever be a top line winger and not sure he'll be a consistant 2nd liner, but I could see him playing up and down the 2nd-4th lines and being able to his job in any of those spots.

 

[BNHL]

Thinking of Chris Kelly now maybe, but think about a young Chris Kelly, just starting out with all his prime years in front of him. 13 contributing years with 7 really productive years is pretty sweet. If all first round picks in the 11-30 range panned out like that GM's would be happy. Most of them won't realize that success.

I agree 40 points is 2nd/3rd line, 30 is solid 3rd and 20-30 is 3rd/4th, and Jake could fall anywhere in that range, which is why I see him as a bottom 9 guy, with the versatility to play up and down those lines. Don't think he'll ever be a top line winger and not sure he'll be a consistant 2nd liner, but I could see him playing up and down the 2nd-4th lines and being able to his job in any of those spots.

I just imagine that teams with 1st round picks are hoping for 1st and 2nd line wingers or defensive pairings. If DeBrusk ends up as Chris Kelly,I think that's okay,but it doesn't satisfy the hope.

 

[Ice Nine]

I think there far more posters here who make snap judgements based on small samples sizes and stats only than there are a "legion" of defenders,

I'm not so sure about that, I think there are plenty of posters in both camps.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Don't think I can expand on Fonz's post. I have seen DeBrusk far less than he has, basing my opinion of him on video, Dev Camp and Memorial Cup play.

I have to say that I have higher expectations for him than he does. Think (at the least) he turns out to be a very good 3 zone top 9 player that would be equally at home on PP or PK.

Sounds like Fonz has seen a lot of him so I totally trust his opinion but I guess part of what I was getting at is that what we think of Fraser based on his time in the NHL wasn't accurate before that.

What I mean is this: if we think that Debrusk will add toughness and grit.... guess what- Fraser was more of a tough guy in the WHL than Debrusk was. And if we say Debrusk can play D and on the PK.. guess what- Fraser's 1st year in the AHL he played a lot on the PK and was tied for 5th in SHG and was the 2nd leading rookie in SHG.

So yeah while he didn't seem to do much of anything in the NHL, there was a track record of having another dimension or 2 in lower leagues.. which I think suggests that it's pretty hard to know what parts of a player's skill set will translate to the NHL and which won't.

 

[pemulis]

I will illustrate this point a little further. I have made the assertion many times that when a player who plays in the CHL scores fewer points after their draft year, it's a really bad sign for their development as a prospect. I decided to look into this a little more in-depth.

I looked at forwards who played in the CHL and scored at least 40 points last season. This left me with 57 players.

#Players|after their draft year
19 |NHL
23| More goals and points
6 |Fewer goals or points but higher ppg gpg
2 |fewer goals and points (Spezza, Dubinsky, Ladd)
2 |Made NHL team, was sent back (Draisaitl, Reinhart)
1 |fewer goals and points but injured (Derick Brassard) (significant loss of season)
1 |More goals but fewer points (Carter)
1 |Fewer goals but more points (Domi)
1 |undrafted (Ward)
1 |drafted late (Palat)
1 |different jr league (Benn)

I don't consider this to be 100% accurate, as I researched it during a slow period at work . However ignoring points seems to be a huge mistake when faced with these numbers.

3 players scored fewer points after their draft year, but in the case of Spezza, he was traded a few times and still amongst the league leaders (2nd or 3rd??). For the purpose of accuracy, Draisaitl and Reinhart scored fewer points and had a lower GPG/PPG after being sent back. Derick Brassard played only 14 games due to a shoulder injury. Carter scored more goals but had fewer points (bad team) and Domi scored fewer goals but more points. Ladd and Dubinsky seem to be the only two that scored (significantly) fewer goals and points after being drafted and scored 40 or more points last season.

Now, we've all seen players score more points after the draft and bust. However, if you don't score more goals/points after the draft, the chances of you becoming a good top six forward in the NHL is greatly diminished.

Great work Finchster. But I think the conversation was about D-men in particular and started out as a "is Chabot better than Zboril" because of the point differentiation in the Draft +1 season. I think that answer is less clear due to usage, pp time, zone starts, and forward opponents etc. I definitely don't have the answer but I don't think anyone really knows (although, someone posted that there was some research done on this). Personally, I'll take the dude that plays sound position, shows nastiness, can retrieve the puck effortlessly, can make killer outlet passes, and has a wicked shot.

 

[Ice Nine]

I've been watching Jake DeBrusk since his bantam days. Up through midget, on to Swift Current and with Red Deer in his Memorial Cup.

What you are getting with Jake is a smart hockey player who doesn't cheat the game. His best attribute, in my opinion, is not just his ability to read the play at full speed, but to make plays at full speed as well. That, and his character. He's got a good head on his shoulder and he's a natural leader.

His points are a bit of a straw man, in that when he played for Mark Lamb during his draft year in Swift Current he played on a shallow team that lacked depth so he got leaned on for close to 30 minutes a game and with the benefit of playing alongside 20 year old vets (Colby Cave and Coda Gordon). 20 year olds are supposed to dominate junior hockey and those two, along with Jake, did just that. All 3 were point-per-game players and it dropped significantly after that. He also benefits from the late birthday, as I'm not sure where he drafts had he been born 32 days earlier ... likely a mid-to-late round pick if he drafts with other 1996 born players in 2014.

In his 19 year old season Mark Lamb leaned on him even harder, and actually had him playing on lines 1 and 3 for Swift Current, dressing 11 forwards so he could double shift Jake. Credit Jake for being up for that challenge and also for stepping on a team that was even less deep than his draft year. The Broncos were pretty much down to 3 effective forwards that season in Jake, Glenn Gawdin and 20 year old Jon Martin. They had nothing after that, so Jake was really leaned on and he responded very well I thought. Right up until he took a Joe Hicketts slap shot right in the nuts and full credit to Jake for stepping in there and blocking the shot.

His recovery was full and he found himself on the Memorial Cup host Rebels in a very different situation. His ice time was slashed by about 40% as Brent Sutter was focussed on building a 4 line team to compete in a Memorial Cup he was hosting. He could afford to take losses for the sake of development, which I believe he did. He could've leaned on guys like Adam Helewka and Jake and Ivan Nikolishin more and probably picked up a few more W's, but as I said, Sutter was content developing a 4-line team and trying to win low scoring games with good team defense. Again I credit Jake with buying in fully and adapting to a different role for a different coach. And by the way, even with the reduction in ice time, Jake still managed a point-per-game in his 19 year old season in Red Deer.

I do believe Jake's hockey pedigree is an asset and combined with his reasonable skill sets, his considerable leadership capabilities and a high hockey IQ make him a strong candidate to be a successful professional hockey player. He may end up being more of a Chris Kelly type than anything else, but he can play the game, he's not going to hurt you on the ice and he's a guy you definitely want in your room.

I've seen him play over a hundred games - half of those live. I know many of the players and families of the players he's played with and I know some of his old coaches personally and that's my take on it. He's a keeper, and if he ends up a 4th line guy, which is highly possible, I think he'll be a valuable 4th line guy both on and off the ice.

Great post, dude. Nice in-depth take on Debrusk. I haven't seen him enough to make my own assessment like this-- though I'm a little alarmed if you're right about his upside being Chris Kelly.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Great work Finchster. But I think the conversation was about D-men in particular and started out as a "is Chabot better than Zboril" because of the point differentiation in the Draft +1 season. I think that answer is less clear due to usage, pp time, zone starts, and forward opponents etc. I definitely don't have the answer but I don't think anyone really knows (although, someone posted that there was some research done on this). Personally, I'll take the dude that plays sound position, shows nastiness, can retrieve the puck effortlessly, can make killer outlet passes, and has a wicked shot.

This isn't the study I remember reading, but it's pretty close to the same and makes the same point: http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html

Some key take aways:

"This tells me that while scoring in junior doesn't guarantee NHL success, not scoring in junior more often than not predicts NHL failure"

"Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player."

"only 3 players in the last 15 years have scored at a lower rate(under .6 ppg) in their draft years and established themselves as NHL regulars: Mark Fistric, Tyler Myers, and Shea Weber. However, Fistric was never a big scorer and finds himself dangerously close to falling out of "NHL regular" status, while Weber and Myers grew into elite 19-year old scorers in their draft +2 seasons"

Now Zboril is an interesting case because he was 75% in his draft year, which is above the 60% threashold, but his Draft +1 year he was 40% which is below the threshold, and in a year which typically sees a guy's numbers go up.

As mentioned above, there are guys like Weber who are below the 60% mark in their draft year, but then explode in a later JR year. I'd be interested to see if the success rate of guys who were above the 60% mark in their draft year and then were sub that number in their draft +1.

The good news is that as it stands now he's playing at a ppg pace in his Draft +2, so perhaps last year was just a weird anomaly.

 

[finchster]

Great work Finchster. But I think the conversation was about D-men in particular and started out as a "is Chabot better than Zboril" because of the point differentiation in the Draft +1 season. I think that answer is less clear due to usage, pp time, zone starts, and forward opponents etc. I definitely don't have the answer but I don't think anyone really knows (although, someone posted that there was some research done on this). Personally, I'll take the dude that plays sound position, shows nastiness, can retrieve the puck effortlessly, can make killer outlet passes, and has a wicked shot.

Well I had stated a few times earlier that I am not excited for Jake Debrust due to his performance after his draft year. I also stated that scoring fewer points/goals after your draft year in the CHL is a big red flag. I wanted to have some evidence for this claim, it has nothing to do with Zboril.

 

[Ice Nine]

This isn't the study I remember reading, but it's pretty close to the same and makes the same point: http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html

Some key take aways:

"This tells me that while scoring in junior doesn't guarantee NHL success, not scoring in junior more often than not predicts NHL failure"

"Based on historical data, a CHL defenseman taken early in the draft with fewer than 0.6 Pts/GP in his draft year, like Scott Harrington or Dylan McIlrath or Colten Teubert, only has about a 1 in 10 chance of even making the NHL as a full-time player."

"only 3 players in the last 15 years have scored at a lower rate(under .6 ppg) in their draft years and established themselves as NHL regulars: Mark Fistric, Tyler Myers, and Shea Weber. However, Fistric was never a big scorer and finds himself dangerously close to falling out of "NHL regular" status, while Weber and Myers grew into elite 19-year old scorers in their draft +2 seasons"

Now Zboril is an interesting case because he was 75% in his draft year, which is above the 60% threashold, but his Draft +1 year he was 40% which is below the threshold, and in a year which typically sees a guy's numbers go up.

As mentioned above, there are guys like Weber who are below the 60% mark in their draft year, but then explode in a later JR year. I'd be interested to see if the success rate of guys who were above the 60% mark in their draft year and then were sub that number in their draft +1.

The good news is that as it stands now he's playing at a ppg pace in his Draft +2, so perhaps last year was just a weird anomaly.

Well I had stated a few times earlier that I am not excited for Jake Debrust due to his performance after his draft year. I also stated that scoring fewer points/goals after your draft year in the CHL is a big red flag. I wanted to have some evidence for this claim, it has nothing to do with Zboril.

Thanks for the study link, Doc. Great having both of you on this Board.

 

[pemulis]

Well I had stated a few times earlier that I am not excited for Jake Debrust due to his performance after his draft year. I also stated that scoring fewer points/goals after your draft year in the CHL is a big red flag. I wanted to have some evidence for this claim, it has nothing to do with Zboril.

Fair enough. I obviously missed that connection. Definitely worthy of discussion and could be, sadly, a good predictor for Debrusk.